El Nino 2023-2024

[roardog]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

4th day in a row of 3.4 cooling:

CDAS: cooled 0.038 to 0.795

CRW: cooled barely 0.003 to 1.023

OISST: cooled 0.015 to 0.858

Average today -0.019 vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.025, -0.039, -0.022, 0

Latest TAO map is very slightly cooler

Do you have the link to the TAO map? I can’t find the one I’m looking for. Thanks. 

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, roardog said:

Do you have the link to the TAO map? I can’t find the one I’m looking for. Thanks. 

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/sst_wind_5day_drupal.png

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, griteater said:

HM is Anthony Masiello (Twitter). He used to post on AmWx as HM back in the day. There’s a side story as to why he was ‘HM’ on here, but I don’t recall the details behind that 

Appreciate it. For some reason HM was not clicking that was anthony.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This isn't too impressive, The Western region in recent La Nina's match what we are seeing in Nino 3.4, heading into July

We have had these Kelvin waves in recent Springs, anyway

Having warm subsurface starting the previous Oct-Nov has been my par for "what could have been a strong event". 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The N. Pacific has responded moderately, by giving us less -pna's, and a few +pna's recently, but D15 models show an Aleutian ridge, which could correlate with some subsurface cooling. If this continues through late July, I can't see us getting past a Moderate peak. 

https://ibb.co/7kGNKpG  https://ibb.co/0j72JfM

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The +AMO may be something that starts with 15 La Nina's/8 El Nino's, and have more El Nino's vs La Nina's at the end (if it's extended), I fail to see the strong correlation there. 

[raindancewx]

I've been trying to match historical blends to what the CFS and June 1 Canadian run show for winter SSTs. Even with anti-logs in there I've not found a blend I'm satisfied with yet. My guess is the new Canadian run out tomorrow will have a better handle on most features now that we're only ~five months out from the start of winter. Potentially only ~4 months out from the event peak too.

I know the seasonal forecasts showed a weak monsoon out here. But Beatriz in the Pacific should dump a lot of moisture into the monsoon circulation when it scrapes Jalisco and the Sea of Cortez. Monsoon should gain power quite quickly after.

By the way, the AMO time series that went back to 1856 is no longer being updated. Not sure why exactly. Not thrilled about that - the Atlantic looks like the dead cat bounce years in the early 1960 before the AMO flip.

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/AMO/

I am increasingly optimistic for a snowy winter for a large area of the US. The current guess is a severely cold winter somewhere in the SE US, with a pretty warm winter Northern Plains. I've been toying with doing a weak+strong El Nino blend minus the recent La Ninas with +PDO features, with 1992 and 2012 added in for volcanic legacy and low sea ice.

For me to go gung-ho on 1972 as the main analog, I'd like to see the NE US get hit by 1-2 tropical storms or hurricanes ala Agnres and Carrie. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I've found 1957-8 and 1986-7 could be good Winter analogs, Both were the start of 2 year El Nino's, which I see as a possibility if this one doesn't go too strong (it's about potential energy). They also both came off 3-year La Nina/-Neutral. 

[raindancewx]

1957/1986 is pretty good for solar/strength/order but I don't like it for the IOD and AMO setups.

You have to get pretty cute to match the main features the way the Canadian has it. This is one of the blends that's kind of a C+ match. But it's hard to get the western Pacific right with the warmest waters in the Nino zone as shown on the Canadian.

10 blend analogs, 3 blend anti-logs

2015-16 x3
2018-19 x3
1972-73
1997-98
1992-93
2012-13

-2014-15 x3

That's a very similar winter to last year if it developed. But I don't think the June Canadian run has quite the right idea, and my blend isn't a great match anyway.

[snowman19]

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/sst_wind_5day_drupal.png

Looks like some big warming coming up in regions 1+2 and 3, where is subsurface is already incredibly warm. The WWB and DWKW already starting to do their dirty work there. I think 1+2 officially goes over +3.0C very shortly and it should start expanding into region 3. The very east-based nature of this El Niño continues

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I've found 1957-8 and 1986-7 could be good Winter analogs, Both were the start of 2 year El Nino's, which I see as a possibility if this one doesn't go too strong (it's about potential energy). They also both came off 3-year La Nina/-Neutral. 

Likewise.....I feel like 1957 is better, though for both solar and ENSO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

1957/1986 is pretty good for solar/strength/order but I don't like it for the IOD and AMO setups.

You have to get pretty cute to match the main features the way the Canadian has it. This is one of the blends that's kind of a C+ match. But it's hard to get the western Pacific right with the warmest waters in the Nino zone as shown on the Canadian.

10 blend analogs, 3 blend anti-logs

2015-16 x3
2018-19 x3
1972-73
1997-98
1992-93
2012-13

-2014-15 x3

That's a very similar winter to last year if it developed. But I don't think the June Canadian run has quite the right idea, and my blend isn't a great match anyway.

I will defer to you on this, but I thought 1986-1987 was closer to solar min than this year, which is why I felt like 1957 was a closer match.

[snowman19]

Paul Roundy thinks this is going to become a super event, less than an hour ago:

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Paul Roundy thinks this is going to become a super event, less than an hour ago:

It might but it might not.  I can do that too.  

[snowman19]

I will defer to you on this, but I thought 1986-1987 was closer to solar min than this year, which is why I felt like 1957 was a closer match.

Honestly, I think HM is right. The 1925 El Niño is the closest match to this year. It’s actually very close, I would say it’s the best match https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/3/jcli-d-14-00398.1.xml

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Honestly, I think HM is right. The 1925 El Niño is the closest match to this year. It’s actually very close, I would say it’s the best match https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/3/jcli-d-14-00398.1.xml

I don't go back that far.

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

4th day in a row of 3.4 cooling:

CDAS: cooled 0.038 to 0.795

CRW: cooled barely 0.003 to 1.023

OISST: cooled 0.015 to 0.858

Average today -0.019 vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.025, -0.039, -0.022, 0

Latest TAO map is very slightly cooler

1st day in 6 w/warming of avg in 3.4:

CDAS: cooled 0.018 to 0.777

CRW: warmed 0.006 to 1.029

OISST: warmed 0.062 to 0.920

Average today +0.017 vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.019, -0.025, -0.039, -0.022

Latest TAO 5 day average no change

*Corrected for CRW typo!

 

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1st day in 6 w/warming of avg in 3.4:

CDAS: cooled 0.018 to 0.777

CRW: warmed 0.044 to 1.167

OISST: warmed 0.062 to 0.920

Average today +0.029 vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.019, -0.025, -0.039, -0.022

Latest TAO 5 day average no change

 

Why is there such a disparity between these 3? Especially CDAS vs. CRW? Should we take the average of the 3, or toss the outliers?

[snowman19]

Why is there such a disparity between these 3? Especially CDAS vs. CRW? Should we take the average of the 3, or toss the outliers?

DT pointed this out a month ago but the CDAS is notoriously biased too cool and is inaccurate

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Paul Roundy thinks this is going to become a super event, less than an hour ago:

 I respect Paul very much and thus his idea of still there being a likelihood of a super Nino peak should be taken seriously. However, I can't help but bring up how underwhelming the June warming of the 3.4 SSTa has been vs some earlier expectations, especially the BoA (May 31st to June 30th):

OISST: +0.2 C

CRW: +0.3 C

CDAS: +0.2 C

 The last rapid warming was the last week of May/first week of June. So, in my own mind, the chances for a super peak are lower than they were 3 weeks ago. And if July turns out to be similarly sluggish, those chances would drop even more. The BoA has been quite far off and I already feel that its July +1.8 C 3.4 forecast will almost certainly fail pretty miserably.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Why is there such a disparity between these 3? Especially CDAS vs. CRW? Should we take the average of the 3, or toss the outliers?

I had a typo for CRW. Please see corrected post. The CDAS is cold biased and CRW seems to be warm biased. So, I mainly concentrate on daily changes rather than absolutes but favoring OISST for absolute. But even the OISST absolute will vary from the ERSST absolute for ONI related monthly and trimonthly with ERSST recently leaning cooler than OISST. So, there really is no one absolute to look at in my mind.

[griteater]

ENSO 1+2 has risen to its highest value to date on the UK OSTIA data (+3.07).  There are some ongoing westerly wind anomalies in the E Pac so we may see some more warming in that region.

ENSO questions as we move into Fall and Winter:

1) Will the E Pac SST warmth hang on thru winter?

2) How warm does NIno 3.4 get late fall into winter? 

3) Will we see a strongly positive +IOD in the fall / or only slightly positive?

4) How will 1, 2, and 3 affect the location and strength of the low frequency Walker cell uplift & subsidence regions and associated convection?

 

 

 

[thunderbolt]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

ENSO 1+2 has risen to its highest value to date on the UK OSTIA data (+3.07).  There are some ongoing westerly wind anomalies in the E Pac so we may see some more warming in that region.

ENSO questions as we move into Fall and Winter:

1) Will the E Pac SST warmth hang on thru winter?

2) How warm does NIno 3.4 get late fall into winter? 

3) Will we see a strongly positive +IOD in the fall / or only slightly positive?

4) How will 1, 2, and 3 affect the location and strength of the low frequency Walker cell uplift & subsidence regions and associated convection?

 

 

All great questions

[raindancewx]

One nice thing about the dry heat early is it makes my burgers taste better later in the season.

1957-58 (286 sunspots/month July-Jun) and 1986-87 (19) are both bad matches for solar individually, but the blend is solid (152). June 2023 is around 150 sunspots.

I believe the new Canadian will be out tonight. But 7/1 is Canada Day right? So might be a day late for that.

 

[brooklynwx99]

CanSIPS basically has the standard serviceable to good Dec, Jan thaw, then into a favorable winter pattern for Feb and Mar (-NAO, +PNA/-EPO, split flow)

[brooklynwx99]

SSTs dropped pretty significantly compared to the last two runs, and the forcing is still centered over the dateline. so it's not as insane and over the top as the last run, but this is still highly auspicious for anyone that wants a good winter in the E US

[raindancewx]

The models are finally realizing this event is not going to be historically strong - this has been obvious for a while by matching actual SSTs. The Pacific looks a lot more realistic to me on the new run with a weaker El Nino.

The temperature / upper level maps at this point last year were completely wrong for the actual winter pattern. But the SST patterns start to be pretty realistic at this time for winter on the models.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Likewise.....I feel like 1957 is better, though for both solar and ENSO.

3 year -ENSO followed by 2-year +ENSO, 4th year being an El Nino, also includes 02-03 and 14-15.  (4) years since 1950 forward and backward: 57-58, 86-87, 02-03, and 14-15, not a bad list of years if I'm right about our continuation probability next year. 

edit: 76-77 qualifies and minus 54-55. That's a lot of weak events though. You might want to phase out the Weak Nino's. 

86-87 and 14-15 are El Nino, -QBO matches out of the list. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

But the SST patterns start to be pretty realistic at this time for winter on the models.

Global SSTs, chicken and egg. I do know that when a warm/cold front move by, the SSTs warm/cool thereafter. ENSO Is SST, but I wouldn't put much weight on other areas unless it's extreme, or a deviation from upper level pattern.