El Nino 2023-2024

[csnavywx]

There were plenty of reasons to be bearish on a forecasted Nino in '18. No IOD help, lack of recharge time, lack of WWV, etc, etc. 

[csnavywx]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The record IOD didn’t help El Niño development much in 19-20 like it did in 94-95 and 97-98. The very weak Modoki that winter got overpowered by other factors.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/meet-enso’s-neighbor-indian-ocean-dipole

Typically, the strength of the IOD is monitored with the so-called Dipole Mode Index, which is a measure of the surface temperature difference between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean. The monthly Dipole Mode Index time series reveals other extreme positive phase IOD events, like in 1994 and 1997, but 2019 brought the most extreme event over past 40 years, at least according to this particular index. This event reached its peak in October and November before rapidly weakening in December—a rather typical seasonal evolution for an IOD event. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which regularly monitors the IOD, the current Dipole Mode Index is near zero (3), indicating that the IOD has returned to neutral conditions. 

 

 

 

Yeah, and the strong pos IOD collapsing like that in boreal autumn is a coherent signal for Nina development the following year.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Yeah, and the strong pos IOD collapsing like that in boreal autumn is a coherent signal for Nina development the following year.

And the Australian wildfires also.

 

[csnavywx]

Yep, read that one! Helluva interesting paper.

[snowman19]

[Yanksfan]

Region 3.4 continues to drop down to .32. Region 1.2 after an earlier significant drop has leveled off for the time being. I’m having some serious doubts of a super El Niño let alone a strong one. My gut tells me we peak out at a moderate basin wide event. I’d certainly take my chances with that during the winter for folks in the NE/ Mid Atlantic regions.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Region 3.4 continues to drop down to .32. Region 1.2 after an earlier significant drop has leveled off for the time being. I’m having some serious doubts of a super El Niño let alone a strong one. My gut tells me we peak out at a moderate basin wide event. I’d certainly take my chances with that during the winter for folks in the NE/ Mid Atlantic regions.

As would I. I don’t want to see a high-end strong or super as 1) that would flood the entire CONUS (and globe) with excess warmth, and 2) it may kick off yet another multi-year nina. 

[snowman19]

Region 3.4 continues to drop down to .32. Region 1.2 after an earlier significant drop has leveled off for the time being. I’m having some serious doubts of a super El Niño let alone a strong one. My gut tells me we peak out at a moderate basin wide event. I’d certainly take my chances with that during the winter for folks in the NE/ Mid Atlantic regions.

I would recommend you give your gut another month

[GaWx]

 Today's SOI is -21. It will rise sharply again tomorrow. The -SOI streak may or may not end tomorrow as it looks to be close. If not, it looks to end Sunday.

 It will fall back at the end of the month and is progged to drop to ~~-22 on 5/31. May is projected to end up ~-14 to -15.

 Looking further, I see no significant AN SLP in Darwin on the models during 6/1-7. It is looking to average NN to possibly a bit BN. Tahiti is less clear as all show BN early while some (operationals) suggest mainly BN probably lingering the whole week while ensembles suggest mainly NN returning.

 So, whereas the consensus suggests no return to another lengthy strong -SOI the first week of June, it is hard to predict about where that period will end up. For now, I'm leaning fairly neutral.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 5/25/2023 at 1:44 AM, raindancewx said:

I've been thinking about listing my analog model online for purchase online. Would any of you be interested? You basically type in your expected winter outcomes on seven global variables. Then all years back to 1931 are scored based on a weighted statistical model I developed off of a multi-factor polynomial regression.

The scoring is then sortable, and I have a listing of what each variable corresponds to over the long-term (rain, snow, temps, etc in winter). Since ENSO is important but not dominant in the model, you can get strong scoring matches for ENSO years that are not in the same third of the scale (i.e. a rogue La Nina or Neutral might match this year) in special circumstances. 

Usually there are one or two odd ducklings in the seven variable set. So I pick a fixer year among the medium-level match years to bring the pack to the point of mimicking actual global conditions. The main purpose of the tool is to systematically score years as similar or dissimilar without needing to run through hundreds of maps manually. Knowing the most dissimilar years can actually be useful too, to see if reversing the exact opposite years produces similar matches to the most similar years.

The objective scoring last year had both 1984 and 2016 as strong matches as an example. Pretty cold and severely wet winters in the West, just like we actually saw. 1995 was in there as among the least similar La Ninas, which is part of why I was pretty bullish on a shitty season for snow for most of you in the Northeast.

I would purchase that. Your methodology is very interesting, and I have learned a lot from it. Its helped me to become less over reliant on ENSO as I have tried incorporating some of the temp and precip matches. That undoubtedly saved me from a much worse forecast had I just stuck with my original way, given that I incorrectly expected an eastern tilted la nina. The precip and temp maps prompted me to use some analog seasons that were pretty unsavory for eastern US winter enthusiasts, such as 2001 and 2011....which was a red flag against going for a big winter. I never, ever would have included those had I not began doing those temp/precip matches. This is the main reason why I went with less snow (around normal) relative to what one would expect given the type of blocky pattern that I had anticipated. I remember getting questions about why I wasn't going for more snow based on the pattern I had depicted. Turns out that was on the right track, but just not accentuated enough.

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would purchase that. Your methodology is very interesting, and I have learned a lot from it. Its helped me to become less over reliant on ENSO as I have tried incorporating some of the temp and precip matches. That undoubtedly saved me from a much worse forecast had I just stuck with my original way, given that I incorrectly expected an eastern tilted la nina. The precip and temp maps prompted me to use some analog seasons that were pretty unsavory for eastern US winter enthusiasts, such as 2001 and 2011....which was a red flag against going for a big winter. I never, ever would have included those modoki la nina seasons had I not began doing those temp/precip matches. This is the main reason why I went with less snow (around normal) relative to what one would expect given the type of blocky pattern that I had anticipated. I remember getting questions about why I wasn't going for more snow based on the pattern I had depicted. Turns out that was one the right track, but just not accentuated enough.

This a great example of why this forum is such a great tool....the sharing of information is such a catalyst for growth. We all bring different methods and insight to the table.

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Weren't we seeing that most of last winter?

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Weren't we seeing that most of last winter?

Yeah, looks like a continuation from last winter. Probably related to localized warm pool and forcing south of Hawaii. The strong -PDO -PNA couplet was classic Maritime Continent Niña forcing. So a bit of a hybrid pattern. 

 

[GaWx]

 I'd like to look at the BoM model's May forecast's bias more closely, since it has been discussed quite a bit recently due to its extremely warm May forecast, to see if it really hasn't had a Eurolike strong warm bias when averaged out like I had been thinking. The BoM has been using "Access" since 2020 and POAMA prior to that.

 

Year: May forecast for ASO BoM/Euro, actual ASO, BoM miss vs Euro miss

2022: -0.4/-0.3   -1.0   +0.6 vs +0.7

2021: -0.5/0.0      -0.7   +0.2 vs +0.7

2020: -0.8/-0.3    -0.9   +0.1 vs +0.6

2019: +0.2/+0.7   +0.2    0.0 vs +0.5

2018: -0.2/+0.6    +0.5   -0.7 vs +0.1

2017: +0.2/+0.8.   -0.4    +0.6 vs +1.2

2016: -0.8/-0.5     -0.6    -0.2 vs +0.1

2015: +1.6/+2.4    +2.2   -0.6 vs +0.2

2014: +0.8/+1.5    +0.2   +0.6 vs +1.3

2013: -0.8/-0.1      -0.3.   -0.5 vs +0.2

-----------------------------------

2012: +0.9/+0.8    +0.4   +0.5 vs +0.4

2011: +1.2/-0.2      -0.8    +2.0 vs +0.6

2010: -0.4/-0.9     -1.6     +1.2 vs +0.7

2009: +1.4/+0.8    +0.7    +0.7 vs +0.1

2008: +0.3/-0.2    -0.2     +0.5 vs 0.0

2007: -1.0/-0.8      -1.1      +0.1 vs +0.3

-----------------------------------

2006: -1.0/+0.4    +0.3     -1.3 vs +0.1

2005: +1.0/+0.4    -0.1     +1.1 vs +0.5

2004: +0.7/+0.5   +0.6    +0.1 vs -0.1

2003: -0.9/-0.4    +0.2    -1.1  vs -0.6

2002: +1.0/+0.7    +0.9    +0.1 vs -0.2

-------------------------------------

Analysis:

1) 2013-22:

 - BoM had no net bias (average miss of 0.0) with 3 significantly too warm and 3 significantly too cold

- Euro had a strong warm bias (average miss of +0.6) with 6 of 10 significantly too warm

- BoM cooler than Euro 10 of 10 and significantly colder 8 of 10 years

2) 2007-12:

- BoM had a strong warm bias (average miss of +0.8) with 5 of 6 significantly too warm

- Euro had a moderate warm bias (average miss of +0.35) with 2 of 6 significantly too warm

- BoM warmer than Euro 5 of 6

 

3) 2002-06: based on JAS, not ASO

- BoM had a moderate cold bias (average miss of -0.4) with 2 of 5 significantly too cold and 1 of 5 significantly too warm

- Euro had no net bias (avg miss ~0) with 1 of 5 significantly too cold and 1 of 5 significantly too warm

------------------------------

 Conclusions:

1. Based on the last 10 years, which is the most relevant period, the BoM has had no net bias vs the Euro's strong warm bias, which is what I earlier thought. The Euro hasn't been too cold since way back in 2004!

2. However, the BoM lack of a net bias doesn't mean it hasn't had too warm or too cold years.

3. May of 2023 is highly unusual in that the May BoM for ASO is way up at +2.5. This is a whopping 0.9 warmer than any other back to 2002! The second warmest was the +1.6 of 2015. That turned out to be 0.6 too cold.

 May of 2023's BoM's +2.5 for ASO is highly unusual also because it isn't just warmer than the Euro, it is MUCH warmer than the Euro's +1.8! The BoM hadn't been warmer than the Euro since way back in 2012 and this time it is 0.7 warmer!

 There's the chance that BoM had a major modification since 2021 that warmed it.

4. Keeping in mind points #2 and #3 above, considering that the May BoM predicted June to be +1.25 and seeing that it likely will start June no warmer than +0.5, and considering history, the odds are very high that BoM will verify too warm and possibly significantly too warm in June. This all tells me that BoM's +2.5 for ASO will likely verify significantly too warm. Being that the May Euro hasn't been too cold since 2004, I'm predicting 2023 won't be either. Thus, I'm predicting that ASO will end up no warmer than +1.8 and quite possibly cooler due to strong Euro warm bias.

[snowman19]

Weren't we seeing that most of last winter?

This is highly anomalous for June

[snowman19]

Yeah, many of the dynamical models are showing a warm bias relative to how strong the trades have been in the Central Pacific. There has never been a super +2.0 or greater event without the WWBs pushing east of the dateline during spring. The strongest El Niño since 1980 with higher spring trades was 09-10 which made it to +1.6 after a trade wind relaxation in June. If the WWBs can’t pick up in June, then the historic ceiling has been a weak to moderate event that may or may not couple due to RONI. We couldn’t couple in 18-19 and 19-20. The result was a Niña style background pattern. So the tropical wind pattern in June could determine where this event ends up.

 



 

At this point, it’s a given that there’s going to be a significant El Niño. What you are showing tells me that the chances of this becoming a Modoki or even a basin-wide event are getting slimmer and slimmer. I’m wondering if Region 4 even reaches El Niño status now, it may not. This is just lending more support that this stays an exclusively east-based/Eastern Pacific El Nino event

[snowman19]

The only thing the spring Central Pacific Wind index suggests is that a super El Niño has never followed such strong trades near the Dateline .A Strong +1.5 could still be possible if the WWBs come on strong enough in June. Be we may only be able reach +0.5 +1.4 and run the risk of another non coupling event if the trades stay up. We have essentially been in 7 year La Niña since 16-17.
 

Yea, based on what you’ve been showing, I’m becoming more convinced that this Nino event stays east-based and never goes basin-wide or Modoki. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Region 4 stays neutral throughout this event given what’s been going on and projected to continue. This would be the 1st true Eastern Pacific/EP El Niño in forever

[griteater]

Yeah the early East Pac activity (warming) is pretty much moot without more downwelling kelvin waves and warming coming from the west 

[so_whats_happening]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, many of the dynamical models are showing a warm bias relative to how strong the trades have been in the Central Pacific. There has never been a super +2.0 or greater event without the WWBs pushing east of the dateline during spring. The strongest El Niño since 1980 with higher spring trades was 09-10 which made it to +1.6 after a trade wind relaxation in June. If the WWBs can’t pick up in June, then the historic ceiling has been a weak to moderate event that may or may not couple due to RONI. We couldn’t couple in 18-19 and 19-20. The result was a Niña style background pattern. So the tropical wind pattern in June could determine where this event ends up.

 

 

Yea feel like i have been mentioning it for awhile something just felt off this year. Again who knows maybe we do see a dramatic reversal take place but as of now moderate seems likely. Had for the longest time felt weak nino but it does have a chance still of some moderate even potential strong readings if things can get going. Otherwise yea lack of wwb really hurting the chances.

Id be curious with the westward propagating wwb and trades if we manage another warming potential in the 1+2 region again come mid to late june. Still early to know for surr yet.

With this slight weakening of trades in the next week most things should maintain status quo but given lack of anything in the pipeline right now should continue to weaken temps as we head through june.

[so_whats_happening]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I can remember using the charts below in tracking the 15-16 super El Niño. The dark reds and whites from 120 E to 150 E were consistently 150 E to 160 W in the spring. We would need the darker reds and whites to shift closer to or just east of the Dateline for the Nino 3.4 to warm from 0.4 to +1.0. We did get some weaker WWBs east of the Dateline last few days. But nothing sustained. So it looks like we hold steady around +0.4 to +0.5 as long as this wind pattern continues. Nino 1+2 started dipping back below +2 recently which was off recent highs since there were no follow up big WWBs there. 

 

Wow at that u anom map i was waiting to see it update but did not expect to see a wide region of enhanced trades.

You can tell this last episode did try to buckle the pattern though. Forecasts past 7 days have been rather rough so lets see where we go from here. Im more curious where the tropical activity will pick up this year. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

Wow at that u anom map i was waiting to see it update but did not expect to see a wide region of enhanced trades.

You can tell this last episode did try to buckle the pattern though. Forecasts past 7 days have been rather rough so lets see where we go from here. Im more curious where the tropical activity will pick up this year. 

Yeah, I mainly use those wind charts for the first 7 days. Models beyond 7 days aren’t that accurate. It’s probably why ENSO forecasts made in the spring can be so unreliable. They continue the momentum forward of what ever the initialized SSTs are. The winds this spring were the opposite of what occurred in the past in developing super events. They looked  more like past events in the +0.7 to +1.6 range. That range would be my best guess right now. But the lower half of that may not be able to couple due to RONI.

Recent developing +0.7 to +1.6 spring trade winds composite similar to 2023
 

Nothing like developing super El Niño events

 

 

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

Is that the GFS forecast you usually share here? 

Looking at the dateline between now and June 6th or so, that's quite a change from previous forecasts. Previously, it was mostly blue, but now it's mostly neutral. Could be a sign of the models catching up to the transition?

I don't pay attention to anything beyond 7 days so the stronger trades on June 6th and onward in this run may or may not actually pan out. But we're still not out of the spring predictability barrier, so.

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Is that the GFS forecast you usually share here? 

Looking at the dateline between now and June 6th or so, that's quite a change from previous forecasts. Previously, it was mostly blue, but now it's mostly neutral. Could be a sign of the models catching up to the transition?

I don't pay attention to anything beyond 7 days so the stronger trades on June 6th and onward in this run may or may not actually pan out. But we're still not out of the spring predictability barrier, so.

Yeah, the GFS is similar to the Euro in keeping the strongest WWBs back near the Philippines which won’t cause much ENSO change in the near term. No strong trades near the Dateline but no strong WWBs either. Also notice how the core of the strongest winds is displaced north of the 5N -5S equatorial zone. 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

 The -SOI streak finally ended today. It ended up at a rather impressive 19 days long. But how does this compare to the longest -SOI streaks of other oncoming El Niño years through June 15th starting with 1994 (first year the daily data is available) along with the respective Nino strengths?

-1994: 34 and 29 days (moderate)

-1997: 35 and 27 days (super)

-2002: 29 days (moderate)

-2004: 25 days (weak)

-2006: 14 days (weak)

-2009: 13 days (strong)

-2014: 25 days (weak)

-2018: 22 days (weak)

 
 So, although rather impressive, the 19 days of 2023 is actually much shorter than the moderate 1994, the super 1997, and the moderate 2002. Also, it is a bit shorter than even the weak 2004, 2014, and 2018. But it is a bit longer than the strong 2009 and the weak 2006.

 So, overall six years had longer streaks and only two years had shorter ones. Based on this the 19 day longest streak of the year through June 15th isn't by itself screaming out that a super strong El Niño or even just a strong or, for that matter, even just a moderate is likely on the way.

 Looking at the entire year, the weak 2006's longest was only 16 days (twice). But the strong 2009 did have a 28 day streak from early October til early November. So, all four moderate+ had a 28+ day long -SOI streak by November. So, if 2023 is going to end up moderate+, I'd expect to see a much longer than 19 day streak to come no later than autumn and probably by summer.

 But OTOH only 1997-8 and 2009-10 had a lower -SOI than the -65 of 5/24/2023. So, that tells me that the chance for strong is probably higher than what the mere 19 day longest streak of the year to date suggests.

 So, lots of uncertainty remains as far as how strong will be the eventual peak this fall/winter.

 

 

[snowman19]

 The -SOI streak finally ended today. It ended up at a rather impressive 19 days long. But how does this compare to the longest -SOI streaks of other oncoming El Niño years through June 15th starting with 1994 (first year the daily data is available) along with the respective Nino strengths?
-1994: 34 and 29 days (moderate)
-1997: 35 and 27 days (super)
-2002: 29 days (moderate)
-2004: 25 days (weak)
-2006: 14 days (weak)
-2009: 13 days (strong)
-2014: 25 days (weak)
-2018: 22 days (weak)
 
 So, although rather impressive, the 19 days of 2023 is actually much shorter than the moderate 1994, the super 1997, and the moderate 2002. Also, it is a bit shorter than even the weak 2004, 2014, and 2018. But it is a bit longer than the strong 2009 and the weak 2006.
 So, overall six years had longer streaks and only two years had shorter ones. Based on this the 19 day longest streak of the year through June 15th isn't by itself screaming out that a super strong El Niño or even just a strong or, for that matter, even just a moderate is likely on the way.
 Looking at the entire year, the weak 2006's longest was only 16 days (twice). But the strong 2009 did have a 28 day streak from early October til early November. So, all four moderate+ had a 28+ day long -SOI streak by November. So, if 2023 is going to end up moderate+, I'd expect to see a much longer than 19 day streak to come no later than autumn and probably by summer.
 But OTOH only 1997-8 and 2009-10 had a lower -SOI than the -65 of 5/24/2023. So, that tells me that the chance for strong is probably higher than what the mere 19 day longest streak of the year to date suggests.
 So, lots of uncertainty remains as far as how strong will be the eventual peak this fall/winter.
 
 

I still think strong is definitely a very distinct possibility

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I still think strong is definitely a very distinct possibility

 I also still do. But based on a combo of my own observations/statistical analyses and what @bluewaveand others have said about the current state of the W/C Pacific, I've reduced the chance for strong+ somewhat in favor of a higher chance for moderate vs how I earlier thought.
 
 Earlier, I had strong as the best chance, followed by high end moderate (say, +1.3 to +1.4) followed by low end super. My sweet spot was ~+1.7. Now, I feel that moderate's chances are getting closer to strong's chances with a lower end moderate (+1.0 to +1.2) chance increasing vs how I earlier thought. Also, whereas I earlier had a small chance for low end super, I now feel its chances are barely hanging by a thread. Thus my continually adjusted sweet spot has dropped from ~+1.7 to ~+1.5.  

 By the way, I'm licking my chops more and more as far as next winter's potential is concerned, especially here in the SE for the less unreliable temperatures vs the always hard to predict wintry precip since that is often mainly just a one major shot deal even in "good winters", but that's way on down the line and an issue for another time.

 If the W/C Pacific doesn't start to change soon, a high end weak is going to start to come into the picture as a nontrivial possibility in my mind.

[GaWx]

 In order for the upcoming Nino to end up as just weak, the ONI would need to peak at +0.9 at most. The May BoM is forecasting a +2.5+ peak. So, a weak peak would require a +1.6+ miss for the May BoM. Nothing even close to that much of a miss for the May BoM has occurred since way back in 2011. Then, in May it predicted +1.1 for ASO and ASO verified way down at -0.9 for a whopping +2.0 miss. But that was during a period (2008-12) when BoM missed for five years in a row significantly too warm. Since then, it has averaged no bias. 
 So for now, I'm keeping weak's chances as very low.