El Nino 2023-2024

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but it is my understanding that CDAS, which stands for Climate Data Assimilation System, is actually the model core for the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Or at least that is what the NCEP/NCAR built upon. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is known to be subpar. But I don't think that is justification for dismissing it outright. I do wonder if it wouldn't be better for Levi Cowan to use a more accepted product like OISST or ERSST though.

The CPC uses OISST for its weekly SST temperature updates. Not sure of any agencies that use CDAS. They use ERSST for monthly and seasonal SSTs.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

[snowman19]

Not sure if typical Nino caveats apply either in this new climate 
Hell it's a developing strong Nino and we're getting multiple MDR systems in June

If you thought the AGW/climate change talk went crazy after the 15-16 El Nino, just watch what happens in 2024 if this event actually does go super…2 super Ninos within 10 years…it will be completely off the charts and will almost certainly be a very HUGE campaign issue leading up to the elections next year

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bdgwx said:

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but it is my understanding that CDAS, which stands for Climate Data Assimilation System, is actually the model core for the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Or at least that is what the NCEP/NCAR built upon. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is known to be subpar. But I don't think that is justification for dismissing it outright. I do wonder if it wouldn't be better for Levi Cowan to use a more accepted product like OISST or ERSST though.

1. Thanks to you I've learned more about CDAS than Ive ever known.

2. I don't think he can use ERSST for daily updates because I don't think that updates daily. But correct me if I'm wrong about that.

3. I get OISST dailies from another source and thus am glad Levi provides the CDAS because I like to look at it, especially for its daily changes, to compare them to OISST and Coral Reef Watch daily changes. Also, CDAS has been good recently to give me a good feel for the minimum as to where SSTs are since it tends to run the coolest. Coral Reef dailies have recently been the warmest. 

[George001]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If you thought the AGW/climate change talk went crazy after the 15-16 El Nino, just watch what happens in 2024 if this event actually does go super…2 super Ninos within 10 years…it will be completely off the charts and will almost certainly be a very HUGE campaign issue leading up to the elections next year

I read somewhere that one of the impacts of climate change is that more strong and super enso events are expected.  

[bdgwx]

@GaWx I bet you're right. I've not been able to find any daily ERSST updates. And I can't disagree, I see a very high correlation between NCEP/NCAR vs ERSST in ENSO 3.4 region at R^2 = 0.98. So while they don't match exactly it is very close. I certainly wouldn't dismiss it.

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

I read somewhere that one of the impacts of climate change is that more strong and super enso events are expected.  

Otoh, I have a working hypothesis that CC will lead to more la nina years and even when we’re in enso neutral or weak ninos, the atmosphere will act more like a nina because of zonal sst gradients between nino 3.4 and the WPAC warm pool keeping the mjo stuck in 4-6, and weakening meridional temp gradients around the equator affecting the hadley cell and pacific jet.

Before this flip to nino, I was concerned that we’d find ourselves in a permanent and irreversible la nina because the mid latitude (and WPAC warm pool) ssts have been warming faster than the equatorial pacific.

[raindancewx]

CFS is actually showing a fairly similar pattern that looks similar to the July 1972, 1997, -2014 blend that has worked fairly well for June. Some coolness NW US, pretty hot elsewhere.

Mexico is quite sensitive to Nino 3 / 1.2 warming. From what I can see, the current heat wave over Mexico is somewhat similar to 1957, 1982, 1991, 2009 since 1950. By severity and timing, 1982 is the closest El Nino June heat wave match. I look at some of the towns in Hidalgo that are 7,000-9,000 feet up without major heat island effects. Many of those towns typically run 75F/51F high/low ranges in June, but are set to finish at like 83F/53F for the month (which to be real, is still quite lovely). So the 63F average temperature for June v. 68F normal is consistent with the +5F shown by Hidalgo state (20N/100W).

The other common June El Nino pattern is below -

 

Guadalajara, at ~5,000 feet is really roasting (this is v. average June highs of 87F / with a 63F low). As with Hidalgo though, the absence of rain / humidity / clouds enhances the daily highs but keeps the lows cold or near average. The records in a lot of the towns in Hidalgo are in the low 30s for lows in June-August. That's because you still have 11+ hours of darkness and high elevation. Add dry air to that and the lows can really plummet once in a great while. Guadalajara is thus seeing cool lows and very hot highs at the moment for June, for +4F or so net..

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Otoh, I have a working hypothesis that CC will lead to more la nina years and even when we’re in enso neutral or weak ninos, the atmosphere will act more like a nina because of zonal sst gradients between nino 3.4 and the WPAC warm pool keeping the mjo stuck in 4-6, and weakening meridional temp gradients around the equator affecting the hadley cell and pacific jet.

Before this flip to nino, I was concerned that we’d find ourselves in a permanent and irreversible la nina because the mid latitude (and WPAC warm pool) ssts have been warming faster than the equatorial pacific.

Which is why you actually need a strong Nino if you want a coupled atmospheric response

Perhaps even a Nino equivalent to the strong/super Nino years of the past will net a much more muted atmospheric response due to multiple competing influences like the Pacific warm pool. 

Very fascinating to see what will happen 

[snowman19]

CFS is actually showing a fairly similar pattern that looks similar to the July 1972, 1997, -2014 blend that has worked fairly well for June. Some coolness NW US, pretty hot elsewhere.
Mexico is quite sensitive to Nino 3 / 1.2 warming. From what I can see, the current heat wave over Mexico is somewhat similar to 1957, 1982, 1991, 2009 since 1950. By severity and timing, 1982 is the closest El Nino June heat wave match. I look at some of the towns in Hidalgo that are 7,000-9,000 feet up without major heat island effects. Many of those towns typically run 75F/51F high/low ranges in June, but are set to finish at like 83F/53F for the month (which to be real, is still quite lovely). So the 63F average temperature for June v. 68F normal is consistent with the +5F shown by Hidalgo state (20N/100W).


The other common June El Nino pattern is below -

 
Guadalajara, at ~5,000 feet is really roasting (this is v. average June highs of 87F / with a 63F low). As with Hidalgo though, the absence of rain / humidity / clouds enhances the daily highs but keeps the lows cold or near average. The records in a lot of the towns in Hidalgo are in the low 30s for lows in June-August. That's because you still have 11+ hours of darkness and high elevation. Add dry air to that and the lows can really plummet once in a great while. Guadalajara is thus seeing cool lows and very hot highs at the moment for June, for +4F or so net..

The record Mexican heat wave makes sense with the east-based/Eastern Pacific El Niño we have. Latent and sensible heat release into the atmosphere through SST evaporation and convection from the furnace in ENSO regions 3 and 1+2. I would expect that to continue with the positive feedback loop that’s been created there

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Which is why you actually need a strong Nino if you want a coupled atmospheric response

Perhaps even a Nino equivalent to the strong/super Nino years of the past will net a much more muted atmospheric response due to multiple competing influences like the Pacific warm pool. 

Very fascinating to see what will happen 

Winter predictions will probably be...a really bad idea this year, lol

[so_whats_happening]

I dont normally post stuff from twitter but when reading about the developing tropical storm(s) in the Atlantic I happened upon an interesting take to the El Nino discussion. Considering we may have a rather stout +SOI pattern setting up lets see where we end up. Lack of tropical activity still in the WPAC and EPAC, Atlantic may begin firing off storm after storm coming up here all while the MJO is set to be dead for the next week or two. MJO forecasts show maybe a re-emergence around 1/2 but not until the first week of July, if forecasts hold.

 

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 6/18/2023 at 3:04 PM, snowman19 said:

East-based. Just #Triggered you

Stay safe.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I dont normally post stuff from twitter but when reading about the developing tropical storm(s) in the Atlantic I happened upon an interesting take to the El Nino discussion. Considering we may have a rather stout +SOI pattern setting up lets see where we end up. Lack of tropical activity still in the WPAC and EPAC, Atlantic may begin firing off storm after storm coming up here all while the MJO is set to be dead for the next week or two. MJO forecasts show maybe a re-emergence around 1/2 but not until the first week of July, if forecasts hold.

 

I wonder if its an early peak to hurricane season in the atl basin.

[Terpeast]

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Winter predictions will probably be...a really bad idea this year, lol

But we will all do it anyway. Because… that’s how we roll!

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder if its an early peak to hurricane season in the atl basin.

Thats what i have been thinking for awhile now. We get things going quick and slump around peak season depending on how everything with the El Nino evolves. I honestly hope El Nino conditions take over or it has the potential of being heck of a season.

[yoda]

Guess I beat @snowman19 to this lol

 

[A-L-E-K]

let's go

[GaWx]

31 minutes ago, yoda said:

Guess I beat @snowman19 to this lol

 

 Actually, you didn't beat him as @snowman19posted about this early yesterday:

And then I chimed in about it yesterday:

 I've also pointed out that the prior BoM forecasts for June, +1.3 and then +1.2, look to be significantly too warm. This new BoM run actually initialized June at only +0.9 as I said in the above linked post. Despite that, it has July at +1.8, which is even warmer than the prior run's +1.7. A +1.8 in July would mean an amazingly steep warming from June. So, that remains to be seen, especially in light of its too warm June.

[snowman19]

Guess I beat [mention=13098]snowman19[/mention] to this lol
 

[GaWx]

 As I said above, the newest BoM run warms July to +1.8, which is a whopping 0.9 warming vs its June initialization of +0.9. I looked at the largest ERSST based monthly warmings for developing El Nino years to give me an idea of how believable a 0.9 warming in just one month is:

1. +0.86 May to June 1968

2. +0.75 Jan to Feb 1976

3. +0.71 Aug to Sep 1982

4. +0.63 June to July 1963

5. +0.56 Oct to Nov 2009

 

 So, a 0.9 warming would about equal the largest monthly warming on record (back to 1950) for an oncoming El Niño, which was from May to June in 1968. Keep in mind that it's still possible that June will end up at +1.0 if there's enough rewarming before the end of this month. If so, it would be a 0.8 warming, which would be near the Jan to Feb of 1976 warming.

 So, what I get from this is that July warming to +1.8 wouldn't mean an unprecedentedly steep monthly warming meaning it is possible. However, it being about the steepest along with the prior BoM runs being too warm for June tells me to be skeptical that July will get to +1.8. The next 6 weeks will be fascinating to follow.

 

Monthly ERSST 1950+:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

[brooklynwx99]

i just have a very hard time believing the Australian when it's the most extreme outlier. just seems a bit much compared to literally everything else. it's obviously going to get a ton of traction on social media in the same way that a 384hr GFS OP snow map does, though

the dynamical average peak of +1.5-2.0C seems the most reasonable right now

[snowman19]

 As I said above, the newest BoM run warms July to +1.8, which is a whopping 0.9 warming vs its June initialization of +0.9. I looked at the largest ERSST based monthly warmings for developing El Nino years to give me an idea of how believable a 0.9 warming in just one month is:
1. +0.86 May to June 1968
2. +0.75 Jan to Feb 1976
3. +0.71 Aug to Sep 1982
4. +0.63 June to July 1963
5. +0.56 Oct to Nov 2009
 
 So, a 0.9 warming would about equal the largest monthly warming on record (back to 1950) for an oncoming El Niño, which was from May to June in 1968. Keep in mind that it's still possible that June will end up at +1.0 if there's enough rewarming before the end of this month. If so, it would be a 0.8 warming, which would be near the Jan to Feb of 1976 warming.
 So, what I get from this is that July warming to +1.8 wouldn't mean an unprecedentedly steep monthly warming meaning it is possible. However, it being about the steepest along with the prior BoM runs being too warm for June tells me to be skeptical that July will get to +1.8. The next 6 weeks will be fascinating to follow.
 
Monthly ERSST 1950+:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

Yes, I agree. A good chance June ends at +1.0C. Warming 0.8C by the end of July? Extreme, yes….impossible? No

[GaWx]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, I agree. A good chance June ends at +1.0C. Warming 0.8C by the end of July? Extreme, yes….impossible? No

Well, the last two days' averages have shown warming, especially today:

-CDAS warmed 0.040 to 0.717
-Coral Reef Watch warmed 0.035 to 0.934  
-OISST warmed 0.048 to 0.970

Average warming today was .041

[GaWx]

The 180-100W OHC anomaly has exceeded +1.20 throughout June so far with the latest near +1.35. So, most likely June will resume the month to month warming. It looks to be the third warmest June OHC back to 1979 behind only 1997's +2.25 and 2015's +1.51:

[snowman19]

The 180-100W OHC anomaly has exceeded +1.20 throughout June so far with the latest near +1.35. So, most likely June will resume the month to month warming. It looks to be the third warmest June OHC back to 1979 behind only 1997's +2.25 and 2015's +1.51:

It looks like warming is continuing in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2….theres actually a chance it goes +1.1C come 6/30….

[bluewave]

So far the OISST has been averaging +0.9 for the first half of June. Its possible that the last 10 days can warm enough for June to average +1.0. The BOM looks like its call from May for June to finish at 1.25 will be a little high. More WWBs coming for the EPAC will continue the warming in the east gradually spreading west. The westward lean to the forcing continues this month. 
 

 

[thunderbolt]

[thunderbolt]

Just now, thunderbolt said:

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i just have a very hard time believing the Australian when it's the most extreme outlier. just seems a bit much compared to literally everything else. it's obviously going to get a ton of traction on social media in the same way that a 384hr GFS OP snow map does, though

the dynamical average peak of +1.5-2.0C seems the most reasonable right now

I agree.