El Nino 2023-2024

[snowman19]

[raindancewx]

Just about time for New Mexico to get more publicity once again. I'm hoping the movie shows Oppenheimer riding a horse on his ranch.

Anyway - there are a lot of videos popping up on Youtube with El Nino / winter ideas now.

I'm not convinced this is really going to be a basin-wide event in the way you guys mean it. You'll see Nino 1.2 warmth spread West. But it's not moving particularly fast. Just multiply the rate of change from June to July by four. By that point it's near December, and time is up. I expect the warmest waters to be around 120W, with some extension east and west.

The +PDO / El Nino Modoki and -PDO / La Nina Modoki events tend to go together. You can just about see the link visually on the month over month change below - the cold gaining off he West Coast connects with the Nino 4 (160E-150W) water holding off the Nino 3 gains (100-150W).

[griteater]

On 7/19/2023 at 7:19 PM, so_whats_happening said:

Ninos would be disrupted. I guess people dont like MEI? If we use this as a clue we have had less impactful ninos from 83 onward (at least super nino peaks have been lower over time) even with SST temps increasing considering 2015-16 had some of the highest 3.4 numbers. We still were impacted by the classic super nino state overall so it will take time for it to really show. As for ninas im not sure it makes them stronger. The only thing i could think of would be that ninas may become more frequent over time with a WPAC warm pool constantly being around. It's a shame it only goes to 1979 but gotta use what we have i guess.

There is an Extended version of the MEI which goes back to 1871

Extended Multivariate ENSO Index: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

MEI.ext timeseries from Dec/Jan 1871 through Nov/Dec 2005 (noaa.gov)

"Here we attempt to create a reliable ENSO index for much of the historical record by basing the extended Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI.ext) on the two main observed variables over the tropical Pacific that have been reconstructed by the Hadley Centre back to 1871.  These two variables are: sea-level pressure (P; details in Allan and Ansell, 2006), and sea surface temperature (S; details in Rayner et al., 2006)."

[griteater]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

The inferior CFS today suddenly has the MJO only getting to the circle (i.e., amplitude of 1.0) on top as opposed to above it, including in your post from Monday. Just yesterday and every day for the last 10+ days it also had it well into phases 5 and 6. Earlier this month, it had an amplitude as high as the low 2 range!

 Today's CFS MJO:

 

To compare, here's 7/11/23 CFS:

 

Loop of last 5 runs of the EPS shows a weakening trend of the westerly wind anomalies trying to kick out into the Equatorial Central Pacific.  

[griteater]

Same trend but for 7-day VP

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I saw something above about how strong Nino forcing would be for winter, and it does look like it peaks before Thanksgiving (1.761 is the highest 3 month dynamic mean off IRI, in SON).  Is it me, or is this Nino rather abrupt in its rise and fall?

[so_whats_happening]

27 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I saw something above about how strong Nino forcing would be for winter, and it does look like it peaks before Thanksgiving (1.761 is the highest 3 month dynamic mean off IRI, in SON).  Is it me, or is this Nino rather abrupt in its rise and fall?

Nothing seems too off from the development. It is like the little engine that could lol. I think the one surprising aspect was the March WWB event that doesn't happen very often and in such an isolated manner but each Nino/Nina will have an evolution that is unique to it. Typically we peak in Nino/Nina October or November, to peak before or after is probably more rare but does happen (early peak is probably the rarest occurrence). The longevity is another thing fun to watch, namely about the collapse of such events is always fun as some hold on while slowly cooling/warming and others in a matter of 2 months go neutral from the peak. 

Still like my idea from I think April/May that we peak near 1.7-1.8 trimonthly with maybe a blip of a month going up to 2.0C max (this is still a big maybe) with overall atmospheric conditions still probably in moderate Nino category. Of course we wait and see but with July probably ending around 1.1 average to get to above 2.0C would need some really pronounced Nino conditions to come about. Solid -SOI, maybe an actual WWB event that reverses more than just 1+2 and eastern 3, forcing to not be so held back, cooling of waters off Maritime continent just to name a few things.

The PDO does look to finally be getting knocked down a peg so maybe by fall it will be close to neutral?

We are definitely spreading the surface waters west now compared to the past month or so. Im curious what the subsurface water temps will look like in a month.

[Typhoon Tip]

I gotta say .. the Global Forecast System ( and I spell it out because it's not really the GFS operational model I'm mentioning here, per se - ) first picked up on the favorable, albeit anomalously early, MDR activity a month ago ... well over a week in advance.   It did so again over the last 10 days to two weeks, and now we have Don - which isn't really MDR, but there's also a Verdi Invest mid way.  

I just think that's worth a shout out.

OH... it would also help if I posted this in the right thread -

[snowman19]

[griteater]

The June 17th run of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology ENSO model predicted +1.8 for Nino 3.4, averaged for the month of July.  Yet here we are for July 1 to 21

[griteater]

I'd say 2 going themes with this El Nino over the past few months are: 1) The East Based nature of the event thus far, and 2) The models consistently over predicting westerly wind anomalies working east out into and past the dateline.  Plenty of time for that to change, but this is keeping Nino 3.4 SST anomalies in check at the moment, and no guarantees this doesn't continue to be an issue for big warming.

Here are the Euro Weekly runs from July 17 and July 21 (today).  Can see here the weakened signal for westerly wind anomalies (in yellow / orange) with these 2 runs as we close out July.

[griteater]

Here is the latest 30-day OLR/VP plot from JMA showing a sort of 2 wave or 4 cell pattern of -VP uplift extending from the dateline and back west to Indonesia, and also in the far E Pac / Atlantic....with +VP subsidence in E Africa / W Indian Ocean and C Pac.

 

 

In comparison, the same dates in 2015 show what a Super El Nino looks like...strong 1 wave / 2 cell pattern of +VP subsidence in the Eastern Hemisphere centered over the Indian Ocean and -VP uplift in the Western Hemisphere centered over the East Pacific

[snowman19]

I'd say 2 going themes with this El Nino over the past few months are: 1) The East Based nature of the event thus far, and 2) The models consistently over predicting westerly wind anomalies working east out into and past the dateline.  Plenty of time for that to change, but this is keeping Nino 3.4 SST anomalies in check at the moment, and no guarantees this doesn't continue to be an issue for big warming.
Here are the Euro Weekly runs from July 17 and July 21 (today).  Can see here the weakened signal for westerly wind anomalies (in yellow / orange) with these 2 runs as we close out July.

Up until “recently”, region 3 was the one used to measure the strength of an El Niño event. Some mets still use region 3 instead of 3.4 for that

[griteater]

This is from the Institute of the Sea of Peru ("summer of 2024" is our upcoming winter)...

 

July 21, 2023

The ENFEN Multisectoral Commission maintains the status of "Coastal El Niño Alert", as it is expected that coastal El Niño (Niño 1+2 region) will continue until the summer of 2024, as a consequence of the high probability of El Niño development in the central Pacific. The maximum monthly anomalous warming would be reached in July. For the remainder of the year, anomalous warm conditions would decrease from strong to moderate intensity. By summer 2024, the most likely magnitudes of coastal El Niño would be between weak (40%) and moderate (35%).

In the central Pacific (Niño 3.4 region), according to ENFEN's expert judgment, based on observed data, as well as forecasts derived from international climate models to date, anomalous warming is more likely to continue to increase within moderate condition until the end of the year.

By summer 2024, the most likely magnitude for El Niño in the central Pacific would be between weak (43%) and moderate (38%). It should be noted that, although long-term numerical models coincide in indicating the development of an El Niño event of strong magnitude (on average) by the end of the year, what has been observed to date only shows a slight coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere.

 

Official Communiqué ENFEN N° 11-2023 - Reports and publications - Instituto del Mar del Perú - Plataforma del Estado Peruano (www.gob.pe)

[snowman19]

Nino 3.4 will have trouble warming much past the current levels around +1 in the near term due to the much stronger trades and steadily cooling upper ocean heat content. This lack of WWBs in July is almost unheard of in El Niño years. So the chances of achieving +2 super El Niño status in 3.4 official trimonthly looks unlikely right now. This is the complete opposite of what we saw back in 2015.  Much stronger WWBs back then. Also upper ocean heat was closer to +2 instead of only +1 now. 
 


 



 
 

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

Anthony is correct since the WPAC warm pool is still warmer closer to +30C vs only 26-28C further east. This is why the forcing is leaning west. 
 

 

[snowman19]

Anthony is correct since the WPAC warm pool is still warmer closer to +30C vs only 26-28C further east. This is why the forcing is leaning west. 
 


 

Past events not withstanding, this one may stay east-based

[snowman19]

Yeah, it’s possible. But even +3s in Nino 1+2 are no match for the WPAC warm pool. The record SSTs near the Maritime Continent are shutting down the +IOD development. This has to be one of the biggest short term +IOD model misses.
New run

 
Old run
 

The IOD is going to go positive, but not to the extent that was being shown in June

[roardog]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

This is from the Institute of the Sea of Peru ("summer of 2024" is our upcoming winter)...

 

July 21, 2023

The ENFEN Multisectoral Commission maintains the status of "Coastal El Niño Alert", as it is expected that coastal El Niño (Niño 1+2 region) will continue until the summer of 2024, as a consequence of the high probability of El Niño development in the central Pacific. The maximum monthly anomalous warming would be reached in July. For the remainder of the year, anomalous warm conditions would decrease from strong to moderate intensity. By summer 2024, the most likely magnitudes of coastal El Niño would be between weak (40%) and moderate (35%).

In the central Pacific (Niño 3.4 region), according to ENFEN's expert judgment, based on observed data, as well as forecasts derived from international climate models to date, anomalous warming is more likely to continue to increase within moderate condition until the end of the year.

By summer 2024, the most likely magnitude for El Niño in the central Pacific would be between weak (43%) and moderate (38%). It should be noted that, although long-term numerical models coincide in indicating the development of an El Niño event of strong magnitude (on average) by the end of the year, what has been observed to date only shows a slight coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere.

 

Official Communiqué ENFEN N° 11-2023 - Reports and publications - Instituto del Mar del Perú - Plataforma del Estado Peruano (www.gob.pe)

Wow. They’re basically ruling out a strong Nino and saying the highest chance is for weak. Now that’s what I call going against the models and consensus. They may very well be wrong but it’s kind of refreshing to read something other than strongest El Niño ever twitter hype. 

[GaWx]

39 minutes ago, roardog said:

Wow. They’re basically ruling out a strong Nino and saying the highest chance is for weak. Now that’s what I call going against the models and consensus. They may very well be wrong but it’s kind of refreshing to read something other than strongest El Niño ever twitter hype. 

 They're saying that weak (43%) is more likely than moderate (38%) "by summer of 2024". That's after weakening from its fall/winter max, which would be moderate+.

[roardog]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 They're saying that weak (43%) is more likely than moderate (38%) "by summer of 2024". That's after weakening from its fall/winter max, which would be moderate+.

Wouldn’t summer of 2024 for them basically be late December this year when summer starts? So I took it as they’re saying weak has the highest chance by the start of their summer which would be late December. 

[GaWx]

55 minutes ago, roardog said:

Wouldn’t summer of 2024 for them basically be late December this year when summer starts? So I took it as they’re saying weak has the highest chance by the start of their summer which would be late December. 

1. Ooops, I misinterpreted that since they're in S Hem although them saying summer of 2024 instead of summer of 2023-4 threw me off, too. Thanks for pointing that out.

2. I looked at the report to better decipher what they're saying:

 https://cdn.www.gob.pe/uploads/document/file/4887650/Informe Tecnico ENFEN 20 JULIO 2023.pdf?v=1689981215 

 I looked at tables 8 and 10 along with figure 41. They have in table 8 moderate as being most likely by a good margin Sept-Dec with 65-61% chances with weak at only 10-21%. So, they're saying the best chance by a good margin is for Sept-Dec to have a moderate peak. 

 But then table 10 shows weak favored over moderate for DJFM averaged out 43% to 38%.

 So, I'd say we're both right. They are calling for a moderate peak most likely for fall/early winter peak. But after that period when looking at the average for DJFM, alone, they're saying there's a slightly higher chance (43% vs 38%) for it to weaken to weak rather than maintain moderate.

 So, they are going against the model consensus in saying a moderate rather than strong+ peak. That's significant. And they're calling for a rapid enough weakening starting by Jan to allow DJFM to have a slightly better chance to average only weak.

[bluewave]

The CFS was the only seasonal model to get the westward lean on the forcing correct this month. The Euro had stronger EPAC forcing which never verified. The CFS holds the forcing west into the early winter. 
 

http://seasonal.meteo.fr/content/PS-previ-cartes?language=en

 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The CFS was the only seasonal model to get the westward lean on the forcing correct this month. The Euro had stronger EPAC forcing which never verified. The CFS holds the forcing west into the early winter. 
 

http://seasonal.meteo.fr/content/PS-previ-cartes?language=en

 

Speaking for the MA forum, that’s what we want (west lean forcing). We haven’t had a good track record with east based

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Up until “recently”, region 3 was the one used to measure the strength of an El Niño event. Some mets still use region 3 instead of 3.4 for that

I have never heard of this.

[snowman19]

I have never heard of this.

Years ago, region 3 was used instead of 3.4 to determine ENSO strength. Paul Roundy wrote about this on twitter back in April. I believe it was sometime in the 80’s? That 3.4 became the new metric

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have never heard of this.

Per this, Nino 3.4 wasn't focused on until 1997:

"Niño 3 (5N-5S, 150W-90W):  This region was once the primary focus for monitoring and predicting El Niño, but researchers later learned that the key region for coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions for ENSO lies further west (Trenberth, 1997).  Hence, the Niño 3.4 and ONI became favored for defining El Niño and La Niña events."

https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/nino-sst-indices-nino-12-3-34-4-oni-and-tni

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Now we have an area of -2 in the central-subsurface

https://ibb.co/qsv4Ytm

Remember, we had a wave here in the Winter/Spring that was +3-6 in the central region before Nino 1+2 and 3 warmed. 

Those who think this will develop significantly in Nino 3.4 just based on normal progression may be wrong... for the current time, it's out of fuel. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Years ago, region 3 was used instead of 3.4 to determine ENSO strength. Paul Roundy wrote about this on twitter back in April. I believe it was sometime in the 80’s? That 3.4 became the new metric

Well, I'm not sure which meteorologists still use it as such and why, since we now know 3.4 is most crucial for coupling.