El Nino 2023-2024

[Maestrobjwa]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right...its about where the forcing sets up. This is why 2018-2019 el nino acted more like a la nina. While this won't be a modoki, we could get similar weather patterns at times...probably later in the seaaon.

Now that nino was weak and rather uncounted, right? Did that have to do with forcing as well?

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now that nino was weak and rather uncounted, right? Did that have to do with forcing as well?

yeah that one was weak sauce. ONI topped out at 0.8 on the DJF mean so it had issues coupling with the WPAC warm pool and the two Ninas beforehand. if this thing is moderate to strong, it's going to couple and we're going to see Nino effects, no real doubt about that

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah that one was weak sauce. ONI topped out at 0.8 on the DJF mean so it had issues coupling with the WPAC warm pool and the two Ninas beforehand. if this thing is moderate to strong, it's going to couple and we're going to see Nino effects, no real doubt about that

Yeah that thing was wack, lol Now as of now it seems like predictions are leaning more on the stronger end of things...

Now I try not to ask TOO many questions in here, but I am wondering about this WPAC warm pool you all have been talking about. Are there any links to explain what it is and how it's been influencing things?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah that one was weak sauce. ONI topped out at 0.8 on the DJF mean so it had issues coupling with the WPAC warm pool and the two Ninas beforehand. if this thing is moderate to strong, it's going to couple and we're going to see Nino effects, no real doubt about that

 Related to this, the RONI maxed out at only ~0.4, not even at weak El Niño levels.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah that thing was wack, lol Now as of now it seems like predictions are leaning more on the stronger end of things...

Now I try not to ask TOO many questions in here, but I am wondering about this WPAC warm pool you all have been talking about. Are there any links to explain what it is and how it's been influencing things?

 Over the last 4 years, the very warm WPac/Maritime Continent has helped lead to stronger and longer MC MJO phases, often mild for the E US in winter. In addition, it often causes pseudo-MC phases when the MJO isn't in the MC. All of this tends to favor a stronger than average SE ridge.

[raindancewx]

I entered the long Tip response into an AI bot with the following prompt - "please explain this so a five year old would understand". Here is the translation for everyone who hates jargon and poor writing:

Okay, so imagine there's a big puzzle in front of us that we are trying to put together. We have different pieces of information that fit together like the pieces of a puzzle. But right now, some of those pieces aren't fitting together very well because something is interfering with them.

This interference is caused by something called GLAAM, which makes the air move in a certain way in the atmosphere. Right now, the GLAAM is not doing a very good job and it's making it harder for us to figure out how things are working together.

There are other things going on too, like ocean patterns and wind patterns that can also affect how everything fits together. And all of these things can make it hard for us to predict what's going to happen in the future. It's like trying to solve a really hard puzzle, but some of the pieces don't seem to match up like they should.

[Terpeast]

12 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I entered the long Tip response into an AI bot with the following prompt - "please explain this so a five year old would understand". Here is the translation for everyone who hates jargon and poor writing:

Okay, so imagine there's a big puzzle in front of us that we are trying to put together. We have different pieces of information that fit together like the pieces of a puzzle. But right now, some of those pieces aren't fitting together very well because something is interfering with them.

This interference is caused by something called GLAAM, which makes the air move in a certain way in the atmosphere. Right now, the GLAAM is not doing a very good job and it's making it harder for us to figure out how things are working together.

There are other things going on too, like ocean patterns and wind patterns that can also affect how everything fits together. And all of these things can make it hard for us to predict what's going to happen in the future. It's like trying to solve a really hard puzzle, but some of the pieces don't seem to match up like they should.

I’m still not sure a five year old would understand this…

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

I entered the long Tip response into an AI bot with the following prompt - "please explain this so a five year old would understand". Here is the translation for everyone who hates jargon and poor writing:

Okay, so imagine there's a big puzzle in front of us that we are trying to put together. We have different pieces of information that fit together like the pieces of a puzzle. But right now, some of those pieces aren't fitting together very well because something is interfering with them.

This interference is caused by something called GLAAM, which makes the air move in a certain way in the atmosphere. Right now, the GLAAM is not doing a very good job and it's making it harder for us to figure out how things are working together.

There are other things going on too, like ocean patterns and wind patterns that can also affect how everything fits together. And all of these things can make it hard for us to predict what's going to happen in the future. It's like trying to solve a really hard puzzle, but some of the pieces don't seem to match up like they should.

There is a class of users that are directly or indirectly engaging in this social media. That is the target of most of my contribution and you’re not in that particular group.

[GaWx]

Correction time in 3.4 (I assume only for short term): 24 hour cooloffs

-CDAS has cooled 0.061, largest cooling since Mar 19th

-Coral Reef has cooled 0.081, largest cooling since before Mar 15th

 

[snowman19]

The El Niño atmospheric response is increasing

[snowman19]

Correction time in 3.4 (I assume only for short term): 24 hour cooloffs
-CDAS has cooled 0.061, largest cooling since Mar 19th
-Coral Reef has cooled 0.081, largest cooling since before Mar 15th
 

Likely very temporary with another major -SOI onslaught and WWBs coming. Once these TC’s start forming in the Eastern Pacific, it’s only going to increase the westerlies/WWBs behind them as they move away

[GaWx]

37 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Likely very temporary with another major -SOI onslaught and WWBs coming. Once these TC’s start forming in the Eastern Pacific, it’s only going to increase the westerlies/WWBs behind them as they move away

 

OISSTv2.1 cooled 0.078, largest 24 hour cooling since before 3/15.

 While these are notable, I'm confident  like you are that these are just short term "corrections" after a very rapid warming.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The El Niño atmospheric response is increasing

It does appear the Nino will almost certainly have to be quite strong to couple with the atmosphere and counter the west Pacific warm pool. 

Very curious to see how the hurricane season plays out though with record warm MDR SSTs present. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It does appear the Nino will almost certainly have to be quite strong to couple with the atmosphere and counter the west Pacific warm pool. 

Very curious to see how the hurricane season plays out though with record warm MDR SSTs present. 

The combo of that west Pac warm pool that has been working against us several years running and a robust el nino could produce a nice result.

[GaWx]

On 6/5/2023 at 7:44 PM, GaWx said:

 We'll see if it does. I'm educatedly guessing based on model biases and the very warm MC that it will. The GEFS/EPS do have a moderate move through 4/5. Some of the others don't even get it there outside of the circle as of now.

 Newly developing Nino events in 1986 (June), 1997 (May), 2002 (May and again in June), and 2004 (May) all had moderate or stronger moves through both phases 4 and 5 during May and/or June. 

 Looking later: 1976 (Aug/Sep), 1979 (Sep/Oct), 2002 (Aug), and 2009 (Sep) had similar.

 That means that 7 of the 13 new El Niño events during the period covered by MJO historical data had a moderate or strong move through both 4 and 5 at some point(s) between May and Oct.

 So, there'd be nothing unusual if 2023 were to have a moderate or strong move through both 4 and 5 this month.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

Over the last 5 days, the GEFS/EPS have retained going into a moderate MJO phase 4 but have backed off then going into moderate phase 5. Instead they and all models go faster back into the COD before reaching 5. Based on recent years, that's somewhat unusual per my memory and keeping in mind that the very warm MC tends to favor the MJO getting well into phase 5.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

The new Copernicus model run just came out today….add that to the growing list of models showing a very strong El Niño by fall

[snowman19]

Over the last 5 days, the GEFS/EPS have retained going into a moderate MJO phase 4 but have backed off then going into moderate phase 5. Instead they and all models go faster back into the COD before reaching 5. Based on recent years, that's somewhat unusual per my memory and keeping in mind that the very warm MC tends to favor the MJO getting well into phase 5.
 
 
 

The new Euro is showing a strong +IOD developing. It’s going to constructively interfere with the El Niño. I think these MJO attempts are about to change in a big way

[snowman19]

@Gawx

[chubbs]

The Pacific subsurface today vs a month ago. The EPac has warmed further while Kelvin waves continue to track eastward in the central/west Pac moving more warm water east. As others have noted,  while cooling somewhat  the WPac is still warm. This is a double-edged sword. Could work against full development of nino forcing; but, at the same time there is plenty of warm water to be sent eastward by Kelvin waves if WWB continue.

[GaWx]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx

 

[snowman19]

 

Yes. That upcoming WWB means business. So does the developing +IOD, which is going to constructively interfere with the El Nino and you can kiss the La Niña like MJO phases goodbye

[bluewave]

53 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes. That upcoming WWB means business. So does the developing +IOD, which is going to constructively interfere with the El Nino and you can kiss the La Niña like MJO phases goodbye

Nothing has been able to shut down the the Nina MJO phases. Remember the MJO 4-6 activity with the record IOD in the fall of 2019 into 2020. Then the record MJO 4-6 in December 2015. The record WPAC warm pool has had been a big player.

 

[snowman19]

Over the last 5 days, the GEFS/EPS have retained going into a moderate MJO phase 4 but have backed off then going into moderate phase 5. Instead they and all models go faster back into the COD before reaching 5. Based on recent years, that's somewhat unusual per my memory and keeping in mind that the very warm MC tends to favor the MJO getting well into phase 5.
 
 
 

Once the +IOD gets going, it’s going to produce strong subsidence over the IO and the Maritime Continent. That should effectively kill the “Niña-like” MJO wave phases

[snowman19]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nothing has been able to shut down the the Nina MJO phases. Remember the MJO 4-6 activity with the record IOD in the fall of 2019 into 2020. Then the record MJO 4-6 in December 2015. The record WPAC warm pool has had been a big player.

 

Right, however, now that we have this strong El Niño event developing, coupled with a very healthy +IOD, my thinking is that this may be enough to finally break the IO and Maritime Continent MJO phases. We will have to wait and see

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Once the +IOD gets going, it’s going to produce strong subsidence over the IO and the Maritime Continent. That should effectively kill the “Niña-like” MJO wave phases

 But keep in mind the MJO history that I posted last week:

"Newly developing Nino events in 1986 (June), 1997 (May), 2002 (May and again in June), and 2004 (May) all had moderate or stronger moves through both phases 4 and 5 during May and/or June. 

 Looking later: 1976 (Aug/Sep), 1979 (Sep/Oct), 2002 (Aug), and 2009 (Sep) had similar.

 That means that 7 of the 13 new El Niño events during the period covered by MJO historical data had a moderate or strong move through both 4 and 5 at some point(s) between May and Oct.

 So, there'd be nothing unusual if 2023 were to have a moderate or strong move through both 4 and 5 this month.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ "

 ---------

 So, even though it now appears per latest model consensus that it won't occur this month, don't be surprised if one phase 4 and 5 moderate or strong crossing still occurs between July and October regardless of how strong El Niño gets.

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Right, however, now that we have this strong El Niño event developing, coupled with a very healthy +IOD, my thinking is that this may be enough to finally break the IO and Maritime Continent MJO phases. We will have to wait and see

Last week's worth of MJO is collapsing ...  The models likely to have been proven too aggressive.   So if all that is true ... heh, it certainly hasn't begun to help just yet.

[roardog]

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Right, however, now that we have this strong El Niño event developing, coupled with a very healthy +IOD, my thinking is that this may be enough to finally break the IO and Maritime Continent MJO phases. We will have to wait and see

Why do you feel this developing El Niño will be able to when even the Super Nino in ‘15 couldn’t? What’s different this time?

[GaWx]

My educated guess for tomorrow's NOAA weekly release is for either +0.9 or +1.0 in Nino 3.4. Any other guesses?

[snowman19]

Why do you feel this developing El Niño will be able to when even the Super Nino in ‘15 couldn’t? What’s different this time?

We can keep using the persistence argument/forecast but eventually that doesn’t work anymore. Patterns are bound to change, they can’t stay the same forever, especially after almost 10 years