Typhoon Tip Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 Not sure I'm jiving with any distinction of ENSO warm biases, to date, when the whole "oceanasphere" is still recovering from a +1.5C spring spike ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not sure I'm jiving with any distinction of ENSO warm biases, to date, when the whole "oceanasphere" is still recovering from a +1.5C spring spike ... Per Twitter I didn't recognize the name, but who ever retweeted him must have been a respected met or climatologist, there are pixels in an North Atlantic SST plot anomaly map that were out of range high. Or I see no obvious reason for a possible record warm SST in the Nino regions not happening Not sure how this affects the Atlantic hurricane season, 2015 was below average but nothing like 1997 or 1982. NYC/NE subforums (childhood connections to both), one heck of a great pattern with confluence and a super juiced SST and incredible dynamic cooling will be required to get snow near sea level, if I had to guess. I saw mention prior of the Mid Atlantic pattern, most of the snow in a season coming in only a couple of events, spreading N, and can see that this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 @Bluewave The new GEFS is showing a strong WWB in the EPAC (regions 3 and 1+2). Another big warming coming in that area? I think this event is going to be known for its WWBs and downwelling Kelvin waves in the EPAC breaking on the South American coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not sure I'm jiving with any distinction of ENSO warm biases, to date, when the whole "oceanasphere" is still recovering from a +1.5C spring spike ... Yeah, that spike is running nearly 4σ above the 1981-2010 average and over 1σ above the previous record from all the way back in 2022 (via OISST). I'm not sure how this will effect the evolution of the current ENSO cycle or how it will affect the global scale circulation patterns. I do think a lot of this spike is occurring outside the tropical region, but at a cursory glance it appears there is enough contribution in the tropical region that it may attenuate the RONI values more than it might have otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 55 minutes ago, bdgwx said: Yeah, that spike is running nearly 4σ above the 1981-2010 average and over 1σ above the previous record from all the way back in 2022 (via OISST). I'm not sure how this will effect the evolution of the current ENSO cycle or how it will affect the global scale circulation patterns. I do think a lot of this spike is occurring outside the tropical region, but at a cursory glance it appears there is enough contribution in the tropical region that it may attenuate the RONI values more than it might have otherwise. Certainly enough to give pause... That first bold is the 65 million $ question. That's the winter. 2nd bold, as Bluewave and I have been pointing out, the states of the ENSO's no longer seem to act as independently in forcing as they did prior climate generations - in fact, at times in recent years, being almost completely decoupled from the hemispheric circulation mode. Not all the time, again... increasingly observed in winters since 1998. Particularly the 2015-2016 warm ENSO. When the anomalies are calculated, I don't believe they are deferential to the d(gp). I believe the integral is more important than anomaly itself. This recent year the -ENSO was coupled better - but it was also nuanced. We began suspecting the ENSO dispersion mechanics might be altering about 8 years ago, noting the gradients were becoming odd. Personal op-ed: In the atmosphere, setting air-land speed records on cross oceanic flights ( west --> east) approaching sonic speeds is happening because the air craft are caught up in unusually strong basal flow rates around planet. 230 kt winds and 350 kt thrust to maintain lift above the 500 mb level... That is the mid cold season Hadley cell having converted spatial dimension into mechanical power in form of wind, which is suggestive by counting the isopleths on the 500 mb sfc ... There's like 15, between S/W now - regardless of ENSO warm(cool) phase. It's indicative of the tropical swelling then being compressed by boreal seasonaility in the cold season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 That warm wave seems to be leveling out now. 12z GFS ensembles look actually La Ninaish in the MR/LR, Take it for what it's worth. I contest that the globe is in a state that would have to spin up a +1c> Nino to level it off, call it -AAM or whatever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 5 hours ago, snowman19 said: The thing is though, every Nino in history has weakened during northern hemispheric winter. Every Nino on record normally peaks in November/December then weakens in Jan, Feb, Mar. If that’s what this one does, it would be perfectly normal and expected Sure, but 1983, 1998 and 2016 didn't get below 2.0 until March and April. That is too late...the latter got interesting because it got further west. I'll roll the dice with a weaker version of 2015-2016....though still likely warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 AMO has recently had an inverse correlation to ENSO. Since 1995 +AMO change, we have seen 8 El Nino's and 15 La Nina's. Here is May AMO correlation to Dec: https://ibb.co/BTQ2pzk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 Remember how DT was freaking out about the PDO reversing very quickly? Complete bullshit for May - Keep in mind, these values are now "normalized" from the "un-normalized" values Mantua produced before. It's kind of dumb to have a normalized index from something that's produced with such tortured methodology in the first place. But it is what it is. Behaviorally, I still like 1972, it's been near identical on both PDO values and Nino 3.4 values all year. It followed a multi-year La Nina, and the 1971-72 to 1972-73 transition is one of the only La Nina to El Nino transitions in the last century where the La Nina was cold in the West. 2022-11-01T00:00:00Z -2.12 2022-12-01T00:00:00Z -1.98 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z -0.92 2023-02-01T00:00:00Z -1.1 2023-03-01T00:00:00Z -1.63 2023-04-01T00:00:00Z -2.18 2023-05-01T00:00:00Z -1.65 https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO Previous developing El Nino May PDO (normalized) values: 2018 - 0.00 2014 - +1.41 2009 - -0.75 2006 - +0.35 2002 - -0.82 1997 - +1.84 1994 - +0.83 1991 - -1.04 1986 - +1.06 1982 - -0.60 1976 - -0.73 1972 - -1.81 1968 - 0.70 1965 - -0.48 1963 - -1.07 1957 - +0.14 1951 - -0.91 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 38 minutes ago, raindancewx said: Remember how DT was freaking out about the PDO reversing very quickly? Complete bullshit for May - Keep in mind, these values are now "normalized" from the "un-normalized" values Mantua produced before. It's kind of dumb to have a normalized index from something that's produced with such tortured methodology in the first place. But it is what it is. Behaviorally, I still like 1972, it's been near identical on both PDO values and Nino 3.4 values all year. It followed a multi-year La Nina, and the 1971-72 to 1972-73 transition is one of the only La Nina to El Nino transitions in the last century where the La Nina was cold in the West. 2022-11-01T00:00:00Z -2.12 2022-12-01T00:00:00Z -1.98 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z -0.92 2023-02-01T00:00:00Z -1.1 2023-03-01T00:00:00Z -1.63 2023-04-01T00:00:00Z -2.18 2023-05-01T00:00:00Z -1.65 https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO Previous developing El Nino May PDO (normalized) values: 2018 - 0.00 2014 - +1.41 2009 - -0.75 2006 - +0.35 2002 - -0.82 1997 - +1.84 1994 - +0.83 1991 - -1.04 1986 - +1.06 1982 - -0.60 1976 - -0.73 1972 - -1.81 1968 - 0.70 1965 - -0.48 1963 - -1.07 1957 - +0.14 1951 - -0.91 I’d wait a few months longer before prescribing a -pdo with +enso. Although that warm tongue east of Japan is persistent, note the trends over the past 4 weeks in the central-east pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 10 hours ago, Terpeast said: I’d wait a few months longer before prescribing a -pdo with +enso. Although that warm tongue east of Japan is persistent, note the trends over the past 4 weeks in the central-east pacific. The problem with the PDO relationship with the < 20N "might" be in an interference pattern caused by the impressive -GLAAM. The atmospheric momentum stuff is clearly ... abusively negative right now ( bit of sarcasm...) Without even seeing the graphs - just look at all these shortened wave lengths with deep perforated nadirs spinning around. We are entering a general teleconnection mode featuring -PNA/neutralizing AO with a modestly postive EPO... But the snake in the grass about the -GLAAM is that the R-wave coherency gets distorted. With it ...the correlations don't realize as well. That is why we are seeing a -PNA/neutral AO/modestly positive EPO yet no appreciable heat wave ridging ... The GFS has been trying to do so ( the operational version..) about every 3rd of 4th cycle, before failing continuity and collapsing back into these bowling ball lows and severed ridge nodes look. The point of that paragraph is to exemplify how an operational forecasting suffers during -GLAAMs. In the same vein, it's not likely - to me - that a correlation between PDO and ENSO would work too well for the time being... And a more analytic reason there is because the PDO is susceptible to sea-surface stressing/wind pattern bias, and those can be imparted by these short-wave scale spatial-temporal dimensions. The broader correlations work better - inherently during +GLAAM, which we definitely do not have that advantage now. It may also be related to why the MJO wave is robustly transmitted out of the Marine subcontinent over the next two weeks, without the canonical warm N/A pattern pass/pulsation ( as is presently modeled..). Basically, ... we suffer a planetary -scale negative interference pattern. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 For the first time in many days, the CDAS Nino 3.4 SSTa actually ticked down from six hours earlier albeit barely (from +0.976 to +0.975). It also looks like Nino 4 is cooling some. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 For the first time in many days, the CDAS Nino 3.4 SSTa actually ticked down from six hours earlier albeit barely (from +0.976 to +0.975). It also looks like Nino 4 is cooling some. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 Classic Eastern Pacific (EP) canonical El Niño. The east-based warming/WWBs/downwelling Kelvin waves just continue to get re-enforced through Bjerknes feedback: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 This isn't up to date, and the looping coarseness comes off as a rather cartoony ... but, the CPC is/was indicating a modest anomaly beginning to creep west from the near Peruvian shore heat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 This isn't up to date, and the looping coarseness comes off as a rather cartoony ... but, the CPC is/was indicating a modest anomaly beginning to creep west from the near Peruvian shore heat Region 1+2 is blazing again, up to +2.6C and climbing, region 3 is at +1.2C and also climbing. This event isn’t just east-based, it’s extremely east-based. And there’s yet another Eastern Pacific WWB/downwelling Kelvin wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 22 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Region 1+2 is blazing again, up to +2.6C and climbing, region 3 is at +1.2C and also climbing. This event isn’t just east-based, it’s extremely east-based. And there’s yet another Eastern Pacific WWB/downwelling Kelvin wave the event beginning east based at this point in time has little to no bearing on where the greatest anomalies will be in the fall and winter. I would bet this ends up becoming solidly basin wide with the core of the SST anomalies around 110-140W 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the event beginning east based at this point in time has little to no bearing on where the greatest anomalies will be in the fall and winter. I would bet this ends up becoming solidly basin wide with the core of the SST anomalies around 110-140W 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 Primer please. It is clear the positive feedback that strengthens El Nino. What causes El Ninos to fade when they seems to have everything going for them? (From a guy who Googled the definition of GLAAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 the event beginning east based at this point in time has little to no bearing on where the greatest anomalies will be in the fall and winter. I would bet this ends up becoming solidly basin wide with the core of the SST anomalies around 110-140WAnything is possible and we will see. I am however very confident that this is not becoming a Modoki like some other people are wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Anything is possible and we will see. I am however very confident that this is not becoming a Modoki like some other people are wishcasting He didn't say modoki, he said basin wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 12 minutes ago, Terpeast said: He didn't say modoki, he said basin wide JB is apparently saying Modoki. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 He didn't say modoki, he said basin wideI’m not talking about him. JB said it’s turning into a Modoki Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 100%. what's nice is that the forcing from the seasonals is actually centered around 160-190W... would perhaps give us some Modoki-like stretches where the forcing leaks towards the dateline between without actually needing the Modoki nino. the WPAC warm pool might actually help us out rather than hurt us the forcing is really the main thing. the location of the SST anomalies just promotes forcing in certain spots, but I am very optimistic if we actually get forcing that pretty much sits in the central Pacific on average 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: JB is apparently saying Modoki. Ok, I mean, who listens to JB anymore these days? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: what's nice is that the forcing from the seasonals is actually centered around 160-190W... would perhaps give us some Modoki-like stretches where the forcing leaks towards the dateline between without actually needing the Modoki nino. the WPAC warm pool might actually help us out rather than hurt us the forcing is really the main thing. the location of the SST anomalies just promotes forcing in certain spots, but I am very optimistic if we actually get forcing that pretty much sits in the central Pacific on average Yeah I was thinking that even if the nino is basin wide, or even with a slight east lean, the WPAC warm pool might pull the forcing a little bit further west. We could see split forcing in the WPAC and EPAC, and then the MJO might punch through and these centers of forcing could combine in those locations displayed above. Also, interesting to see slight -VP anomalies across the southern US. Strong STJ signature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah I was thinking that even if the nino is basin wide, or even with a slight east lean, the WPAC warm pool might pull the forcing a little bit further west. We could see split forcing in the WPAC and EPAC, and then the MJO might punch through and these centers of forcing could combine in those locations displayed above. Also, interesting to see slight -VP anomalies across the southern US. Strong STJ signature? yup that's definitely from the STJ. no matter how this winter goes, it'll be really interesting. excited to see what happens 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Anything is possible and we will see. I am however very confident that this is not becoming a Modoki like some other people are wishcasting I believe the consensus is, it’s going to be a basin wide not East base or Modoki but like you said anything is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 51 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I’m not talking about him. JB said it’s turning into a Modoki No way it goes modoki IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: what's nice is that the forcing from the seasonals is actually centered around 160-190W... would perhaps give us some Modoki-like stretches where the forcing leaks towards the dateline between without actually needing the Modoki nino. the WPAC warm pool might actually help us out rather than hurt us the forcing is really the main thing. the location of the SST anomalies just promotes forcing in certain spots, but I am very optimistic if we actually get forcing that pretty much sits in the central Pacific on average Right...its about where the forcing sets up. This is why 2018-2019 el nino acted more like a la nina. While this won't be a modoki, we could get similar weather patterns at times...probably later in the seaaon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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