El Nino 2023-2024

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, FPizz said:

I saw this posted elsewhere about MEI:

The MEI for May/June number just came out at +.2.  Since 1979 and NO strong Niño was under +1 at this point. In fact, the only Niños that were lower than this year since 1979 were WEAK (79/80, 04/05, 06/07.)

Sooooo, unless some magic occurs real fast unlike anything in the past 43 years, we'll be lucky to see a moderate Niño according to the MEI.

Here's a link to Ninas/Niños if you want to see for yourself. 

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Just throwing this out since you guys know way more than me about this.  

That’s due to the Central Pacific trade wind index remaining positive every spring month throughJune which hasn’t happened during an El Niño since 97-98. Even the weaker years had one negative month which means relaxing trades and stronger WWBs. The MEI takes in factors like winds, SSTs, and OLR. The stronger trades have allowed Nino 3.4 to lag behind super El Niño years like 97-98 and 15-16. So going over 2.0 in 3.4 doesn’t look likely unless we get a stronger CP WWB pattern developing. 

 

850 MB TRADE WIND INDEX(175W-140W)5N 5S  CENTRAL PACIFIC                        
                        ANOMALY       

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The MEI does have a higher correlation to the global 500mb pattern than Nino 3.4 SSTs, so to miss something by 0.8 does matter. I've yet to see a strong Nino pattern anywhere around the globe. There was thought that the Atlantic Hurricane season would see a bounce this year, with last years relative-low, but that historically is really only possible if El Nino stays weaker. 2002 and 2004 both had 15 Atlantic NS, the record high for El Nino.  

[raindancewx]

Currently, the El Nino of 1951-52 is my top objective match locally to how highs have behaved out of all years since 1931. 1982 is actually not a bad match either among the stronger El Nino set. For July 1951 the high was 96+. I could see that happening here this year - it's been hot this July so far, with all days for the foreseeable future set to be above average highs (92F). The big El Nino of 1982 was volcanic, with an unusually timed big heat wave in Mexico in June (the heat typically peaks there in Apr-May).

March 1952 is really cold here, like 7 below average cold. It's sort of similar to last year locally, normal-ish temps winter, with Oct/Nov/Feb/Mar much more severe than Dec/Jan

I think most of you would agree Boston has a pretty different climate to Albuquerque (above) but 1951 also shows up as the top match for Boston year to date. 

These are the El Ninos in the Boston & ABQ top eight matches blended (1951-52, 1951-52, 1969-70, 1982-83, 2002-03, 2006-07, 2019-20. It's a pretty mild overall cold season, but Oct/Nov are stupid cold in most of the US, with March also very cold. That's consistent with my research on transitional seasons in volcanic years.

Off the top of my head - this would be what 35 inches of snow for Boston and 10 inches where I am? Actually would bet it's closer to normal snow in DC/Philly than Boston but I'd have to look.

[snowman19]

[FPizz]

17 hours ago, mitchnick said:

The blurb that FPizz posted was mine from a Phillywx post. I  included with my post the MEI values since 1979, so I  will include them with this post. You can see from the MEI values, ALL strong events were greater than 1 at the May/June reading with 97/98 at 2.4. I  haven't seen a graph for the RONI, and maybe I'm reading your post incorrectly, but the MEI this year clearly does not stack up with past super el nino events thru May/June. In fact, this year's  MEI matches closest to 02/03 & 09/10 to my aged eyes. I agree with your definition/purpose of the MEI, so maybe there's a lag, but it sure is odd that the readings so far have been far from previous strong events and much closer to weak Niños. 

Fyi, if anyone is looking for a 1 stop site for Enso modeling/conditions, this would be it:

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

 

Thanks!  I didn't even realize you were on the board, lol.  I was impressed by it so wanted to run it by the minds here.  Thanks for posting!

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, mitchnick said:

The blurb that FPizz posted was mine from a Phillywx post. I  included with my post the MEI values since 1979, so I  will include them with this post. You can see from the MEI values, ALL strong events were greater than 1 at the May/June reading with 97/98 at 2.4. I  haven't seen a graph for the RONI, and maybe I'm reading your post incorrectly, but the MEI this year clearly does not stack up with past super el nino events thru May/June. In fact, this year's  MEI matches closest to 02/03 & 09/10 to my aged eyes. I agree with your definition/purpose of the MEI, so maybe there's a lag, but it sure is odd that the readings so far have been far from previous strong events and much closer to weak Niños. 

Fyi, if anyone is looking for a 1 stop site for Enso modeling/conditions, this would be it:

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

 

cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

I cannot help but feel a semblance of ownership violation ... I started talking about this years and years ago - primarily on social media so ... cheers.

But in reality ... these "discoveries" or connections or whatever are seldom coming from a single revolutionary voice - they only seem to.   You know? - like fire became an instrument to humanity at the same time, all over the planet. 

Point being, this connection was was likely going to happen simultaneously.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I cannot help but feel a semblance of ownership violation ... I started talking about this years and years ago - primarily on social media so ... cheers.

But in reality ... these "discoveries" or connections or whatever are seldom coming from a single revolutionary voice - they only seem to.   You know? - like fire became an instrument to humanity at the same time, all over the planet. 

Point being, this connection was was likely going to happen simultaneously.

Yea, you have been banging this drum for years.

[brooklynwx99]

new NMME. pretty much moderate to strong. Nino generally doesn’t strengthen much until September 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

new NMME. pretty much moderate to strong. Nino generally doesn’t strengthen much until September 

Makes sense to me.

[snowman19]

Makes sense to me.

IMO, I think it gets stronger than that, but I do agree that it peaks in December. I think it strengthens right into December when the final peak happens

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO, I think it gets stronger than that, but I do agree that it peaks in December. I think it strengthens right into December when the final peak happens

I'll bet you right now the ONI doesn't hit 2.0....loser can't post between 12/1 and 3/31. You even have less to lose with the 5/day deal working for ya....

[snowman19]

I'll bet you right now the ONI doesn't hit 2.0....loser can't post between 12/1 and 3/31. You even have less to lose with the 5/day deal working for ya....

Very confident region 3.4 is over +2.0C on the weeklies late November and December

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Very confident region 3.4 is over +2.0C on the weeklies late November and December

So, put your posting rights where your keyboard is....lol

[snowman19]

So, put your posting rights where your keyboard is....lol

You got it

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Back to +7c in the eastern subsurface.. The El Nino may become a self-perpetuating system, given how round its yearly evolution is. I think it will be interesting to see the unfoldment of the N. Pacific pattern if the central-subsurface remains cold and Nino 3-4 move into Moderate territory. this tendency toward cold bias will have been what we have seen through a lot of 2020-2022. 

[snowman19]

Wow!

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You got it

Haha Full disclosure, no way would I be able to do that with my blog and all ..I just wanted to see how confident you were. I will definitely give you credit if you are right, though. 

[snowman19]

Here comes the MJO wave that’s really going to start kicking this Nino into overdrive later on this month

[GaWx]

 We're 1/4 into July and yet OISST is still only at +1.0, which implies that ERSST (used to determine the ONI and how strong a Nino) based on recent differences is likely only ~+0.9. The latest BoM had reduced July from +1.8 to +1.5. I'm getting close to calling even the +1.5 a bust. It would take a massive warming of ERSST to +2+ the next 3 weeks for +1.5 July ERSST to occur. 
 
 Looking at OISST 3.4 weekly anomalies for oncoming El Niño since 1982, there are only two 3 week periods that warmed that rapidly:

-Sep 1982: warmed 1.1, but SOI was sub -20 Aug/Sep

-Mar 2014: warmed 1.4 but SOI was -13 2/21/14-3/21/14

 So, the SOI was strongly - in advance and during these two periods. The current 30 day is way up at +3. It does appear to be headed back to modest -SOI next weekend followed by a week+ of -SOI thanks to low Tahiti SLP. However, with Darwin SLP remaining kind of low much of that period, the oncoming -SOI doesn't look strong at this point until perhaps ~7/22. By then, it is probably too late to have much impact for July 3.4 SST anomalies.
 
 The OHC is quite warm at ~+1.4, but that's not warm enough to support a +2.0 in 3.4 within 3 weeks. In Sep of 1982, the OHC had warmed from +1.11 two months earlier to way up at +1.86. From 9/6/82 to 9/27/82, 3.4 SSTs warmed from +0.6 to +1.7. 

  In March of 2014, the OHC was way up at +1.60 after a massive warming from only +0.39 the month before.

 Thus, I see only a very small chance for a rapid warming in 3.4 the rest of this month. So, it looks like another too warm bust for BoM in July.

[raindancewx]

On 7/6/2023 at 6:56 PM, raindancewx said:

Currently, the El Nino of 1951-52 is my top objective match locally to how highs have behaved out of all years since 1931. 

I think most of you would agree Boston has a pretty different climate to Albuquerque (above) but 1951 also shows up as the top match for Boston year to date. 

 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

Haha Full disclosure, no way would I be able to do that with my blog and all ..I just wanted to see how confident you were. I will definitely give you credit if you are right, though. 

If nothing else, we are witnessing history. If this becomes super (which I expect), it is probably a once in a 100 year, extremely rare event and we will never see a Nino develop in this way again in our lifetimes. Breaking all the “rules”. It showed us a completely alternative way to develop a very strong El Niño that we definitely are not traditionally accustomed to….

[snowman19]

Here comes the MJO event people were talking about

[GaWx]

Nino 3.4 rose 0.1 back to +1.0 as I had expected per OISST in today's weekly release, which is for the average of last week. But OISST has stalled again near +1.0 as of yesterday's daily. And keep in mind that ERSST, which ONI is based on, has recently been running 0.1+ cooler than OISST.
 

 Nino 3 and 4 also rose 0.1. But the most warming was in 1+2, which warmed 0.4 to +3.3, the warmest since 1998!

 The 100W-180W OHC actually fell a little vs the prior week. It had been near +1.35, but fell back to ~+1.20. That just about eliminates any chance for the overall July 3.4 to reach near the most recent BoM's +1.5.

[snowman19]

Nino 3.4 rose 0.1 back to +1.0 as I had expected per OISST in today's weekly release, which is for the average of last week. But OISST has stalled again near +1.0 as of yesterday's daily. And keep in mind that ERSST, which ONI is based on, has recently been running 0.1+ cooler than OISST.
 
 Nino 3 and 4 also rose 0.1. But the most warming was in 1+2, which warmed 0.4 to +3.3, the warmest since 1998!
 The 100W-180W OHC actually fell a little vs the prior week. It had been near +1.35, but fell back to ~+1.20. That just about eliminates any chance for the overall July 3.4 to reach near the most recent BoM's +1.5.

If the Euro is correct, the real big warming is ASOND

[mitchnick]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Here comes the MJO event people were talking about

That's surprising they would be so confident. Last night's 0z runs of the Euro ensembles and bias corrected Euro ensembles keeps the MJO near dead center of the COD on 7/24. The forecasts referenced in those tweets must have been from 0z and 12z 7/9 in light of the time/date stamps. 

The link below I used/referenced above has just about all MJO forecasts with the Key to each product abbreviation below the forecast box. Fyi, the default model for the link is the Gefs. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

People appear too eager to cling onto MJO forecasts weeks out that can't even be accurately forecasted days out. But that's what happens when models start to increase the regularity of their runs. 

[brooklynwx99]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's surprising they would be so confident. Last night's 0z runs of the Euro ensembles and bias corrected Euro ensembles keeps the MJO near dead center of the COD on 7/24. The forecasts referenced in those tweets must have been from 0z and 12z 7/9 in light of the time/date stamps. 

The link below I used/referenced above has just about all MJO forecasts with the Key to each product abbreviation below the forecast box. Fyi, the default model for the link is the Gefs. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

People appear too eager to cling onto MJO forecasts weeks out that can't even be accurately forecasted days out. But that's what happens when models start to increase the regularity of their runs. 

this doesn't give me much confidence. yes, there may be a pulse, but it looks like it'll be on the weaker side and towards the end of the month. most members have no wave at all

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this doesn't give me much confidence. yes, there may be a pulse, but it looks like it'll be on the weaker side and towards the end of the month. most members have no wave at all

 I've noticed that sometimes the EPS is too weak on the right half of the graph and that the higher amp of the GEFS is often closer in these cases. However, even the bc GEFS mean is only barely outside the circle and hardly moving in phase 5. So, I agree there's no model consensus indication of a strong MJO phase for at least two weeks. The only model with something more is the CFS (bc), with a pretty strong (amp >2) move to phases 5 and then 6 very late July into early August. But it's the inferior CFS and it's on its own.

[snowman19]