El Nino 2023-2024

[griteater]

Latest UK Met Office OSTIA up to +1.09

 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, griteater said:

Latest UK Met Office OSTIA up to +1.09

 

 OSTIA and Coral Reef Watch SSTa are both +1.1+ while OISST v2.1 and CDAS are ~+0.9 as of 0Z on June 7th. So, there's 0.2+ difference.

Edit for midday June 7th OISST update: it actually just rose to +1.028 per the midday update. So,  OSTIA and Coral Reef are ~+1.1 while OISST is a bit over +1.0 and CDAS is ~+0.9.

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 OSTIA and Coral Reef Watch SSTa are both +1.1+ while OISST v2.1 and CDAS are ~+0.9 as of 0Z on June 7th. So, there's 0.2+ difference.

Yeah, this could be only the 3rd June after 1997 and 2015 with a +1 or greater anomaly in Nino 3.4.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

[GaWx]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this could be only the 3rd June after 1997 and 2015 with a +1 or greater anomaly in Nino 3.4.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

 Similarly, Nino 3 could be only the 4th June since 1950 per ERSST with +1.3+. This includes 1983, which was +1.52 due to the leftover warmth from the 1982-3 Nino.

[snowman19]

Yeah, this could be only the 3rd June after 1997 and 2015 with a +1 or greater anomaly in Nino 3.4.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

Yes. It’s looking like the POAMA may have indeed lead the way with this one. If the models are correct and this peaks at or eclipses +2.0C in region 3.4 there will be papers written about it and it will be talked about for the next 20-30 years for the way it developed

[Terpeast]

59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes. It’s looking like the POAMA may have indeed lead the way with this one. If the models are correct and this peaks at or eclipses +2.0C in region 3.4 there will be papers written about it and it will be talked about for the next 20-30 years for the way it developed

There was another paper I came across that said that wwbs may not necessarily lead a nino. I forget where though. 

[so_whats_happening]

Sorry been on vacation the last week. This is by far the most influence we have seen from the WWB. The trades almost reversed completely across 140-90W. Lets see if we have more in the pipeline.

[so_whats_happening]

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

Sorry been on vacation the last week. This is by far the most influence we have seen from the WWB. The trades almost reversed completely across 140-90W. Lets see if we have more in the pipeline.

To compare to the previous impressive WWB event back in Feb-Mar that had the insane MJO wave with it.

[snowman19]

There was another paper I came across that said that wwbs may not necessarily lead a nino. I forget where though. 

Yes, Paul Roundy said that exact same thing back at the end of April. Said we didn’t need a WWB progression like 1997 for this event to get very strong. He’s been on the very east-based El Nino migrating itself west into region 3.4 train. He still thinks this one is going to reach super

[GaWx]

 The consensus of the latest EPS and GEFS runs for the implied SOI is for 6/8-12 to average ~+13 to +17 and for 6/18-22 to average ~-13 to -23. So, starting off  with perhaps the highest 5 day average since early April, but then falling and reaching another solid -SOI period in the 11-15 day period.

[snowman19]

 The consensus of the latest EPS and GEFS runs for the implied SOI is for 6/8-12 to average ~+13 to +17 and for 6/18-22 to average ~-13 to -23. So, starting off  with perhaps the highest 5 day average since early April, but then falling and reaching another solid -SOI period in the 11-15 day period.

Probably another round of extreme negative SOI coming in less than 2 weeks if the models are correct

[George001]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, Paul Roundy said that exact same thing back at the end of April. Said we didn’t need a WWB progression like 1997 for this event to get very strong. He’s been on the very east-based El Nino migrating itself west into region 3.4 train. He still thinks this one is going to reach super

Paul Roundy knows his shit. He’s been on board with a big event for a while now, considering nino 3.4 is already nearly +1 in June I think it’s safe to say he had the right idea, even if it doesn’t quite make it to super. At this point weak is off the table, and moderate is becoming more and more unlikely, +1 in June is really impressive.

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

The new POAMA isn’t budging. While it’s the warmest, all the other models are warming and starting to come towards a +2.0C consensus for a peak this coming fall

[GaWx]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new POAMA isn’t budging. While it’s the warmest, all the other models are warming and starting to come towards a +2.0C consensus for a peak this coming fall

Not only did it not budge, it actually increased by 0.2 for the later months! The problem I have is that the Euro is ~0.7 cooler and the May Euro (similar to June run) hasn't actually verified too cool in autumn since way back in 2004! So, either BoM is going to verify way too warm or else the May Euro is going to verify too cold for the first time in 19 years! Despite the lack of a net bias over the last 10 years, BoM did verify too warm by 0.6 last year and two other times since 2014.

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, Terpeast said:

There was another paper I came across that said that wwbs may not necessarily lead a nino. I forget where though. 

We got the WWBs but they were in the WPAC and EPAC instead of near the Dateline. Would be an interesting study to see what lead to this particular evolution. The WPAC kelvin wave development from last winter was in response to the IO WWBs crossing into the WPAC. Then the anomalous EPAC WWB in March rapidly warmed the EPAC.

 

 

[csnavywx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We got the WWBs but they were in the WPAC and EPAC instead of near the Dateline. Would be an interesting study to see what lead to this particular evolution. The WPAC kelvin wave development from last winter was in response to the IO WWBs crossing into the WPAC. Then the anomalous EPAC WWB in March rapidly warmed the EPAC.

 

 

Warm pool in the NE Pac may be a contributing factor as well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, George001 said:

Paul Roundy knows his shit. He’s been on board with a big event for a while now, considering nino 3.4 is already nearly +1 in June I think it’s safe to say he had the right idea, even if it doesn’t quite make it to super. At this point weak is off the table, and moderate is becoming more and more unlikely, +1 in June is really impressive.

Agree.

[GaWx]

CPC officially declares El Niño:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

[Terpeast]

32 minutes ago, GaWx said:

CPC officially declares El Niño:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

They’re giving it a 56% chance of a strong nino, and 84% chance moderate or higher. 

[bdgwx]

So far the dynamic models are beating out the statistical models in terms of skill. As I understand that is typical through the spring forecast barrier, but once June comes around the statistical models start exhibiting similar skill to their dynamic counterparts. I wonder if we are going to see a jump up in the statistical average on the June IRI update?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hello El Nino My Old Friend: El Nino Watch in Effect After Protracted La Nina | Eastern Mass Weather

[snowman19]

The NMME is going nuclear with the Nino this summer:

https://twitter.com/climate_earth20/status/1666499588201627649?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[snowman19]

Agree.

@Raindancewx is on board too

[snowman19]

ENSO region 1+2 warming again…almost up to +2.5C. Region 3 up to +1.2C and climbing…https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino12.png

[thunderbolt]

 

[brooklynwx99]

the NMME is similar to the CanSIPS in that it does initially have a strong east-based Nino that becomes basin wide as it weakens once into the late fall and winter. this looks like a pretty plausible scenario where the Nino tops out at high-end strong but settles to around 1.5C once into winter

although the Nino becomes basin-wide, I would imagine that there remains a western lean to the forcing due to the WPAC warm pool, as the height anomalies resemble more of a central-based event rather than a traditional basin-wide one. intriguing, to say the least... the 2016-type winter could be more of a legit analog at this point, but I would expect a significantly weaker Nino than that. no reason to go for a Nino over 2C in a three-month mean yet

[brooklynwx99]

it's actually kind of like a stronger version of 1957-58. that ENSO event started off very east based as well

[snowman19]

the NMME is similar to the CanSIPS in that it does initially have a strong east-based Nino that becomes basin wide as it weakens once into the late fall and winter. this looks like a pretty plausible scenario where the Nino tops out at high-end strong but settles to around 1.5C once into winter

although the Nino becomes basin-wide, I would imagine that there remains a western lean to the forcing due to the WPAC warm pool, as the height anomalies resemble more of a central-based event rather than a traditional basin-wide one. intriguing, to say the least... the 2016-type winter could be more of a legit analog at this point, but I would expect a significantly weaker Nino than that. no reason to go for a Nino over 2C in a three-month mean yet

The thing is though, every Nino in history has weakened during northern hemispheric winter. Every Nino on record normally peaks in November/December then weakens in Jan, Feb, Mar. If that’s what this one does, it would be perfectly normal and expected

[brooklynwx99]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The thing is though, every Nino in history has weakened during northern hemispheric winter. Every Nino on record normally peaks in November/December then weakens in Jan, Feb, Mar. If that’s what this one does, it would be perfectly normal and expected

i know. it'll be interesting to see where the forcing actually sets up. farther east and we likely have a 1982/1997 type winter, while things could get very interesting if we get the same location as 2016 with a slightly weaker Nino. time will tell