El Nino 2023-2024

[brooklynwx99]

the new C3S looks good for the start of winter. it's an ensemble of the ECMWF, CanSIPS, NCEP, UKMET, French models, German models, and JAMSTEC... pretty much an ensemble of every major seasonal forecasting model. it's as holistic as we can get

it is consistent with the cooling of 1+2, shifting the anomalies basin-wide once we head into the late fall and early winter. we end up with a high-end strong to low-end super Nino here on average. perhaps the most important part is that forcing sets up shop along the dateline, probably leading to a more favorable pattern. the forcing is more important than the strength, IMO. if we have forcing in this region for most of the winter, there is going to be a large winter storm or two. I would put money down on that

500mb shows this... keep in mind that this has the global mean subtracted, so the negative anomalies would be lesser, but this still shows a mean trough over the SE with blocking. the STJ is ripping with the right entrance region over the Gulf alongside split flow, and there is a significant positive precip anomaly over the EC

[snowman19]

Could someone please start a 2023-24 winter thread so we can stop posting winter pattern fantasy maps from 6, 7, 8 months from now in a dedicated El Niño thread?

[roardog]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Could someone please start a 2023-24 winter thread so we can stop posting winter pattern fantasy maps from 6, 7, 8 months from now in a dedicated El Niño thread?

Yeah. We should stick to posting fantasy model runs showing 3.4 peaking at 3C in 5 months instead.

[brooklynwx99]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Could someone please start a Paul Roundy twitter thread so I can breathlessly post super nino fantasy tweets for 6, 7, 8 months from now?

 

[brooklynwx99]

it is literally the largest ensemble we have for this kind of stuff. not sure what your gripe is about considering it'll have the highest skill given the most data available

there is enough hardcore analysis of trade winds and shit like that. it doesn't really change that much on a daily basis. i mean, GaWx posts daily SST changes from three different analyses... is that not enough for you?

[CAPE]

35 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

 

He parrots twitter geeks who say stuff that *apparently* support his agenda. Then on subsequent posts, he says 'in my opinion'. lol. As if anyone cares.

[CAPE]

What is a tangible/interesting reason for tracking the ENSO state again? I forget.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

What is a tangible/interesting reason for tracking the ENSO state again? I forget.

it determines where and how strong the tropical forcing is, or at least it's the biggest influence of the forcing

for +ENSO, it often leads to forcing that causes an Aleutian low to form based on where the warmest water is situated. this Nino is interesting because it seems like the WPAC warm pool may be dragging the forcing farther west towards MJO phases 7, 8, and 1. this leads to a farther west ULL that opens the door for split flow and blocking rather than an inundation of Pacific air

it's the opposite for -ENSO, as the forcing is centered over the Maritime Continent in MJO phases 4, 5, and 6... these lead to an Aleutian high and low heights over the Pacific NW. this is why Ninas suck most of the time

so seeing the forcing so consistently projected to be over the dateline leads me to believe that a favorable winter with a strong STJ is certainly in the cards... we just need to wait a couple more months to iron out the strength and location of the Nino

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it determines where and how strong the tropical forcing is, or at least it's the biggest influence of the forcing

for +ENSO, it often leads to forcing that causes an Aleutian low to form based on where the warmest water is situated. this Nino is interesting because it seems like the WPAC warm pool may be dragging the forcing farther west towards MJO phases 7, 8, and 1. this leads to a farther west ULL that opens the door for split flow and blocking rather than an inundation of Pacific air

it's the opposite for -ENSO, as the forcing is centered over the Maritime Continent in MJO phases 4, 5, and 6... these lead to an Aleutian high and low heights over the Pacific NW. this is why Ninas suck most of the time

so seeing the forcing so consistently projected to be over the dateline leads me to believe that a favorable winter with a strong STJ is certainly in the cards... we just need to wait a couple more months to iron out the strength and location of the Nino

lol i was being facetious. snowman seems to think we track it just because.

[snowman19]

He parrots twitter geeks who say stuff that *apparently* support his agenda. Then on subsequent posts, he says 'in my opinion'. lol. As if anyone cares.

It’s not a hard concept, well maybe for the challenged people, like yourself. It’s called stick to the topic, which is clearly “El Nino” in here. If you want to wishcast about winter 500mb patterns and high latitude blocking, and -NAO’s go do that in a winter thread

[CAPE]

Just now, snowman19 said:

It’s not a hard concept, well maybe for the challenged people, like yourself. It’s called stick to the topic, which is clearly “El Nino” in here. If you want to wishcast about winter 500mb patterns and high latitude blocking, and -NAO’s go do that in a winter thread

lol. you only pay attention because you want to perpetually deb on winter. that's your schtick. thus you root for an east-based super Nino.

[CAPE]

@brooklynwx99

nice post though.

maybe snowman numbs will glean something from it.

[griteater]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol. you only pay attention because you want to perpetually deb on winter. that's your schtick. thus you root for an east-based super Nino.

I just can’t figure out the source for such passion over trying to control what is discussed in here. Why get so fired up about others discussing how ENSO may impact the winter / or may impact the hurricane season. I guess it’s either due to a hatred for cold and snow or a pleasure in trolling others who are looking for a certain outcome (best guess is the latter, but I really don’t know…and more importantly, just don’t understand or relate to the concept of it) 

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, griteater said:

I just can’t figure out the source for such passion over trying to control what is discussed in here. Why get so fired up about others discussing how ENSO may impact the winter / or may impact the hurricane season. I guess it’s either due to a hatred for cold and snow or a pleasure in trolling others who are looking for a certain outcome (best guess is the latter, but I really don’t know…and more importantly, just don’t understand or relate to the concept of it) 

At least he is 5 posted. Could you imagine what this thread would be like lol?

[griteater]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the new C3S looks good for the start of winter. it's an ensemble of the ECMWF, CanSIPS, NCEP, UKMET, French models, German models, and JAMSTEC... pretty much an ensemble of every major seasonal forecasting model. it's as holistic as we can get

it is consistent with the cooling of 1+2, shifting the anomalies basin-wide once we head into the late fall and early winter. we end up with a high-end strong to low-end super Nino here on average. perhaps the most important part is that forcing sets up shop along the dateline, probably leading to a more favorable pattern. the forcing is more important than the strength, IMO. if we have forcing in this region for most of the winter, there is going to be a large winter storm or two. I would put money down on that

500mb shows this... keep in mind that this has the global mean subtracted, so the negative anomalies would be lesser, but this still shows a mean trough over the SE with blocking. the STJ is ripping with the right entrance region over the Gulf alongside split flow, and there is a significant positive precip anomaly over the EC

I suspect we will see a sharp rise or 2 in 3.4 warming over the late summer to early winter period, but think we will end up classifying this as a strong Nino and not Super in the end. I’m more up in the air with the Nino base. Conventional wisdom says this will spread out more basin wide thru winter, but that’s not a guarantee based on a few prior cases and the Euro seasonal is stubborn to hang onto east based SSTs into winter.  Regardless, nearly all seasonal modeling up to this point wants to hang the -VP back west

[roardog]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

At least he is 5 posted. Could you imagine what this thread would be like lol?

At least he’s banned from your sub forum. lol

[Rtd208]

44 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol. you only pay attention because you want to perpetually deb on winter. that's your schtick. thus you root for an east-based super Nino.

He should really get together with the "other guys" who downplay every rain/snow event regardless of the outcome. Wasn't there that one guy who said Ida would be a "non event" for NJ? 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

He should really get together with the "other guys" who downplay every rain/snow event regardless of the outcome. Wasn't there that one guy who said Ida would be a "non event" for NJ? 

Probably should be a deb thread in each subforum. might make more work for the mods though lol- moving posts.

[brooklynwx99]

honestly, the debs make my life a bit easier. sometimes I get accused of disappearing when the patterns crap out during the winter. wanna know why myself and others don't post when things are quiet? because there are several people waiting to talk about how crap the pattern is. why even bother posting about it lmao it's also just quiet and uninteresting anyway

[raindancewx]

The link for my analog scoring model seems to have died pretty quickly after I uploaded it before. This one should last for 30 days if anyone wants it. You literally enter what you think will happen on the right and it automatically scores all the years since 1931 as matches on seven factors. The data for Solar, AMO, PDO, ENSO, Modoki, ENSO prior, etc is in there with weightings. Also allows you to quickly see how matching years would change if most conditions were similar, but one of the variables changed.

https://easyupload.io/zajyq9

https://t.co/XMMwn7g23u

I still like a ~ +2.0C peak or Oct-Nov, steady or falling starting in Nov-Dec, and only around +1.5 for DJF (28.0C) in Nino 3.4. In prior El Ninos following three cold ENSO years, the PDO has flipped mid-year. Typically May-August. So if it is going to happen, it should be anytime now. Still looks negative to me.

The fluky flooding in the NE US reminds of Agnes in 1972 by the way. I've been looking for some kind of heavy-rainer up there, whether tropical or not.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-PDO should strengthen the next 15 or so days... 

[so_whats_happening]

This is something to keep in mind are conditions capable to have this large spike, almost doubling of current SST's come fall time? Upper ocean heat anoms (not OHC) taking a bit of a nosedive and looking at the rest of the month trades will rule over most of the basin maybe that little potential will come the last week of July, still nearly 2 weeks away though.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s not a hard concept, well maybe for the challenged people, like yourself. It’s called stick to the topic, which is clearly “El Nino” in here. If you want to wishcast about winter 500mb patterns and high latitude blocking, and -NAO’s go do that in a winter thread

The forcing is very relevent to ENSO, as its dictated by ENSO. It's like calling posts about storm surge OT in a hurricane thread.

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

 Through July 11th, the July MTD OISST in 3.4 is still averaging only +1.0 with the implied ERSST likely close to only +0.9 to +0.95. These continue to be quite underwhelming when considering the BoM full July progs of +1.8 on the prior run and even the +1.5 of the current run. Major too warm bust coming.

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I've noticed that sometimes the EPS is too weak on the right half of the graph and that the higher amp of the GEFS is often closer in these cases. However, even the bc GEFS mean is only barely outside the circle and hardly moving in phase 5. So, I agree there's no model consensus indication of a strong MJO phase for at least two weeks. The only model with something more is the CFS (bc), with a pretty strong (amp >2) move to phases 5 and then 6 very late July into early August. But it's the inferior CFS and it's on its own.

 Check this out. Today's GEFS (bc) never gets out of the circle through the end of today's run (7/25). Today's stops moving up the diagram ~7/18 and then turns downward to end up on 7/25 on the circle headed toward phase 3 of all things compared to going outside the circle barely into phase 5 in yesterday's run as of 7/24! So, GEFS is signaling more than normal uncertainty late in the runs with this big change and still suggests no strong MJO being likely anytime soon:

 

[roardog]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Check this out. Today's GEFS (bc) never gets out of the circle through the end of today's run (7/25). Today's stops moving up the diagram ~7/18 and then turns downward to end up on 7/25 on the circle headed toward phase 3 of all things compared to going outside the circle barely into phase 5 in yesterday's run as of 7/24! So, GEFS is signaling more than normal uncertainty late in the runs with this big change and still suggests no strong MJO being likely anytime soon:

 

I was just going to ask where this talk of a major MJO wave keeps coming from. I’ve seen nothing other than the weeklies which have been less than stellar to say the least. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

I was just going to ask where this talk of a major MJO wave keeps coming from. I’ve seen nothing other than the weeklies which have been less than stellar to say the least. 

 Maybe from CFS huggers even though the CFS is quite a bit inferior to GEFS/EPS. The CFS remains on its own with a significant MJO amplitude into phases 5 and 6 though not starting for two weeks and actually is slightly weaker vs yesterday's 2+ amp. I'm looking for it to correct further toward weaker amp on future runs:

*Edit: keep in mind that CFS goes out further than GEFS/EPS and it's the further out in time and much more unreliable portion that goes well outside the circle. However, neither GEFS nor EPS suggests a strong move into phases 5-6 as of the ends of their runs as of now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Why all of that MJO talk? This is an ENSO thread!!