El Nino 2023-2024

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Maybe it is a temporary blip, but today all three cooled:

CDAS cooled 0.027 to 0.695

Coral Reef Watch barely cooled 0.002 to .0889

OISSTv2.1 cooled .031 to .876 

So, today cooled an average of .020 after the last two days of an average warming of .024/day

Yeah... was just gonna say, ... doesn't seem like the pathway to an exceptional fast warm ENSO arrival -

[bluewave]

On 6/14/2023 at 6:27 PM, snowman19 said:

So east-based forcing and near dateline forcing. Interesting

The east based forcing would provide our 9th milder winter in a row. The forcing near the Dateline could help out with a rogue blockbuster snowstorm like 2016. So a relative improvement over the poor snowfall showing last winter. 

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... was just gonna say, ... doesn't seem like the pathway to an exceptional fast warm ENSO arrival -

 Well, there was fast warming for the last week of May and first week of June. And that lead to NOAA declaring El Niño. But there's not yet been a resumption of significant warming. Is that because we're still in a corrective phase of sorts after that two week rapid warming?

 June MTD is near +0.9 per OISSTv1.2. There likely will need to be more warming over the next two weeks for June to reach +1.0. Latest BoM predicted +1.2, Euro +1.1, and CFSv2 +0.9. Let's see how June ends up.

[so_whats_happening]

32 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Well, there was fast warming for the last week of May and first week of June. And that lead to NOAA declaring El Niño. But there's not yet been a resumption of significant warming. Is that because we're still in a corrective phase of sorts after that two week rapid warming?

 June MTD is near +0.9 per OISSTv1.2. There likely will need to be more warming over the next two weeks for June to reach +1.0. Latest BoM predicted +1.2, Euro +1.1, and CFSv2 +0.9. Let's see how June ends up.

You can see why the warming had taken place the lack of trade winds really allowed the area to just open up so we got that spike. While the trades have maintained if not even dropped temps locally during this time. We can expect temps to hold or slightly cool until things lighten up or if a warming occurs in 1+2, 3. More of that needs to be prevalent for the Nino to really start to show onto those higher numbers.

Average should probably end up around .75 maybe .8 on the month of june unless we see a more drastic change to end the month.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Subsurface is taking on Moderate-Strong El Nino configuration with >+6c in the east, and cooling in the west.

[snowman19]

Subsurface is taking on Moderate-Strong El Nino configuration with >+6c in the east, and cooling in the west.

The subsurface is actually approaching +7C under regions 3 and 1+2

[snowman19]

@GaWx @40/70 Benchmark @raindancewx @bluewave @griteater Now THIS is very interesting:

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe we are stuck in a long-term run of bad winters….the last time that happened was the 13 year period from 1979-1992. A consecutive run of epically bad winters, all in a row. Really has not happened again since then…..

Even during that stretch, we had some years like 1986-1987 and 1981-1982....even 1982-1983 was decent. Bottom line is I have had five consecutive shitty seasons, which is unprecedented. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The biggest snowstorm of that 13 year period was the Megalopolis blizzard of February, 1983, during the super El Niño. That was it

December 1981 had a very large event in eastern NE...March 1984, as well. January 1987 was a huge month.

[snowman19]

[dmillz25]

JB going strong Modoki Niño

[snowman19]

JB going strong Modoki Niño:lol:

Of course he is. I knew he was going to say that back in April. Broken record. Does anyone actually take him seriously anymore? He’s the equivalent of the National Enquirer now. Total joke. If he had any integrity left he’d retire

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

Maybe it is a temporary blip, but today all three cooled:

CDAS cooled 0.027 to 0.695

Coral Reef Watch barely cooled 0.002 to .0889

OISSTv2.1 cooled .031 to .876 

So, today cooled an average of .020 after the last two days of an average warming of .024/day.

 For the June monthly to end up as warm as +1.0 instead of +0.9, there's likely going to need to be additional warming over the next two weeks. For comparison, the latest BoM had June at +1.2.

Today's 3.4 SSTa update has little net change after yesterday's modest cooling:

CDAS cooled 0.010 to 0.685

Coral Reef Watch cooled 0.013 to 0.876

OISSTv2.1 warmed 0.007 to 0.883

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Of course he is. I knew he was going to say that back in April. Broken record. Does anyone actually take him seriously anymore? He’s the equivalent of the National Enquirer now. Total joke. If he had any integrity left he’d retire

#triggered

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

JB going strong Modoki Niño

You've set snowman off for days lol

[roardog]

I’m not sure what the true definition of Modoki El Niño is but JB uses it for any El Niño where 3.4 is warmer than 1+2. If you read what he’s saying, he says he expects 3.4 to be warmer than 1+2 during the winter. I don’t think that’s a true Modoki but he always calls it that. He’s not actually expecting 1+2 to have negative anomalies.

[snowman19]

#triggered

East-based. Just #Triggered you

[GaWx]

 Today's SOI of -26 is barely the most -SOI for the MTD and brings June MTD down to nearly -5. However, today should be at or near the low point with a large rise expected during the upcoming week. Around 7-8 days from now, it appears that the SOI will probably head up to near +15. Thus June as a whole will end up much higher than the -15 of May. That's not too surprising considering how far down May was. Then we'll see where July might head. July and August will be important.

[GaWx]

Per the following June 3rd post of mine, the CFSv2 then was suggesting a June SOI of ~-9 and first two weeks of July SOI of ~-9.5 fwiw:

 

[George001]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

East-based. Just #Triggered you

I don’t like it, but I agree. My gut feeling is this will be an unfavorable nino for east coast snow weenies, whether it gets to super or not. I just don’t think Paul Roundy should be ignored, he is great and has been right about this El Niño event so far. He said it was going to be a big one that was building from east to west even when the models were saying weak nino. I was in denial, argued with you that the -PDO wouldn’t allow it to happen, etc. Well, a few months later and what happens? The models are now forecasting a strong nino, and the nino is indeed building from east to west! We are coming off a 3 year Nina, and it’s only June and we are already experiencing El Niño conditions. I’m starting to think moderate is off the table too and that the question is do we get a strong or super nino (I’m leaning strong, but low end super is becoming more realistic). 

[snowman19]

The new POAMA hasn’t backed down one bit, still showing a record super El Niño and it’s also showing a strong +IOD to go along with it:

 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The new POAMA hasn’t backed down one bit, still showing a record super El Niño and it’s also showing a strong +IOD to go along with it:

 

 It would be nice if there were a "wow" reaction icon. Indeed, this newest run has Sep/Oct/Nov at an absolutely insane +2.9/+3.0/+3.2 vs the already pretty insane +2.6/+2.7/+2.9 on the prior run, meaning a warming of 0.3! The prior run to that was "only" at +2.4/+2.5/+2.7. So, it has warmed 0.5 for SON over the last two runs! What's even more interesting is that this new run initialized June at only +0.9 vs the prior run's June prediction of +1.2. But even with that 0.3 cooling for June, it then gets July way up to +1.8 vs +1.7 on the prior run!

 Meanwhile, the SOI has started its rise from yesterday's -26 June MTD low with today at -19. 
 
 The NOAA weekly for last week was just released at +0.9, the same as the prior week. Based on the new BoM it likely won't rise much, if any, next week.

[snowman19]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 It would be nice if there were a "wow" reaction icon. Indeed, this newest run has Sep/Oct/Nov at an absolutely insane +2.9/+3.0/+3.2 vs the already pretty insane +2.6/+2.7/+2.9 on the prior run, meaning a warming of 0.3! The prior run to that was "only" at +2.4/+2.5/+2.7. So, it has warmed 0.5 for SON over the last two runs! What's even more interesting is that this new run initialized June at only +0.9 vs the prior run's June prediction of +1.2. But even with that 0.3 cooling for June, it then gets July way up to +1.8 vs +1.7 on the prior run!

 Meanwhile, the SOI has started its rise from yesterday's -26 June MTD low with today at -19.

Yes, it is showing an absolutely historic event and keeps doubling down higher and higher with the peak. Look at this subsurface furnace just below ENSO regions 1+2 and 3…anomalies over +6C 

 

[SnoSki14]

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

#triggered

Not sure if typical Nino caveats apply either in this new climate 

Hell it's a developing strong Nino and we're getting multiple MDR systems in June

[Terpeast]

58 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not sure if typical Nino caveats apply either in this new climate 

Hell it's a developing strong Nino and we're getting multiple MDR systems in June

Technically, we’re not in a strong nino yet.

But valid question about whether the typical nino effects apply post 2016. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Technically, we’re not in a strong nino yet.

But valid question about whether the typical nino effects apply post 2016. 

yup!

[Typhoon Tip]

This may not technically be the thread for this but what's up with the Atlantic SST anomaly distribution? 

West of ~ 40W, the Basin looks like it's in a wildly tripole mode, while east of that ... looks like "no-pole" 

I suppose it's diametric from W to E, but to see that so coherently so like that, that's fascinating. 

Get a load of the insidious deep cold anomalies out there S of NS.  And notice the near scale topping warmth that's pervasively immersing an enormous area of the NE Basin.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This may not technically be the thread for this but what's up with the Atlantic SST anomaly distribution? 

West of ~ 40W, the Basin looks like it's in a wildly tripole mode, while east of that ... looks like "no-pole" 

I suppose it's diametric from W to E, but to see that so coherently so like that, that's fascinating. 

Get a load of the insidious deep cold anomalies out there S of NS.  And notice the near scale topping warmth that's pervasively immersing an enormous area of the NE Basin.

Pretty impressive.

 

 

[snowman19]

[bdgwx]

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but it is my understanding that CDAS, which stands for Climate Data Assimilation System, is actually the model core for the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Or at least that is what the NCEP/NCAR built upon. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is known to be subpar. But I don't think that is justification for dismissing it outright. I do wonder if it wouldn't be better for Levi Cowan to use a more accepted product like OISST or ERSST though.