El Nino 2023-2024

[Yanksfan]

If this El Niño goes nuclear I’m hoping for a western lean or you can kiss another winter goodbye.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I guess the talk of this event developing in the Eastern Pacific then expanding west like the pre-1980 El Niños has some good merit

I really don't see the big deal with this developing in the east....I have just analyzed charts for every el nino event from the fall throughout the winter dating back to 1950, and the only ones that didn't begin well east before translating westward are some of the modoki seasons, like 2003 and 2010. Really all we can glean from this is it won't be a modoki, but that doesn't preclude it from being basin wide or even taking on a westward lean by winter.

Every el nino translates westward to some degree, but the trick is to determine how much and where is the starting point. 2002 and 2009 started west of S America, whereas the vast majority begin near the Peru coast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

In the old days before the expansion of the WPAC warm pool.

 

https://phys.org/news/2021-04-distinctive-mjo-super-el-nino.html

 

A research group, led by Dr. Wenjun Zhang from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology analyzed MJO activity of the super El Niño event during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015/16. Observations show that the western Pacific MJO activity was strongly suppressed during the peak phase of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 super El Niño events. However, during the crest of the 2015/16 super El Niño event, western Pacific MJO-related convection was enhanced.

"It is apparent that the enhanced western Pacific MJO is mainly related to its sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly distribution and the associated background thermodynamic conditions." said Dr. Zhang. His team's complete research and data are published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

When compared to the previous super El Niño events, the warm SST anomaly, or change from average, of the 2015/16 El Niño was located more westward than during the other two extreme seasons. Additionally, no significant cold SST anomaly was detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the moisture and air temperature tended to increase in the central-western Pacific during the winter of 2015/16 unlike the previous super El Niño events.

This goes along with my line of thought that this is ultimately going to be more of a basin wide deal, than an extreme east based event.....which is going to keep the east coast in the game for a very sizeable snow event, regardless of whether the ensuing winter is an inferno in the aggregate. I don't see how you prevent episodes in which the forcing sneaks west with that much warm water out there.

I still don't think this el nino will break an ONI of 2.0, but if it were to, we are probably looking at more of a 2016 outcome vs 1998.

[GaWx]

24 hour Nino 3.4 SSTa changes per Levi Cowan's CDAS graphs 6Z to 6Z:

5/29 to 5/30: +0.039

5/30 to 5/31: +0.023

5/31 to 6/1: +0.049

6/1 to 6/2: +0.009

6/2 to 6/3: +0.023

6/3 to 6/4: +0.036

6/4 to 6/5: +0.033

6/5 to 6/6: +0.084

 

 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

I really don't see the big deal with this developing in the east....I have just analyzed charts for every el nino event from the fall throughout the winter dating back to 1950, and the only ones that didn't begin well east before translating westward are some of the modoki seasons, like 2003 and 2010. Really all we can glean from this is it won't be a modoki, but that doesn't preclude it from being basin wide or even taking on a westward lean by winter.
Every el nino translates westward to some degree, but the trick is to determine how much and where is the starting point. 2002 and 2009 started west of S America, whereas the vast majority begin near the Peru coast.

If it goes high-end strong/“low-end” super it’s most likely going to be a torch winter with a higher than normal chance of a KU bomb up the coast with the juiced STJ if you get really lucky and thread the needle an arctic cold shot, a la 1983/2016. This turning into a Modoki is not an option IMO

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If it goes high-end strong/“low-end” super it’s most likely going to be a torch winter with a higher than normal chance of a KU bomb up the coast with the juiced STJ if you get really lucky and thread the needle an arctic cold shot, a la 1983/2016. This turning into a Modoki is not an option IMO

Agreed....but if its a basin-wide power-house el nino, I would be surprised if we DIDN'T see a MECS/HECS....don't think you need much luck. I predicted that Jan 2016 event in my outlook from November.

1986-87 is interesting in that it began more like a modoki and actually drifted east into winter...probably why that season was more front-loaded than most el nino events...January was pretty epic and then it ended with a thud.

[George001]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If it goes high-end strong/“low-end” super it’s most likely going to be a torch winter with a higher than normal chance of a KU bomb up the coast with the juiced STJ if you get really lucky and thread the needle an arctic cold shot, a la 1983/2016. This turning into a Modoki is not an option IMO

If the nino gets that strong well above normal temps and well below normal snow is a good bet, especially for SNE. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This goes along with my line of thought that this is ultimately going to be more of a basin wide deal, than an extreme east based event.....which is going to keep the east coast in the game for a very sizeable snow event, regardless of whether the ensuing winter is an inferno in the aggregate. I don't see how you prevent episodes in which the forcing sneaks west with that much warm water out there.

I still don't think this el nino will break an ONI of 2.0, but if it were to, we are probably looking at more of a 2016 outcome vs 1998.

The Western Pacific is starting out more like 2015 than any of the other really strong El Niño years. Those +30C SSTs pull the forcing west closer to the Dateline instead of tucked in near South America in an event like 97-98. So more of a basin wide event rather than east based. The latest ECMWF has a +1.6 to+1.7 anomaly in Nino 4 which would average out to +29C to +30C.

[snowman19]

[roardog]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

That’s like betting on the outcome of a football game when it’s already in the 4th quarter.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

28 minutes ago, roardog said:

That’s like betting on the outcome of a football game when it’s already in the 4th quarter.

I wonder what the money line was on the Patriots beginning of the 4th against Atlanta.  But I don't see El Nino blowing the lead.

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Western Pacific is starting out more like 2015 than any of the other really strong El Niño years. Those +30C SSTs pull the forcing west closer to the Dateline instead of tucked in near South America in an event like 97-98. So more of a basin wide event rather than east based. The latest ECMWF has a +1.6 to+1.7 anomaly in Nino 4 which would average out to +29C to +30C.

I have completed my El Nino composites by both intensity and orientation....those will be out in a blog post within the week.

I have determined intensity by mainly ONI, but not 100%....there is some consideration given to both time of peak and MEI....for instance, I consider 1987-1988 to be moderate for winter, even though it peaked as strong late in the summer. I also consider 2009-2010 as moderate, despite a 1.6 ONI peak narrowly qualifying it as strong. due to the weaker MEI (moderate)...I think this better reflects the forcing, as well.....because as you will see, weak of largely synonymous with modiko and east based strong. This makes sense, intuitively, since the stronger WWB needed to achieve a high ONI are not likely to allow the eastern regions to cool much.

[csnavywx]

Finally seeing a bit of a trade surge near the dateline, albeit weaker and later than originally forecast a couple weeks ago and paired with (initally) westerly anomalies and outright westerlies north of the equator from 140W on east. That's likely the reason 3.4 has shot up quickly. Should see some flattening off of that trend once the trades pop back up in the next several days. However, this trade surge looks rather limited in duration. Perhaps 2 weeks tops. EPS is more like 7-10 days.

[brooklynwx99]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This goes along with my line of thought that this is ultimately going to be more of a basin wide deal, than an extreme east based event.....which is going to keep the east coast in the game for a very sizeable snow event, regardless of whether the ensuing winter is an inferno in the aggregate. I don't see how you prevent episodes in which the forcing sneaks west with that much warm water out there.

I still don't think this el nino will break an ONI of 2.0, but if it were to, we are probably looking at more of a 2016 outcome vs 1998.

looking at 1997, for example, and 2016, there is a complete discrepancy between where each year's forcing was... 1997 had forcing well east, which led to a huge low in the GoA and an all-time awful winter. 2016, however, had its forcing a tick east of the dateline, which explains the HECS later in the year. it was no coincidence, as Jan 2016 featured significant west-based blocking, and the storm occurred when the blocking decayed

looking at the CFS, which does have a basin-wide super Nino ala 2016, it also has very similar forcing to 2016. it's centered near the dateline with weaker rising motion over the S US. if anything, it's a touch farther W:

so, even if this does become a super Nino, which I'm still highly skeptical of, it would provide chances for episodes of blocking and even a MECS or better similar to 2016. the forcing would likely be in a favorable location even if the Nino itself is a bit too strong. if the Nino is more moderate to strong rather than strong to super, it's really encouraging with the forcing in that location... the CanSIPS has similar forcing with a strong Nino and it's very nice looking

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Finally seeing a bit of a trade surge near the dateline, albeit weaker and later than originally forecast a couple weeks ago and paired with (initally) westerly anomalies and outright westerlies north of the equator from 140W on east. That's likely the reason 3.4 has shot up quickly. Should see some flattening off of that trend once the trades pop back up in the next several days. However, this trade surge looks rather limited in duration. Perhaps 2 weeks tops. EPS is more like 7-10 days.

It looks both way briefer and much weaker in intensity than what was being forecasted last week at this time. Then it looks like westerlies take over again thereafter and the next round of warming should start. Also, looks like a rather healthy downwelling Kelvin wave is going to take shape later on this month and that should boost the subsurface anomalies especially under regions 3 and 1+2

[brooklynwx99]

I'm also kind of sick of people saying that 2016 was a fluke. the pattern was loaded for the 20 days before the blizzard occurred with significant west-based blocking, a juiced STJ, and confluence over the northern Atlantic. the GoA low led to a transient +PNA and the rest is history

this pattern was likely due to the strong forcing moving west towards the dateline. no way it was just a coincidence with a Nino that strong driving the bus

[griteater]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have completed my El Nino composites by both intensity and orientation....those will be out in a blog post within the week.

I have determined intensity by mainly ONI, but not 100%....there is some consideration given to both time of peak and MEI....for instance, I consider 1987-1988 to be moderate for winter, even though it peaked as strong late in the summer. I also consider 2009-2010 as moderate, despite a 1.6 ONI peak narrowly qualifying it as strong. due to the weaker MEI (moderate)...I think this better reflects the forcing, as well.....because as you will see, weak of largely synonymous with modiko and east based strong. This makes sense, intuitively, since the stronger WWB needed to achieve a high ONI are not likely to allow the eastern regions to cool much.

Yep, strength is more important than base IMO, though both factor in.  If weak, conus outcome is variable.  If super, go with conus warmth.  If mod or strong, base plays a larger role with west-based offering more wintry potential of course.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm also kind of sick of people saying that 2016 was a fluke. the pattern was loaded for the 20 days before the blizzard occurred with significant west-based blocking, a juiced STJ, and confluence over the northern Atlantic. the GoA low led to a transient +PNA and the rest is history

this pattern was likely due to the strong forcing moving west towards the dateline. no way it was just a coincidence with a Nino that strong driving the bus

It wasn't a fluke...that is what I was saying to snowman. Combine one of the most potent STJs imaginable with a period of dateline forcing and I'd be surprised if that did not happen....individual BYs not withstanding.

[roardog]

I still think the -PDO is interesting. I don't think that's flipping positive anytime soon. We see hints of -PDO even on the models that have the strong/super Nino. December '72 looked nothing like a Nino across the country. Was it due to the -PDO? Even if we were to manage to achieve a very strong Nino like '97 or '15, I think there's a good chance the PDO will be very different than those two years. So, a -PDO combined with possibly more west based forcing would at least keeps things interesting I think. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yep, strength is more important than base IMO, though both factor in.  If weak, conus outcome is variable.  If super, go with conus warmth.  If mod or strong, base plays a larger role with west-based offering more wintry potential of course.

See, I actually think orientation/base is more important, but its a chicken/egg argument. The forcing to a large degree governs strength, not vice versa. It's no coincidence ONI is negatively correlated with Modoki value. The huge WWBs that foster the development of intense events keep the eastern regions warm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looking at 1997, for example, and 2016, there is a complete discrepancy between where each year's forcing was... 1997 had forcing well east, which led to a huge low in the GoA and an all-time awful winter. 2016, however, had its forcing a tick east of the dateline, which explains the HECS later in the year. it was no coincidence, as Jan 2016 featured significant west-based blocking, and the storm occurred when the blocking decayed

looking at the CFS, which does have a basin-wide super Nino ala 2016, it also has very similar forcing to 2016. it's centered near the dateline with weaker rising motion over the S US. if anything, it's a touch farther W:

so, even if this does become a super Nino, which I'm still highly skeptical of, it would provide chances for episodes of blocking and even a MECS or better similar to 2016. the forcing would likely be in a favorable location even if the Nino itself is a bit too strong. if the Nino is more moderate to strong rather than strong to super, it's really encouraging with the forcing in that location... the CanSIPS has similar forcing with a strong Nino and it's very nice looking

The mistake I made in 2016 was focusing on the location of the forcing, which I got correct, but failed to realize that an ONI that high is going to overwhelm with warmth, regardless.

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yep, strength is more important than base IMO, though both factor in.  If weak, conus outcome is variable.  If super, go with conus warmth.  If mod or strong, base plays a larger role with west-based offering more wintry potential of course.

 

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

See, I actually think orientation/base is more important, but its a chicken/egg argument. The forcing to a large degree governs strength, not vice versa. It's no coincidence ONI is negatively correlated with Modoki value. The huge WWBs that foster the development of intense events keep the eastern regions warm.

 

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The mistake I made in 2016 was focusing on the location of the forcing, which I got correct, but failed to realize that an ONI that high is going to overwhelm with warmth, regardless.

@griteaterThinking about it within context of 2015-2016, I think the answer maybe that intensity can be the main factor in extreme cases, but for the most part its orientation. Seems like orientation is less important in very weak and very extreme ENSO events.....the former it is other extratropical factors and the latter its the sheer magnitude of ENSO taking proxy.

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The mistake I made in 2016 was focusing on the location of the forcing, which I got correct, but failed to realize that an ONI that high is going to overwhelm with warmth, regardless.

if we get a 1.0-1.7C Nino, I think we're honestly off to the races. just a matter of if it becomes high-end strong to super... becomes very tough to get persistent cold at that point. snow, as you know, doesn't really correlate

very skeptical of the super Nino stuff. this year just hasn't held a candle to the WWBs of 2016, 1997 and 1982. sure, sample size is low, but still. not even close

i'm still on the 0.8-1.7C basin wide train. seems like the most likely outcome as of right now

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

if we get a 1.0-1.7C Nino, I think we're honestly off to the races. just a matter of if it becomes high-end strong to super... becomes very tough to get persistent cold at that point. snow, as you know, doesn't really correlate

very skeptical of the super Nino stuff. this year just hasn't held a candle to the WWBs of 2016, 1997 and 1982

Not in the MID atl, anyway because their season is often defined by one event. I would bet below normal snowfall north of NYC with an ONI of 2+....south of there you can't rule out a one storm season, especially if its basin wide, as opposed to east.

[GaWx]

 The June 6th rapidly warming NOAA Coral Reef Watch based SSTa for Nino 3.4 is way up at +1.057 and is much warmer than the also rapidly warming CDAS, which has been in the +0.80-+0.85 range today through 12Z (see comparison of graphs below).

 Looking back to March 14th, I can't find even one day for which CDAS was warmer than Coral Reef. There are a few days that are ~same. Otherwise, Coral Reef is mainly 0.05 to 0.25 warmer than CDAS with the current ~0.20-0.25 difference being near the maximum since March 14th.

Coral Reef Watch SSTa:

CDAS based:

A discussion of various SSTa datasets:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outreach/CDPW/46/sessions/presentations/session6_oral4.pdf

[raindancewx]

This is how I see the strength of this event playing out. The Euro has some skill at this range for winter, but the result is almost always at the edge of what it forecasts.

[bluewave]

The EPAC subsurface spreading west plus the new kelvin wave puts +2C in Nino 3.4 within reach. Never saw this happen before with WWBs in the EPAC and WPAC with little near the Dateline. The quick Nino 3.4 rise to near + 1C is matching some of the more aggressive model forecasts. Could result in our first 1.5C global temperature departure coming earlier than projected.
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtm

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

This is how I see the strength of this event playing out. The Euro has some skill at this range for winter, but the result is almost always at the edge of what it forecasts.

Yea, I think a peak ONI between 1.4 and 1.8 is reasonable attm.