El Nino 2023-2024

[George001]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1.5-2.0 ONI is plenty high enough to cancel winter, too, given the right circumstances.

Yeah I’m not buying the super nino talk, but that is exactly why I have low expectations for this coming winter. Even strong ninos arent very good for New England. I would be more excited if I lived in the mid Atlantic. 

[so_whats_happening]

Evolution of course will never be the same but we can get some clues from past instances to maybe help out with future forecasts.

This is a gif of 1997 subsurface evolution and 2023 so far, definitely have shown a longer gif before of the 97, 15, and 23 (so far) evolutions before. You can see yes there are similarities the warmth extending from WPAC to EPAC but the biggest difference and curious how this plays out, the warm pool not being nearly as strong as 97 comparing WPAC to EPAC gives me pause at what this outcome could actually be. In 1997 we saw the subsurface have warmer anomalies than the eastern portion before the whole thing went full tilt and caused what we know. This go around the EPAC warm pool is warmer than the subsurface waters now coming from the WPAC. I wonder if this will play a role in less umphh behind it as it does eventually push east? We also still are not developing the classic cool/cold anomalies in the subsurface we have seen with numerous El Ninos of past. 

I wonder is it possible we have pushed the heating potential limit and now we start to see the move westward of surface temps as we weaken trades in 3.4 which will continue to warm, sort of like a slow bleed as we head toward Fall. We have about 2 weeks until we get to see the results of the June 2023 subsurface. Going forward the trade wind halt and even slight reversal should provide another bounce up come mid July latest. What happens after that may be another fun one to watch barring this forecast for reversal is correct.

[so_whats_happening]

8 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Evolution of course will never be the same but we can get some clues from past instances to maybe help out with future forecasts.

This is a gif of 1997 subsurface evolution and 2023 so far, definitely have shown a longer gif before of the 97, 15, and 23 (so far) evolutions before. You can see yes there are similarities the warmth extending from WPAC to EPAC but the biggest difference and curious how this plays out, the warm pool not being nearly as strong as 97 comparing WPAC to EPAC gives me pause at what this outcome could actually be. In 1997 we saw the subsurface have warmer anomalies than the eastern portion before the whole thing went full tilt and caused what we know. This go around the EPAC warm pool is warmer than the subsurface waters now coming from the WPAC. I wonder if this will play a role in less umphh behind it as it does eventually push east? We also still are not developing the classic cool/cold anomalies in the subsurface we have seen with numerous El Ninos of past. 

I wonder is it possible we have pushed the heating potential limit and now we start to see the move westward of surface temps as we weaken trades in 3.4 which will continue to warm, sort of like a slow bleed as we head toward Fall. We have about 2 weeks until we get to see the results of the June 2023 subsurface. Going forward the trade wind halt and even slight reversal should provide another bounce up come mid July latest. What happens after that may be another fun one to watch barring this forecast for reversal is correct.

Feel the lack of subsurface cooling in the WPAC is really playing a role in keeping a lid on things combined with a still prominent -PDO pattern (this does look to be weakening over time now).

Here is CPC May to mid June subsurface again the EPAC is now more anomalous than the now near CPAC warm anomalies in the subsurface. Again not say we cant see a rather decent reversal in the WPAC but to what extent and when does this occur? Most El Nino events that I have access to (until 1979 for subsurface) show we already would have had a negative anomaly in the WPAC by now.

2009 subsurface had this in some similar evolution, this year albeit is definitely stronger anomaly wise but the evolution is rather interesting to follow.

 

[so_whats_happening]

Again to my point above it is not a perfect evolution and honestly seeing things happen 1:1 would be incredible to witness at some point (im sure at one time things of similar evolution have happened). Here is the 2009 evolution again anomalies are off but it has a similar look thus far with warming and the extension of the warm tongue staying out west for quite some time until fall and winter. Maybe we see a similar idea and maybe this is why some models are showing a crazy peak? Time will tell of course.

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its tough to bet against a raindance composite comprised of 2 of the worst east coast winters minus a good one (he has been exemplary the past few years), but it would be insane for me to see a sixth consecutive well below average snowfall year. 

Something is going to give.

Idk about 72/73 which was more bad luck than anything btw. Today's climate is drastically different than back then too. 

Using composites that far back in today's rapid CC era may not work out. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Idk about 72/73 which was more bad luck than anything btw. Today's climate is drastically different than back then too. 

Using composites that far back in today's rapid CC era may not work out. 

I agree RE some bad luck....gotta be some positive regression soon.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

But you said we were getting how many massive snowstorms this past winter from November to March? Remember all your perfect, historic, amazing, record, omg, unprecedented setups? Lol

Well, ordinarily NAO blocks like that do produce....its the equivalent of you posting all of these tweets reporting about a -30 SOI reading that just never translates to an intensifying el nino. Doesn't mean you were wrong, it was just an anomalous pattern with an unlikely outcome.

[snowman19]

the setups were amazing. too bad we didn't get anything, it happens. however, there were two massive storms in the windows both myself and many others posted about, one of which was historic in parts of New England and the Hudson Valley
at least I'm formulating my own thoughts based on pattern recognition instead of breathlessly reposting tweets that aren't even my own
just stop lmao there's a reason why you're five-posted

5 months of hearing about perfect setups and guaranteed locked and loaded major snowstorms. The boy who cried wolf lol

[thunderbolt]

23 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The CFS has been trying and failing miserably to weaken regions 3 and 1+2 since the end of April. The forecasts support regions 1+2 and 3 warming even more going into July

You know what else is been failing miserably is the Bom for region 3.4. It’s bin horrible. From back in April to the beginning of July but we’ll see at the end of when it peaks What models did the best as we look back

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

5 months of hearing about perfect setups and guaranteed locked and loaded major snowstorms. The boy who cried wolf lol

I do agree that by the second half of the season, any enthusiasm about a given pattern should have been more measured given the seasonal trend that became evident.....but you (collective) also need to remain mindful of potentially falling into the persistence forecasting trap. 

[snowman19]

I do agree that by the second half of the season, any enthusiasm about a given pattern should have been more measured given the seasonal trend that became evident.....but you (collective) also need to remain mindful of potentially falling into the persistence forecasting trap. 

Even if we go full on 97-98 you can’t rule out a real lucky well timed KU bomb with thread the needle cold/arctic. Back during that winter a bunch of the big coastal storms were 37 degrees and rain

[40/70 Benchmark]

What Growing Consensus for Strong El Nino May Mean for Winter | Eastern Mass Weather

[brooklynwx99]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

5 months of hearing about perfect setups and guaranteed locked and loaded major snowstorms. The boy who cried wolf lol

i didn't guarantee anything. i said that the patterns had a much higher than normal threat for a major snowstorm, and they certainly did hold that threat. those threats did not pan out, which happens from time to time

if you cannot wrap your head around the concept of probability and risk, I don't really know what to tell you

[GaWx]

On 6/21/2023 at 3:02 PM, GaWx said:

Today's update has slowed the warming again:

-CDAS warmed 0.004 to 0.721   
-Coral Reef Watch warmed 0.031 to 0.965   
-OISST warmed 0.002 to 0.972

So, averaged warming today is only 0.012 vs yesterday's 0.041 with 2 of the 3 hardly moving.

Today's update

-CDAS cooled 0.009 to 0.712 as of the 24 hours ending at 6Z, but has since had a sudden rise to 0.727 as of 12Z

-Coral Reef Watch warmed 0.043 to 1.008

-OISST warmed 0.030 to 1.002

Average warming 0.020

 

[snowman19]

Today's update
-CDAS cooled 0.009 to 0.712 as of the 24 hours ending at 6Z, but has since had a sudden rise to 0.727 as of 12Z
-Coral Reef Watch warmed 0.043 to 1.008
-OISST warmed 0.030 to 1.002
Average warming 0.020
 

Looks like NOAA is expecting a strong El Niño

[snowman19]

This El Niño event is building entirely in the Eastern Pacific….something we haven’t been used to since 1980

[raindancewx]

On 3/28/2023 at 8:02 PM, raindancewx said:

Not planning to do a Summer outlook this year. There are certain general patterns already fairly evident. The snow pack in the West will delay the advancement of the monsoon from old Mexico into the US.

In order to fully melt off the Western snow pack, it should get very hot late Spring/early Summer. But it will be brief, and then the rest of the Summer shouldn't be too bad.

No real sign of the monsoon yet for us. The heat wave in the Central Mexican highlands is starting to break though. That often precedes wetter periods here by 1-3 weeks. Here is one of the towns in Hidalgo that averages 75/51 for high/low temps in June at 8,000 feet. "Cool" to see 40s showing up in their forecasts again. I know people worry about the "global south" with climates warming, but mountains are still mountains. We should do our annual post Summer solstice flirtation with 100 degree temps here. Fortunately, the dryness remains, so lows are still between 58 and 70 most of the time. It's only in the 90s even on a record hot/ near record day here for 6-12 hours, even right at the solstice.

[snowman19]

What Growing Consensus for Strong El Nino May Mean for Winter | Eastern Mass Weather

Good write up. Just my opinion, I think we see a late November/December peak and I think it peaks a little higher than you, probably in the neighborhood of +2.1C - +2.5C. The POAMA is obviously overdone, but I can definitely see it peaking above +2. And the Modoki wishcasting fantasies of the usual suspects are lol worthy

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Good write up. Just my opinion, I think we see a late November/December peak and I think it peaks a little higher than you, probably in the neighborhood of +2.1C - +2.5C. The POAMA is obviously overdone, but I can definitely see it peaking above +2. And the Modoki wishcasting fantasies of the usual suspects are lol worthy

Definitely not outlandish. We will see....and I agree, while it could end up biased slightly west as a basin wide deal, a traditional modoki is very unlikely. But a westward leaning basin-wide deal like 1957-1958, 1986-1987 or 1965-1966 is very possible. I think that the polar domain will make or break or break this season. If you look at your favorite winter seasons from that composite, 1991-1992, 1994-1995 and 2006-2007 all had a very strong PV, even though the latter two weakened late. I don't think we will see a repeat of last season with the fruitless NAO. A reoccurrence of that caliber of blocking next season would yield much different results.

[snowman19]

Definitely not outlandish. We will see....and I agree, while it could end up biased slightly west as a basin wide deal, a traditional modoki is very unlikely. But a westward leaning basin-wide deal like 1957-1958, 1986-1987 or 1965-1966 is very possible. I think that the polar domain will make or break or break this season. If you look at your favorite winter seasons from that composite, 1991-1992, 1994-1995 and 2006-2007 all had a very strong PV, even though the latter two weakened late. I don't think we will see a repeat of last season with the fruitless NAO. A reoccurrence of that caliber of blocking next season would yield much different results.

While +2 and over will most likely be a torch winter overall, the chances for a KU bomb up the coast (i.e. 1983, 2016) will be greatly increased because of the raging STJ on roids that will be present. Just need a very well timed, good luck arctic cold shot. Thread the needle

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

While +2 and over will most likely be a torch winter overall, the chances for a KU bomb up the coast (i.e. 1983, 2016) will be greatly increased because of the raging STJ on roids that will be present. Just need a very well timed, good luck arctic cold shot. Thread the needle

Not necessarily if that gap between RONI and ONI remains large. If you read my blog, you will see that the super nino years had RONI numbers between like .4 and .6 already...we are still in negative territory...similar to 1986 and 2009. Warmer than average probably, sure.

[griteater]

SST Anomaly Loop from late March to mid June

[griteater]

AI model from Dr. Ken Takahashi comparing eastern Pacific warming for 97-98 vs. 23-24 forecast...

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

>+7c now in the subsurface of TAO/Triton maps. What I think is interesting is that the western subsurface has warmed back to +1c, when most of the Stronger El Nino years were colder in the western regions by now. A 2nd year Neutral/El nino could be more likely. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

>+7c now in the subsurface of TAO/Triton maps. What I think is interesting is that the western subsurface has warmed back to +1c, when most of the Stronger El Nino years were colder in the western regions by now. A 2nd year Neutral/El nino could be more likely. 

The subsurface below regions 1+2 and 3 is an inferno now and still warming. As you mentioned, the +7C subsurface anomalies showing up on the TAO are just staggering. Now, it looks like a good bet that TC’s are going to start forming, which promotes WWBs behind them, only serving to enhance Nino development/Bjerknes feedback even further with DWKWs. We are going to see the Eastern Pacific regions heat up even more in the very near future, that should expand west into region 3.4 as well

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

While +2 and over will most likely be a torch winter overall, the chances for a KU bomb up the coast (i.e. 1983, 2016) will be greatly increased because of the raging STJ on roids that will be present. Just need a very well timed, good luck arctic cold shot. Thread the needle

 1. Whereas the chance for a torch during a super Nino in the NE is notable, keep in mind that THE strongest on record (1877-8) as well as 1888-9 weren't torches at all with them both near normal at NYC and Boston. At NYC/Boston, Feb of 1889 was the 16th coldest of 155 Febs back to 1869/19th coldest of 151 Febs back to 1873! Also, 1965-6 and 1972-3 were only +2 at NYC, not torches. Furthermore, at Boston 1965-6 and 1972-3 were near normal. Thus, only 3 of the 7 were torches at both places with 4 of 7 near to slightly AN at NYC and 4 of 7 near normal at Boston.

 2. For the SE (using mainly ATL):

-1877-8, 1888-9, 1972-3, 1982-3, and 1997-8 were all near normal 

-1965-6 was cold due mainly to a very cold Jan

-2015-6 was the only torch of the 7 and that was entirely due to the warmest Dec on record as Jan and Feb were near normal.

3. Therefore, I feel that the idea of super Nino likely equals torch is overdone for the E US with ~equal chances of no torch in NE and high chances of no torch in SE. 

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

Today's update

-CDAS cooled 0.009 to 0.712 as of the 24 hours ending at 6Z, but has since had a sudden rise to 0.727 as of 12Z

-Coral Reef Watch warmed 0.043 to 1.008

-OISST warmed 0.030 to 1.002

Average warming 0.020

 

Today's update:

-CDAS warmed 0.088 to 0.800

-CRW warmed 0.064 to 1.072

-OISST cooled (barely) 0.003 to 0.999

Average warming 0.050 vs 0.020 yesterday and 0.012 two days ago

 We're pretty much at put up or shut up time as far as whether or not the BoM's rapid warming to +1.8 for July will occur. For that to occur, it pretty much needs to warm steadily for the next five weeks. That's why I'm much more interested than normal in following these daily SST changes.

[so_whats_happening]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

Today's update:

-CDAS warmed 0.088 to 0.800

-CRW warmed 0.064 to 1.072

-OISST cooled (barely) 0.003 to 0.999

Average warming 0.050 vs 0.020 yesterday and 0.012 two days ago

 We're pretty much at put up or shut up time as far as whether or not the BoM's rapid warming to +1.8 for July will occur. For that to occur, it pretty much needs to warm steadily for the next five weeks. That's why I'm much more interested than normal in following these daily SST changes.

We should see a nice spike coming up here in the beginning of July. With lack of MJO im curious what the full effects will be. Thing is the weakening in trades is a bit further east than the last time so maybe a more pronounced warming in 1+2, 3, and maybe getting a bump in 3.4 at least in the most eastern portion.

[snowman19]

We should see a nice spike coming up here in the beginning of July. With lack of MJO im curious what the full effects will be. Thing is the weakening in trades is a bit further east than the last time so maybe a more pronounced warming in 1+2, 3, and maybe getting a bump in 3.4 at least in the most eastern portion.

+7C subsurface anomalies showing up now in regions 1+2 and 3: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/TAO_5Day_EQ_xz_Anom_Comp.gif

[snowman19]