El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CAPE said:

Stand by for a series of tweets featuring Paul Roundy wiping his rear with the 1925-1926 analog lol

[snowman19]

This post just stopped snowman19 from ever mentioning 1925 again. lol

I expect this trolling garbage from you. Par for the course. Anyway, I was well aware of how the 1925-26 winter turned out, I said it was a very good match for the ENSO evolution, as far as the AGW furnace background state we are in now, it’s not even remotely close. Completely and totally different climate state. Like not even in the ballpark

[40/70 Benchmark]

In all seriousness, that season seems redolent of some of the other stonger basin-wide events that were on the western edge of the forcing envelop...like 1957, 1965 and 1986.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I expect this trolling garbage from you. Par for the course. Anyway, I was well aware of how the 1925-26 winter turned out, I said it was a very good match for the ENSO evolution, as far as the AGW furnace background state we are in now, it’s not even remotely close. Completely and totally different climate state. Like not even in the ballpark

Yes, which is why you have to consider the west PAC furnace pulling the forcing further west....and again, a warmer climate means a milder outcome, not a completely different H5 evolution given a similar or further west forcing setup.  A replica season would wind up a couple of degrees warmer, sure...which could also mean more moisture for snowfall. Don't forget that the vast majority of global warming manifests during radiational cooling nights, which are dry periods.

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

#allabouttheforcing

this is why the seasonals showing the forcing more around 160-180W rather than 140-160W is so auspicious

1997-98 is an absolute trash analog right now unless every single seasonal is miles off... which is obviously very unlikely

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

this is why the seasonals showing the forcing more around 160-180W rather than 140-160W is so auspicious

Strong consensus and it make sense to me, regardless of whether the SST max ends up at 120 or 140W.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

1997-98 is an absolute trash analog right now unless every single seasonal is miles off... which is obviously very unlikely

Agree, but I am also confident that this isn't going to be a 2009 or 2002 modoki, either...there is a ceiling for this season in terms of snowfall, but I don't see it being an all-out disaster. Of course, those were my famous last words last fall, too, so I could be wrong....but only if the forcing ends up east of progged.

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In all seriousness, that season seems redolent of some of the other stonger basin-wide events that were on the western edge of the forcing envelop...like 1957, 1965 and 1986.

YES to 86-87. Very nice winter for the MA coastal plain. Back to back winter storms in mid/late Jan. The SB Sunday storm was awesome. And a paste bomb in Feb.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

YES to 86-87. Very nice winter for the MA coastal plain. Back to back winter storms in mid/late Jan. The SB Sunday storm was awesome. And a paste bomb in Feb.

While we would most likely lose the Feb 87 paste bomb were it to happen today in this climate, I would roll the dice with 86-87 any day. 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

While we would most likely lose the Feb 87 paste bomb were it to happen today in this climate, I would roll the dice with 86-87 any day. 

Here it would be mostly rain for sure. That was a 50 deg sunny day, but once the sun went down and heavy precip began, 32 deg start to finish. Perfect wet bulbing with dynamical/evap cooling combo. All heavy wet snow. Ended up with a foot. 10- 15 miles south it was mostly/all rain. 

[Terpeast]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Here it would be mostly rain for sure. That was a 50 deg sunny day, but once the sun went down and heavy precip began, 32 deg start to finish. Perfect wet bulbing with dynamical/evap cooling combo. All heavy wet snow. Ended up with a foot. 10- 15 miles south it was mostly/all rain. 

Yeah, such a small difference in temps would result in a drastically different outcome. As said in the MA subforum, I’m working on a project to clarify what we can expect in future winters by adjusting historical analogs to today’s climate. I still need to get it across the finish line, but my prelim hypothesis is that we’ll lose previous 32-33F storms to rain in new climate, while other (colder) storms would be even more juiced. 

Feb 87 is the biggest “loss” because it won’t take much to flip the whole thing to rain all the way to the mountains.

Otoh, pd1 79 and feb 83 would produce astounding totals if they happened today in a warmer climate. I’m talking widespread 30” with a 40”+ jackpot potentially

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The central-subsurface remains very weak for a Strong Nino in Nino 3.4 and 4.. 

(Remember, we recently had a +3 to +7 wave pass below all regions, and it's now ~+1.)

[raindancewx]

Here is how we look in July 2023 v. some other major events. I generally look for "red" in Nino 1.2 as a requirement for a good visual match.

July sort of looks like a 1972, 1991, 2009 mix to me. Sprinkled in 1997 and -1993 as well to fix some stuff -

Winter is about right conceptually - very warm Atlantic. 28C ish El Nino. -PDO. Some cold water relatively west of Australia and by India.

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Here is how we look in July 2023 v. some other major events. I generally look for "red" in Nino 1.2 as a requirement for a good visual match.

July sort of looks like a 1972, 1991, 2009 mix to me. Sprinkled in 1997 and -1993 as well to fix some stuff -

Winter is about right conceptually - very warm Atlantic. 28C ish El Nino. -PDO. Some cold water relatively west of Australia and by India.

1972 is definitely looking like an interesting year in comparison. If it wasn't for the cooler WPAC and inverse in the Atlantic AMO would be quite the fit for how this year is going. May I ask why you subtracted 93-94 (neutral year) maybe you meant 94-95?

I have yet to find a Nino that didn't have a cool pool at the surface in the western edge of the equatorial pacific already forming. This year is cooler but not in the negative departure yet. Typically we see the subsurface cool in some of the stronger events around now but there are a few instances that it occurs August after that is extremely rare to happen.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, Terpeast said:

While we would most likely lose the Feb 87 paste bomb were it to happen today in this climate, I would roll the dice with 86-87 any day. 

Tough to say...perhaps the furnace that is the atlantic these days promotes even more explosive cyclogenesis, which lowers heights more to compensate. I think the issue that continues to plague our general understanding of global warming and its impact as a society is that we continue to employ too linear of a thought process.

[snowman19]

this is why the seasonals showing the forcing more around 160-180W rather than 140-160W is so auspicious
1997-98 is an absolute trash analog right now unless every single seasonal is miles off... which is obviously very unlikely

It’s as much of a trash analog as 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 02-03 and 09-10 are. A certain someone tweets literally everyday about how great those analogs are. If anyone really believes that this Niño is turning into a Modoki, they are either totally delusional or on crack

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

1972 is definitely looking like an interesting year in comparison. If it wasn't for the cooler WPAC and inverse in the Atlantic AMO would be quite the fit for how this year is going. May I ask why you subtracted 93-94 (neutral year) maybe you meant 94-95?

I have yet to find a Nino that didn't have a cool pool at the surface in the western edge of the equatorial pacific already forming. This year is cooler but not in the negative departure yet. Typically we see the subsurface cool in some of the stronger events around now but there are a few instances that it occurs August after that is extremely rare to happen.

I asked him that the other day on twitter...if I remember correctly, he likes the absolute sst match within the ENSO region, despite 1993-1994 falling short of official el nino criteria. It is subtracted to "fix" the PDO, as it was positive that season and is negative this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s as much of a trash analog as 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 02-03 and 09-10 are. A certain someone tweets literally everyday about how great those analogs are. If anyone really believes that this Niño is turning into a Modoki, they are either totally delusional or on crack

I disagree regarding the bolded seasons...care to explain why? I agree that the other three are poor fits, as 1976 was very meager and 2002 and 2009 were modoki seasons.

Forcing looks to set up very similarly to the way it did in those other two basin-wide seasons, though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

[snowman19]

I disagree regarding the bolded seasons...care to explain why? I agree that the other three are poor fits, as 1976 was very meager and 2002 and 2009 were modoki seasons.
Forcing looks to set up very similarly to the way it did in those other two basin-wide seasons, though.

The ENSO (SST) configurations 57-58 and 65-66 looked Modoki by the start of winter. This one is extremely east-based right now

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The ENSO (SST) configurations 57-58 and 65-66 looked Modoki by the start of winter. This one is extremely east-based right now

First of all, we can agree to disagree on that, as I view it as more central based/basin-wide....I view modoki as heavily biased west of 150*W. Secondly, as I have said, you are too preoccupied with SSTs and not focusing enough on the convection, which is why the "east-based" analog of 1925-1926 ended up in the manner that it did.

[40/70 Benchmark]

These look modoki?

[snowman19]

First of all, we can agree to disagree on that, as I view it as more central based/basin-wide....I view modoki as heavily biased west of 150*W. Secondly, as I have said, you are too preoccupied with SSTs and not focusing enough on the convection, which is why the "east-based" analog of 1925-1926 ended up in the manner that it did.

I would wait until the beginning of November to reasonably predict where the main tropical convective forcing will be. I don’t care what the seasonal models show in July for D, J, F, M. The forcing may completely change by October/November

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I would wait until the beginning of November to reasonably predict where the main tropical convective forcing will be. I don’t care what the seasonal models show in July for D, J, F, M. The forcing may completely change by October/November

Yes, this is a totally fair point.

Agreed.

[roardog]

At least we have some decent -SOI readings now. I’m not sure whether or not that looks to continue though. Usually Gawx has a good idea on that. 

[so_whats_happening]

5 minutes ago, roardog said:

At least we have some decent -SOI readings now. I’m not sure whether or not that looks to continue though. Usually Gawx has a good idea on that. 

It should continue most of this week probably two decent spike or negative departures days with other days around -15 average. When it ends is still a bit out but euro cuts it off before the end of the month or at least takes it to neutral. Lets see what it can do.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tough to say...perhaps the furnace that is the atlantic these days promotes even more explosive cyclogenesis, which lowers heights more to compensate. I think the issue that continues to plague our general understanding of global warming and its impact as a society is that we continue to employ too linear of a thought process.

Agreed. The gold standard would be to re-run models with initializations going back to 1950 adjusted to today’s climate, and somehow not allow the models to not revert to the previous climate state. That way it incorporates all (well, most not all) non-linear processes, but that takes enormous resources that I and most of us don’t have. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

That's pretty cool about 72-73, that there was a very cold ENSO subsurface with that Winter. There is a 0-time-correlation there (subsurface and N. Pacific pattern), I've learned (That Winter was strong -PNA). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's pretty cool about 72-73, that there was a very cold ENSO subsurface with that Winter. There is a 0-time-correlation there (subsurface and N. Pacific pattern), I've learned (That Winter was strong -PNA). 

That season is a pretty good match in terms of where guidance place the forcing, too....maybe just a hair east that season.