El Nino 2023-2024

[griteater]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

That -VP is well west there.  Here is a VP composite of Dec-Feb for 1987, 2003, and 2010

[raindancewx]

My issue with 2014-15 and 1957-58 has always been how ideally positive the PDO was in those years.

PDO should continue to weaken toward neutral. But I don't really expect it to go super positive. I expect it to stay negative through at least most of the Nov-Apr period.

If nothing else with 1957, the timing of the MJO looks off to me. Major systems in the Gulf in June like Audrey usually occur with specific MJO setups. 1957 is relatively opposite June isn't it? Cold middle US, warm East & West. 1986 June is super cold Texas, super hot Southeast and Western US - also pretty opposite. Both consistent with opposite PDO conditions.

The weeklies for June imply Nino 3.4 was at 28.6C - in which case we're closer to 1997 and 2015 than anything else, at least for a bit. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

 

 

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

 

 

 Can either of you or someone else explain why the H5 of this for DJF in the E US averages ~normal whereas the 2m is ~2.5-3 F AN? These maps don't look like they jibe.

[George001]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 Can either of you or someone else explain why the H5 of this for DJF in the E US averages ~normal whereas the 2m is ~2.5-3 F AN? These maps don't look like they jibe.

The bottom was the forecast for last years winter in June 2022, the top image is the forecast for the 2023-2024 winter.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

My issue with 2014-15 and 1957-58 has always been how ideally positive the PDO was in those years. which case we're closer to 1997 and 2015 than anything else, at least for a bit. 

3 years prior to 57-58, we had the most negative monthly PDO on record until last year. It was a transition time/event break point. 

[snowman19]

I’d really like to know how a strictly El Niño thread suddenly turned into a winter thread with ridiculous clown maps 7, 8, 9 months (Jan, Feb, Mar) from now getting posted. Really? And it’s from the CANSIPS model no less, which did an absolutely horrific job last winter, continuously showing huge blocking in the heart of winter that never came close to happening but that’s besides the point. Talk about going completely and totally off topic with wishcasting fantasies

[roardog]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’d really like to know how a strictly El Niño thread suddenly turned into a winter thread with ridiculous clown maps 7, 8, 9 months (Jan, Feb, Mar) from now getting posted. Really? And it’s from the CANSIPS model no less, which did an absolutely horrific job last winter, continuously showing huge blocking in the heart of winter that never came close to happening but that’s besides the point. Talk about going completely and totally off topic with wishcasting fantasies

This is coming from the person who is banned from the mid Atlantic sub forum and can only post 5 times a day. lol

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, George001 said:

The bottom was the forecast for last years winter in June 2022, the top image is the forecast for the 2023-2024 winter.

Ooops. 

 I just looked at the 2m for 12/23-2/24 for the new run and it does have near normal in the E US at 2m, which is consistent with H5. This run is warmer than the prior run, which had BN centered in the SE. The prior run in the SE had -2 F for DJF vs 0 F on the new run.

 

[snowman19]

This is coming from the person who is banned from the mid Atlantic sub forum and can only post 5 times a day. lol

Incredibly intelligent post from you, as always. Absolutely riveting. The brainiac of the forum. The guy who doesn’t know the difference between facebook and twitter, that says all you need to know right there lol

[brooklynwx99]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’d really like to know how a strictly El Niño thread suddenly turned into a winter thread with ridiculous clown maps 7, 8, 9 months (Jan, Feb, Mar) from now getting posted. Really? And it’s from the CANSIPS model no less, which did an absolutely horrific job last winter, continuously showing huge blocking in the heart of winter that never came close to happening but that’s besides the point. Talk about going completely and totally off topic with wishcasting fantasies

95% of the thread consists of strict analysis of trade winds, Hovmoller plots, and even day by day warming and cooling of 3.4. it gets exhausting at times. god forbid people want to post a model that comes out once a month

if you want to stick to the Paul Roundy super nino Twitter circle jerk, by all means. the +3.0 C BOM super Nino crap is honestly way more in the realm of wishcasting than any model has right now

[George001]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’d really like to know how a strictly El Niño thread suddenly turned into a winter thread with ridiculous clown maps 7, 8, 9 months (Jan, Feb, Mar) from now getting posted. Really? And it’s from the CANSIPS model no less, which did an absolutely horrific job last winter, continuously showing huge blocking in the heart of winter that never came close to happening but that’s besides the point. Talk about going completely and totally off topic with wishcasting fantasies

A lot of posters are interested in the implications that El Niño will have on winter, myself included. That said, yeah these models should be taken with a grain of salt. I wouldn’t say it’s wishcasting though, looking at the temp and precip anomalies the latest cansips is slightly above normal temps and normal precip looking at the DJF average. That would imply a below average-average winter in terms of snowfall, a far cry from many of Bastardis analogs (2002-2003, 2009-2010 for the mid Atlantic, etc). Either way, It’s going to look completely different next run. In my opinion those maps are meaningless unless it’s for the next month, and even that can be way off sometimes. Anyways, back to the developing El Niño, this is going to be a big month for narrowing the goalposts. If Paul Roundy is right, we will see significant warming this month and the nino will get to strong levels. If that happens, a super nino peak becomes much more likely. If the weaker models (ignoring the statistical models forecasting a weak nino, neutral or La Niña, it’s obvious those will be wrong based on the rapid warming in June) like the CFS are right, we could be looking at a moderate peak instead. My gut feeling right now is what will end up happening is somewhere in the middle, but closer to the high end outcome. Something like a +1.7-1.9 ONI peak, not quite super but still a high end strong event. Statistically, when we got this warm by June after coming off a La Niña, those El Niños ended up being quite powerful, with many strong and super ninos in the mix.

[snowman19]

95% of the thread consists of strict analysis of trade winds, Hovmoller plots, and even day by day warming and cooling of 3.4. it gets exhausting at times. god forbid people want to post a model that comes out once a month
if you want to stick to the Paul Roundy super nino Twitter circle jerk, by all means. the +3.0 C BOM super Nino crap is honestly way more in the realm of wishcasting than any model has right now

Glad to know you think Paul Roundy’s musings are a circle jerk. Nice, professional talk. You know what’s hilarious? If I dared to do what you did, went completely off topic in an El Niño thread and posted the CANSIPS showing a torch for the winter….7, 8 and 9 months from now, you and a few others would have nailed me to the cross. I would have been crucified. We would have had the Passion of the Christ on here

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Glad to know you think Paul Roundy’s musings are a circle jerk. Nice, professional talk. You know what’s hilarious? If I dared to do what you did, went completely off topic in an El Niño thread and posted the CANSIPS showing a torch for the winter….7, 8 and 9 months from now you and a few others would have nailed me to the cross. I would have been crucified. We would have had the Passion of the Christ on here

by all means, you can post the CFS. it’s warm for most of the winter. i don’t get the victim complex lmao

and yes, i believe one person, no matter how smart, can be totally wrong. i think the super Nino talk is borderline unfounded at this point, but we’ll see. the evidence is strongly mounting against it 

[brooklynwx99]

and to be perfectly clear, yes, there is a small chance that there is a super Nino. not totally discounting. but it’s just becoming less and less likely and this Nino still bears pretty much zero resemblance to any of the other past super Ninos. 

strong, however, is a good bet

[raindancewx]

Subsurface reading will change from a prelim to final number shortly. But for now 100-180W was +1.46 in June. The 100-180W subsurface was warmer than all Junes except 1997 and 2015 back to 1979.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

Apr/May/June: +1.19/+1.11/+1.46 for 2023

This is a decent match overall. Although not by "tendency" since it misses the weakening in May in 2023.  Subsurface:

Year Apr    May    Jun
1982 0.96 / 1.01 / 1.11
1997 2.17 / 2.01 / 2.25
1982 0.96 / 1.01 / 1.11
2009 0.65 / 0.87 / 1.13
Mean 1.19 / 1.22 / 1.40
2023 1.19 / 1.11 / 1.46

1982 has behaved somewhat similarly in the subtropics, with a rare El Nino Central Mexican heat wave in June spreading to Texas. Actually think this is an OK blend just for the Nino zones. Looks very different/wrong for the Indian Ocean / North Pacific and North Atlantic though. That 120W center for the warmest waters against local averages keeps showing on the models.

1982-83: 28.79 (+2.29C DJF)
1982-83: 28.79 (+2.29C DJF)
1997-98: 28.87 (+2.37C DJF)
2009-10: 28.14 (+1.64C DJF)
Blend:   28.65 (+2.15C DJF) - I'm expecting ~28.3C for winter, +/-0.2C

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

43 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

[raindancewx]

I've uploaded my main analog model here for anyone interested with data through 2022-23.

It took me years to develop, but without the AMO updating any more, it's not going to be usable the way I've used it. It's still very powerful as an analog tool though. It basically allows you to do regressions without math, i.e., what if we had the exact same conditions, but the Atlantic was cold? What if we had the same Atlantic/Pacific, but the El Nino was weaker, etc. What if we had the same El Nino and Pacific and Atlantic, but the prior ENSO event in winter was different?

I've included how I calculated / sourced the variables to the right of the data as well. If you want to help me out, you can tip me on PayPal - I have quite a few other things I can share or develop if anyone tips.

https://t.co/wsurUGcxYv

https://file.io/vfeFLkdfbK1e

 

[griteater]

17 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’d really like to know how a strictly El Niño thread suddenly turned into a winter thread with ridiculous clown maps 7, 8, 9 months (Jan, Feb, Mar) from now getting posted. Really? And it’s from the CANSIPS model no less, which did an absolutely horrific job last winter, continuously showing huge blocking in the heart of winter that never came close to happening but that’s besides the point. Talk about going completely and totally off topic with wishcasting fantasies

I don’t know, I don’t see any harm in discussing how ENSO will impact the weather, whether that’s the hurricane season, or fall, or winter.  That’s the whole point of having weather boards…and the vast majority of interest on weather boards is associated with winter weather. I don’t see anyone in here stating X or Y is definitely going to happen. It’s just discussion born from interest. No harm 

[snowman19]

@Gawx Coral Reef has region 3.4 at +1.0C and region 1+2 at a whopping +3.2C

[so_whats_happening]

The 30 day SOI is just about near 0 when back in end of may beginning of june we had a monthly SOI near -20. There has been quite the string of positive days from the deeply negative two weeks we saw. 

Doesnt look to be a big change to that coming up here either. July not looking like a stellar month.

[GaWx]

On 6/3/2023 at 1:28 AM, GaWx said:

 This is the first time I checked out the CFSv2 weeklies for implied SOI predictions based on Darwin/Tahiti SLP progs. I have no idea how well it can predict these SLPs or if there are any significant biases.
 So, fwiw, here's the mean prediction of the last 48 runs of CFSv2 weeklies:

6/2-9: +5

6/9-16: -12

6/16-23: -16

6/23-30: -9

6/30-7/7: -8

7/7-14: -11

 These would produce a complete June SOI of ~-9 and a first two weeks of July SOI of ~-9.5.

@so_whats_happening

 June SOI ended up at -3 vs the late May-June 2nd average prediction for June from CFS of -9. 

 Highest June SOI of the 7 that preceded a super peak (back to late 1800s) was -7 with a range of -7 to -24. So, this -3 appears underwhelming as far as what predictive powers that the June SOI might have for a super-Nino's chances.

 Looking ahead, these seven super Nino years had a July SOI range of -9 to -21. I don't yet see any strong indication on the models that July will be that low although it is still very early. The average of the last 12 days of CFS runs implies a July SOI near -3 fwiw.

[snowman19]

@Gawx Region 3 is blazing too….over +1.7C now

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx Region 3 is blazing too….over +1.7C now

 That's significantly warmer than even the warmest (warm biased most likely) dataset, CRW, which had only +1.559 in Nino 3 as of July 1st and much warmer than the +1.416 of OISST. Thus, I don't buy Mario Ramirez's assertion that Nino 3 was already at +1.75 as of July 1st. Mario is no Paul Roundy! 

Edit for update: CRW for Nino 3 on July 2nd is warmer but still only +1.596 plus that's a day later. And OISST warmed on July 2nd but only to +1.436.

 By the way, the last two days of TAO five day average updates in 3.4 have shown no change.

[snowman19]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nice -PNA, 594dm block ~7/14. These correlate with a cooler central-subsurface. After a series of +pna's, I wonder if this is evening out, giving less credence to El Nino effecting the N. Hemisphere pattern. It may seem like I'm doing heavy play-by-play, but there are some strong constants right now in the global pattern that I would like to see break. 

[GaWx]

 At no surprise to me, the new BoM is significantly cooler in July and much cooler during Aug-Nov vs the prior run. July is now only at +1.5 vs +1.8 on the prior run. Aug/Sep/Oct are a whopping 0.6 cooler than the prior run while Nov is 0.7 cooler (+2.5 vs +3.2):

 

[snowman19]

 At no surprise to me, the new BoA is significantly cooler in July and much cooler during Aug-Nov vs the prior run. July is now only at +1.5 vs +1.8 on the prior run. Aug/Sep/Oct are a whopping 0.6 cooler than the prior run while Nov is 0.7 cooler (+2.5 vs +3.2):
 

We knew that was happening. The +3.2C was ridiculously overdone. +2.5C is definitely reasonable and within the realm I’m expecting for the November/December peak. I think the ultimate peak is +2.1C - +2.5C and it occurs late November/December

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We knew that was happening. The +3.2C was ridiculously overdone. +2.5C is definitely reasonable and within the realm I’m expecting for the November/December peak. I think the ultimate peak is +2.1C - +2.5C and it occurs late November/December

If this reaches an ONI of 2.5, I'll edit my screen name to snowman19ismydaddy.

Take that to the bank.

[snowman19]

If this reaches an ONI of 2.5, I'll edit my screen name to snowman19ismydaddy.
Take that to the bank.

Remember when you were convinced this year was definitely going to be a Modoki? Or how you thought last winter was going to be a Nino at one point? I’d show some humility at this point