El Nino 2023-2024

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This -1 area is keeping us away from next level (Strong) El Nino. 

https://ibb.co/FmySPLG

Edit: with the way the Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up, those correlations are rigid, I wouldn't be surprised to see the central-subsurface cold pool keep/expand through the season. 

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

1. Looking at the CFSv2 ensemble mean, it has April and May pretty close to the average of OISSTv2.1 and ERSSTv5. So, it is initialized pretty well and did well with May.

2. It has June close to +1.0. With June CDAS starting off near +0.7, this would require CDAS to reach ~+1.0 at midmonth and end at ~+1.3 per a smooth slope assumption to get +1.0 for the month. But keep in mind that CDAS has averaged ~0.1 cooler than OISST/ERSST per the analysis I just did. So, OISST/ERSST could already be up to ~+0.8. If so, the +1.0 for the June CFS would seem reachable (start at +0.8 and end at +1.2) unlike the +1.3 of the last BoM release (May 20th).

3. The CFS has July at +1.5. If July were to start at +1.2, it would probably have to end at ~+1.7 to +1.8. That would be a challenge but that's a good ways out. So, we'll see.

4. It has August at +1.75. If July gets to +1.5, that would be very doable. 

5. It has ASO +1.95-2.00. That's much more reasonable than that last BoM's +2.5 but still more than likely too high imho.

[GaWx]

44 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This -1 area is keeping us away from next level (Strong) El Nino. 

https://ibb.co/FmySPLG 

 That sub -1 area is centered in the middle of the monthly 100-180 W OHC that I track down to 300 meters. Despite that, the May OHC anomaly was still up at +1.08. That shows how warm the rest of that layer is.

[GaWx]

 The brand new BoM (6/3/23 run) has just been released and was initialized well with May. June cooled slightly from +1.3 in the prior run to +1.2. I feel that this is still too warm. Despite June's slight cooling, July remained at +1.7 and August-November all warmed 0.2 to +2.4, +2.6, +2.7, and +2.9, respectively! ASO surprisingly warmed from +2.4 to +2.6, which would be the warmest on record for ASO beating the +2.2 set both in 2015 and 1877! SON at +2.7 would also be a new record.

 Although the May BoM has had no net bias in predicting ASO the last 10 years averaged out, 3 of those 10 did miss 0.6 too warm (2022, 2017, and 2014). I continue to see little chance of it getting even close to being as warm as it has. The May Euro is only at +1.94 for SON vs the BoM's +2.7 and the May Euro hasn't been too cold for ASO since way back in 2004!

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/index.shtml#tabs=Graphs&region=NINO34

[thunderbolt]

14 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

As 3/4 goes up 1/2 comes down.

[GaWx]

 Per this morning's CPC weekly release, all four Nino regions' anomalies warmed 0.2-0.4 in the OISST based weeklies covering last week's significant warming centered on May 31st (keep in mind these are based on the prior calendar week and are rounded to the nearest 0.1):

Nino 1+2: warmed 0.3 to +2.3

Nino 3: warmed 0.3 to +1.1

Nino 3.4: warmed 0.4 to +0.8

Nino 4: warmed 0.2 to +0.6

 In Nino 3.4 for the average for the same period (last calendar week) in comparison, CDAS per Cowan's graph of dailies was only +0.57. As just mentioned, OISST for last week was +0.8, implying between +0.75 and +0.85 since it was rounded. So, OISST was at least 0.18 warmer than CDAS last week. It had averaged warmer by 0.13 for Mar-May overall per my earlier post.

 The 0Z 6/5/23 CDAS is still rising steadily and is up to +0.73. That means that the current OISST could be +0.9 and that the CFS' +1.0 for June is quite believable. The new BoM's +1.2 will still be tough to reach but we will see.

OISST based weeklies: 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for
 

CDAS for Nino 3.4 per Tropical Tidbits:

 

 

[chubbs]

Another WWB induced Kelvin wave moving east and building in the west/central Pacific subsurface over the past two weeks. Sign of ongoing transition to el nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 6/3/2023 at 8:45 PM, raindancewx said:

CPC has 28.33C for May 2023 now. (I did adjust the early 2023 numbers to match CPC's edits - they constantly tinker with the data).

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

I have no idea if the winter will look like 1972-73. But I'm increasingly on-board with that year as a good estimate for how warm Nino 3.4 gets. I can see a month or two around 28.5C in the Fall, but only 28.0C or so in the actual winter.

Nino 3.4 on the weeklies already looks like it may have peaked at 28.4C. Following the foot steps of June 1972 (28.18C) is doable.

I've been pleased with the Summer so far locally. No 90s yet. None coming either in the near term. Outside chance we reach 6/10 or later without reaching 90 here - hasn't been done in decades (1999). Follows a cold season with 111 lows that were freezing or colder. I'm very curious to see how the transitional seasons go this coming cold season. My current guess is another wild Fall. 

What do the following winters tend to look like when your area takes so long to hit 90? I am guessing its a mild signal in the NE.....

[snowman19]

 Per this morning's CPC weekly release, all four Nino regions' anomalies warmed 0.2-0.4 in the OISST based weeklies covering last week's significant warming centered on May 31st (keep in mind these are based on the prior calendar week and are rounded to the nearest 0.1):
Nino 1+2: warmed 0.3 to +2.3
Nino 3: warmed 0.3 to +1.1
Nino 3.4: warmed 0.4 to +0.8
Nino 4: warmed 0.2 to +0.6
 In Nino 3.4 for the average for the same period (last calendar week) in comparison, CDAS per Cowan's graph of dailies was only +0.57. As just mentioned, OISST for last week was +0.8, implying between +0.75 and +0.85 since it was rounded. So, OISST was at least 0.18 warmer than CDAS last week. It had averaged warmer by 0.13 for Mar-May overall per my earlier post.
 The 0Z 6/5/23 CDAS is still rising steadily and is up to +0.73. That means that the current OISST could be +0.9 and that the CFS' +1.0 for June is quite believable. The new BoM's +1.2 will still be tough to reach but we will see.
OISST based weeklies: 
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for
 
CDAS for Nino 3.4 per Tropical Tidbits:

 
 

The subsurface below regions 3 and 1+2 is blazing and is going to warm even more with the new downwelling Kelvin wave. Warmest SSTs there too, so still a very east-based event. The POAMA is sticking to its guns, while it may be overdone some, what it’s showing is definitely possible and the CFS forecast is easily attainable

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Per this morning's CPC weekly release, all four Nino regions' anomalies warmed 0.2-0.4 in the OISST based weeklies covering last week's significant warming centered on May 31st (keep in mind these are based on the prior calendar week and are rounded to the nearest 0.1):

Nino 1+2: warmed 0.3 to +2.3

Nino 3: warmed 0.3 to +1.1

Nino 3.4: warmed 0.4 to +0.8

Nino 4: warmed 0.2 to +0.6

 In Nino 3.4 for the average for the same period (last calendar week) in comparison, CDAS per Cowan's graph of dailies was only +0.57. As just mentioned, OISST for last week was +0.8, implying between +0.75 and +0.85 since it was rounded. So, OISST was at least 0.18 warmer than CDAS last week. It had averaged warmer by 0.13 for Mar-May overall per my earlier post.

 The 0Z 6/5/23 CDAS is still rising steadily and is up to +0.73. That means that the current OISST could be +0.9 and that the CFS' +1.0 for June is quite believable. The new BoM's +1.2 will still be tough to reach but we will see.

OISST based weeklies: 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for
 

CDAS for Nino 3.4 per Tropical Tidbits:

 

 

Reaching +0.7 to 0.8 in 3.4 this time of year is when we get some conformation that we could have a stronger event. Just emerging from the spring forecast barrier period. This is the first time since 1950 with this much warming with weaker WWBs in the Central Pacific. So a much different evolution this year than in the past. Longer range models hinting at split forcing between the WPAC and EPAC as the El Niño continues to develop. 
 

Spring 2023 much weaker WWBs in Central Pacific vs previous years near or over +1.0 in Nino 3.4 during June. 

[snowman19]

Reaching +0.7 to 0.8 in 3.4 this time of year is when we get some conformation that we could have a stronger event. Just emerging from the spring forecast barrier period. This is the first time since 1950 with this much warming with weaker WWBs in the Central Pacific. So a much different evolution this year than in the past. Longer range models hinting at split forcing between the WPAC and EPAC as the El Niño continues to develop. 
 


Spring 2023 much weaker WWBs in Central Pacific vs previous years near or over +1.0 in Nino 3.4 during June. 

I guess the talk of this event developing in the Eastern Pacific then expanding west like the pre-1980 El Niños has some good merit

[snowman19]

New Euro seasonal showing a very strong El Niño developing

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I guess the talk of this event developing in the Eastern Pacific then expanding west like the pre-1980 El Niños has some good merit

Those El Niños evolved from strong CP WWBs driving the kelvin waves into the EP. This one is developing from EPAC and WPAC WWBs. So the effect at the surface is similar with 1.2 warming first and expanding westward. 

[griteater]

SST anomaly changes over the last 2 months (06/03/23 minus 04/03/23)

[snowman19]

The ECMWF is getting as aggressive as the POAMA with the El Niño now. A high-end strong event is becoming increasingly likely come fall IMO

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The ECMWF is getting as aggressive as the POAMA with the El Niño now. A high-end strong event is becoming increasingly likely come fall IMO

 I also think that a high end strong in autumn is increasing in probability vs how it looked a couple of weeks ago, when I thought it was decreasing. With the Euro's 6/1/23 run holding onto a similar SON to the prior run's +1.94 instead of cooling off, that supports an increased chance in my mind. But keep in mind that it remains well below the +2.7 of the BoM's SON, which I continue to feel is too high.

[snowman19]

 I also think that a high end strong in autumn is increasing in probability vs how it looked a couple of weeks ago, when I thought it was decreasing. With the Euro's 6/1/23 run holding onto a similar SON to the prior run's +1.94 instead of cooling off, that supports an increased chance in my mind. But keep in mind that it remains well below the +2.7 of the BoM's SON, which I continue to feel is too high.

While I too think +2.7C is most likely overdone, I can see a peak of something in the neighborhood of +1.9C - +2.3C in late fall. This one is starting to look like it’s going to be the real deal

[bluewave]

While the Euro forcing will be out soon, the meteo France forecast maintains more of a westward lean to the forcing even with 1+2 and 3 so warm. Probably related to the lingering WPAC warm pool and warmer waters spreading west into Nino 4. Plus it takes the WWBs longer in the forecast to get east of the Dateline. I believe this would be a first. Maintains the unusual WPAC and EPAC WWB pattern for a while longer. If this forecast verifies, the continuing odd WWB pattern will probably have papers written about it. Especially if some of these model forecasts pushing +2C in Nino 3.4 work out. All the other events of this magnitude had strong WWBs near the Dateline from the spring onward. This one is the strongest on record so far in June with a split WWB pattern in the WPAC and EPAC. 
 

http://seasonal.meteo.fr/content/PS-previ-cartes?language=en

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the Euro forcing will be out soon, the meteo France forecast maintains more of a westward lean to the forcing even with 1+2 and 3 so warm. Probably related to the lingering WPAC warm pool and warmer waters spreading west into Nino 4. Plus it takes the WWBs longer in the forecast to get east of the Dateline. I believe this would be a first. Maintains the unusual WPAC and EPAC WWB pattern for a while longer. If this forecast verifies, the continuing odd WWB pattern will probably have papers written about it. Especially if some of these model forecasts pushing +2C in Nino 3.4 work out. All the other events of this magnitude had strong WWBs near the Dateline from the spring onward. This one is the strongest on record so far in June with a split WWB pattern in the WPAC and EPAC. 
 

http://seasonal.meteo.fr/content/PS-previ-cartes?language=en

 

 

looks similar to the CanSIPS. nice to see the forcing centered near the Dateline rather than closer to the SA coast

[Typhoon Tip]

43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looks similar to the CanSIPS. nice to see the forcing centered near the Dateline rather than closer to the SA coast

This MJO appears more coherent as it readies a move into the Phase 3-6 modes.  That may have a bearing on westerly wind contamination in the lower latitudes... Back west of the "MDR" but with the La Nina dead/dying it would seem to green like the propagation into the 7-8-2 thereafter, doing so more successfully than the La Nina "firewall" was allowing it to do over previous months.   That's your westerly wind burst perhaps... I dunno end of June?

[roardog]

It looks like the MJO is going to be moving strongly through the Maritime Continent phases. Is that unusual for a developing El Niño?

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, roardog said:

It looks like the MJO is going to be moving strongly through the Maritime Continent phases. Is that unusual for a developing El Niño?

Yeah ... I mean that should be factored.

[George001]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

While I too think +2.7C is most likely overdone, I can see a peak of something in the neighborhood of +1.9C - +2.3C in late fall. This one is starting to look like it’s going to be the real deal

Super nino becoming more likely?

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, roardog said:

It looks like the MJO is going to be moving strongly through the Maritime Continent phases. Is that unusual for a developing El Niño?

In the old days before the expansion of the WPAC warm pool.

 

https://phys.org/news/2021-04-distinctive-mjo-super-el-nino.html

 

A research group, led by Dr. Wenjun Zhang from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology analyzed MJO activity of the super El Niño event during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015/16. Observations show that the western Pacific MJO activity was strongly suppressed during the peak phase of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 super El Niño events. However, during the crest of the 2015/16 super El Niño event, western Pacific MJO-related convection was enhanced.

"It is apparent that the enhanced western Pacific MJO is mainly related to its sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly distribution and the associated background thermodynamic conditions." said Dr. Zhang. His team's complete research and data are published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

When compared to the previous super El Niño events, the warm SST anomaly, or change from average, of the 2015/16 El Niño was located more westward than during the other two extreme seasons. Additionally, no significant cold SST anomaly was detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the moisture and air temperature tended to increase in the central-western Pacific during the winter of 2015/16 unlike the previous super El Niño events.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

It looks like the MJO is going to be moving strongly through the Maritime Continent phases. Is that unusual for a developing El Niño?

 We'll see if it does. I'm educatedly guessing based on model biases and the very warm MC that it will. The GEFS/EPS do have a moderate move through 4/5. Some of the others don't even get it there outside of the circle as of now.

 Newly developing Nino events in 1986 (June), 1997 (May), 2002 (May and again in June), and 2004 (May) all had moderate or stronger moves through both phases 4 and 5 during May and/or June. 

 Looking later: 1976 (Aug/Sep), 1979 (Sep/Oct), 2002 (Aug), and 2009 (Sep) had similar.

 That means that 7 of the 13 new El Niño events during the period covered by MJO historical data had a moderate or strong move through both 4 and 5 at some point(s) between May and Oct.

 So, there'd be nothing unusual if 2023 were to have a moderate or strong move through both 4 and 5 this month.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

[raindancewx]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What do the following winters tend to look like when your area takes so long to hit 90? I am guessing its a mild signal in the NE.....

The 90 degree timing doesn't matter for anything locally in El Nino. In La Nina it's the opposite of what you think. Late heat onset is tied to warmer winters in the Southwest. Early heat onset is tied to colder winters. We hit 90F May 7th in both 2020-21 and 2022-23. Both years saw pretty intense and severe cold patterns at times in the West, with similar behavior in other early onset years for the heat. Intense early heat for the West almost always ties into the MJO being strong in the right phases for the West in winter.

Right now we have:

+El Nino following La Nina

+Volcanic effects that are opposite normal (extra water vapor/heating)

+High solar

That's it. High solar with El Nino is a very reliable signal for heavy snow in the Southwest. El Nino after La Nina tends to be cold/wet or both int he Southwest. Volcanic years tend to be very cold with unusually intense storms nationally in the Fall/Spring.

I will say this - Canada and Russia have been very hot at times in recent weeks. I doubt the Summer heat will be interrupted by nice early cold shots from the North if that continues.

38C (100F+) in Siberia at 52N when we can't buy a 90F day in the high desert at 35N is pretty impressive. There is a part of me that thinks of a lot of the high-terrain of Northern Mexico and then the SW US will eventually get expanded into "subtropical highland" climate ala Mexico City as things continue to warm - but we'll see. 

 

[Terpeast]

As far as solar goes, I don’t think our current cycle is that high. We’ve seen much higher before. Don’t think I would give it much weight unless solar activity doubles from where it is now, which I doubt will happen. 

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

As far as solar goes, I don’t think our current cycle is that high. We’ve seen much higher before. Don’t think I would give it much weight unless solar activity doubles from where it is now, which I doubt will happen. 

But it (25) has so far been strongly over-performing per this and peak is likely still a ways out. Regardless, I no longer feel that there's much of a chance that individual solar cycle variations have much influence on our climate.

[raindancewx]

Solar above 55 sunspots annualized from July-June in Albuquerque and a lot of the high terrain in the West has statistically significantly differences in snowfall tendencies in March. Here, we're 1/36 for March snow over 3 inches in low solar years since March 1932. We're 16/56 I believe in high solar March for over 3 inches of snow. It's literally 10:1 frequency. I always test solar stuff with hypothesis testing, assuming no difference. But 10:1 passes at highly statistically significant levels using a difference in proportions test - but it only works in March.

One of the things about ENSO that is lost is why it does what it does. The deserts of the world are models of strong highs and consistent weather. But dry places that are high up are unbalanced. You can see locally we're far more likely to see extreme temperatures on the cold side of average than the hot side of average at all times of year. El Nino is much more likely to do that for highs via clouds, rain and snow. But enough snow in the winter does the job here too. It gets very cold here when snow sticks around for a few days when the dew points crater back down.

These are literally counts of days that are 5 to 25 below average, and 5 to 25 above average in 1991-2020 in Albuquerque, against 1991-2020 averages by month. You can see we are almost never 15F above average for highs or lows.

[GaWx]

 Wow, the CDAS Nino 3.4 is zooming. It is up a whopping 0.037 over just the last 12 hours to +0.779! It has warmed 0.45 within the last 10 days. This implies that the average of the OISST and ERSST is probably currently up to near +0.9. If this keeps up, those two could be up near +1.0 within 2 days. I'm now starting to wonder if the BoM 3.4 is going to somehow get its +1.2 for June after all. Still not expecting it but I'm no longer dismissing it as extremely unlikely.

 Meanwhile, the SOI has finally risen almost to 0 just after a week that averaged -18. The 30 day has dropped to -20 and the 90 day has fallen to -7.5, indicative of El Niño.