El Nino 2023-2024

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No strong since 1992? That isn't accurate...we've had 97 and 15, which were both over 2.0 ONI...hell, even 2009 edged into strong....

Yea, I mean its not a huge leap of faith to say we probably aren't reaching 2.0 ONI lol 1.5 is much more doable....

He divided it into four categories....weak, moderate, strong and very strong (super)....so 1997-98 and 2015-16 fit into the very strong (super) category.  The category between that and moderate seems to be very neglected lol, the last one that was between moderate and very strong/super was 1991-92.

 

[brooklynwx99]

well... this would do. I would pay for this to verify

basically migrates the east-based Nino into more of a Modoki. kinda makes sense when you see all the subsurface warmth near the dateline right now. the location of the tropical forcing looks great, too

obviously, we aren't going to have a feel on the location of the greatest anomalies for a few more months, at least, but I don't think this is a lock to be east-based by any means. basin-wide or Modoki make more intuitive sense looking at the state of the subsurface right now

[Terpeast]

11 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

well... this would do. I would pay for this to verify

basically migrates the east-based Nino into more of a Modoki. kinda makes sense when you see all the subsurface warmth near the dateline right now. the location of the tropical forcing looks great, too

obviously, we aren't going to have a feel on the location of the greatest anomalies for a few more months, at least, but I don't think this is a lock to be east-based by any means. basin-wide or Modoki make more intuitive sense looking at the state of the subsurface right now

Worth noting that it predicts W atlantic ssts will cool to near to slightly above normal

[raindancewx]

I normalize all Nino 3.4 temperatures winter to a 26.5C base. On that baseline, the largest y/y warm up is ~2.7C for winter. 2022-23 was a 25.93C La Nina in winter - not impressive at all. So 25.9C + 2.7C = 28.6C (+2.1C). CPC would call it +1.9C or something since they are using a warmer DJF base than I am.

Biggest y/y gains in winter (at least a 2.0C gain):

1971-72 --> 1972-73

1975-76 --> 1976-77

1981-82 --> 1982-83

1996-97 --> 1997-98

2008-09 --> 2009-10

2014-15 --> 2015-16

Once in a great while, you do get a huge warm up without an El Nino: 1988-89 to 1989-90 is nearly +2.0C as well. But since 1950, even a 2C y/y warm up is rare. Six times in 75 years, but with some clustering evident. 

I'd throw out 2015-16 for following an El Nino, and also 1976-77 and 2009-10 for occurring at the solar minimum and after very different winters (both 2008-09 and 1975-86 were dry in California). I suspect 1972-73 is actually one of the better matches, as it's a pretty healthy event but after a weak La Nina that was cold in the West. But of course the volcanic aspect of 2023-24 will need to be blended in. Have to see what Spring/Summer/Fall temps and precip do nationally.

I'm also still a bit wary this is some kind of 2012 head fake, where it Spring-Fall warmed to near El Nino conditions and then collapsed back to cold-neutral in winter. You had huge MJO movement in Feb-Mar 2012 too, at about one month off the timing to 2023.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

well... this would do. I would pay for this to verify

basically migrates the east-based Nino into more of a Modoki. kinda makes sense when you see all the subsurface warmth near the dateline right now. the location of the tropical forcing looks great, too

obviously, we aren't going to have a feel on the location of the greatest anomalies for a few more months, at least, but I don't think this is a lock to be east-based by any means. basin-wide or Modoki make more intuitive sense looking at the state of the subsurface right now

My thinking has been modoki, but perhaps raindance has other ideas...obviously its wide open, at this point. The fact that its beginning as east based does nothing for me in terms of significance. 

I will say, though, that guidance last fall in terms of evolution with regard to placement of greatest SST anomalies was piss poor...I think only the Canadien had it shifting into a modoki. Kudos to raindance for picking up on that because I did not.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1972-1973 was more east-based...that would be another death knell season for the east coast.

2012-2013 was good in SNE, but not so hot mid atl. 

[George001]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1972-1973 was more east-based...that would be another death knell season for the east coast.

2012-2013 was good in SNE, but not so hot mid atl. 

If we get an east based nino that would make it what 8 consecutive winters that finish AN for the DJF average temp in New England? That’s gotta be a record.

[JTA66]

11 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Worth noting that it predicts W atlantic ssts will cool to near to slightly above normal

I saw that and wondered what it meant. Active tropical season along the east coast? But Ninos tend to blunt Atlantic tropical activity so...??

At this range, could be nothing more than noise.

[snowman19]

If we get an east based nino that would make it what 8 consecutive winters that finish AN for the DJF average temp in New England? That’s gotta be a record.

I don’t like to use the “we’re due” argument but it’s been 25 years since we’ve had a true east-based El Niño event. Eventually it’s going to happen again, is this the year it happens? Who knows, but as of right now, that’s how it’s developing. Anyone’s guess where it goes from here. The east-based events in the past have occurred more often during -PDO regimes like the have now

[George001]

You know what would be really interesting? If this nino develops into a super nino, but also goes from east based to a modoki. 2009-2010 was a strong modoki but I don’t think we’ve ever had a super modoki nino, really strong events are usually more east based just like how most strong ninas are normally west based. 

[thunderbolt]

At least according to this graph this appears to be a basin wide El Niño by November Like everybody else says it’s just wait and see will definitely have a better answer by June or July in my opinion to see where this is possibly going

[SnoSki14]

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1972-1973 was more east-based...that would be another death knell season for the east coast.

2012-2013 was good in SNE, but not so hot mid atl. 

1972-1973 would still be an improvement over this season down here lol

[Terpeast]

Since 1972-73 keeps getting mentioned, I checked temperature records at IAD expecting a DJF torch. But no, DJF temps were close to normal. 

It only warmed to above freezing whenever precip rolled in. And there was that deep south storm that dropped more than a foot down in Georgia. 

Must have been incredible bad luck in what should have been a decent winter with a nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, George001 said:

You know what would be really interesting? If this nino develops into a super nino, but also goes from east based to a modoki. 2009-2010 was a strong modoki but I don’t think we’ve ever had a super modoki nino, really strong events are usually more east based just like how most strong ninas are normally west based. 

Normally stronger events are more east based. Best you can do with a super event is basin wide...it has to do with stronger WWB pushing greatest anomalies towards S America , I think.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t like to use the “we’re due” argument but it’s been 25 years since we’ve had a true east-based El Niño event. Eventually it’s going to happen again, is this the year it happens? Who knows, but as of right now, that’s how it’s developing. Anyone’s guess where it goes from here. The east-based events in the past have occurred more often during -PDO regimes like the have now

2006-2007 was east based.

[snowman19]

Normally stronger events are more east based. Best you can do with a super event is basin wide...it has to do with stronger WWB pushing greatest anomalies towards S America , I think.

Yea, there’s no such thing as a super Modoki El Niño. Joe Bastardi tried making that asinine argument back in 15-16 and was using 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 as his “analogs”. Worst analogs ever in history and worst winter forecast in history. Region 3.4 was +3.1C the last week of November and that fool was still hyping a very cold winter with 02-03 style snowstorms for the east coast

[40/70 Benchmark]

53 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, there’s no such thing as a super Modoki El Niño. Joe Bastardi tried making that asinine argument back in 15-16 and was using 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 as his “analogs”. Worst analogs ever in history and worst winter forecast in history. Region 3.4 was +3.1C the last week of November and that fool was still hyping a very cold winter with 02-03 style snowstorms for the east coast

I will say that that one was the most basin wide of the super events...I fell into that trap to a degree, too (not as badly as he apparently did)....and ended up too cool and snowy, though I was right about the blizzard. But, yea...no super event will be a modoki, per se. I think 2009-2010 was about as potent of a modoki as you will ever see, which in conjunction with a myriad of other solar/global/hemispheric factors explains why it was such a unicorn in the mid atlantic.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We aren't letting go of -AAM on 15day LR models, and -PNA isn't shaking either. Usually in Moderate to Strong El Nino's, you start to see some atmospheric response by now. I did do a study that said March 20-April 3 was historically slightly opposite of developing ENSO's general state, so the trend is bucking so hard there, but I think we have been in a strong -PNA regime since November, and it might not break more than the El Nino's strength can get (in general).  (I think a good test is to see how active the Atlantic Hurricane this year is, I would favor more activity like 2002 or 2004.)

[George001]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will say that that one was the most basin wide of the super events...I fell into that trap to a degree, too (not as badly as he apparently did)....and ended up too cool and snowy, though I was right about the blizzard. But, yea...no super event will be a modoki, per se. I think 2009-2010 was about as potent of a modoki as you will ever see, which in conjunction with a myriad of other solar/global/hemispheric factors explains why it was such a unicorn in the mid atlantic.

It’s a good sign that the long range models aren’t going ballistic with the nino despite the rapid warming in the enso region (especially 1.2 and 3). The nino will probably be quite powerful, but like you said in earlier posts that doesn’t mean winters over. Just gotta get the nino to move west, 2002-2003 was borderline strong and it was still a great winter for SNE. 

[George001]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, there’s no such thing as a super Modoki El Niño. Joe Bastardi tried making that asinine argument back in 15-16 and was using 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 as his “analogs”. Worst analogs ever in history and worst winter forecast in history. Region 3.4 was +3.1C the last week of November and that fool was still hyping a very cold winter with 02-03 style snowstorms for the east coast

That makes sense, if the nino gets strong enough at some point it’s going to engulf the entire enso region, not just stay to the west. There’s a big difference between +2.6 ONI (2015-2016) and his analogs. 2002-2013 peaked at +1.3, 2009-2010 peaked at +1.6, and 1957-1958 peaked at +1.8. Super nino is the most unfavorable enso state you can get for snow in the east, the drop off between moderate-strong and super is huge. 

[snowman19]

It’s a good sign that the long range models aren’t going ballistic with the nino despite the rapid warming in the enso region (especially 1.2 and 3). The nino will probably be quite powerful, but like you said in earlier posts that doesn’t mean winters over. Just gotta get the nino to move west, 2002-2003 was borderline strong and it was still a great winter for SNE. 

02-03 was a Modoki event start to finish. It didn’t start out east-based and move west

[Great Snow 1717]

19 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, there’s no such thing as a super Modoki El Niño. Joe Bastardi tried making that asinine argument back in 15-16 and was using 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 as his “analogs”. Worst analogs ever in history and worst winter forecast in history. Region 3.4 was +3.1C the last week of November and that fool was still hyping a very cold winter with 02-03 style snowstorms for the east coast

..it is why analog forecasting fails more often than it succeeds...

[DarkSharkWX]

if we do get a east based nino in the winter, it's not gonna be because its east-based now

[HailMan06]

On 3/22/2023 at 8:15 PM, thunderbolt said:

At least according to this graph this appears to be a basin wide El Niño by November Like everybody else says it’s just wait and see will definitely have a better answer by June or July in my opinion to see where this is possibly going

I’m pretty interested in how warm the model is showing global sst’s could be this year.

[raindancewx]

As I went to bed last night, with all my lights off, I was trying to figure out why my rug was pink and glowing.

Sure enough, the aurora borealis made it this far south. Pretty neat. Light went through the skylight window. Another sign of high solar activity. Fairly similar to the major solar storm of March 1989, although in that event, the northern lights were visible down to Honduras.

From around the USA.

Not like we need the extra beauty here anyway -

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

As I went to bed last night, with all my lights off, I was trying to figure out why my rug was pink and glowing.

Sure enough, the aurora borealis made it this far south. Pretty neat. Light went through the skylight window. Another sign of high solar activity. Fairly similar to the major solar storm of March 1989, although in that event, the northern lights were visible down to Honduras.

From around the USA.

Not like we need the extra beauty here anyway -

I wonder if this entire year is going to be full of this activity (though they do always seem to be stronger around the equinoxes)

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

There is a legitimate -PNA on models in April. This goes out to the extended, April 10th. We are also seeing -NAO correlating with warm pattern along the EC, US, which we have seen since 2019. This is the dominate pattern. If an El Nino does develop, it's not the main driver right now. So I'm interested to see if it gets stuck at where global SSTA-maxes are (falling under random) (obviously it's a pattern, but a Strong El Nino could be really hard to achieve). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 hours ago, raindancewx said:

As I went to bed last night, with all my lights off, I was trying to figure out why my rug was pink and glowing.

Sure enough, the aurora borealis made it this far south. Pretty neat. Light went through the skylight window. Another sign of high solar activity. Fairly similar to the major solar storm of March 1989, although in that event, the northern lights were visible down to Honduras.

Not like we need the extra beauty here anyway 

Has that ever happened before? I see a correlation globally to how Greenland is completely "breached". Historical high correlation patterns have been opposite to a W->E elongated ridge or trough from Greenland to Florida, vs a normal cutoff or amplified pattern, since 2019, and more so 2021-2022-2023. Something physical that could connect if attention lessens is Artic ice melt in the Summer, melting more as we just have an easier flow from the Tropic of Cancer to the Poles. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

You would see something like -PNA index April 1-10 in developing El Nino's (Nino 1+2>0.5) comes out like.. 5 El Nino's, 1 Neutral, 3 La Nina's by the end of the year. 

[raindancewx]

Here is the great "El Nino" of 2012 v. current SSTs.

Similar features include:

-PDO, very warm by Peru.

- Very warm western Atlantic

- Cold Indian Ocean, warm by Australia.

 

Summer 2012

I don't expect to warm up a ton and cool off a ton immediately after. But hopefully this shows why I'm still skeptical.

By the way, 2012 is a very hot Summer, very active for hurricanes, despite how warm the ENSO zones are.