El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

 For the first time that I can recall this year, the TAO 5 day avg exceeds +1.0 in a portion of the central 3.4.

 

[GaWx]

On 6/23/2023 at 1:43 PM, GaWx said:

Today's update:

-CDAS warmed 0.088 to 0.800

-CRW warmed 0.064 to 1.072

-OISST cooled (barely) 0.003 to 0.999

Average warming 0.050 vs 0.020 yesterday and 0.012 two days ago

 We're pretty much at put up or shut up time as far as whether or not the BoM's rapid warming to +1.8 for July will occur. For that to occur, it pretty much needs to warm steadily for the next five weeks. That's why I'm much more interested than normal in following these daily SST changes.

Today's update: mixed

-CDAS warmed 0.098 to 0.898

-CRW warmed 0.041 to 1.113

-OISST cooled 0.022 to 0.977

 Avg warming 0.039 vs three prior days' warmings of 0.050, 0.020, 0.012

[raindancewx]

Yeah...no monsoon just yet. Not quite enough moisture.

ABQ -

D a t e	Time (mdt)	Wind (mph)	Vis. (mi.)	Weather	Sky Cond.	Temperature (ºF)				Relative Humidity	Wind Chill (°F)	Heat Index (°F)	Pressure		Precipitation (in.)
						Air	Dwpt	6 hour					altimeter (in)	sea level (mb)	1 hr	3 hr	6 hr
								Max.	Min.
24	17:52	W 18 G 29	10.00	Fair	CLR	94	-3	96	81	2%	NA	90	30.08	1009.4
24	16:52	W 14 G 25	10.00	Fair	CLR	96	-0			2%	NA	91	30.09	1009.7
24	15:52	S 8 G 20	10.00	Fair	CLR	92	3			3%	NA	88	30.12	1010.8
24	14:52	SW 9 G 18	10.00	Fair	CLR	91	4			4%	NA	87	30.13	1010.9
24	13:52	Vrbl 7 G 22	10.00	Fair	CLR	88	5			4%	NA	85	30.16	1011.6
24	12:52	SW 10 G 17	10.00	Fair	CLR	86	7			5%	NA	83	30.17	1012.0
24	11:52	SW 5	10.00	Fair	CLR	81	11	83	57	7%	NA	79	30.19	1013.6

[snowman19]

 For the first time that I can recall this year, the TAO 5 day avg exceeds +1.0 in a portion of the central 3.4:

Looks like the warming is continuing….we may actually officially hit +1.0C in region 3.4 by 6/30

[so_whats_happening]

On 6/23/2023 at 5:20 PM, so_whats_happening said:

We should see a nice spike coming up here in the beginning of July. With lack of MJO im curious what the full effects will be. Thing is the weakening in trades is a bit further east than the last time so maybe a more pronounced warming in 1+2, 3, and maybe getting a bump in 3.4 at least in the most eastern portion.

Same areas as mentioned still will be under the potential of warming coming up but models seemed to have backed off much appreciable warming potential which makes sense based off the lack of an MJO impulse. Should lead to a slow incline as we move into July as of now. Speaking of MJO should still be wondering around null for a bit may try to poke out in 2-4 for a brief moment.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

16 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Yeah...no monsoon just yet. Not quite enough moisture.

ABQ -

D a t e	Time (mdt)	Wind (mph)	Vis. (mi.)	Weather	Sky Cond.	Temperature (ºF)				Relative Humidity	Wind Chill (°F)	Heat Index (°F)	Pressure		Precipitation (in.)
						Air	Dwpt	6 hour					altimeter (in)	sea level (mb)	1 hr	3 hr	6 hr
								Max.	Min.
24	17:52	W 18 G 29	10.00	Fair	CLR	94	-3	96	81	2%	NA	90	30.08	1009.4
24	16:52	W 14 G 25	10.00	Fair	CLR	96	-0			2%	NA	91	30.09	1009.7
24	15:52	S 8 G 20	10.00	Fair	CLR	92	3			3%	NA	88	30.12	1010.8
24	14:52	SW 9 G 18	10.00	Fair	CLR	91	4			4%	NA	87	30.13	1010.9
24	13:52	Vrbl 7 G 22	10.00	Fair	CLR	88	5			4%	NA	85	30.16	1011.6
24	12:52	SW 10 G 17	10.00	Fair	CLR	86	7			5%	NA	83	30.17	1012.0
24	11:52	SW 5	10.00	Fair	CLR	81	11	83	57	7%	NA	79	30.19	1013.6

Not El Nino related, but sub-zero dewpoints in June, is that common in ABQ?  I had a job interview across the Rio Grande from Taos 23 years ago, in Winter, and I was able to sour grapes my not getting an offer by dry air irritates my skin, and it would have been very dry.  Nice seeing the Rio Grande as a mountain stream, not a slow moving opaque green river.

[GaWx]

On 6/24/2023 at 1:55 PM, GaWx said:

Today's update: mixed

-CDAS warmed 0.098 to 0.898

-CRW warmed 0.041 to 1.113

-OISST cooled 0.022 to 0.977

 Avg warming 0.039 vs three prior days' warmings of 0.050, 0.020, 0.012

Today's update doesn't yet give any hint that a persistent period of major warming is starting. For the BoM model's +1.8 for July to have a chance to even come close, rapid warming needs to get going very soon. For each day that doesn't happen, the chance drops notably:

-CDAS: warmed 0.018 to 0.916

-CRW: warmed barely 0.001 to 1.114

-OISST: cooled 0.018 to 0.960

Average of no change vs warming of 0.039, 0.050, and 0.020 last 3 days

[snowman19]

Today's update doesn't yet give any hint that a persistent period of major warming is starting. For the BoM model's +1.8 for July to have a chance to even come close, rapid warming needs to get going very soon. For each day that doesn't happen, the chance drops notably:
-CDAS: warmed 0.018 to 0.916
-CRW: warmed barely 0.001 to 1.114
-OISST: cooled 0.018 to 0.960
Average of no change vs warming of 0.039, 0.050, and 0.020 last 3 days

Interestingly, the CDAS warmed today

[GaWx]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Interestingly, the CDAS warmed today

 The comparisons between CDAS and OISST have been weird lately. The prior 48 hours saw the fastest 48 hour CDAS anomaly warming since early March, 0.186. So, I thought that might be a sign of continued significant warming. But during that same 48 hours, OISST actually cooled 0.025 and has now cooled 3 days in a row!

 And, yes, the CDAS warmed modestly the last 24 hours. But it is now slowing to a crawl again at least for now.

[GaWx]

 I'm educatedly guessing that the weekly Nino 3.4 anomaly to be released tomorrow will be +1.0 C. 

 Any other guesses?

[snowman19]

 I'm educatedly guessing that the weekly Nino 3.4 anomaly to be released tomorrow will be +1.0 C. 

 Any other guesses?

A non met just posted on Twitter that the official weekly update for region 3.4 is indeed +1.0C. Trying to get confirmation though, I don’t like posting tweets from non mets unless it is confirmed info. If that’s correct, June will finish warmer than the POAMA initialized at in last week’s update and we will also be warmer than 1997 was at this point in time….

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A non met just posted on Twitter that the official weekly update for region 3.4 is indeed +1.0C. Trying to get confirmation though, I don’t like posting tweets from non mets unless it is confirmed info. If that’s correct, June will finish warmer than the POAMA initialized at in last week’s update and we will also be warmer than 1997 was at this point in time….

1. Good early find! Thank you. That Tweet is correct. Upon reading your post, I just confirmed it is up to +1.0 C. 

2. Regarding the BoM June initialization of +0.9 in last week's update, it being at +1.0 in the latest OISST based weekly update doesn't necessarily mean June will end up at +1.0 when fully averaged out. Why? On OISST, June started out at only 0.73. Also, of the 25 June days to date, only 6 have been warmer than +1.0 while 19 have been cooler. I see that 10 of the 25 have been cooler than +0.9 vs 15 warmer than +0.9. I have 6/1-25 averaging in the low +0.9s per OISST. So, whether June ends up at +0.9 or at +1.0 on OISST is still unknown. Plus, the ONI is based on ERSST, not OISST, meaning more uncertainty where June as a whole will end up.

[GaWx]

@snowman19

 Also, Nino 1+2 just came out at a new high for the year of +2.9 vs +2.7 on last week's release. Nino 3 is up to +1.4 from +1.2 while Nino 4 has risen to +0.7 from +0.6.

[snowman19]

1. Good early find! Thank you. That Tweet is correct. Upon reading your post, I just confirmed it is up to +1.0 C. 
2. Regarding the BoM June initialization of +0.9 in last week's update, it being at +1.0 in the latest OISST based weekly update doesn't necessarily mean June will end up at +1.0 when fully averaged out. Why? On OISST, June started out at only 0.73. Also, of the 25 June days to date, only 6 have been warmer than +1.0 while 19 have been cooler. I see that 10 of the 25 have been cooler than +0.9 vs 15 warmer than +0.9. I have 6/1-25 averaging in the low +0.9s per OISST. So, whether June ends up at +0.9 or at +1.0 on OISST is still unknown. Plus, the ONI is based on ERSST, not OISST, meaning more uncertainty where June as a whole will end up.

IMO, June definitely finishes at least +0.9C, possibly +1.0C…. but we’ll see

[bluewave]

We are getting to the time of the year when Nino 1+2 departures have less influence due to the cooler SSTs. Notice how the WPAC warm pool continues to run the forcing show due to the peak SSTs around +30C. So Nino 4 is much warmer than 1+2. 
 

 

[Terpeast]

To me, that means east based is off the table for now. Nino3.4 probably still has some warming to do and pull that forcing a smudge east over the dateline. Then we’ll be in good shape for winter if that pans out. 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We are getting to the time of the year when Nino 1+2 departures have less influence due to the cooler SSTs. Notice how the WPAC warm pool continues to run the forcing show due to the peak SSTs around +30C. So Nino 4 is much warmer than 1+2. 
 

 

 For those who don't know, the warmest normals for 1+2 are in March, when they peak near 26.6 C. The coolest normals are in Sept, near 20.7 C. So, 1+2 normals have a wide range of 5.9 C.

 In contrast, Nino 4 has a much narrower range of normals between the peak of 28.9 C in May/June and the low of 28.0 in Feb. So, the range is a mere 0.9 C. Also, note that normals for Nino 4 are much warmer all year round vs 1+2 with the widest differential of near 8C around Sept and the lowest differential of 1.6 C in March. It is very rare for 1+2 actuals to be as warm or barely warmer than Nino 4.

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 For those who don't know, the warmest normals for 1+2 are in March, when they peak near 26.6 C. The coolest normals are in Sept, near 20.7 C. So, 1+2 normals have a wide range of 5.9 C.

 In contrast, Nino 4 has a much narrower range of normals between the peak of 28.9 C in May/June and the low of 28.0 in Feb. So, the range is a mere 0.9 C. Also, note that normals for Nino 4 are much warmer all year round vs 1+2 with the widest differential of near 8C around Sept and the lowest differential of 1.6 C in March. It is very rare for 1+2 actuals to be as warm or barely warmer than Nino 4.

Yeah, Nino 1+2 and 3 aren’t having the same forcing influence like they did at this point in 1997 due to the WPAC being so much warmer.

 

[GaWx]

On 6/25/2023 at 2:14 PM, GaWx said:

Today's update doesn't yet give any hint that a persistent period of major warming is starting. For the BoM model's +1.8 for July to have a chance to even come close, rapid warming needs to get going very soon. For each day that doesn't happen, the chance drops notably:

-CDAS: warmed 0.018 to 0.916

-CRW: warmed barely 0.001 to 1.114

-OISST: cooled 0.018 to 0.960

Average of no change vs warming of 0.039, 0.050, and 0.020 last 3 days

Today's update: all 3 cooled

-CDAS cooled 0.018 to 0.898

-CRW cooled 0.030 to 1.084

-OISST cooled 0.017 to 0.943

Average of .022 cooler vs no change, +0.039, and +0.050 the prior 3 days.

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

1957-1958 was east based? Not in my book.

Let this one mimic that event.....I would take it.

[snowman19]

1957-1958 was east based? Not in my book.
Let this one mimic that event.....I would take it.

I have to look into how that year started, it may have had an east lean at first but no it didn’t definitely end up that way. I doubt it started as east-based as this one

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I have to look into how that year started, it may have had an east lean at first but no it didn’t definitely end up that way. I doubt it started as east-based as this one

It began as east based and shifted.....it was always more central focused, though. Not sure what Huges is talking about...wasn't east.

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

Today's update: all 3 cooled

-CDAS cooled 0.018 to 0.898

-CRW cooled 0.030 to 1.084

-OISST cooled 0.017 to 0.943

Average of .022 cooler vs no change, +0.039, and +0.050 the prior 3 days.

For the 2nd day in a row, all 3 cooled in 3.4:

-CDAS: cooled 0.018 to 0.880

-CRW: cooled 0.034 to 1.050

-OISST: cooled 0.066 to 0.877

Average today of 0.039 cooler vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.022, 0, +0.039, and +0.050.

For first time in weeks and possibly even months, OISST is cooler (albeit barely) than CDAS!

[griteater]

Weak MJO amplitude combined with the low frequency El Nino uplift hanging out in the W Pacific should prevent robust low-level westerly wind anomalies and robust SST warmups from occurring in the Nino regions over the next few weeks

 

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Weak MJO amplitude combined with the low frequency El Nino uplift hanging out in the W Pacific should prevent robust low-level westerly wind anomalies and robust SST warmups from occurring in the Nino regions over the next few weeks

 

 

 IF your thinking that there will likely not be any robust Nino SST warming over the next few weeks were to verify, the BoM's +1.8 in 3.4 for July will bust badly. The odds of a significant bust too warm continues to increase each day that sustained significant warming doesn't occur.

 The way things look today, it is going to be tough for OISST 3.4 to exceed +1.0 on July 1st. Assuming it starts July at +1.0, the math behind a +1.8 July would require an enormous warming to well up into the +2s by late month. I highly doubt as of now based on history that that kind of warming will happen.

 What do others think?

[roardog]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 IF your thinking that there will likely not be any robust Nino SST warming over the next few weeks were to verify, the BoM's +1.8 in 3.4 for July will bust badly. The odds of a significant bust too warm continues to increase each day that no sustained significant warming doesn't occur.

 The way things look today, it is going to be tough for OISST 3.4 to exceed +1.0 on July 1st. Assuming it starts July at +1.0, the math behind a +1.8 July would require an enormous warming to well up into the +2s by late month. I highly doubt as of now based on history that that kind of warming will happen.

 What do others think?

How is the soi looking going into early July?