El Nino 2023-2024

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am thinking a cooler version of 2015, given that dl nino will be appreciably weaker...forcing should be in a similar locale.

While December 2015 is a tough act to follow, another winter in the upper 30s to around 40° in NYC could still be possible.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	50.8	0
2	2001	44.1	0
3	2021	43.8	0
4	1984	43.7	0
5	2006	43.6	0
6	2011	43.3	0
7	1998	43.1	0
8	1982	42.7	0
9	1990	42.6	0
10	1891	42.5	0

Top 20 warmest winters since 2011-2012 bolded

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2022-2023	41.0	0
-	2015-2016	41.0	0
3	2011-2012	40.5	0
4	1931-1932	40.1	0
5	1997-1998	39.6	0
6	2016-2017	39.3	0
7	2019-2020	39.2	0
8	1990-1991	39.1	0
9	1998-1999	38.6	0
10	1948-1949	38.5	0
11	1889-1890	38.4	0
12	1952-1953	38.1	0
13	1982-1983	37.9	0
-	1936-1937	37.9	0
14	1996-1997	37.8	0
-	1932-1933	37.8	0
15	1949-1950	37.6	2
16	1974-1975	37.5	0
-	1879-1880	37.5	2
17	1953-1954	37.4	0
18	2005-2006	37.3	0
19	1991-1992	37.2	0
-	1951-1952	37.2	2
20	2021-2022	37.1	0
-	1994-1995	37.1	0
-	1912-1913	37.1	0

[griteater]

6 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Maybe I'm missing something, but is this the expected OLR during an El Nino?

Out of interest we tend to scour thru the latest data with ENSO in here on a daily to weekly basis, but it is best to view ENSO's evolution on a multi-month basis (at least 2 months, but 3 to 4 months is better), particularly with OLR and VP data due to there being multiple elements that can affect the output (i.e. higher frequency elements like faster moving convectively coupled kelvin waves and the MJO <vs> the lower frequency impact of ENSO).  Below are some reanalysis maps of OLR comparing May-June data for this year with prior El Nino cases back to 1980.  I used OLR anomalies instead of OLR mean values.  Note: OLR and VP data are typically considered unreliable prior to 1980 due to the fact that it is measured via satellite data which lacked the needed global coverage and robust capabilities back then (that is my understanding anyway).

 

Here are the May-June OLR anomalies from the oncoming Super and Strong El Ninos since 1980.  Negative anomalies are present along the equator over much of the Pacific, centered strongest in the 150W to 110W region.  Positive anomalies are present over the Maritime Continent.  

 

 

Here are the May-June OLR anomalies from the oncoming Moderate El Ninos since 1980.  Negative anomalies are present along the equator over the West and Central Pacific, centered strongest in the 140W to 160W region.  Positive anomalies are present over the Maritime Continent. but on the S Hemisphere side, and in the East Pacific.

 

 

Lastly, here are the May-June OLR anomalies for this year.  Negative anomalies are present along the equator from the Maritime Continent to the Central Pacific.  Positive anomalies are present in the East Pacific.  So, in comparing this year with the prior year cases, we can see that the OLR is a bit farther west, especially compared to the prior Super Ninos.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

No one knows where the main forcing will be this winter or should be at this point, way, way too early for that. Maybe it will be further west, maybe it will be east. Look again in the fall

Absolutely correct...just my best estimate. 

[raindancewx]

The best part of not living in the South is when we have strong high pressure/heat in the Summer...we still have mountains. Big mountains. This was 7/9 when it was near 100 in ABQ. Angel Fire is 8,600 feet up -

I've not been terribly impressed with the high temperatures with the current ~600 decameter non-sense we get semi-often. But the lows have been a lot warmer than normal - mid and upper 70s. That actually is pretty rare here especially with dew points still mostly in the 30-50 range. We'd typically fall into the 60s even on a 100 degree day.

[raindancewx]

I've been experimenting with the incoherent PDO / ENSO set of winters. In other words:

(El Nino w/ -PDO) - (La Nina w/ +PDO). Just to see what it looks like. Still not many good matches. If you're a bit generous with "anti" PDO years. You get something like:

1951-52, 1953-54, 1963-64, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1994-95, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2018-19, 2019-20 for -PDO / El Nino.

and 

1983-84, 1984-85, 1985-86, 1995-96, 1996-97, 2000-01, 2005-06, 2016-17 for +PDO / La Nina.

The strongest -PDO v. +ENSO years are 1951-52, 1953-54, 2019-20, and 1983-84, 1984-85, 1995-96 for -ENSO.

So... 1951-52 (x3), 1953-54 (x2), 1963-64, 1965-66 (x2), 1972-73, 1994-95, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2018-19, 2019-20 (x3) minus 1983-84 (x3), 1984-85 (x2), 1995-96 (x3), 1996-97, 2000-01, 2005-06, 2016-17 (x2).

This isn't a forecast, it's just to see how the unusual opposites blend, since PDO/ENSO opposite winters occur 1/3 of years or less.

The blend looks like the 1972-73, 1997-98, -2014-15 blend I used for June doesn't it?

[snowman19]

[Terpeast]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I've been experimenting with the incoherent PDO / ENSO set of winters. In other words:

(El Nino w/ -PDO) - (La Nina w/ +PDO). Just to see what it looks like. Still not many good matches. If you're a bit generous with "anti" PDO years. You get something like:

1951-52, 1953-54, 1963-64, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1994-95, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2018-19, 2019-20 for -PDO / El Nino.

and 

1983-84, 1984-85, 1985-86, 1995-96, 1996-97, 2000-01, 2005-06, 2016-17 for +PDO / La Nina.

The strongest -PDO v. +ENSO years are 1951-52, 1953-54, 2019-20, and 1983-84, 1984-85, 1995-96 for -ENSO.

So... 1951-52 (x3), 1953-54 (x2), 1963-64, 1965-66 (x2), 1972-73, 1994-95, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2018-19, 2019-20 (x3) minus 1983-84 (x3), 1984-85 (x2), 1995-96 (x3), 1996-97, 2000-01, 2005-06, 2016-17 (x2).

This isn't a forecast, it's just to see how the unusual opposites blend, since PDO/ENSO opposite winters occur 1/3 of years or less.

The blend looks like the 1972-73, 1997-98, -2014-15 blend I used for June doesn't it?

What about 1991-92? Although its pdo was neutral, it also had a negative qbo along with strong oni. Do you think we should include it?

[GaWx]

On 7/5/2023 at 1:27 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

CFS is still trending towards a high-end moderate to strong Nino. the members with a three-month over +2C are few and far between. we will need to see very rapid warming by the end of the month in order to have those super Nino predictions pan out

 I just looked at the latest CFS averaged out over the last 10 days (40 members). It surprisingly shows a significant warmer shift for the peak of the mean ONI from ~+1.75 on what your quoted post shows for the 6/25-7/4 run average to what it shows now, ~+1.97. Looking at the 8 blue lines (runs from the last 48 hours), 6 of them reach or exceed +2.0 for the peak. In contrast, only two blue reached +2.0 on both the 7/4 and 6/24 runs and none on the 6/14 run. Nearly half of the 40 members on this newest run reach or exceed +2.0 vs only a handful as you said as of eight days ago.  
 
 It is possible that this is just a temporary blip and that the mean could easily trend back cooler over the next 10 days or so. Also, how accurate the CFS is in general is in question. But regardless, I'm looking at the latest CFS trend (vs 8 days ago) and it is warmer.

 Any thoughts from you or others on this warmer shift? Note that this isn't bc and thus should be adjusted for a bc, but I'm looking at the trend vs the non-bc graph as of 8 days ago (apples to apples):

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I just looked at the latest CFS averaged out over the last 10 days (40 members). It surprisingly shows a significant warmer shift for the peak of the mean ONI from ~+1.75 on what your quoted post shows for the 6/25-7/4 run average to what it shows now, ~+1.97. Looking at the 8 blue lines (runs from the last 48 hours), 6 of them reach or exceed +2.0 for the peak. In contrast, only two blue reached +2.0 on both the 7/4 and 6/24 runs and none on the 6/14 run. Nearly half of the 40 members on this newest run reach or exceed +2.0 vs only a handful as you said as of eight days ago.  
 
 It is possible that this is just a temporary blip and that the mean could easily trend back cooler over the next 10 days or so. Also, how accurate the CFS is in general is in question. But regardless, I'm looking at the latest CFS trend (vs 8 days ago) and it is warmer.

 Any thoughts from you or others on this warmer shift? Note that this isn't bc and thus should be adjusted for a bc, but I'm looking at the trend vs the non-bc graph as of 8 days ago (apples to apples):

it's probably because it has the MJO pulse, but it's still on an island with regards to that... just my guess. most models have a weak wave at best. we'll see which is right over the next couple of weeks

[GaWx]

59 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's probably because it has the MJO pulse, but it's still on an island with regards to that... just my guess. most models have a weak wave at best. we'll see which is right over the next couple of weeks

 And the CFS progged MJO amplitude continues  to slowly weaken with it now only ~1.6 vs low 2 range just 3 days ago.

 I would like to note that the bc GEFS mean has been swinging pretty wildly from day to day. Just two days ago, it headed to right on the circle in phase 3. Today it has it back to a little outside the circle in phase 5, similar to 3 days ago! Also, folks should note the very large variance between members. That along with the big swings on the mean from day to day tell me that late July is not an easy forecast for GEFS and that more wild daily swings of the mean are quite possible:

 

[snowman19]

From HM:

[snowman19]

From HM:

[GaWx]

 Today CPC said these were the approximate chances for the upcoming El Niño peak late this year:

-super 20%
-strong 32%
-moderate 30%
-weak 18%
 

  I see hardly any chance for a weak peak. That would require it to be peaking about now. Only 1953 peaked this early of the ~50 El Niño events since the mid 1800s. I'll call it a 1% chance. I have strong at ~50%, moderate at ~25%, and super at ~25% as of now although it is ever changing.

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/strengths/index.php

 

[raindancewx]

Here is an example of the anti-ENSO v PDO looks I mentioned above.

July 1-11 1983 (La Nina following El Nino, rapidly declining solar, +PDO, after a traditional net-aerosol gain volcanic eruption, i.e. net cooling.)  About as opposite as possible. It's a cold/warm/cold split left to right in early July 1983. 1951 if you assume +1 to +2 of warming given the ocean gain in heat content, is warm/cold/warm from left to right, like this year.

[snowman19]

 Today CPC said these were the approximate chances for the upcoming El Niño peak late this year:
-super 20%
-strong 32%
-moderate 30%
-weak 18%
 
  I see hardly any chance for a weak peak. That would require it to be peaking about now. Only 1953 peaked this early of the ~50 El Niño events since the mid 1800s. I'll call it a 1% chance. I have strong at ~50%, moderate at ~25%, and super at ~25% as of now although it is ever changing.
 
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/strengths/index.php
 

IMO, I’d say strong is a given at this point, 100%. I’d give a “super” event (above +2.0C) a 95% chance come November/December

[GaWx]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

 And the CFS progged MJO amplitude continues  to slowly weaken with it now only ~1.6 vs low 2 range just 3 days ago.

 I would like to note that the bc GEFS mean has been swinging pretty wildly from day to day. Just two days ago, it headed to right on the circle in phase 3. Today it has it back to a little outside the circle in phase 5, similar to 3 days ago! Also, folks should note the very large variance between members. That along with the big swings on the mean from day to day tell me that late July is not an easy forecast for GEFS and that more wild daily swings of the mean are quite possible:

 

Just like that, the wildly varying bc GEFS is today back to being totally within the circle. The less accurate bc CFS further out in forecast time though had a slight increase in the amplitude in phases 5-6 with max in phase 6 back up to ~1.8 amp (on Aug 9) vs ~1.6 yesterday.

[snowman19]

Just like that, the wildly varying bc GEFS is today back to being totally within the circle. The less accurate bc CFS further out in forecast time though had a slight increase in the amplitude in phases 5-6 with max in phase 6 back up to ~1.8 amp (on Aug 9) vs ~1.6 yesterday.

HM and others said those RMM plots are normally very inaccurate due to noise and completely miss MJO signals. The VP and OLR are much more accurate

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

HM and others said those RMM plots are normally very inaccurate due to noise and completely miss MJO signals. The VP and OLR are much more accurate

 Well, you like to follow the MJO and have brought it up many times in tweets. We have easily accessible daily model forecasts of MJO RMM. Plus we have access to decades of historical MJO RMM hard, objective data to compare to. The main reason I started posting about the MJO in this ENSO thread was the tweets you've posted addressing the same topic.

[snowman19]

 Well, you like to follow the MJO and have brought it up many times in tweets. We have easily accessible daily model forecasts of MJO RMM. Plus we have access to decades of historical MJO RMM hard, objective data to compare to. The main reason I started posting about the MJO in this ENSO thread was the tweets you've posted addressing the same topic.

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 The above quoted tweet thread really doesn't tell me anything as it is too abstract to allow me to get a handle on anything relevant to trying to forecast the 2023 ENSO.

[griteater]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today CPC said these were the approximate chances for the upcoming El Niño peak late this year:

-super 20%
-strong 32%
-moderate 30%
-weak 18%
 

  I see hardly any chance for a weak peak. That would require it to be peaking about now. Only 1953 peaked this early of the ~50 El Niño events since the mid 1800s. I'll call it a 1% chance. I have strong at ~50%, moderate at ~25%, and super at ~25% as of now although it is ever changing.

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/strengths/index.php

 

 

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

IMO, I’d say strong is a given at this point, 100%. I’d give a “super” event (above +2.0C) a 95% chance come November/December

In terms of betting on outcomes, it also depends on the details around what is considered strong / super etc.  Does the +2.0C value mean daily, weekly, monthly, one tri-monthly, multiple tri-monthlies?  There are varying definitions used of course. 

What I am personally currently using for the definition is looking at 3 data sets: 1) CPC ONI, 2) CPC RONI, and 3) EWebber ENSO ENS ONI.  And if at least 2 of the 3 data sets classify it as Super Nino, then I go with it being a Super Nino.  In terms of classifying it as, say, Strong vs. Super, I average the top 3 tri-monthly ONI values for the data set during the SON (Sep/Oct/Nov) to JFM (Jan/Feb/Mar) period.  For example, if the top 3 tri-monthly values during that timeframe are 2.0/2.0/1.8, that would be a Strong Nino for that dataset....if 2.2/2.0/1.9, that would be a Super Nino for that dataset

Prior to 1950, there is only one dataset, the EWebber ENSO ENS ONI

[griteater]

With respect to the MJO, I think 'both' can be true.  The typical calculation of the MJO using RMM includes: 1) low level zonal wind anomalies (850mb), 2) upper level zonal wind anomalies (200mb), and 3) tropical convection (OLR).  The stronger and more in phase each of these variables are, the higher the MJO amplitude will be.  In these cases of higher MJO amplitude, we should expect the MJO to impart a greater impact on SST warming & cooling (depending on MJO phase) in the ENSO regions.

In cases where the MJO is out of phase with the 3 components, you are going to have lower MJO amplitude numbers; however, it's still possible in these cases to have +850mb wind anomalies and -SOI that warm the ENSO SSTs.  The current EPS and GEPS are making a move toward -SOI and +850 wind anomalies moving across the dateline which would likely lead to western ENSO region warming

[snowman19]

In terms of betting on outcomes, it also depends on the details around what is considered strong / super etc.  Does the +2.0C value mean daily, weekly, monthly, one tri-monthly, multiple tri-monthlies?  There are varying definitions used of course. 
What I am personally currently using for the definition is looking at 3 data sets: 1) CPC ONI, 2) CPC RONI, and 3) EWebber ENSO ENS ONI.  And if at least 2 of the 3 data sets classify it as Super Nino, then I go with it being a Super Nino.  In terms of classifying it as, say, Strong vs. Super, I average the top 3 tri-monthly ONI values for the data set during the SON (Sep/Oct/Nov) to JFM (Jan/Feb/Mar) period.  For example, if the top 3 tri-monthly values during that timeframe are 2.0/2.0/1.8, that would be a Strong Nino for that dataset....if 2.2/2.0/1.9, that would be a Super Nino for that dataset
Prior to 1950, there is only one dataset, the EWebber ENSO ENS ONI

I’m growing more confident that we will already be in a strong El Niño by the start of fall. I think it takes until late November/December to eclipse +2.0C in region 3.4

[George001]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m growing more confident that we will already be in a strong El Niño by the start of fall. I think it takes until late November/December to eclipse +2.0C in region 3.4

I believe this event will peak earlier, in October. I do agree with you that we will be in a strong El Niño by fall though, I’m just not sold on additional strengthening into December. My thinking is a peak of around +1.8, so high end strong, but I’m becoming more open to the idea of a low end super nino. Either way, El Niño will be a significant pattern driver during the winter. That said, we are getting to the point where a moderate peak is becoming increasingly unlikely. Paul Roundy has been saying that the warmth in enso 3 and 1.2 will build west, which will strengthen the El Niño further. Considering the nino is already borderline moderate by ONI it’s safe to say that this El Niño will NOT be weak. 

[snowman19]

I believe this event will peak earlier, in October. I do agree with you that we will be in a strong El Niño by fall though, I’m just not sold on additional strengthening into December. My thinking is a peak of around +1.8, so high end strong, but I’m becoming more open to the idea of a low end super nino. Either way, El Niño will be a significant pattern driver during the winter. That said, we are getting to the point where a moderate peak is becoming increasingly unlikely. Paul Roundy has been saying that the warmth in enso 3 and 1.2 will build west, which will strengthen the El Niño further. Considering the nino is already borderline moderate by ONI it’s safe to say that this El Niño will NOT be weak. 

Based on how this is progressing and what the models are showing, it most likely peaks in December. I think we are in a strong El Niño event by the fall equinox and I think we surpass the +2.0C (super) threshold sometime in late November or December

[George001]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Based on how this is progressing and what the models are showing, it most likely peaks in December. I think we are in a strong El Niño event by the fall equinox and I think we surpass the +2.0C (super) threshold sometime in late November or December

That is very possible. The next IRI update will be very telling. The nino hasn’t been strengthening much in the Enso 3.4 region in July like some of the guidance had, but it has been strengthening in the enso 3 and 1.2 region. Could be a delayed but not denied thing when it comes to significant 3.4 strengthening.

[snowman19]

[Yanksfan]

Looks like a basin wide event is in the making. A pretty good bump up in sea surface temps are being observed in the central and western regions according to TT the past couple of days.

[GaWx]

 Today's OISST anomaly increase in Nino 3.4 of 0.76 (to +1.160) is the largest daily increase since way back on June 6th. Also, today's anomaly is the highest so far this year in regions 3.4, 3, and 1+2.

[GaWx]

On 7/13/2023 at 1:28 PM, GaWx said:

 I just looked at the latest CFS averaged out over the last 10 days (40 members). It surprisingly shows a significant warmer shift for the peak of the mean ONI from ~+1.75 on what your quoted post shows for the 6/25-7/4 run average to what it shows now, ~+1.97. Looking at the 8 blue lines (runs from the last 48 hours), 6 of them reach or exceed +2.0 for the peak. In contrast, only two blue reached +2.0 on both the 7/4 and 6/24 runs and none on the 6/14 run. Nearly half of the 40 members on this newest run reach or exceed +2.0 vs only a handful as you said as of eight days ago.  
 
 It is possible that this is just a temporary blip and that the mean could easily trend back cooler over the next 10 days or so. Also, how accurate the CFS is in general is in question. But regardless, I'm looking at the latest CFS trend (vs 8 days ago) and it is warmer.

 Any thoughts from you or others on this warmer shift? Note that this isn't bc and thus should be adjusted for a bc, but I'm looking at the trend vs the non-bc graph as of 8 days ago (apples to apples):

 Over just the last three days of 40 run means, the CFS forecasted OND 3.4 peak has risen from ~+1.97 to ~+2.07! Over just the last 11 days of 40 run means, that peak has risen from ~+1.75 to ~+2.07! What is going on here?