El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I’m stating fact you vapid little airhead. This event is very clearly developing as east-based, does it stay that way who knows? But right now, it is definitely not a Modoki event taking shape. Don’t believe me? Get go on twitter and argue it out with HM and Paul Roundy, who both say this is developing as an east-based El Niño. Sorry, but that’s reality

I really don't see the relevance of the modoki index 9 months before winter...again, last season was east based heading into December...you just saw raindance post that these currents operate on conveyor belts at 3 months lead. Thus your information, while factual, is largely irrelevant within the context of winter '23-'24 dialogue. Maybe it will end up being east based, but it won't be because its east based now.

[roardog]

I know most people here don’t care about summer but I wonder if the extra water vapor plus developing El Niño could lead to a cooler, wet summer this year.

[etudiant]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

I know most people here don’t care about summer but I wonder if the extra water vapor plus developing El Niño could lead to a cooler, wet summer this year.

Why cooler? Hotter and more soggy seems equally likely?

[roardog]

55 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Why cooler? Hotter and more soggy seems equally likely?

Maybe cooler wasn’t the correct word to use. When I say cooler I mean Dallas, Texas has above normal rainfall with most days under 100F as opposed to a pattern where it’s dry as a bone in Dallas and there’s a record number of 100F days. I’m just using Dallas as an example of what I mean by cooler and wetter pattern in the US. Probably another one of those summers where nighttime lows are well above normal and daytime highs are not. 

[snowman19]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I really don't see the relevance of the modoki index 9 months before winter...again, last season was east based heading into December...you just saw raindance post that these currents operate on conveyor belts at 3 months lead. Thus your information, while factual, is largely irrelevant within the context of winter '23-'24 dialogue. Maybe it will end up being east based, but it won't be because its east based now.

I don’t see it either. Who knows how ENSO will look 9 months from now, whether it will be east-based or not. The striking thing is that it’s been decades (97-98) since we have seen an El Niño develop like this. Pretty much all the Nino events since then have been Modoki’s. Does this continue? Who knows but so far this is way out of the norm for the last 20 years. This may be -PDO regime related: 

 

[George001]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t see it either. Who knows how ENSO will look 9 months from now, whether it will be east-based or not. The striking thing is that it’s been decades (97-98) since we have seen an El Niño develop like this. Pretty much all the Nino events since then have been Modoki’s. Does this continue? Who knows but so far this is way out of the norm for the last 20 years. This may be -PDO regime related: 

 

It’s definitely east based now but yeah it’s unclear whether it will stay that way or turn into a modoki. The more important takeaway here is the El Niño events that did build from east to west historically have been quite strong. There are a lot of signs this El Niño will be a strong one, coming off a 3 year Nina, MJO on roids during the seasonal change, all the warmth in the subsurface, etc. we also haven’t had a big nino since 2015-2016.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

It’s definitely east based now but yeah it’s unclear whether it will stay that way or turn into a modoki. The more important takeaway here is the El Niño events that did build from east to west historically have been quite strong. There are a lot of signs this El Niño will be a strong one, coming off a 3 year Nina, MJO on roids during the seasonal change, all the warmth in the subsurface, etc. we also haven’t had a big nino since 2015-2016.

And a healthy +IOD is developing. Region 1+2 is on fire right now and region 3 is also warming extremely rapidly. If this continues into the summer (big If) I think there may be a shot at a strong/super El Niño, but way, way too early

 

[thunderbolt]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

And a healthy +IOD is developing. Region 1+2 is on fire right now and region 3 is also warming extremely rapidly. If this continues into the summer (big If) I think there may be a shot at a strong/super El Niño, but way, way too early

 

I know it’s way out there I’m just showing example of a possible basin Wide But once again I don’t trust way too early

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

And a healthy +IOD is developing. Region 1+2 is on fire right now and region 3 is also warming extremely rapidly. If this continues into the summer (big If) I think there may be a shot at a strong/super El Niño, but way, way too early

 

Maybe strong, but I don't see a "super" event.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe strong, but I don't see a "super" event.

What is considered to be the line between a strong vs super? +2.5?

[George BM]

50 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

What is considered to be the line between a strong vs super? +2.5?

When the tri-monthly ONI is at or above 2.0C for at least 3 consecutive months. (Ex: OND: 2.0, NDJ 2.1,  DJF 2.0)

+/- 1.5C strong

+/- 1.0C moderate

+/- 0.5C weak

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

What is considered to be the line between a strong vs super? +2.5?

I would say 2.0 and up....

[LibertyBell]

On 3/18/2023 at 7:18 PM, roardog said:

Maybe cooler wasn’t the correct word to use. When I say cooler I mean Dallas, Texas has above normal rainfall with most days under 100F as opposed to a pattern where it’s dry as a bone in Dallas and there’s a record number of 100F days. I’m just using Dallas as an example of what I mean by cooler and wetter pattern in the US. Probably another one of those summers where nighttime lows are well above normal and daytime highs are not. 

yuck my most hated pattern, dry and hot is far preferable, not artificial inflation of averages with warmer mins

 

 

[LibertyBell]

On 3/17/2023 at 10:27 PM, raindancewx said:

This article references a paper stating that although Tonga added record amounts of water vapor to sky globally, it also had the biggest aerosol eruption globally since Pinatubo in 1991. 

https://t.co/kMtmm098aC

This past winter you had 10-15% extra water in the sky. That enhanced rainfall/moisture saturation in any given column of air. But you also had unusual cold pockets from dimmed solar radiance. If you look around the US, most places, even very warm spots in winter, had at least one record cold snap (like Boston at -10). I'd expect the weirdness with the cold pockets to continue cycling through in light of the aerosol effect. But I don't think it will ever tie in timing wise with the extra water effect.

As far as ENSO goes, the events tend to move like a conveyor belt. Whatever is happening at the surface probably won't persist unless it has mirrored support "up-current".

Western Subsurface +3 months = Eastern Subsurface trend.

Eastern Subsurface trend +3 months = Eastern surface trend.

Eastern surface trend +3 months = Western surface trend. 

Conceptually, October-November 2023 should once again see extraordinarily powerful storms moving across the US, as volcanic periods tend to. But the Fall should be pretty different from last year.  There are a handful of volcanic falls with extraordinarily expansive snow-cover in North America, with much tamer winters that follow. Could see something like that. My instinct is next year will still be a wet/cold winter for CA, but the entire Southern US is cold, rather than the Western US. I don't think we're done with atmospheric rivers until the excess moisture is drained from the sky to at least some degree. Arid climates are designed to handle this type of imbalance I think.

That reminds me of 1992 actually.  We had a very cold fall but the winter was not as cold (but very stormy, the December 1992 noreaster which was the GOAT of noreasters).  Not sure if this summer will be more like 1991 (very hot, record number of 90 degree days) or 1992 (cold summer and very rainy.)

 

On the aerosol issue, could this be spotted in the lack of deep blues in clear skies?  We're getting reports of milky skies on clear days, which is similar to what you see when particulates or aerosols are released into the atmosphere (like from a fire).

 

[thunderbolt]

12 hours ago, Terpeast said:

What is considered to be the line between a strong vs super? +2.5?

El Niño - 26				La Niña - 25
Weak - 11	Moderate - 7	Strong - 5	Very Strong - 3	Weak - 11	Moderate - 6	Strong - 7
1952-53	1951-52	1957-58	1982-83	1954-55	1955-56	1973-74
1953-54	1963-64	1965-66	1997-98	1964-65	1970-71	1975-76
1958-59	1968-69	1972-73	2015-16	1971-72	1995-96	1988-89
1969-70	1986-87	1987-88		1974-75	2011-12	1998-99
1976-77	1994-95	1991-92		1983-84	2020-21	1999-00
1977-78	2002-03			1984-85	2021-22	2007-08
1979-80	2009-10			2000-01		2010-11
2004-05				2005-06
2006-07				2008-09
2014-15				2016-17
2018-19				2017-18
				2022-23

 

[thunderbolt]

1 minute ago, thunderbolt said:

El Niño - 26				La Niña - 25
Weak - 11	Moderate - 7	Strong - 5	Very Strong - 3	Weak - 11	Moderate - 6	Strong - 7
1952-53	1951-52	1957-58	1982-83	1954-55	1955-56	1973-74
1953-54	1963-64	1965-66	1997-98	1964-65	1970-71	1975-76
1958-59	1968-69	1972-73	2015-16	1971-72	1995-96	1988-89
1969-70	1986-87	1987-88		1974-75	2011-12	1998-99
1976-77	1994-95	1991-92		1983-84	2020-21	1999-00
1977-78	2002-03			1984-85	2021-22	2007-08
1979-80	2009-10			2000-01		2010-11
2004-05				2005-06
2006-07				2008-09
2014-15				2016-17
2018-19				2017-18
				2022-23

 

The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has become the de-facto standard that NOAA uses for classifying El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the eastern tropical Pacific.  It is the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW).  Events are defined as 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or above the +0.5o anomaly for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cool (La Niña) events.  The threshold is further broken down into Weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST anomaly), Moderate (1.0 to 1.4), Strong (1.5 to 1.9) and Very Strong (≥ 2.0) events.  For the purpose of this report for an event to be categorized as weak, moderate, strong or very strong it must have equaled or exceeded the threshold for at least 3 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods.

[DarkSharkWX]

nino 1+2 in strong nino territory

[snowman19]

Maybe strong, but I don't see a "super" event.

I doubt super right now too. If it were to go super….easiest winter forecast ever. Predict a torch and hope you get a well timed 15-16 or 82-83 bomb up the coast

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I doubt super right now too. If it were to go super….easiest winter forecast ever. Predict a torch and hope you get a well timed 15-16 or 82-83 bomb up the coast

There is a periodicity to those super events...1972, 1982, 1997, 2015....8 years is too soon.

[etudiant]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is a periodicity to those super events...1972, 1982, 1997, 2015....8 years is too soon.

Why not, the interval was only 10 years '82 - '92.

I see no reason why 8 years would not suffice, so help me understand please.

[Iceresistance]

Nino 3.4 is now above average in SST

[roardog]

1 hour ago, etudiant said:

Why not, the interval was only 10 years '82 - '92.

I see no reason why 8 years would not suffice, so help me understand please.

‘92 wasn’t a super, just strong. He’s talking about Super El Niño. It was only 10 years between the ‘72 and ‘82 Super Nino though.

[roardog]

I wonder if a strong -PDO such as we have now would hamper the development of a very Strong Nino. What was the PDO like before the ‘72 Nino? I know the Pacific was primed and ready for the ‘15-16 Nino.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

El Niño - 26				La Niña - 25
Weak - 11	Moderate - 7	Strong - 5	Very Strong - 3	Weak - 11	Moderate - 6	Strong - 7
1952-53	1951-52	1957-58	1982-83	1954-55	1955-56	1973-74
1953-54	1963-64	1965-66	1997-98	1964-65	1970-71	1975-76
1958-59	1968-69	1972-73	2015-16	1971-72	1995-96	1988-89
1969-70	1986-87	1987-88		1974-75	2011-12	1998-99
1976-77	1994-95	1991-92		1983-84	2020-21	1999-00
1977-78	2002-03			1984-85	2021-22	2007-08
1979-80	2009-10			2000-01		2010-11
2004-05				2005-06
2006-07				2008-09
2014-15				2016-17
2018-19				2017-18
				2022-23

 

2002-03 and 2009-10 were both borderline strong

1977-78 was weak but was functionally a moderate because it was a second year el nino

 

note-- some of our best winters are la ninas that come after el ninos, they have the best combo of cold and moisture

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I doubt super right now too. If it were to go super….easiest winter forecast ever. Predict a torch and hope you get a well timed 15-16 or 82-83 bomb up the coast

Yes those are your favorites lol

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

El Niño - 26				La Niña - 25
Weak - 11	Moderate - 7	Strong - 5	Very Strong - 3	Weak - 11	Moderate - 6	Strong - 7
1952-53	1951-52	1957-58	1982-83	1954-55	1955-56	1973-74
1953-54	1963-64	1965-66	1997-98	1964-65	1970-71	1975-76
1958-59	1968-69	1972-73	2015-16	1971-72	1995-96	1988-89
1969-70	1986-87	1987-88		1974-75	2011-12	1998-99
1976-77	1994-95	1991-92		1983-84	2020-21	1999-00
1977-78	2002-03			1984-85	2021-22	2007-08
1979-80	2009-10			2000-01		2010-11
2004-05				2005-06
2006-07				2008-09
2014-15				2016-17
2018-19				2017-18
				2022-23

 

2010-11 was a strong la nina and was one of our best winters ever, because it was a la nina after an el nino.

as was 1995-96

[raindancewx]

The mountains locally are dressed in their finest with the subtropical jet waking up very quickly. We have the strongest correlations to ENSO in the whole US here. So the cloudiness and late cold are a good sign. All the trees and local vegetation are still dead - something I've not seen this late in the season locally. SOI has flipped negative month to date as well. Suspect this will be the coldest March for us in 20 years or so too. 

Conceptually, our coldest winters are major La Nina that turn to major El Nino with low solar. We don't have that. But our wettest winters are a big Nino 3.4 warming y/y with high solar - which we could have. Actually, truth to be told, years like 1939-40, 1963-64, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1992-93, 1997-98 are all pretty good. March 22-April 5 1973 is legendary here - 23 inches of snow in Albuquerque. Kept snowing into late April too. 1963, 1982, 1991 arguably 1992 in some ways, are the recent "Volcanic El Nino" years. Unfortunately, most years that become El Ninos don't look like this March.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, etudiant said:

Why not, the interval was only 10 years '82 - '92.

I see no reason why 8 years would not suffice, so help me understand please.

Well, the average of those 3 periods is 14.3 years. I will bet against 2.0+ ONI this year, but you think what you will. I  didn't say its impossible...

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, the average of those 3 periods is 14.3 years. I will bet against 2.0+ ONI this year, but you think what you will. I  didn't say its impossible...

what I'm fascinated by is that "strong" is a rare category.... how many "strongs" have we had since 2000?  More than moderate and less than super.

 

no strongs since 1991-92 wow

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what I'm fascinated by is that "strong" is a rare category.... how many "strongs" have we had since 2000?  More than moderate and less than super.

 

no strongs since 1991-92 wow

 

No strong since 1992? That isn't accurate...we've had 97 and 15, which were both over 2.0 ONI...hell, even 2009 edged into strong....

Yea, I mean its not a huge leap of faith to say we probably aren't reaching 2.0 ONI lol 1.5 is much more doable....