El Nino 2023-2024

[Stormchaserchuck1]

ONI research:

2023

-0.7

-0.4

-0.1

0.2

0.5

5 month: (1.2)

Best CPC ONI matches: -2010 (1.7) [1.6 peak], -2007 (1.1) [1.6 peak], 2006 (0.8) [0.9 peak], -2003 (1.2) [0.4 peak], 1997 (1.3) [2.4 peak], -1995 (0.9) [1.0 peak], 1989 (1.1) [-0.1 peak], -1988 (1.7) [1.8 peak], 1982 (0.7) [2.2 peak], -1978 (1.0) [0.4], 1976 (1.3) [0.9 peak], 1972 (1.4) [2.1], 1965 (0.8) [2.0 peak], -1964 (1.7) [0.8 peak], 1957 (1.1) [1.8 peak], -1954 (1.3) [0.9 peak], 1951 (1.2) [1.2 peak] 

...A lot of weak events in the mix. A few early peakers, and the Strong el nino events qualify but some movements to Strong Nina's had faster pushes, then what qualifies as +0.5(1.2).  You can tell that the trend evens out over the whole dataset (5/5 Strong events qualify doesn't tell the whole story). 

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

2003 was Neutral, 2006 was Weak, 1995 was Weak, 1989 was Neutral, 1978 was Neutral, 1976 was Weak, 1964 was Weak, 1954 was Weak. 

[brooklynwx99]

CFS is still trending towards a high-end moderate to strong Nino. the members with a three-month over +2C are few and far between. we will need to see very rapid warming by the end of the month in order to have those super Nino predictions pan out

[brooklynwx99]

the bias corrected CFS pretty much favors a moderate Nino as well. this falls in line with the CanSIPS. i think this is on the cooler side, but it has still trended colder over the last 15 days

the ECMWF is still running warm, but it is still trending towards the CFS and CanSIPS. again, we would need to see significant warming occur very soon in order for the higher-end solutions to play out

[snowman19]

the bias corrected CFS pretty much favors a moderate Nino as well. this falls in line with the CanSIPS. i think this is on the cooler side, but it has still trended colder over the last 15 days

the ECMWF is still running warm, but it is still trending towards the CFS and CanSIPS. again, we would need to see significant warming occur very soon in order for the higher-end solutions to play out

After the MJO event later this month the warming will take off big time. Even Eric Webb, who was skeptical, has come onboard now. The CFS is hot garbage btw, that model had a borderline weak Nino developing last year at one point

[so_whats_happening]

Sorry but im not seeing the MJO wave showing up yet. I also really wouldn't take a forecast nearly 2+ weeks as gospel we have seen how this worked out with the last potential MJO wave/ -VP forecast from end of May for middle to later half of June. This had looked like an appreciable event that would kick things in motion once again and while we did see a minor spike in temps (~0.1) increase in 3.4 it was not enough to really warrant the solid wave that was forecasted by models at the end of May beginning of June. Now if we start to actually erode a fairly Nina like atmosphere I could agree but Hovmollers over the next week and SOI present a different picture muted warming potential and even cooling looks to take place over 3.4 maybe even 3, as we see 4 has taken a dive. There is a chance that by the end of the month for a little peak, and I mean little as of right now, into phase 6 before going null again could be from a tropical system trying to get going in the WPAC but overall things are dead. I assume this is the MJO wave in talks?

 

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Sorry but im not seeing the MJO wave showing up yet. I also really wouldn't take a forecast nearly 2+ weeks as gospel we have seen how this worked out with the last potential MJO wave/ -VP forecast from end of May for middle to later half of June. This had looked like an appreciable event that would kick things in motion once again and while we did see a minor spike in temps (~0.1) increase in 3.4 it was not enough to really warrant the solid wave that was forecasted end of May beginning of June. Now if we start to actually erode a fairly Nina like atmosphere I could agree but Hovmollers over the next week and SOI present a different picture muted warming potential and even cooling looks to take place over 3.4 maybe even 3, as we see 4 has taken a dive. There is a chance that by the end of the month for a little peak, and I mean little as of right now, into phase 6 before going null again could be from a tropical system trying to get going in the WPAC but overall things are dead. I assume this is the MJO wave in talks?

 

yes, there are some members that push a decent to strong MJO wave into 6, but these are outliers and the mean is still weak to non-impactful

[so_whats_happening]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yes, there are some members that push a decent to strong MJO wave into 6, but these are outliers and the mean is still weak to non-impactful

Yea GFS is fairly similar in the approach the Euro has but still takes about 2 weeks to get to 6 where something may pop up. By now I would assume we would want this more into 7/8/1 with the little pokes of MJO activity to help cause this positive feedback. Still have plenty of time of course and things will surely change in the next week but as of now this week or so looks rather mundane overall. Hope we do see some overall improvements and move this subsurface warmth out of just the EPAC.

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

An Atlantic season like this with the new Euro showing over +2C in the means? I’ll take the under…..

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

An Atlantic season like this with the new Euro showing over +2C in the means? I’ll take the under…..

At the end of the day, you just never know.....who would have thought that a season which featured two historic -NAO blocks would also feature record low snowfall across much of the east coast. ....no relationship in meteorology is absolute and entirely independent of other variables. The guidance is seeing something and I won't be surprised if its right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

If you look at Ben Noll's response below, he is advocating for use of the RONI as many of us here have been...implying that this isn't going to act like an upper echelon el nino, regardless of ONI. Doesn't necessarily mean it won't be another very mild winter, but it is what it is.

[snowman19]

If you look at Ben Noll's response below, he is advocating for use of the RONI as many of us here have been...implying that this isn't going to act like an upper echelon el nino, regardless of ONI. Doesn't necessarily mean it won't be another very mild winter, but it is what it is.

I suppose anything is possible, but if we see I peak of over +2.0C come November/December (and I’m becoming increasingly confident that we will), I can’t imagine this event not behaving like a canonical El Niño. All we can do is wait and see

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I suppose anything is possible, but if we see I peak of over +2.0C come November/December (and I’m becoming increasingly confident that we will), I can’t imagine this event not behaving like a canonical El Niño. All we can do is wait and see

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

PS: I don't think we hit 2.0.

We shall see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My point is not to expect a big winter...odds are it will be above normal temp wise to some degree. I would just keep an open mind because there is a wide range of possible outcomes this season.

[FPizz]

I saw this posted elsewhere about MEI:

The MEI for May/June number just came out at +.2.  Since 1979 and NO strong Niño was under +1 at this point. In fact, the only Niños that were lower than this year since 1979 were WEAK (79/80, 04/05, 06/07.)

Sooooo, unless some magic occurs real fast unlike anything in the past 43 years, we'll be lucky to see a moderate Niño according to the MEI.

Here's a link to Ninas/Niños if you want to see for yourself. 

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Just throwing this out since you guys know way more than me about this.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 6/29/2023 at 10:15 PM, raindancewx said:

1957/1986 is pretty good for solar/strength/order but I don't like it for the IOD and AMO setups.

You have to get pretty cute to match the main features the way the Canadian has it. This is one of the blends that's kind of a C+ match. But it's hard to get the western Pacific right with the warmest waters in the Nino zone as shown on the Canadian.

10 blend analogs, 3 blend anti-logs

2015-16 x3
2018-19 x3
1972-73
1997-98
1992-93
2012-13

-2014-15 x3

That's a very similar winter to last year if it developed. But I don't think the June Canadian run has quite the right idea, and my blend isn't a great match anyway.

 

On 6/30/2023 at 8:41 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

SSTs dropped pretty significantly compared to the last two runs, and the forcing is still centered over the dateline. so it's not as insane and over the top as the last run, but this is still highly auspicious for anyone that wants a good winter in the E US

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I saw this posted elsewhere about MEI:

The MEI for May/June number just came out at +.2.  Since 1979 and NO strong Niño was under +1 at this point. In fact, the only Niños that were lower than this year since 1979 were WEAK (79/80, 04/05, 06/07.)

Sooooo, unless some magic occurs real fast unlike anything in the past 43 years, we'll be lucky to see a moderate Niño according to the MEI.

Here's a link to Ninas/Niños if you want to see for yourself. 

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Just throwing this out since you guys know way more than me about this.  

I said the same thing with respect to the RONI...

AMJ figures for historical reference.

2015 .73

1997 .84

1982 .68

1972 .80

2023 is .07, which is comparable to 2009 (-.09) and 1986 (-.08).

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

An Atlantic season like this with the new Euro showing over +2C in the means? I’ll take the under…..

I think we will see a large number of sheared out tropical storms. MDR production should be above normal corresponding to warm water temps. Anything that finds a hole in the shear could go nuclear however. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gonna be about the polar domain.

Point being the expected strength and configuration of this el nino is not prohibitive to blocking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

[roardog]

17 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I saw this posted elsewhere about MEI:

The MEI for May/June number just came out at +.2.  Since 1979 and NO strong Niño was under +1 at this point. In fact, the only Niños that were lower than this year since 1979 were WEAK (79/80, 04/05, 06/07.)

Sooooo, unless some magic occurs real fast unlike anything in the past 43 years, we'll be lucky to see a moderate Niño according to the MEI.

Here's a link to Ninas/Niños if you want to see for yourself. 

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Just throwing this out since you guys know way more than me about this.  

Last year the MEI was indicative of a stronger Nina than what the ONI showed. Maybe the MEI is a better indicator than ONI in the current climate. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, roardog said:

Last year the MEI was indicative of a stronger Nina than what the ONI showed. Maybe the MEI is a better indicator than ONI in the current climate. 

Its meant to measure the intensity of the ocean-atmosphere coupling, rather than the shear magnitude of the particular ENSO event.

[roardog]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its meant to measure the intensity of the ocean-atmosphere coupling, rather than the shear magnitude of the particular ENSO event.

Yeah. So it kind of ties in with the RONI. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, roardog said:

Yeah. So it kind of ties in with the RONI. 

Kind of....RONI attempts to provide a better idea of the intensity of ENSO relative to a warming ambient planet, which obviously plays a role in the strength of the ocean-atmosphere coupling that MEI measures, so it is no coincidence that efforts to add historical context to the current MEI value yield similar results with respect to like efforts pertaining to the RONI. Neither stack up with past super el nino events at this time.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Klotzbach doesn't think El Nino will be as strong as some predictions, why his Atlantic ACE forecast is high.

The June value of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (- 2.57) was the most negative June value of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation since 1894. These strong negative anomalies in the eastern subtropical Pacific tend to favor anomalously strong trade winds across the central tropical Pacific, which is one reason why we do not anticipate that El Niño will become as strong as some of the most aggressive model projections indicate.

[snowman19]

Klotzbach doesn't think El Nino will be as strong as some predictions, why his Atlantic ACE forecast is high.
The June value of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (- 2.57) was the most negative June value of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation since 1894. These strong negative anomalies in the eastern subtropical Pacific tend to favor anomalously strong trade winds across the central tropical Pacific, which is one reason why we do not anticipate that El Niño will become as strong as some of the most aggressive model projections indicate.

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Kind of....RONI attempts to provide a better idea of the intensity of ENSO relative to a warming ambient planet, which obviously plays a role in the strength of the ocean-atmosphere coupling that MEI measures, so it is no coincidence that efforts to add historical context to the current MEI value yield similar results with respect to like efforts pertaining to the RONI. Neither stack up with past super el nino events at this time.

The blurb that FPizz posted was mine from a Phillywx post. I  included with my post the MEI values since 1979, so I  will include them with this post. You can see from the MEI values, ALL strong events were greater than 1 at the May/June reading with 97/98 at 2.4. I  haven't seen a graph for the RONI, and maybe I'm reading your post incorrectly, but the MEI this year clearly does not stack up with past super el nino events thru May/June. In fact, this year's  MEI matches closest to 02/03 & 09/10 to my aged eyes. I agree with your definition/purpose of the MEI, so maybe there's a lag, but it sure is odd that the readings so far have been far from previous strong events and much closer to weak Niños. 

Fyi, if anyone is looking for a 1 stop site for Enso modeling/conditions, this would be it:

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

A strong -PNA setting up for late July, on the 384hr ensemble mean. 

This would negate a lot of the +pna action recently, and if the central-subsurface continues to cool, this fits too.. strong correlation there, validating in LR models right now.