40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: This is consistent with the EMI (El Nino Modoki Index) forecast from Jamstec, which has the el nino steadily translating westward as we approach the cold season. A slightly weaker version of 2015-2016 seems a decent bet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 The CFS has been trying and failing miserably to weaken regions 3 and 1+2 since the end of April. The forecasts support regions 1+2 and 3 warming even more going into July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 Today's SOI unexpectedly for me fell back to a new low for the month, -27, bringing down the MTD average to -7. However, the sharp rise is still coming through June 25th. Reaching +15+ for a day or two still can't be ruled out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 Get ready for a big jump in regions 1+2 and 3. The east-based warming continues…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Get ready for a big jump in regions 1+2 and 3. The east-based warming continues…. As was discussed earlier in the thread, the CFS v2 is showing an almost immediate plunge in the 1.2 anomalies. Looking at the subsurface, you wouldn’t expect that. Even though all models have flaws, there must be some reason it’s forecasting an immediate decrease even with that warm subsurface. These aren’t 1975 primitive models. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 On 4/10/2023 at 10:47 AM, bluewave said: This paper does a good job classifying the various El Niño events. In terms of snow and colder temperatures, the Modoki events in 02-03, 09-10, and 14-15 were the forum favorites. Even the basin wide super in 15-16 had a CP forcing lean later on with the record Nino 4 SSTs. This gave us around NYC the record snowstorm in late January and below 0° in February. Notice how much further west the forcing was than the 97-98 super. So each one of these events has unique characteristics. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1911130116 I have inferred from this article that the west Pacific warm pool is probably why this el nino isn't going to remain east-based, which is congruent with what others have been saying about the forcing getting pulled west.. "In the present work, consideration of the onset and evolution of El Niño events (Figs. 1 and 2) has led to the innovative classification of El Niño diversity, and uncovered an El Niño onset regime change from an EP origin to a western Pacific origin in the late 1970s (Fig. 3). The onset changes and more frequent occurrence of the extreme events in the past 4 decades arise from a background warming in the equatorial WP and the associated enhanced zonal SST gradients in the equatorial CP" "the change of El Niño in the late 1970s coincides with a rapid warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, suggesting that the recent rapid global warming may have had an impact on the observed El Niño changes." 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 i have no idea how someone can look at this data and say that a super Nino is likely. the CFS has trended towards a strong event and the IRI dynamical models also paint the same picture. the BOM is a massive outlier and shouldn't be seriously considered the trade winds during this event have also had zero similarities to events like 2015-16 or 1997-98. i just don't see the support for that kind of solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 i have no idea how someone can look at this data and say that a super Nino is likely. the CFS has trended towards a strong event and the IRI dynamical models also paint the same picture. the BOM is a massive outlier and shouldn't be seriously considered the trade winds during this event have also had zero similarities to events like 2015-16 or 1997-98. i just don't see the support for that kind of solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Its going to be 2.0 or under....we went through the same thing with all of the "Oh no, Godzilla-la nina is coming" tweets...it ended up with a 1.0 ONI peak....people always get carried away with ENSO. I know you never explicitly supported that, but it feeds into the frenzy. 1.5-2.0 ONI is healthy enough, but the 3.0 talk is patently absurd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 1.5-2.0 ONI is plenty high enough to cancel winter, too, given the right circumstances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 1.5-2.0 ONI is plenty high enough to cancel winter, too, given the right circumstances. I think if we get a 1.5-2C event with the forcing between 160-190W where the models have it, it's going to be a good winter. I don't think it's ridiculous to see something like the NMME or CanSIPS play out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I think if we get a 1.5-2C event with the forcing between 160-190W where the models have it, it's going to be a good winter. I don't think it's ridiculous to see something like the NMME or CanSIPS play out I agree....I'm just saying that theoretically speaking, an ONI in that range is still plenty strong enough to mean a warm winter...IOW, I am not rejecting the super el nino idea out of bias for my winter binky. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I think if we get a 1.5-2C event with the forcing between 160-190W where the models have it, it's going to be a good winter. I don't think it's ridiculous to see something like the NMME or CanSIPS play out Both things can be true. We can get 2 warm months and 1 cold month, average warm overall, and still get a productive winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Both things can be true. We can get 2 warm months and 1 cold month, average warm overall, and still get a productive winter. That is probably the most likely outcome....the warm period will likely be more protracted and anomalous than the cold period, but no one will care if we get PD III. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 Its tough to bet against a raindance composite comprised of 2 of the worst east coast winters minus a good one (he has been exemplary the past few years), but it would be insane for me to see a sixth consecutive well below average snowfall year. Something is going to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its tough to bet against a raindance composite comprised of 2 of the worst east coast winters minus a good one (he has been exemplary the past few years), but it would be insane for me to see a sixth consecutive well below average snowfall year. Something is going to give. Raindance seems to be leaning toward a cold start to the winter and a torch to end it in the east which would be opposite what you would expect in a strong Nino with the exception of 1972. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 31 minutes ago, roardog said: Raindance seems to be leaning toward a cold start to the winter and a torch to end it in the east which would be opposite what you would expect in a strong Nino with the exception of 1972. We are due for wintery December, too. December 1997 kind of did that, too....there was a huge snow event over interior SNE just before xmas. That could be due to wave lengths shortening. too...sometimes you can get away with a forcing regime on the book ends that is awful mid-winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 22 hours ago, GaWx said: Well, the last two days' averages have shown warming, especially today: -CDAS warmed 0.040 to 0.717 -Coral Reef Watch warmed 0.035 to 0.934 -OISST warmed 0.048 to 0.970 Average warming today was .041 Today's update has slowed the warming again: -CDAS warmed 0.004 to 0.721 -Coral Reef Watch warmed 0.031 to 0.965 -OISST warmed 0.002 to 0.972 So, averaged warming today is only 0.012 vs yesterday's 0.041 with 2 of the 3 hardly moving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 16 minutes ago, GaWx said: Today's update has slowed the warming again: -CDAS warmed 0.004 to 0.721 -Coral Reef Watch warmed 0.031 to 0.965 -OISST warmed 0.002 to 0.972 So, averaged warming today is only 0.012 vs yesterday's 0.041 with 2 of the 3 hardly moving. Kudos to you super-attentive types......I just can't get up for the resultant thermal nuances of every whale queef over the equatorial Pacific in June. October, I'm all in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: i have no idea how someone can look at this data and say that a super Nino is likely. the CFS has trended towards a strong event and the IRI dynamical models also paint the same picture. the BOM is a massive outlier and shouldn't be seriously considered the trade winds during this event have also had zero similarities to events like 2015-16 or 1997-98. i just don't see the support for that kind of solution Beside the BoM very likely looking to end up ~0.3 too warm in 3.4 in June on the prior two runs and it being a warm outlier, another thing in your thinking's favor is that the May Euro hasn't been too cool for ASO since way back in 2004! The May Euro had ASO at "only" +1.78 vs the May BoM's +2.53. The June Euro warmed ASO but only very slightly to +1.83. It then rises only to barely into super range at +2.04 for OND. This suggests to me that the Euro's low end super peak (+2.0 to +2.2) is still about the warmest I currently see having a reasonable chance with high end strong (+1.7 to +1.9) the most likely in my mind as of now. Also, keep in mind that converting to RONI would take away ~0.3 based on the last two trimonthlies. So, for RONI, I'm currently at +1.4 to +1.6 for most likely and +1.7 to +1.9 as about the warmest based on reasonable chances. These educated guesses will continue to be subject to change as things continue to evolve obviously. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 1 minute ago, GaWx said: Beside the BoM very likely looking to end up ~0.3 too warm in 3.4 in June on the prior two runs and it being a warm outlier, another thing in your thinking's favor is that the May Euro hasn't been too warm for ASO since way back in 2004! The May Euro had ASO at "only" +1.78 vs the May BoM's +2.53. The June Euro warmed but only very slightly to +1.83. It rises only to barely into super range at +2.04 for OND. This suggests to me that a low end super peak (+2.0 to +2.2) is still about the warmest I currently see having a reasonable chance with high end strong (+1.7 to +1.9) the most likely in my mind as of now. Also, keep in mind that converting to RONI would take away ~0.3 based on the last two trimonthlies. So, for RONI, I'm currently at +1.4 to +1.6 for most likely and +1.7 to +1.9 as about the warmest based on reasonable chances. These educated guesses will continue to be subject to change as things continue to evolve obviously. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 The MAM RONI was .54 in 2015 (MAM 1997 .46, MAM 1982 .58, MAM 1972 .66) and it currently sits at -.21 for MAM 2023. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Kudos to you super-attentive types......I just can't get up for the resultant thermal nuances of every whale queef over the equatorial Pacific in June. October, I'm all in. Thanks. The main reason I've been following the daily 3.4 SST anomalies the last few weeks way more closely than I ever have and will try to continue at least through the next few weeks is to try to get the best feel possible for which models are doing the best for the current month. This is especially in light of the unusually large disparity between the BoM and Euro/CFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: Thanks. The main reason I've been following the daily 3.4 SST anomalies the last few weeks way more closely than I ever have and will try to continue at least through the next few weeks is to try to get the best feel possible for which models are doing the best for the current month. This is especially in light of the unusually large disparity between the BoM and Euro/CFS. Looks like overall trends from May to June were just a hair stronger (IRI) and more east-based (Jamstec).Jamestec has slowed the progression westward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like overall trends from May to June were just a hair stronger (IRI) and more east-based (Jamstec).Jamestec has slowed the progression westward. the EMI really does increase as we head into the winter... the Jamstec has a mean DJF ENSO of around 1.2, which is on the weaker side, but it's more reasonable than 3C IMO if we keep the Nino under 2C, i will be pretty excited. there's definitely reason to be optimistic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The MAM RONI was .54 in 2015 (MAM 1997 .46, MAM 1982 .58, MAM 1972 .66) and it currently sits at -.21 for MAM 2023. Even from an MEI standpoint....2015 was already 1.2, 1997 1.1, 1982 .7 and 1972 .8. We are presently at -0.1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Even from an MEI standpoint....2015 was already 1.2, 1997 1.1, 1982 .7 and 1972 .8. We are presently at -0.1. yeah but Paul Roundy said 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah but Paul Roundy said But you said we were getting how many massive snowstorms this past winter from November to March? Remember all your perfect, historic, amazing, record, omg, unprecedented setups? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 28 minutes ago, snowman19 said: But you said we were getting how many massive snowstorms this past winter from November to March? Remember all your perfect, historic, amazing, record, omg, unprecedented setups? Lol the setups were amazing. too bad we didn't get anything, it happens. however, there were two massive storms in the windows both myself and many others posted about, one of which was historic in parts of New England and the Hudson Valley at least I'm formulating my own thoughts based on pattern recognition instead of breathlessly reposting tweets that aren't even my own just stop lmao there's a reason why you're five-posted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 9 hours ago, snowman19 said: The CFS has been trying and failing miserably to weaken regions 3 and 1+2 since the end of April. The forecasts support regions 1+2 and 3 warming even more going into July I guess we’ll see when it comes to October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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