El Nino 2023-2024

[snowman19]

That has a warm bias I believe but it did not back down at all. Even if it’s too warm by 1C, that would still be quite a strong nino.

Incorrect. The Australian model does not have a warm bias

[George001]

40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Incorrect. The Australian model does not have a warm bias

In that case it holds even more weight. We are seeing more signs that indicate it’s worth getting excited about this nino, like the rapidly rising PDO, crashing SOI etc. 

[thunderbolt]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

In that case it holds even more weight. We are seeing more signs that indicate it’s worth getting excited about this nino, like the rapidly rising PDO, crashing SOI etc. 

 

2 hours ago, George001 said:

In that case it holds even more weight. We are seeing more signs that indicate it’s worth getting excited about this nino, like the rapidly rising PDO, crashing SOI etc. 

Speaking of the SOI 

[GaWx]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Yesterday's was -43 and today's is -62, which is the lowest since 2/6/10 and 12th lowest since dailies started in June of 1991. Though that will end up the low of this stretch, the next two days will still be strong -SOIs (likely sub -25).

 I was wrong about yesterday being the low of the stretch. Today's -65 was even lower than yesterday's -62! Today's -65 is the 7th lowest daily SOI on record (back to June of 1991). The only ones lower were five days in 1997-8 and one day in 2009-10 (2/5/2010). And keep in mind it is only May 24th, meaning the current Nino is just starting!

**Edit: Though nothing like the rarity now occurring, it now looks like there will be another strong -SOI dip this month with it likely centered on 5/31 near -34.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It has a warm bias now. That forecast is based on June averaging +1.25 C in Nino 3.4. The subsurface and tropical wind patterns don’t support such a high reading. 
 

 Whereas the past years' verifications support snowman19's assertion of a lack of significant warm bias of the BoM, especially compared to many of the other models, I assume you agree that that doesn't mean never too warm but rather a neutral bias when averaged out. So, sometimes too cold, sometimes or even often about right, and sometimes too warm.
 

 Consistent with this, I think you're going to end up correct regarding BoM being too warm for June of 2023 in its May forecast. With 3.4 still only near +0.5 as of last week and with no indication of a rise from there yet, it would appear that 3.4 will start June near +0.5. Based on extrapolating from there, a +1.25 for June as a whole would require much of the mid to late month to be +1.5+.

 

 Even with this SOI plunge and considering your thoughts about the current setup not being consistent with past sub -9 SOI Mays, the odds of 3.4 anomaly warming up a full degree C within two weeks are very low based on the past. For any oncoming El Niño, the fastest anomaly warming within two weeks that I could find was right at 1.0, which was from 3/5/2014 to 3/19/2014. The subsequent week warmed another 0.4 and the week after warmed still another 0.1. So, it warmed 1.5 in just four weeks. That's the kind of warming needed for the May BoM forecast for June to verify and that was a very rare event. Moreover, the starting point of that rise was down at -1.2.

[snowman19]

 Whereas the past years' verifications support snowman19's assertion of a lack of significant warm bias of the BoM, especially compared to many of the other models, I assume you agree that that doesn't mean never too warm but rather a neutral bias when averaged out. So, sometimes too cold, sometimes or even often about right, and sometimes too warm.
 
 Consistent with this, I think you're going to end up correct regarding BoM being too warm for June of 2023 in its May forecast. With 3.4 still only near +0.5 as of last week and with no indication of a rise from there yet, it would appear that 3.4 will start June near +0.5. Based on extrapolating from there, a +1.25 for June as a whole would require much of the mid to late month to be +1.5+.
 
 Even with this SOI plunge and considering your thoughts about the current setup not being consistent with past sub -9 SOI Mays, the odds of 3.4 anomaly warming up a full degree C within two weeks are very low based on the past. For any oncoming El Niño, the fastest anomaly warming within two weeks that I could find was right at 1.0, which was from 3/5/2014 to 3/19/2014. The subsequent week warmed another 0.4 and the week after warmed still another 0.1. So, it warmed 1.5 in just four weeks. That's the kind of warming needed for the May BoM forecast for June to verify and that was a very rare event. Moreover, the starting point of that rise was down at -1.2.

Up until this year, the POAMA did not have a warm bias unlike some other models

[snowman19]

 I was wrong about yesterday being the low of the stretch. Today's -65 was even lower than yesterday's -62! Today's -65 is the 7th lowest daily SOI on record (back to June of 1991). The only ones lower were five days in 1997-8 and one day in 2009-10 (2/5/2010). And keep in mind it is only May 24th, meaning the current Nino is just starting!
**Edit: Though nothing like the rarity now occurring, it now looks like there will be another strong -SOI dip this month with it likely centered on 5/31 near -34.

If nothing else, the atmosphere is definitely primed for El Niño

[Typhoon Tip]

"In reality, global AAM* has become exceptionally high in the last 10 days. High AAM is characteristic of El Niño's atmospheric component."

It is...which is why in part I also mentioned this a while ago, that the atmosphere outside the immediate dispersion domain of the ENSO band (fascinatingly) appears to be outpacing ENSO itself...

I wasn't referring to the Angular Momentum stuff but it's another evidence to the same extents

[Typhoon Tip]

You know ...it sort of exposes the question of whether the long thought/accepted ENSO as a forcing mechanism is really sort of backward in a sense.  It's really like some sort of longer period harmonic in the atmosphere that drives from the outside --> in, and then this generates SST anomalies that than integrate thermocline ...etc..

Interesting conjecture there.  ENSO may then become a positive feedback - or here's a thought...  The ENSO is actually a correction mechanism - oooh.   Like a larger planetary manifold forcing causes "Nina" vs "Nino" conditions, then the ENSO responds by what we empirically measure in the SST and thermoclines, which eventually overwhelms the larger scaled mechanisms that caused ... inevitably leading to the demise of the causality --> the switch.  Which will inexorably leads to an overcompensation in the other direction, and the cycle is sort of periodically resetting between the Nina and Nino states - modulated somehow such that it is irregular in duration. 

 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know ...it sort of exposes the question of whether the long thought/accepted ENSO as a forcing mechanism is really sort of backward in a sense.  It's really like some sort of longer period harmonic in the atmosphere that drives from the outside --> in, and then this generates SST anomalies that than integrate thermocline ...etc..

Interesting conjecture there.  ENSO may then become a positive feedback - or here's a thought...  The ENSO is actually a correction mechanism - oooh.   Like a larger planetary manifold forcing causes "Nina" vs "Nino" conditions, then the ENSO responds by what we empirically measure in the SST and thermoclines, which eventually overwhelms the larger scaled mechanisms that caused ... inevitably leading to the demise of the causality --> the switch. 

 

This, to me, sounds like further validation of the recharge oscillator model for enso. 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This, to me, sounds like further validation of the recharge oscillator model for enso. 

Heh. I didn’t know there was such a model haha
sure - “oscillator model” pretty much exactly sums up what I was after, so why the hell not

I wonder if that kind of oscillator model theory does drive the ENSOs from the outside in

[Typhoon Tip]

But I am presently intrigued by the notion that ENSO modes could actually be the correction mechanism in the grand scheme…

[snowman19]

[csnavywx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The WPAC warm pool must be counteracting the normal El Niño WWB response east of the dateline and stalling the ENSO warming.    Notice how the westerlies haven’t been able to get past 150W. The equatorial region seems to be the only area not experiencing an El Niño-like pattern. But it’s not uncommon to get high AAM states even during La Niña winters in recent years through the MJO and mountain torques. The next trade wind surge in early June should put that POAMA run even further out of reach.
 

 

We'll have to see on that tradewind surge. OP GFS kind of an outlier atm when compared to its own ensembles, EC, EPS, GEM, GEPS.

[thunderbolt]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Up until this year, the POAMA did not have a warm bias unlike some other models

Back in 2015 it’s May prediction it had June said it 1.8 in reality it ended up at 1.2

[snowman19]

Back in 2015 it’s May prediction it had June said it 1.8 in reality it ended up at 1.2

So it was off by 0.6….

[thunderbolt]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

So it was off by 0.6….

So you’re saying .6 is nothing got it 

[snowman19]

https://www.space.com/nasa-spots-sign-of-el-nino-from-space-2023?utm_content=space.com&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=socialflow

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Since I assume climate models change (are tweaked, adjusted, what have you) in 8 years, a warm bias from 2015 may not still exist now.

[raindancewx]

I've been thinking about listing my analog model online for purchase online. Would any of you be interested? You basically type in your expected winter outcomes on seven global variables. Then all years back to 1931 are scored based on a weighted statistical model I developed off of a multi-factor polynomial regression.

The scoring is then sortable, and I have a listing of what each variable corresponds to over the long-term (rain, snow, temps, etc in winter). Since ENSO is important but not dominant in the model, you can get strong scoring matches for ENSO years that are not in the same third of the scale (i.e. a rogue La Nina or Neutral might match this year) in special circumstances. 

Usually there are one or two odd ducklings in the seven variable set. So I pick a fixer year among the medium-level match years to bring the pack to the point of mimicking actual global conditions. The main purpose of the tool is to systematically score years as similar or dissimilar without needing to run through hundreds of maps manually. Knowing the most dissimilar years can actually be useful too, to see if reversing the exact opposite years produces similar matches to the most similar years.

The objective scoring last year had both 1984 and 2016 as strong matches as an example. Pretty cold and severely wet winters in the West, just like we actually saw. 1995 was in there as among the least similar La Ninas, which is part of why I was pretty bullish on a shitty season for snow for most of you in the Northeast.

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Since I assume climate models change (are tweaked, adjusted, what have you) in 8 years, a warm bias from 2015 may not still exist now.

Except for this year 

[GaWx]

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

So it was off by 0.6….

 Although I agree with you that the BoM overall hasn't been strongly warm biased when averaging all recent years unlike several other models such as the Euro, being off 0.6 that year is pretty significant and not something to minimize. I tend to think of errors in forecasts issued in spring of 1/2 degree+ by any model in any one year as significant.

 We have still another very strong -SOI today with -45.

[so_whats_happening]

Only issue I have seen just recently with Bom is the forecast of MJO. Ever since it crossed the 4/5 it has consistently shown a strong MJO wave chugging along through 6/7/8. That has yet to happen in fact as weird as it is the GFS actually hit the nail on the head with the MJO progression thus far. Meaning if Bom was right it would have really set the stage for a powerful El Nino to take hold as it would have likely eroded the trades around the dateline quite substantially as we see it now it still is struggling but not for trying to get past the dateline. We will have a brief 2-3 days here where we see some nice relaxing around the dateline before seemingly having another round of decent trades poking their head in.

Many of the models that predicted a low amplitude MJO wave show it peaking around 1.5-1.9 (maybe briefly into super category but trimonthlies stay in strong category) while Bom is pushing near 2.5 if not close to the strongest warming we have seen. No doubt overall the WWB event got halted around 150E and in fact some forecasts show a westward propagating WWB with trades pushing westward so this would indicate overall VP is still over maritime region with little indication of this heading east. The interesting part about that is we saw the exact same thing happen back in February which led to a weakening of trades and thus a WWB event across the eastern Pac. This could very well happen again which would help again slowly expand the warmer waters westward into 3/3.4, ENSO 4 may be a struggle for awhile. 

If we can manage a nice uptick in 3.4 over the next month or so it gives confidence in a strong event otherwise still moderate may be the way to go for now. As for the PDO talk, while NE Pac has undoubtedly warmed overall the -PDO is not gone. We still have the warm tongue east of Japan and the overall coolness enveloping the the periphery. The biggest shake up to see things move around will be getting rid of that warm tongue, if we can at least start to push toward a neutral mode it stands a chance at topping near strong but otherwise again conflicting signs dont typically work out well.

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Only issue I have seen just recently with Bom is the forecast of MJO. Ever since it crossed the 4/5 it has consistently shown a strong MJO wave chugging along through 6/7/8. That has yet to happen in fact as weird as it is the GFS actually hit the nail on the head with the MJO progression thus far. Meaning if Bom was right it would have really set the stage for a powerful El Nino to take hold as it would have likely eroded the trades around the dateline quite substantially as we see it now it still is struggling but not for trying to get past the dateline. We will have a brief 2-3 days here where we see some nice relaxing around the dateline before seemingly having another round of decent trades poking their head in.

Many of the models that predicted a low amplitude MJO wave show it peaking around 1.5-1.9 (maybe briefly into super category but trimonthlies stay in strong category) while Bom is pushing near 2.5 if not close to the strongest warming we have seen. No doubt overall the WWB event got halted around 150E and in fact some forecasts show a westward propagating WWB with trades pushing westward so this would indicate overall VP is still over maritime region with little indication of this heading east. The interesting part about that is we saw the exact same thing happen back in February which led to a weakening of trades and thus a WWB event across the eastern Pac. This could very well happen again which would help again slowly expand the warmer waters westward into 3/3.4, ENSO 4 may be a struggle for awhile. 

If we can manage a nice uptick in 3.4 over the next month or so it gives confidence in a strong event otherwise still moderate may be the way to go for now. As for the PDO talk, while NE Pac has undoubtedly warmed overall the -PDO is not gone. We still have the warm tongue east of Japan and the overall coolness enveloping the the periphery. The biggest shake up to see things move around will be getting rid of that warm tongue, if we can at least start to push toward a neutral mode it stands a chance at topping near strong but otherwise again conflicting signs dont typically work out well.

JMA did really well, too

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

JMA did really well, too

it sure did

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

[csnavywx]

The PDO signature erosion is overwhelmingly due to the insane ridging over the NW Conus and far W Canada over the past few weeks. More of that likely on the way, however that may not impact the southern half of the signature much at all. Looks relatively cool in the subtropical belt for a while yet, especially if blocking stays anchored well north (as currently forecast).

[thunderbolt]

Still dropping

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

The PDO signature erosion is overwhelmingly due to the insane ridging over the NW Conus and far W Canada over the past few weeks. More of that likely on the way, however that may not impact the southern half of the signature much at all. Looks relatively cool in the subtropical belt for a while yet, especially if blocking stays anchored well north (as currently forecast).

Yeah...I'm not sure how superficial the PDO modulations we have been observing really are ( or not...).  They could easily be explained by transient pattern-related sea-surface wind stressing... Perhaps we are heading into a +PNA summer?  ... still, as June ages onward, the R-wave coherency may limit that suggestion up there and some of the wind patterning may move toward a boreal summer footprint and the SS goes with it.  Not sure -