El Nino 2023-2024

[etudiant]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

We can keep using the persistence argument/forecast but eventually that doesn’t work anymore. Patterns are bound to change, they can’t stay the same forever, especially after almost 10 years

Is that not like betting on black after red has come up for the last ten throws, because 'it's bound to change'?

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

45 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 For those who don't realize it, the 0.9 for 3.4 is for the prior calendar week, centered on June 7th.

 Meanwhile, the "correctional" cooling has gone into a 3rd day. I'm guessing that they're about to end:

6/10/23 coolings:
CDAS 0.06
Coral Reef Watch: 0.08
OISSTv2.1: 0.08

6/11/23 coolings:
CDAS 0.09 (to 0.825)
Coral Reef Watch: 0.06 (to 0.935)
OISSTv2.1: 0.04 (to 0.915)

6/12/23 coolings:

CDAS: 0.07 (to 0.752)
Coral Reef Watch: 0.03 (to 0.903)   
OISSTv2.1: 0.03 (to 0.888)

[snowman19]

El Niño already affecting the long wave global pattern:

[GaWx]

 From what I've learned from others, that blocking ridge that Paul mentioned is leading to lighter trade winds, which is leading to record low for June Saharan dust being blown into the tropical Atlantic. That record low dust means the sun is better able to heat the ocean, which has apparently been a major factor in the record warm for June tropical Atlantic.

 https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/its-saharan-dust-season-but-wheres

 Related to this, I assume that clouds/rainfall in the tropical Atlantic have been below normal since that usually leads to AN SSTs during summer. So, I'm guessing that tropical wave activity has been BN for early June, which perhaps is consistent with lighter trades bringing off weaker waves from Africa? San Juan has had virtually no rain during the last 2 weeks.

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

@Gawx

[raindancewx]

Globally, the Summer heat waves this year have been quite consistent with the warming of Nino 3.4.

Western Canada, Mexico/Caribbean states, Western Europe, the Maghreb/North Africa/Middle East, India/Pakistan, Western China, with the US relatively unaffected except immediately downwind of the Canadian hot spots. Southwestern Canada had temperatures near 100F in May, with Pakistan seeing near 120F recently. Mexico got to the mid-80s as high up as 8,000 feet on the Central Plateau against average highs in the mid-70s. 

2003 and 2015 are some recent years when El Nino conditions were present by Summer, with major heat waves across Europe and the Middle East. Here is 2015 in Europe. I believe August saw temps over 120F for a time in Iraq. The C to F conversion is (C x 1.8) + 32. So the 35C-40C range is 95F to 104F.

From this account: extreme temps on twitter.

110s in Western China - (46.6 x 1.8)+32 =  116F (+15F v. average high for June)

[snowman19]

19 hours ago, GaWx said:

 For those who don't realize it, the 0.9 for 3.4 is for the prior calendar week, centered on June 7th.
 Meanwhile, the "correctional" cooling has gone into a 3rd day. I'm guessing that they're about to end:
6/10/23 coolings:
CDAS 0.06
Coral Reef Watch: 0.08
OISSTv2.1: 0.08
6/11/23 coolings:
CDAS 0.09 (to 0.825)
Coral Reef Watch: 0.06 (to 0.935)
OISSTv2.1: 0.04 (to 0.915)
6/12/23 coolings:
CDAS: 0.07 (to 0.752)
Coral Reef Watch: 0.03 (to 0.903)   
OISSTv2.1: 0.03 (to 0.888)

After the current brief, temporary period of cooling with the easterlies in 3.4, here comes next round of warming/WWB/DKW/-SOI

[griteater]

3.4 drop over the last 5 days

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Globally, the Summer heat waves this year have been quite consistent with the warming of Nino 3.4.

Western Canada, Mexico/Caribbean states, Western Europe, the Maghreb/North Africa/Middle East, India/Pakistan, Western China, with the US relatively unaffected except immediately downwind of the Canadian hot spots. Southwestern Canada had temperatures near 100F in May, with Pakistan seeing near 120F recently. Mexico got to the mid-80s as high up as 8,000 feet on the Central Plateau against average highs in the mid-70s. 

2003 and 2015 are some recent years when El Nino conditions were present by Summer, with major heat waves across Europe and the Middle East. Here is 2015 in Europe. I believe August saw temps over 120F for a time in Iraq. The C to F conversion is (C x 1.8) + 32. So the 35C-40C range is 95F to 104F.

From this account: extreme temps on twitter.

110s in Western China - (46.6 x 1.8)+32 =  116F (+15F v. average high for June)

I really like a slightly weaker version of the 2015-2016 el nino as an early guess at an analog.  Exactly that orientation, but maybe 1.8- 2.0 peak ONI instead of 2.6.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I really like a slightly weaker version of the 2015-2016 el nino as an early guess at an analog.  Exactly that orientation, but maybe 1.8- 2.0 peak ONI instead of 2.6.

Seems with this week’s CPC enso update, the models backed off from a high-end strong/super scenario. Running low-end strong at the peak now. 1.5-1.7 or so. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Seems with this week’s CPC enso update, the models backed off from a high-end strong/super scenario. Running low-end strong at the peak now. 1.5-1.7 or so. 

I went strong as a first guess in my blog last week. I could see anywhere between 1.5 and 2 as a high end....but gun-to-head, I'd go under 2.0.

The mid atlantic would take that....this season will be about the blocking. If can get the episodes that we did last season, then we should be good.

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I went strong as a first guess in my blog last week. I could see anywhere between 1.5 and 2 as a high end....but gun-to-head, I'd go under 2.0.

The mid atlantic would take that....this season will be about the blocking. If can get the episodes that we did last season, then we should be good.

Agree. 1.5-2.0 should be the sweet spot for the MA. Less than that, too weak to fully couple and weak/no STJ. More than that, warmth overwhelms. 

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

 For those who don't realize it, the 0.9 for 3.4 is for the prior calendar week, centered on June 7th.

 Meanwhile, the "correctional" cooling has gone into a 3rd day. I'm guessing that they're about to end:

6/10/23 coolings:
CDAS 0.06
Coral Reef Watch: 0.08
OISSTv2.1: 0.08

6/11/23 coolings:
CDAS 0.09 (to 0.825)
Coral Reef Watch: 0.06 (to 0.935)
OISSTv2.1: 0.04 (to 0.915)

6/12/23 coolings:

CDAS: 0.07 (to 0.752)
Coral Reef Watch: 0.03 (to 0.903)   
OISSTv2.1: 0.03 (to 0.888)

 Today shows another (4th) day of cooling in all 3 daily updated datasets that I've been following.

6/13/23 coolings:

CDAS: 0.04 to 0.715   
Coral Reef Watch: 0.03 to 0.872   
OISSTv2.1: 0.04 to 0.845

 

Four day cooling from June 9th to 13th

CDAS: 0.26  
Coral Reef Watch: 0.20   
OISSTv2.1: 0.19

 

 Four days of cooling averaged over the three datasets:

0.07, 0.06, 0.04, 0.04
 

[roardog]

The CFS V2 has gradually been getting cooler with the peak with it now showing a strong Nino as opposed to a super. It’s interesting that it declines 1.2 quite rapidly very soon. I wonder if we will actually see that occur. 

[snowman19]

[roardog]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Wouldn’t we want the subsurface to at least be as warm as ‘97 or ‘15 to see the same trajectory?

[so_whats_happening]

Got some decent trade winds setting up over the next week. After that may be a wash to know how it finishes, after the 20th. As of now there does seem to be a potential WWB event setting up starting about the 20th lets see how the models progress this coming up.

Also we finally see a potential in the EPAC for a tropical system but not much in the way of development based off models. This is a bit of a late start for that basin lets see how things go in the next two weeks and as we move into July the strong El Nino years tend to really produce.

[raindancewx]

Here is one of the blends I've been watching for a little while.

Will this happen? Doubt it - but we'll see how July-November goes. The blend probably needs to be warmed up 1-2 degrees nationally.

Should be cold in the West in July if the 1997, 1972, -2014 blend were to hold. October would be severe again - and very cold nationally. That's consistent with my volcano ideas. Pretty cold December nationally too. East then torches Jan-Mar.

[SnoSki14]

26 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Here is one of the blends I've been watching for a little while.

Will this happen? Doubt it - but we'll see how July-November goes. The blend probably needs to be warmed up 1-2 degrees nationally.

Should be cold in the West in July if the 1997, 1972, -2014 blend were to hold. October would be severe again - and very cold nationally. That's consistent with my volcano ideas. Pretty cold December nationally too. East then torches Jan-Mar.

That composite has the 2 worst winters on record for the east. 72-73 was the least snowiest winter in NYC prior to this winter.

So I really hope that's wrong however back to back sucky winters aren't uncommon (see 96/97-99/00 or any 80s years)

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Here is one of the blends I've been watching for a little while.

Will this happen? Doubt it - but we'll see how July-November goes. The blend probably needs to be warmed up 1-2 degrees nationally.

Should be cold in the West in July if the 1997, 1972, -2014 blend were to hold. October would be severe again - and very cold nationally. That's consistent with my volcano ideas. Pretty cold December nationally too. East then torches Jan-Mar.

I doubt it will be that bad....el nino isn't going to remain as east based as that blend IMO....I think I recall you even saying that yourself. I don't mean its going to be a blockbuster, but I doubt another record low snow season.
I have had five consecutive solidly below normal snowfall seasons, which is unprecedented dating back to 1956. Tough to bet against you saying another shitter is coming, but I would have to imagine that this is the last one should that come to pass.

[snowman19]

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I doubt it will be that bad....el nino isn't going to remain as east based as that blend IMO....I think I recall you even saying that yourself. I don't mean its going to be a blockbuster, but I doubt another record low snow season.
I have had five consecutive solidly below normal snowfall seasons, which is unprecedented bating back to 1956. Tough to bet against you saying another shitter is coming, but I would have to imagine that this is the last one should that come to pass.

I don’t think it’ll be that bad either. While 97-98 is likely off the table, 72-73 is still a valid analog and probably will remain so as long as the PDO is negative. If I recall correctly, 72-73 was a snowy winter in the SE with near normal temps in the MA. Should that happen again with storm tracks shifted slightly north, the outcome may be a different result than that winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I don’t think it’ll be that bad either. While 97-98 is likely off the table, 72-73 is still a valid analog and probably will remain so as long as the PDO is negative. If I recall correctly, 72-73 was a snowy winter in the SE with near normal temps in the MA. Should that happen again with storm tracks shifted slightly north, the outcome may be a different result than that winter. 

We had some bad luck that season, so maybe this year is a similar pattern with a some breaks.....we are due for some good fortune. I know that is highly anecdotal, but it does tend to even out over the long haul.

[griteater]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I don’t think it’ll be that bad either. While 97-98 is likely off the table, 72-73 is still a valid analog and probably will remain so as long as the PDO is negative. If I recall correctly, 72-73 was a snowy winter in the SE with near normal temps in the MA. Should that happen again with storm tracks shifted slightly north, the outcome may be a different result than that winter. 

Jan '73 - major ice storm in Atlanta, 5-10 inch snow across NC

Feb '73 - 1-2 feet snow across central GA / SC / into SE NC

[snowman19]

We had some bad luck that season, so maybe this year is a similar pattern with a some breaks.....we are due for some good fortune. I know that is highly anecdotal, but it does tend to even out over the long haul.

While I doubt a ‘97 or ‘15 peak as of right now, IMO I don’t think a peak of +2.0C - +2.4C come November/December is far fetched at all. Will a “low-end” super peak matter overall this winter and make a big difference as opposed to it peaking higher? I dunno

[GaWx]

On 6/13/2023 at 1:52 PM, GaWx said:

 Today shows another (4th) day of cooling in all 3 daily updated datasets that I've been following.

6/13/23 coolings:

CDAS: 0.04 to 0.715   
Coral Reef Watch: 0.03 to 0.872   
OISSTv2.1: 0.04 to 0.845

 

Four day cooling from June 9th to 13th

CDAS: 0.26  
Coral Reef Watch: 0.20   
OISSTv2.1: 0.19

 

 Four days of cooling averaged over the three datasets:

0.07, 0.06, 0.04, 0.04
 

Slower cooling averaged out today of only 0.02 (day 5):

CDAS: cooled 0.03 to 0.684
Coral Reef Watch: no change at 0.872   
OISSTv2.1: cooled 0.03 to 0.818
 

[snowman19]

Slower cooling averaged out today of only 0.02 (day 5):
CDAS: cooled 0.03 to 0.684
Coral Reef Watch: no change at 0.872   
OISSTv2.1: cooled 0.03 to 0.818
 

The cooling has slowed and the upcoming WWB looks like it means business, looks more and more impressive. We may see a huge spike in the warming by late month