snowman19 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Over just the last three days of 40 run means, the CFS forecasted OND 3.4 peak has risen from ~+1.97 to ~+2.07! Over just the last 11 days of 40 run means, that peak has risen from ~+1.75 to ~+2.07! What is going on here?It’s trending towards the Euro, no shock. Pretty good evidence now that we are very likely in a strong El Nino by the Equinox and most likely “super” (above +2.0C) by November/December. While I doubt a ‘97 or ‘15 style super peak, I think we very well may be somewhere in the neighborhood of +2.1C - +2.5C in region 3.4 for a final peak come December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Wow! The new POAMA run isn’t backing down, shows the El Nino peaking at +2.9C in December: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=NINO34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: Wow! The new POAMA run isn’t backing down, shows the El Nino peaking at +2.9C in December: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=NINO34 As the old saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 As the old saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me”I said yesterday, I don’t think it peaks THAT high, but I could absolutely see a super peak of +2.5C come December. My ballpark peak range is +2.1C - +2.5C. The latest Euro shows a super peak and the CFS is caving to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 “I am El Niño….” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 The latest OISST from Nino 3.4 is +1.1. The same week in 2016 was +1.4. 1997 came in at +1.4 also. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 10 hours ago, snowman19 said: Wow! The new POAMA run isn’t backing down, shows the El Nino peaking at +2.9C in December: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=NINO34 Yeah, it actually restrengthened 0.2C for its peak prediction vs the prior run. However, that higher predicted peak is still 0.3C lower than two runs ago. Also, July is going to end up another bust due to being way too warm. Two runs ago it had July at +1.8 and last run had it at +1.5. In addition, June ended up significantly cooler than its predictions. So, as @griteatersaid, "fool me twice..." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 I just simply don't have time to track down all of the models in the IRI ensemble individually, but I did happen to see the July run of NASA's GMAO S2S model and it too was a significant bump up in the peak. It went from 1.6 to 1.9 in the August/September timeframe. If that's going to verify we're going to need to see the warming going into hyperdrive especially since it shows July starting at 1.5 which seems to be out of the realm of possibility at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 North Pacific lows have been powering through. This is a few times now where the models showed more -PNA than verified, as we went with a GOA low or +PNA. This is the first time in ~3 years that I have seen this trend on models, over the course of a few months. We are 3/3 I think. Obviously, the Hadley Cell is still far north, but we wouldn't see this trend if it were La Nina. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 I just simply don't have time to track down all of the models in the IRI ensemble individually, but I did happen to see the July run of NASA's GMAO S2S model and it too was a significant bump up in the peak. It went from 1.6 to 1.9 in the August/September timeframe. If that's going to verify we're going to need to see the warming going into hyperdrive especially since it shows July starting at 1.5 which seems to be out of the realm of possibility at this point. IMO, We are into a strong Nino by astronomical fall. Are we +1.9C into a strong Nino? I don’t know, but I think we will be above the +1.5C threshold at that point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 From Weekly NOAA CPC MJO Update 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, griteater said: From Weekly NOAA CPC MJO Update only thing that really has this MJO pulse in earnest is the CFS. if it's correct, though, this would signal the transition to a more basin-wide Nino rather than the east-based configuration we have right now as 4 and 3.4 warm and 1+2 cools off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 It's interesting looking at the warm ENSO events here with very hot July weather following cool-ish June weather. Not real common. I reckon we finish the month at 94-98 degrees for the high, +2 to +6. July has very little variability here long-term, so persistence without rain is necessary for that level of heat. Year Jun/Jul/Aug 2003 88.4 / 96.7 / 90.3 1951 89.6 / 96.2 / 88.8 1979 89.1 / 96.1 / 90.9 1963 90.3 / 95.2 / 87.9 The four great warm ENSO heat waves tend to collapse here to near average in August. We'll see how that goes. Looks familiar? Those four years combined would be a pretty interesting winter blend. Just about everyone would be happy - heat, warmth, it's all there in different places at different times. But I don't buy the blend. I do think it's increasingly likely that both 2003-04, and 1951-52 are among the better winter analogs. Will probably combine those two with one or two strong El Ninos, and subtract out cold ENSO events with a +PDO to fix the PDO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 Phoenix is probably going to go 30+ days in a row above 110, breaking the old record of 18. I wouldn't micro-analyze.. The record warm Atlantic ocean, the jet stream is north right now. I think we are blessed here in the east having constant troughs so far this Summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 They added recently back to 1947 for subsurface data on the archive site I use. Now we can take a look at the subsurface for the years prior to 1979! https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 From Weekly NOAA CPC MJO UpdateGood point with the MJO. Looks like a healthy +IOD develops in a couple of weeks and continues through December. That will constructively interfere with the Nino and support continued strengthening and development over the next 5 months http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=IOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 12 hours ago, raindancewx said: It's interesting looking at the warm ENSO events here with very hot July weather following cool-ish June weather. Not real common. I reckon we finish the month at 94-98 degrees for the high, +2 to +6. July has very little variability here long-term, so persistence without rain is necessary for that level of heat. Year Jun/Jul/Aug 2003 88.4 / 96.7 / 90.3 1951 89.6 / 96.2 / 88.8 1979 89.1 / 96.1 / 90.9 1963 90.3 / 95.2 / 87.9 The four great warm ENSO heat waves tend to collapse here to near average in August. We'll see how that goes. Looks familiar? Those four years combined would be a pretty interesting winter blend. Just about everyone would be happy - heat, warmth, it's all there in different places at different times. But I don't buy the blend. I do think it's increasingly likely that both 2003-04, and 1951-52 are among the better winter analogs. Will probably combine those two with one or two strong El Ninos, and subtract out cold ENSO events with a +PDO to fix the PDO. Whopper of a snow event around here 12/5/03. January 2004 was probably the most brutally cold month that I can recall around here, but it was mainly dry. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 12 hours ago, snowman19 said: I certainly didn’t think this strong eastern warming would hang on like it has in the absence of robust westerly wind anomalies and warming arriving from the west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 I certainly didn’t think this strong eastern warming would hang on like it has in the absence of robust westerly wind anomalies and warming arriving from the west HM mentioned it last month, but this Nino is almost a carbon copy of the strong, extremely east-based Nino event that developed back in 1925. It’s a very good match actually ENSO wise, the current AGW background state not withstanding obviously 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 49 minutes ago, griteater said: I certainly didn’t think this strong eastern warming would hang on like it has in the absence of robust westerly wind anomalies and warming arriving from the west Weak OKWs breaking along the equatorial coast instead of more poleward certainly helping, as was the contribution from the EPac warm pool. Probably a mode that was more typical pre-satellite era, but we were used to the big WPac driven events. Perils of sample size, I suppose. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 36 minutes ago, snowman19 said: HM mentioned it last month, but this Nino is almost a carbon copy of the strong, extremely east-based Nino event that developed back in 1925. It’s a very good match actually ENSO wise, the current AGW background state not withstanding obviously 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This post just stopped snowman19 from ever mentioning 1925 again. lol 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: In Atlanta, Dec was pretty cold with slightly colder than an average Jan and a frigid blast plunging the coldest to 5F on the 28th, one of the coldest on record in Dec. Jan and Feb averaged pretty close to normal. The month that stood out anomalywise was March as it was the 4th coldest March on record. Although there were no big wintry precip events (not unusual in any winter) and BN wintry precip overall, each of Dec-Mar had at least a trace, fairly unusual for Atlanta as only ~1/6 of winters on record have experienced that. The heaviest was 0.4" (1/8/1926). At NYC, Feb of 1926 had 26.3" of snow, the 6th heaviest for Feb on record. That month had two big snowstorms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 1 hour ago, roardog said: This post just stopped snowman19 from ever mentioning 1925 again. lol LOL I honestly wasn't trying to be a jerk...just providing context. I would have posted if it was warm, but it just illustrated my point that its all about the forcing and not necessarily the SSTs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: LOL I honestly wasn't trying to be a jerk...just providing context. I would have posted if it was warm, but it just illustrated my point that its all about the forcing and not necessarily the SSTs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 1925-1926 featured average snowfall in Boston and above average snowfall from NYC through the mid atlantic...not a blockbuster, but a good season. This is actually about what I said that I expected....a colder version of 2015-2016. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: #allabouttheforcing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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