El Nino 2023-2024

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

take it? i would pay for this three month 500mb mean. absolutely lights out 

A complete 180 from last winter would not surprise me. In this era we flip from one extreme to the next. 

Also am noticing cool SST anomalies building off the SE Canada & Atlantic coasts while MDR cooks. That supports the cool backdoor pattern for June expected to develop in the northeast.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 That's the first time I can recall Paul Tweeting explicitly about the chance for a super El Niño. So, he's going ~50-50 on a 2015-16 strength, which was a peak at +2.6 (stronger than any other since 1900). This implies Paul is at higher than a 50% chance for a super since super starts at +2.0.

I'll take the under on that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Terpeast said:

That’s a bazooka right there. Can only hope it can get close to verifying. 

Its a classic basin-wide el nino....been pretty consistent.

[griteater]

ENSO 3.4 is up to +0.78 as of 05-31 on the UK Met Office OSTIA data

"The Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA) system produces high resolution analysis and intercomparison products for the sea surface temperature (SST) of the global ocean from satellite and insitu data."

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

ENSO 3.4 is up to +0.78 as of 05-31 on the UK Met Office OSTIA data

"The Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA) system produces high resolution analysis and intercomparison products for the sea surface temperature (SST) of the global ocean from satellite and insitu data."

 

 Thanks for posting that OSTIA chart.
 
 I realize it isn't easy but it sure would help if all organizations went by one SST dataset for all measures. Regardless, I assume that looking at just the trend on whatever SST dataset one looks at is useful info and it is clear that both CDAS and OSTIA have been steadily increasing recently. Also, next Monday's update, which will incorporate the current week, will be informative.
 

- There's "CDAS" that Levi Cowan's site uses. I googled and couldn't find anything telling me what CDAS is or even just what it stands for! Do you or does someone else here know more about what CDAS is and who uses it? 

- There's "OISSTv2.1", which is used for the SSTa tables that are updated each Monday.

- There's "ERSST.v5" that's used for the ONI Nino 3.4 three month averaged charts that NOAA uses to determine the official ENSO classifications.

- There's "OSTIA" that you just posted from the UKMET office. 
 

Edit: When I googled "CDAS", the first on the list was this:

https://cdas.com
 
 It is for a law firm with "Cowan" as the first listed name. Is that not an unbelievable coincidence?!?

 I also googled CDAS SST and other similar things and didn't find what I was hoping to see.

[so_whats_happening]

Does anyone have a site to get GWO charts or data?

[jconsor]

2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Does anyone have a site to get GWO charts or data?

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/AAM.png

Dr. Gensini's site (https://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/) has CFS GWO forecasts at bottom

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, jconsor said:

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/AAM.png

Dr. Gensini's site (https://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/) has CFS GWO forecasts at bottom

I had seen these in looking around but Gensini site looked to have old data besides the CFS forecast which seemed to update. The other didn't quite match up with the tweets snowman had posted on page 27 or 28 I believe it was. 

[GaWx]

On 5/31/2023 at 9:04 AM, GaWx said:

 How does the current OHC compare to past oncoming El Niño events? I used the 3rd column from here and compared Aprils to give an apples to apples comparison to 2023:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

 

From warmest to coolest April OHC:

1997 (super peak): +2.17 

2014 (weak peak): +1.41

2023 (????????): +1.19

1982 (super peak): +0.93

2018 (weak peak): +0.81

1991 (strong peak): +0.80

2009 (strong peak): +0.65

2006 (weak peak): +0.42

2002 (moderate peak): +0.32

2004 (weak peak): +0.21

1986 (moderate peak): -0.02

1994 (moderate peak): -0.14

1979 (weak peak): -0.21

 

 Based on 13 rankings back to 1979:

- 2023 is respectable 3rd warmest

- Although much cooler than 1997, it is a little warmer than 1982. Also, 1982 rose only slightly the next two months.

- A bit warmer than the 2 strongs

- Much warmer than the 3 moderates

- Much warmer than 3 of the weaks and a bit warmer than 1 of the weaks, but oddly enough a little cooler than 1 of the weaks (2014)

- So, overall there's a pretty good correlation of April OHC to later peak ONI peak as all 4 strong to super are in top half and bottom half are all weak to moderate.

- But the weak 2014 is way out of synch with its 2nd warmest OHC and 2018 is somewhat out of synch with its 4th warmest OHC

- These April OHC rankings suggest that strong is very much a possibility for 2023 and even super can't at all be ruled out. But 2014 suggests that although highly unlikely that even a weak for 2023 is not out of the realm of reasonable possibilities.

 The May OHC just came in at +1.08. Although this is slightly cooler than the +1.19 of April, 2023 actually moved up from 3rd warmest last month to 2nd warmest in May due to 2014 dropping sharply.
 So, how does May of 2023 compare to Mays preceding other incoming (new) El Niño events?

From warmest to coolest May OHC:

1997 (super peak): +2.01

2023 (????????): +1.08

1982 (super peak): +0.96

2014 (weak peak): +0.95

2018 (weak peak): +0.88

2009 (strong peak): +0.87

1991 (strong peak): +0.76

2006 (weak peak): +0.54

1986 (moderate peak): +0.31

2004 (weak peak): +0.30

1994 (moderate peak): +0.16

2002 (moderate peak): +0.07

1979 (weak peak): +0.06

 

 Based on 13 rankings back to 1979:

- 2023 is notable as 2nd warmest vs 3rd warmest last month

- Although much cooler than 1997, it is still slightly warmer than 1982. But 1982's warming finally accelerates in August and exceeds +2 in October.

- Still a bit warmer than the 2 strongs

- Still much warmer than the 3 moderates

- 2014 fell sharply from 2nd warmest last month to 4th warmest now. (Its next two months continued the sharp fall to a negative value.)

- So, overall there's still a pretty good correlation of May OHC to later peak ONI peak as all 4 strong to super are still in top half and bottom half are still all weak to moderate.

- These May OHC rankings suggest that strong is still very much a possibility for 2023 and even super still can't at all be ruled out. Although 2014 will continue to fall off sharply in future monthly comparisons, 2018 held pretty steady in upcoming months just below +1.0 before rising to +1.47 in October telling me to not yet eliminate even weak as a small possibility.

-  Absent any significant cooling, 2023 will almost certainly be either 2nd, 3rd, or 4th warmest as of June. 1997 will almost certainly remain by far the warmest in June with either or both of 1982 and 2009 possibly being warmer than 2023 in June depending on what 2023 does.

*Edit: I haven't been including 1987 and 2015 in these tables because they were not new El Niño events but rather a continuation of the prior year's event, which would make them apples to oranges in comparison to 2023 and other new El Niño events. But I will note that 2015 peaked at +1.97 in August. So, all three supers peaked near or above +2 by October. This implies that 2023 would probably need to warm at least to the high +1 area by October to have a chance for a super peak with +2+ preferred.

[forkyfork]

it's nice to see the occasional post about the actual dynamics of the enso event and not winter nonsense 

[snowman19]

[brooklynwx99]

so far, I don't really see anything that supports a super Nino event, mainly due to the stark difference in the trade winds in the E Pacific. @bluewave mentioned this a few days ago, I believe. 

the very strong to super Nino events of 1972-73, 1982-83, 1996-97, and 2009-10 had very strong westerly winds across much of the western and central Pacific. 1972 and 1997 are the most striking examples with the westerlies pretty much off the charts. the westerlies in 1982 and 2015 were also strong and widespread... this obviously helped lead to very high-end events

looking at this year, we're seeing a stark departure from these very strong to super Nino years. there are some strong westerlies, but they're displaced near the Maritime continent and easterlies still dominate much of the equatorial Pacific. although I still expect El Nino to strengthen, it is clear that we likely aren't on the same track as the very strong to super Nino years of the past. I am aware that three years is not enough of a sample size to completely discount the possibility, but looking at these years, it's just too different for me to consider it a significant possibility

years like 2002 and 1986 are perhaps a bit more matched with this one with a more subdued WWB near the Maritime continent, but it's still not perfect by any means. 2004 is also kind of decent. this year is a bit of a weird one, I don't really see any legitimately great matches here

either way, my point is that it seems like a higher-end weak to low-end strong event seems much more likely than a legitimate strong to super event. I know that trade winds aren't the only factor that goes into ENSO development, but the sheer departure of this year compared to 1972/1982/1996/2015 really makes me pause. a year more similar to 2002/1986 looks more likely at this point. those years were both moderate Ninos that came off of three year -ENSO stretches, which also makes them a bit more pertinent

not totally sure where this will go, but if I had to bet on it, somewhere in the +0.8-1.6C range with a basin wide look makes the most sense to me. we'll see how it shakes out in the coming months... the very warm models should come back down to earth by July, definitely August. if they don't, we could have a very strong event on our hands. time will tell

[snowman19]

 The May OHC just came in at +1.08. Although this is slightly cooler than the +1.19 of April, 2023 actually moved up from 3rd warmest last month to 2nd warmest in May due to 2014 dropping sharply.
 So, how does May of 2023 compare to Mays preceding other incoming (new) El Niño events?
From warmest to coolest May OHC:
1997 (super peak): +2.01
2023 (????????): +1.08
1982 (super peak): +0.96
2014 (weak peak): +0.95
2018 (weak peak): +0.88
2009 (strong peak): +0.87
1991 (strong peak): +0.76
2006 (weak peak): +0.54
1986 (moderate peak): +0.31
2004 (weak peak): +0.30
1994 (moderate peak): +0.16
2002 (moderate peak): +0.07
1979 (weak peak): +0.06
 
 Based on 13 rankings back to 1979:
- 2023 is notable as 2nd warmest vs 3rd warmest last month
- Although much cooler than 1997, it is still slightly warmer than 1982. But 1982's warming finally accelerates in August and exceeds +2 in October.
- Still a bit warmer than the 2 strongs
- Still much warmer than the 3 moderates
- 2014 fell sharply from 2nd warmest last month to 4th warmest now. (Its next two months continued the sharp fall to a negative value.)
- So, overall there's still a pretty good correlation of May OHC to later peak ONI peak as all 4 strong to super are still in top half and bottom half are still all weak to moderate.
- These May OHC rankings suggest that strong is still very much a possibility for 2023 and even super still can't at all be ruled out. Although 2014 will continue to fall off sharply in future monthly comparisons, 2018 held pretty steady in upcoming months just below +1.0 before rising to +1.47 in October telling me to not yet eliminate even weak as a small possibility.
-  Absent any significant cooling, 2023 will almost certainly be either 2nd, 3rd, or 4th warmest as of June. 1997 will almost certainly remain by far the warmest in June with either or both of 1982 and 2009 possibly being warmer than 2023 in June depending on what 2023 does.
*Edit: I haven't been including 1987 and 2015 in these tables because they were not new El Niño events but rather a continuation of the prior year's event, which would make them apples to oranges in comparison to 2023 and other new El Niño events. But I will note that 2015 peaked at +1.97 in August. So, all three supers peaked near or above +2 by October. This implies that 2023 would probably need to warm at least to the high +1 area by October to have a chance for a super peak with +2+ preferred.

More of what Paul Roundy alluded to, this Nino is well ahead of other major El Niño years in region 1+2

[brooklynwx99]

is that better forkles @forkyfork

[bluewave]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

More of what Paul Roundy alluded to, this Nino is well ahead of other major El Niño years in region 1+2

1997 at this point was warmer east of the Dateline. But this year is warmer west of the Dateline. So the actual forcing is displaced further west. This is currently an east based El Niño by departures, but its forcing is further west where the warmest SSTs are located.

[snowman19]

[etudiant]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

Have to say that this is disappointing.

It recognizes the warmth in the Atlantic and then says  it does not count because the Pacific is having an unusual El nino.

Basically says only global models have value, basin wide analysis is inadequate.

Guess I'm not cut out to be a meteorologist, I've no grasp of global models..

[bdgwx]

22 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Have to say that this is disappointing.

It recognizes the warmth in the Atlantic and then says  it does not count because the Pacific is having an unusual El nino.

Basically says only global models have value, basin wide analysis is inadequate.

Guess I'm not cut out to be a meteorologist, I've no grasp of global models..

Maybe I misinterpreted but I read that as it will only be a near normal season despite the warm Atlantic due to the robust El Nino expectation mitigating activity. In other words, had the expectation been for a weak El Nino or neutral ENSO phase then the CSU forecast might have been for an above average season. Or had the Atlantic been cooler with a robust El Nino then the CSU forecast might have been for a below average season. I read that as an acknowledgement of what is happening in both oceans. Did you read it differently?

[etudiant]

41 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Maybe I misinterpreted but I read that as it will only be a near normal season despite the warm Atlantic due to the robust El Nino expectation mitigating activity. In other words, had the expectation been for a weak El Nino or neutral ENSO phase then the CSU forecast might have been for an above average season. Or had the Atlantic been cooler with a robust El Nino then the CSU forecast might have been for a below average season. I read that as an acknowledgement of what is happening in both oceans. Did you read it differently?

The issue to me is that it explicitly says local forecasts at the basin wide level are inadequate, that a global perspective is needed.

That makes the problem very much more difficult. Does anyone have a respectable global model?

[chubbs]

Typical early nino shift in Pacific warm water volume with west decreasing and east increasing. Following triple nina, warm water values in the west Pacific have been at record values which would allow a strong/super nino. We''ll have to see if potential is realized.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

so far, I don't really see anything that supports a super Nino event, mainly due to the stark difference in the trade winds in the E Pacific. @bluewave mentioned this a few days ago, I believe. 

the very strong to super Nino events of 1972-73, 1982-83, 1996-97, and 2009-10 had very strong westerly winds across much of the western and central Pacific. 1972 and 1997 are the most striking examples with the westerlies pretty much off the charts. the westerlies in 1982 and 2015 were also strong and widespread... this obviously helped lead to very high-end events

looking at this year, we're seeing a stark departure from these very strong to super Nino years. there are some strong westerlies, but they're displaced near the Maritime continent and easterlies still dominate much of the equatorial Pacific. although I still expect El Nino to strengthen, it is clear that we likely aren't on the same track as the very strong to super Nino years of the past. I am aware that three years is not enough of a sample size to completely discount the possibility, but looking at these years, it's just too different for me to consider it a significant possibility

years like 2002 and 1986 are perhaps a bit more matched with this one with a more subdued WWB near the Maritime continent, but it's still not perfect by any means. 2004 is also kind of decent. this year is a bit of a weird one, I don't really see any legitimately great matches here

either way, my point is that it seems like a higher-end weak to low-end strong event seems much more likely than a legitimate strong to super event. I know that trade winds aren't the only factor that goes into ENSO development, but the sheer departure of this year compared to 1972/1982/1996/2015 really makes me pause. a year more similar to 2002/1986 looks more likely at this point. those years were both moderate Ninos that came off of three year -ENSO stretches, which also makes them a bit more pertinent

not totally sure where this will go, but if I had to bet on it, somewhere in the +0.8-1.6C range with a basin wide look makes the most sense to me. we'll see how it shakes out in the coming months... the very warm models should come back down to earth by July, definitely August. if they don't, we could have a very strong event on our hands. time will tell

2002 maybe a bit too far west in comparison, but I have been saying all spring that the steadfast Canadian seasonal reminds me of the 1986-1987 el nino event with respect to placement and strength. Funny you mention 2004, as I was thinking of that year when I read Raindance's comment about a stormy but not particularly cold winter in the NE...just as an anecdotal aside, not claiming its necessarily a viable analog.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, forkyfork said:

it's nice to see the occasional post about the actual dynamics of the enso event and not winter nonsense 

I get why the obsession with winter can get obnoxious..we all have our things. The constant barrage of copy/paste jobs from twitter are also like nails on a chalkboard.....strikes me as a very lazy, haphazard means of promulgating an agenda.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

This strikes me as potentially a season like 1992...in that it may not be remembered for the volume of intense storms, but rather that one intense storm that manages to avail of the warm SSTs by avoiding the shear and striking a major population center.

[snowman19]

2002 maybe a bit too far west in comparison, but I have been saying all spring that the steadfast Canadian seasonal reminds me of the 1986-1987 el nino event with respect to placement and strength. Funny you mention 2004, as I was thinking of that year when I read Raindance's comment about a stormy but not particularly cold winter in the NE...just as an anecdotal aside, not claiming its necessarily a viable analog.

2002 was a textbook Modoki, nothing at all like how this event is developing, not even close, in fact the El Ninos since 1980 have not developed like this, as Paul Roundy pointed out multiple times. The only one right now saying 02-03 is an “analog” is Joe Bastardi, who is wishcasting, as usual. He’s also using 57-58, 65-66, 09-10 and 76-77. No surprise coming from that utter hack

[snowman19]

I get why the obsession with winter can get obnoxious..we all have our things. The constant barrage of copy/paste jobs from twitter are also like nails on a chalkboard.....strikes me as a very lazy, haphazard means of promulgating an agenda.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

16 hours ago, etudiant said:

The issue to me is that it explicitly says local forecasts at the basin wide level are inadequate, that a global perspective is needed.

That makes the problem very much more difficult. Does anyone have a respectable global model?

Reminds me a bit of posts on S2K and Wunderground 20+ years ago in August when the Gulf was 30C.  'The Gulf is boiling, we are going to have a big storm.  It is ready to explode'.

 

Many years in the Gulf, (and would apply basin wide), not so much, if shear over warm water is very strong, if there are planetary wave events (not an expert in wave breaking and the such) are suppressive, than a warmer than normal Atlantic will be suppressed to near normal, or even below normal, activity, even if SST/OHC is otherwise favorable to TCs.   The Pacific Basin is larger, intuitive anomalies there would dominate other oceanic basin anomalies. 

See also 1992 comment, possibility of a 'mega' event tropically if high OHC is undisturbed by TC activity and then one storm gets a window in shear and subsidence to develop.  Speaking of 1992, Iniki was so rare, it is a fluke, but I have to assume an East to Central based Nino would favor Hawaii, even if overall odds are low. 

On the 1997 and 2015 analogue fronts, if they verify, 3 or 4 (we have close to one already) storms from non-tropical origins in June and July seem possible.  Those storms may help the season approach normal despite a suppressed MDR ASO.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

2002 was a textbook Modoki, nothing at all like how this event is developing, not even close, in fact the El Ninos since 1980 have not developed like this, as Paul Roundy pointed out multiple times. The only one right now saying 02-03 is an “analog” is Joe Bastardi, who is wishcasting, as usual. He’s also using 57-58, 65-66, 09-10 and 76-77. No surprise coming from that utter hack

2002 is actually a pretty good analog for this summer when using general ENSO strength, PDO, Atlantic SSTs and the 500mb pattern during March and April. both myself and two other meteorologists came up with it as one of the top summer analogs for my company's summer outlook, and I wouldn't say that either of them have a cold bias

I do not expect a Modoki to form for this winter by any means, but it can't be discounted... same for an east-based event. I personally expect basin wide. however, the similarities thus far are quite notable. that winter also came off of a three year stretch of -ENSO, similar to this one

[bdgwx]

Does anyone know of actively updated ENSO forecasts from any of the AI/ML models (i.e. Taylor & Feng 2022 or Ham et al. 2019). Apparently they have superior skill to both statistical and dynamic modeling per Chen et al. 2023. I wonder what these models are saying for the current ENSO cycle.

[griteater]

31 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Does anyone know of actively updated ENSO forecasts from any of the AI/ML models (i.e. Taylor & Feng 2022 or Ham et al. 2019). Apparently they have superior skill to both statistical and dynamic modeling per Chen et al. 2023. I wonder what these models are saying for the current ENSO cycle.

I’d have to track it down, but I saw a reference one day this week where one of these types of models was forecasting a peak of around +1.0 with this Nino. 
 

One thing you might do is try to contact the author of the paper (email) to see if they have current model data you can view.

[snowman19]