El Nino 2023-2024

[so_whats_happening]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The cooling has slowed and the upcoming WWB looks like it means business, looks more and more impressive. We may see a huge spike in the warming by late month

Honestly will have to wait and see. We might not get a reaction until July which a few days is semantics of course. We also need to see just how influential the WWB will actually be. If we take this last one for example which was still a rather impressive event we rose a solid .5 degree not shabby at all but since have cooled that area by half the warming that occurred. Im still hesitant on going anything above 2C as that would require more robust WWB events and an actual dislodging of the subsurface warm pool. We have about 4 months until we hit peak typically seen with El Nino events. At the rate we have been going it has been about .3C increase each month since February. If this rate continues we look to be about .9-1.2 for July average, 1.2-1.5 August, 1.5-1.8 for September average and maybe if we arent on the cooler side of things pushing near 2C in October. Thoughts are definitely pinned around 1.7-1.8C in 3.4 currently so while we push into strong territory the atmospheric response may be more on the moderate Nino side of things. We seem to be on the 30 day kick for WWB events with larger pushes happening every 80-90 days (late february/early march and late may).

Lets see how it goes.

[bluewave]

The Euro seasonal is going for split forcing near the Dateline and EPAC.

 

[snowman19]

Honestly will have to wait and see. We might not get a reaction until July which a few days is semantics of course. We also need to see just how influential the WWB will actually be. If we take this last one for example which was still a rather impressive event we rose a solid .5 degree not shabby at all but since have cooled that area by half the warming that occurred. Im still hesitant on going anything above 2C as that would require more robust WWB events and an actual dislodging of the subsurface warm pool. We have about 4 months until we hit peak typically seen with El Nino events. At the rate we have been going it has been about .3C increase each month since February. If this rate continues we look to be about .9-1.2 for July average, 1.2-1.5 August, 1.5-1.8 for September average and maybe if we arent on the cooler side of things pushing near 2C in October. Thoughts are definitely pinned around 1.7-1.8C in 3.4 currently so while we push into strong territory the atmospheric response may be more on the moderate Nino side of things. We seem to be on the 30 day kick for WWB events with larger pushes happening every 80-90 days (late february/early march and late may).
Lets see how it goes.

Yea, we are going to have to see how July goes, I think that month will be very telling. Just my opinion right now, I can see this thing peaking in November/December somewhere between +2.0C - +2.4C. Again, dependent on what July does, but I think we do see a very big uptick that month

[snowman19]

The Euro seasonal is going for split forcing near the Dateline and EPAC.


 

So east-based forcing and near dateline forcing. Interesting

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

While I doubt a ‘97 or ‘15 peak as of right now, IMO I don’t think a peak of +2.0C - +2.4C come November/December is far fetched at all. Will a “low-end” super peak matter overall this winter and make a big difference as opposed to it peaking higher? I dunno

Def taking the under on 2.0

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal is going for split forcing near the Dateline and EPAC.

 

Pretty much how 2015-16 played out.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal is going for split forcing near the Dateline and EPAC.

 

 Do you or does anyone else have any idea of how accurate the Euro ensemble has been and whether there's an identified bias looking ahead from summer to winter at H2 velocity potential? 

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal is going for split forcing near the Dateline and EPAC.

 

That looks like fun!

[snowman19]

[Volcanic Winter]

So what month(s) constitutes peak winter forcing considering any lag in atmospheric response to the ENSO state? My assumption would be mid fall, but just curious for any elaboration. Thanks.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

So what month(s) constitutes peak winter forcing considering any lag in atmospheric response to the ENSO state? My assumption would be mid fall, but just curious for any elaboration. Thanks.  

I would say November through February is pretty important....once we hit March, its pretty irrelevent.

[raindancewx]

It's interesting to look at the stronger El Ninos by solar conditions. We've not had a major El Nino (27.5C+ in DJF) with high solar (>55 sunspots on average for July-June) in a very long time.

1940, 1957, 1972, 1982, 1991, 2002.  There are a bunch of bubble years - 1997-98 and 2015-16 for solar, and several others for strength. 

The major El Ninos with low solar are 1965, 1986, 1994, 2009

Not a big deal for spatial temperature patterns. Both are warm north cool south looks. Pretty different precipitation though. You can see a smile shaped subtropical jet pattern in the high solar years. Different storm pattern to a SW->NE running subtropical jet that hits Baja California to LA but misses most of California and the Northeast in low solar years.

[GaWx]

On 6/14/2023 at 3:32 PM, GaWx said:

Slower cooling averaged out today of only 0.02 (day 5):

CDAS: cooled 0.03 to 0.684
Coral Reef Watch: no change at 0.872   
OISSTv2.1: cooled 0.03 to 0.818
 

The cooling has ended with warming resumed in all three datasets:

 

CDAS: warmed 0.013 to 0.697

Coral Reef Watch: warmed 0.018 to 0.890

OISSTv2.1: warmed 0.042 to 0.860

 *Edited for typos

[snowman19]

The cooling has ended with warming resumed in all three datasets:
 
CDAS: warmed 0.13 to 0.697
Coral Reef Watch: warmed 0.18 to 0.890
OISSTv2.1: warmed 0.42 to 0.860
 

As suspected, the extent and duration of the cooling period was way overdone by the models last week and we are warming already…

[snowman19]

[griteater]

GFS and Euro Weeklies do have westerly wind anomalies working into the dateline, so we're likely to see some warming over the coming weeks.  However, the MJO forecast has low amplitude with no strongly negative SOI pressure pattern showing up in the forecast charts....so, this may cap the upcoming warming potential 

 

 

 

[FPizz]

[40/70 Benchmark]

The strong el nino/high solar years are pretty split....1940, 1957 and 2002 were good, but 1972, 1982 and 1991, not so much.....looks like there were only two with a notable dearth of big east coast storms....1972 and 1991.

[GaWx]

49 minutes ago, griteater said:

GFS and Euro Weeklies do have westerly wind anomalies working into the dateline, so we're likely to see some warming over the coming weeks.  However, the MJO forecast has low amplitude with no strongly negative SOI pressure pattern showing up in the forecast charts....so, this may cap the upcoming warming potential 

 

 Just 11 days ago, the EPS and GEFS both had an MJO forecast going through the entire MC phases 4 and 5 at moderate strength through about June 20th. Instead, the actual MJO only barely made it into moderate phase 4 and it already is within the circle. The June 5th forecasts had had it going into moderate phase 5 around today with a prog of about a 4-5 day period within moderate phase 5. I didn't at all expect this forecast failure as one can see below in my June 5th post:

 

[snowman19]

 Just 11 days ago, the EPS and GEFS both had an MJO forecast going through the entire MC phases 4 and 5 at moderate strength through about June 20th. Instead, the actual MJO only barely made it into moderate phase 4 and it already is within the circle. The June 5th forecasts had had it going into moderate phase 5 around today with a prog of about a 4-5 day period within moderate phase 5. I didn't at all expect this forecast failure as one can see below in my June 5th post:
 
 

The developing +IOD starting to do its dirty work and suppressing IO/Maritime Continent convection. The models very badly overestimated both the easterly wind burst/ENSO cooling and the MJO marching through the IO and Maritime Continent phases

[bdgwx]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

The bias corrected CFS peak has come down about 0.5 in the last few weeks.

[GaWx]

On 6/6/2023 at 2:00 AM, GaWx said:

 Wow, the CDAS Nino 3.4 is zooming. It is up a whopping 0.037 over just the last 12 hours to +0.779! It has warmed 0.45 within the last 10 days. This implies that the average of the OISST and ERSST is probably currently up to near +0.9. If this keeps up, those two could be up near +1.0 within 2 days. I'm now starting to wonder if the BoM 3.4 is going to somehow get its +1.2 for June after all. Still not expecting it but I'm no longer dismissing it as extremely unlikely.

 Due to the cooling that just ended, I'm back to thinking it is extremely unlikely the BoM's +1.2 for June will be reached.

[snowman19]

 Due to the cooling that just ended, I'm back to thinking it is extremely unlikely the BoM's +1.2 for June will be reached.

I think July is the month to watch, IMO we see a big uptick then

[GaWx]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

The cooling has ended with warming resumed in all three datasets:

 

CDAS: warmed 0.013 to 0.697

Coral Reef Watch: warmed 0.018 to 0.890

OISSTv2.1: warmed 0.042 to 0.860

 *Edited for typos

Today is the 2nd day of warming following the corrective cooling of the three I look at:

CDAS warmed 0.025 to 0.722

Coral Reef Watch (barely) warmed 0.001 to 0.891

OISSTv2.1 warmed 0.047 to 0.907

 So, today's average warming was 0.024 vs 0.024 also yesterday.

[snowman19]

As I posted before, the new APEC and WMO multi model ensembles are showing rapid ENSO warming the next several months. This (along with the developing +IOD constructively interfering) leads me to believe we see major warming starting in July. Also, the upcoming WWBs/DWKWs look like they mean business. I think we see some strongly negative SOI numbers going through July

[bdgwx]

The June IRI ensemble suite just got published. The statistical+dynamical average peak jumped up 0.2 to 1.5 on this update.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

IRI June Seasons (2023 – 2024)                                    
Model       JJA    JAS    ASO    SON    OND    NDJ    DJF    JFM    FMA
Dynamical   1.295  1.539  1.679  1.761  1.746  1.598  1.473  1.264  1.009
Statistical 0.749  0.785  0.825  0.840  0.846  0.812  0.734  0.579  0.415
All         1.120  1.298  1.406  1.466  1.403  1.248  1.125  0.899  0.670

 

[snowman19]

We had some bad luck that season, so maybe this year is a similar pattern with a some breaks.....we are due for some good fortune. I know that is highly anecdotal, but it does tend to even out over the long haul.

Maybe we are stuck in a long-term run of bad winters….the last time that happened was the 13 year period from 1979-1992. A consecutive run of epically bad winters, all in a row. Really has not happened again since then…..

[FPizz]

58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe we are stuck in a long-term run of bad winters….the last time that happened was the 13 year period from 1979-1992. A consecutive run of epically bad winters, all in a row. Really has not happened again since then…..

There were no blockbusters, but there weren't many total duds either in cnj. It was rather average, and I actually averaged more snow in the 80s than the 90s

[snowman19]

There were no blockbusters, but there weren't many total duds either in cnj. It was rather average, and I actually averaged more snow in the 80s than the 90s

The biggest snowstorm of that 13 year period was the Megalopolis blizzard of February, 1983, during the super El Niño. That was it

[GaWx]

On 6/16/2023 at 2:46 PM, GaWx said:

Today is the 2nd day of warming following the corrective cooling of the three I look at:

CDAS warmed 0.025 to 0.722

Coral Reef Watch (barely) warmed 0.001 to 0.891

OISSTv2.1 warmed 0.047 to 0.907

 So, today's average warming was 0.024 vs 0.024 also yesterday.

Maybe it is a temporary blip, but today all three cooled:

CDAS cooled 0.027 to 0.695

Coral Reef Watch barely cooled 0.002 to .0889

OISSTv2.1 cooled .031 to .876 

So, today cooled an average of .020 after the last two days of an average warming of .024/day.

 For the June monthly to end up as warm as +1.0 instead of +0.9, there's likely going to need to be additional warming over the next two weeks. For comparison, the latest BoM had June at +1.2.