El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

Per Don Sutherland 

"Summer has barely begun and Joe Bastardi is forecasting a cold and snowy Winter 2023-2024. His key assumption is that the evolving El Niño event will be a Modoki El Niño."

 

@BigJoeBastardi • 5h Weatherbell using modoki enso analogs of 57-58,65-66,02-03,09-10 fir winter 23-24 colder snowier than ave implications in south/east oppsite
last winter europe also
El Niño
10... aces.
El Niño Modoki
Kos.

@snowman19 and for that matter just about everybody wrote the script!

Edit: not that it can't be a cold SE/E winter, of course, especially if it is a Modoki, but that's beside the point.

[raindancewx]

1994 is actually the top matching May for developing El Nino in the past 100 years or so. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

94-95 was a strongly +NAO Winter, I'm getting some good -NAO analogs for the Winter. Dec big time +PNA is hitting too. 

[GaWx]

 This is the first time I checked out the CFSv2 weeklies for implied SOI predictions based on Darwin/Tahiti SLP progs. I have no idea how well it can predict these SLPs or if there are any significant biases.
 So, fwiw, here's the mean prediction of the last 48 runs of CFSv2 weeklies:

6/2-9: +5

6/9-16: -12

6/16-23: -16

6/23-30: -9

6/30-7/7: -8

7/7-14: -11

 These would produce a complete June SOI of ~-9 and a first two weeks of July SOI of ~-9.5.

[snowman19]

1994 is actually the top matching May for developing El Nino in the past 100 years or so. 

[snowman19]

The strong forcing west of the Dateline drove the record ridging in May over Canada. So the WPAC warm pool is having more influence currently than the El Niño. It will be interesting to see how long the WPAC can dominate the EPAC for forcing. The actual SSTs west of Dateline are much warmer than Nino 1+2 and 3. The ridge over Canada far exceeded anything experienced in May.
 

After 3 years in a row of La Niña, I would expect a decent atmospheric lag before a classic canonical El Niño/Bjerknes feedback forced pattern gets established. I don’t think we should expect a flip of a coin, instant change

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

 Low OLR is correlated with enhanced convection. The OLR anomaly centered on the Dateline at the equator is negatively correlated with El Niño and they tend to be lowest during fall/winter. I consider a multimonth period of sub -10 to be a pretty good indicator of El Nino. Sub -30 OLRs months are strong indicators of El Niño.
 
 I'll be following the OLR to see how fast it drops, especially as we reach late summer and more so in fall. The stronger El Niño events tend to have good drops starting by summer.

 The most recent OLRa in the table is the +10 of April. But that's still a big drop from the +20+ of the prior 5 months and is the lowest in 2 years. The April drop is the 2nd largest for incoming El Niños since 1976-7.
 

 How does April of 2023 compare to other Aprils of incoming El Niño years from lowest to highest?

1997: -18

2014: -15

2004: -13

1994: -5

1991: 0

1982: 0

2002: +4

2006: +5

1979: +5

1986: +7

2023: +10

1976: +10

2009: +11

2018: +19

 

 So, 2023 is exceeded only by 1976, 2009 and 2018. However, keep in mind that 2023, 1976, 2009, and 2018 were 4 of the 5 cases which immediately followed La Niña. The only other was 2006, which had a +5 (8th highest). And though 1986's +7 didn't immediately follow La Niña, 1985-6 barely missed La Niña. So, lag is likely having an influence.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/olr

 

[George001]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

After 3 years in a row of La Niña, I would expect a decent atmospheric lag before a classic canonical El Niño/Bjerknes feedback forced pattern gets established. I don’t think we should expect a flip of a coin, instant change

Makes sense. The nino has really taken off the past couple weeks (its progression is more in line with the aggressive dynamical models than the conservative statistical models). It’s now above +.6 in all 4 enso regions, it won’t happen right away but the important thing is that it’s a matter of when, not if. 

[GaWx]

 After probably a slightly +SOI to neutral period averaged out over the next week, the EPS, GEFS, and CFS are all hinting at the next significant -SOI period in mid June. Meanwhile, the last 5 days have averaged -20.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 6/2/2023 at 11:38 AM, snowman19 said:

2002 was a textbook Modoki, nothing at all like how this event is developing, not even close, in fact the El Ninos since 1980 have not developed like this, as Paul Roundy pointed out multiple times. The only one right now saying 02-03 is an “analog” is Joe Bastardi, who is wishcasting, as usual. He’s also using 57-58, 65-66, 09-10 and 76-77. No surprise coming from that utter hack

Feel free to bump this is in 5 months, but I feel its every bit as silly to imply that some of the strongest ENSO events ever observed are viable analogs at this early juncture. In fact, I think that is worse than being open minded about the ultimate DM orientation in early June.

And I get what Paul Roundy's stance is ....you've made that abundantly clear; understood. But last I checked, Paul has bowled movements and bad days like the rest of us, so I would suggest endeavoring to engage in independent thought at some point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, raindancewx said:

1994 is actually the top matching May for developing El Nino in the past 100 years or so. 

I feel like an event like 1994-1995 is much more reasonable than this super el Nino talk...and BTW (I'm sure you know this), that season was abysmal for cold and snow in the east, so my resistance to the super nova el nino idea has nothing to do with winter.

[snowman19]

Feel free to bump this is in 5 months, but I feel its every bit as silly to imply that some of the strongest ENSO events ever observed are viable analogs at this early juncture. In fact, I think that is worse than being open minded about the ultimate DM orientation in early June.
And I get what Paul Roundy's stance is ....you've made that abundantly clear; understood. But last I checked, Paul has bowled movements and bad days like the rest of us, so I would suggest endeavoring to engage in independent thought at some point.

I never said super was guaranteed, not once. I do however feel that strong/high-end strong is a very good possibly and I still do. Joe Bastardi has less than zero credibility. None. Literally every single time there’s an El Niño he says it’s going to become a Modoki and uses 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs. Wash, rinse, repeat. Even back in 2015, he used 57-58, 65-66, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs (even mentioned 76-77 as a possible analog at one point that fall) and said it was going to be a “west-based” super El Niño, whatever the hell that means, after months of denying that it was even going to become super and saying it was falling apart because it didn’t fit his cold and snowy winter on the east coast narrative. He looked like a total fool that winter, as per usual for him

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I never said super was guaranteed, not once. I do however feel that strong/high-end strong is a very good possibly and I still do. Joe Bastardi has less than zero credibility. None. Literally every single time there’s an El Niño he says it’s going to become a Modoki and uses 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs. Wash, rinse, repeat. Even back in 2015, he used 57-58, 65-66, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs (even mentioned 76-77 as a possible analog at one point that fall) and said it was going to be a “west-based” super El Niño, whatever the hell that means, after months of denying that it was even going to become super and saying it was falling apart because it didn’t fit his cold and snowy winter on the east coast narrative. He looked like a total fool that winter, as per usual for him

Yea, he is unfortunately an example of a good meteorologist that has become consumed by the lust for clicks in this social media driven world.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

As Nino 4 continues to warm, models pull the forcing closer to the Dateline this month.

As someone who lives in a place where the tropics are (almost) as likely to affect my sensible weather as winter precip, the mid-June chi forecast seems a sign of a very Nino influenced MDR season.  The Atlantic SST anomalies are probably not going to be the main driver.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Warmest SSTs on record in May for the Western Pacific and Eastern Atlantic.

 

 

Not entirely sure what the boreal summer AMO correlation is to pattern tendencies... In the winter, theAtlantic tripole is correlated pretty brightly to the -NAO bias.    That layout up there is pretty clearly in dipole, and is actually correlated to the +NAO, which is the warm phase ( obviously...).

With the wave lengths shorted/ R-wave order a bit less coherent in summer, not sure if either (-) or (+) phase biases in the NAO have the same correlation to eastern N/A escape latitude of the westerly main axis.  

That all said ... I tend to lean in favor of significant heat ( above the back ground climate signal) this summer east of 100W

Most folks in here care more so how this shit correlates to winter...understood.  Aging this summer into autumn through a +NAO bias is interesting if/when a warm ENSO erupts. 

For one thing, +NAO is correlated well with recurving hurricanes (Lance Bozart et al.), which warm ENSO ... don't exactly deny the hurricane season on the Atlantic side but it doesn't correlate very well.  There's also a QBO consideration there that's important not to miss. 

Anyway, it seems the polar index year might be positive as it gets involved into the cold season. The space weather factor, good ole sol, is ultra-violet hot. That and the QBO, they are out of phase with -AO... ( the causal link is the W phase of the QBO vs E modulates the spatial orientation of the AO domain space ..geometrically enhancing(reducing) the mode.) 

Wait..check that with the QBO - we might be heading toward a phase reversal?

It would not be a treat for many over eastern N/A mid latitudes if we end up with a +AO winter whilst a STJ starts pushing tulip shoots 10 minutes ( sarcasm) after the winter solstice. 

The other aspect I'm playing with ( for good reason) is that the El Nino's physical forcing on the mid latitude R-wave distribution is different now due to climate change - it is best perceived - hence why increased spans of time of apparent resonance disconnect/decoupling wrt to R-wave. In some respects, we have to leave more room open to the possibility of winters just simply not behaving like the climate/statistical history inferences argue it should - those historic climates did not have climate and change happening when they occurred, so the correlations can't be the same. That's just rudimentary logic -

[raindancewx]

On 5/3/2023 at 6:57 PM, raindancewx said:

I didn't run the absolute value calculation each year.
But I suspect these are the closest Nino 3.4 transitions since 1950 for Jan-Apr
to observations in 2023.

 1957  26.04  26.54  27.46  28.23  28.55  28.36  28.17  27.69  27.44  27.42  27.62  27.90
 1963  25.77  26.22  27.18  27.78  27.63  27.62  27.78  27.48  27.40  27.36  27.47  27.62
 1972  25.62  26.30  27.09  27.89  28.32  28.18  28.14  27.95  27.95  28.26  28.61  28.69
 1997  26.01  26.38  27.04  27.98  28.58  28.82  28.86  28.75  28.85  29.08  29.12  28.89
 2014  26.05  26.14  27.00  27.90  28.25  27.96  27.23  26.82  27.01  27.16  27.46  27.31
 Blend 25.90  26.32  27.15  27.96  28.27
 2023  25.83  26.30  27.19  27.96  28.33 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99

 

CPC has 28.33C for May 2023 now. (I did adjust the early 2023 numbers to match CPC's edits - they constantly tinker with the data).

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

I have no idea if the winter will look like 1972-73. But I'm increasingly on-board with that year as a good estimate for how warm Nino 3.4 gets. I can see a month or two around 28.5C in the Fall, but only 28.0C or so in the actual winter.

Nino 3.4 on the weeklies already looks like it may have peaked at 28.4C. Following the foot steps of June 1972 (28.18C) is doable.

I've been pleased with the Summer so far locally. No 90s yet. None coming either in the near term. Outside chance we reach 6/10 or later without reaching 90 here - hasn't been done in decades (1999). Follows a cold season with 111 lows that were freezing or colder. I'm very curious to see how the transitional seasons go this coming cold season. My current guess is another wild Fall. 

[George001]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I never said super was guaranteed, not once. I do however feel that strong/high-end strong is a very good possibly and I still do. Joe Bastardi has less than zero credibility. None. Literally every single time there’s an El Niño he says it’s going to become a Modoki and uses 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs. Wash, rinse, repeat. Even back in 2015, he used 57-58, 65-66, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs (even mentioned 76-77 as a possible analog at one point that fall) and said it was going to be a “west-based” super El Niño, whatever the hell that means, after months of denying that it was even going to become super and saying it was falling apart because it didn’t fit his cold and snowy winter on the east coast narrative. He looked like a total fool that winter, as per usual for him

Yep and when it’s a La Niña his top 2 analogs are always 1995-1996 and 2010-2011. There are several issues with his forecasts that lead to an extreme cold and snowy bias. One of those issues is that he incorporates a bunch of old analogs, and fails to take into account the fact that the earth is much warmer than it used to be. Another issue is he makes false assumptions about ENSO, assuming ninos are going to be modoki when they aren’t, Ninas will be east based, etc. It is ridiculous to assume that the El Niño will be a modoki this early, technically we are still in enso neutral (will change soon though). He should at least wait and see how El Nino develops and progresses throughout the summer and fall before making definitive statements about whether it will be east based, modoki, basin wide etc. Last winter the La Niña was basin wide up until late December, then it shifted west and became a modoki. We had an unfavorable shift in the enso orientation in JANUARY that ended winter before it started, yet this clown is assuming the nino will be a modoki in June. It is simply way too early. 

[GaWx]

 Per the Cowan CDAS charts: Thanks to Nino 4 and despite Nino 3 having leveled off, the Niño 3.4 has once again had faster warming today after appearing to be stalling out with it up to +0.692 as of 18Z. On May 30th, I had thought it was stalling near +0.575 and then I thought the same near +0.65 yesterday.

 It has warmed on this chart 0.36 over the last 8 days. Whereas this is nowhere near a record fast warming for 8 days, which is about twice as fast, it is still notable. What would be even more notable would be if it were to continue warming at a similar rate over the next week or so and get to +1.0. 
 

 This warming started 2.5 weeks following the May 9th start of the 19 day -SOI streak. Considering that in combination with the >+1 C anomaly of the OHC as well as five subsequent solid -SOI days, it isn't surprising and there could very well be more warming over the next week.

 The SOI appears to be heading to neutral to slightly positive during the next week or so. But then it looks to probably head back down again for much of mid June, which may last through late June. That along with a continued quite warm OHC could easily lead to additional significant warming in July.

[snowman19]

@Gawx Nino 3.4 still warming, 1+2 back up over +2

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx Nino 3.4 still warming, 1+2 back up over +2

 Per Levi Cowan's Nino 3.4 CDAS based table, it has (as Leon just Tweeted) warmed to +0.7, which is a warming of 0.37 over just the last 9 days. Although the record fastest warming over the last 40 years during an incoming El Niño is ~twice that much, this is still a significant rise for just a 9 day period and it is still rising pretty steadily.

 Region 4 has also been warming pretty rapidly over the last three days (+0.05/day) and it has warmed 0.4 over just the last 9 days. Meanwhile, Nino 3 has stalled the last 3 days after warming 0.3 the prior 6 days.

 With Nino 3 stalled but already up at +0.975 and Nino 4 now up at +0.65 and still warming steadily, it would appear there's room for Nino 3.4 to warm from its current +0.7 up to +0.8 within a few days.

 Based on all of the above and although the ONI is based on a different SSTa dataset, there's a good chance as of now that MJJ will reach at least +0.6 with +0.7 not at all out of reach and even +0.8 reasonably possible. MAM came in at +0.1.

 For comparison back to 1950, the largest warming from MAM to MJJ has been 0.9, which occurred in 1997. Also, the warmest MJJ for an incoming El Niño was the +1.2 of 1997 with 1957's +1.1 next.

[snowman19]

 Per Levi Cowan's Nino 3.4 CDAS based table, it has (as Leon just Tweeted) warmed to +0.7, which is a warming of 0.37 over just the last 9 days. Although the record fastest warming over the last 40 years during an oncoming El Niño is ~twice that much, this is still a significant rise for just a 9 day period and it is still rising pretty steadily.
 Region 4 has also been warming pretty rapidly over the last three days (+0.05/day) and it has warmed 0.4 over just the last 9 days. Meanwhile, Nino 3 has stalled the last 3 days after warming 0.3 the prior 6 days.
 With Nino 3 stalled but already up at +0.975 and Nino 4 now up at +0.65 and still warming steadily, it would appear there's room for Nino 3.4 to warm from its current +0.7 up to +0.8 within a few days.
 Based on all of the above and although the ONI is based on a different SSTa dataset, there's a good chance as of now that MJJ will reach at least +0.6 with +0.7 not at all out of reach and even +0.8 reasonably possible. MAM came in at +0.1.
 For comparison back to 1950, the largest warming from MAM to MJJ has been 0.9, which occurred in 1997. Also, the warmest MJJ for an incoming El Niño was the +1.2 of 1997 with 1957's +1.1 next.

IMO, all this is making a high-end strong peak (at minimum) come late fall/early winter look more and more realistic and within reach

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

[griteater]

From @WorldClimateSvc

 

[thunderbolt]

As 3/4 goes up 1/2 comes down.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Remember, we don’t know what these CDAS daily values were in the past El Niño events. All we have to go by is the official numbers from the CPC. So it’s tough to get a read on how the two datasets compare. Nino  3.4 came in at 0.40 in May which doesn’t really stand out. The Nino 1.2 reading came in at 2.23 which is off the recent highs. 1957 was a little ahead at this point in 1.2 and 1997 was getting ready to go over +3.00 in June and July. 

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/dashboard.html

 

1. I've been wondering and asking here how CDAS is calculated. Do you know that and also what CDAS stands for? Anyone know?

2. Whereas Cowan's charts are CDAS based, I want to make sure that those viewing this thread realize that the maps bluewave posted along with the official ENSO ONI updates are both based on ERSSTv5 and that the CPC weeklies issued on Mondays are based on OISSTv2.1.
 
3. I just did some comparisons of last 3 months for the 3 datasets in 3.4:

a) Per Cowan CDAS daily graphs:

- Mar -0.22

- Apr +0.06

- May +0.39

 

b) Per ERSSTv5 graphs used for ONI:

- Mar -0.10

- Apr +0.15

- May +0.40

 

c) Per OISSTv2.1 based weekly #s:

- Mar -0.04

- Apr +0.20

- May 1-27: +0.45 (CDAS May 1-27: +0.37)

 

 The above shows that Cowan's CDAS graphs have been the coolest for March-May with them averaging 0.07 cooler per month vs what's used for ONI and 0.13 cooler per month vs what's used for the weeklies issued on Mondays. So, based on Mar-May, the other datasets for early June are more likely running about the same to slightly warmer than CDAS rather than slightly cooler than CDAS.

 Based on this I'm educatedly guessing that the OISSTv2.1 based Nino 3.4 weekly to be released tomorrow, which will cover the average for May 28th-June 3rd, will be either +0.6 or +0.7. This compares to the prior weekly of +0.4.

 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

It is a coincidence but the 1899 #s just happen to match my Atlantic tropical forecast for 2023.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The CFS has a trend bias.