El Nino 2023-2024

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 We finally reached the coldest normal mean of any day in the Arctic, Feb 25th. Compare that to mid to late Jan for a good portion of the US, including the SE. For about the next two weeks, the daily normals only very slow warm and are still only near Jan normals. Only afterward (after Mar 10) the warming of normals accelerates. There have been many winters when the coldest Arctic day was in Mar, especially recently.

Very interesting that, that's when the N. Pacific High has been fluxing:

This 7-year trend now, is record breaking ('64-69 -NAO comes in 2nd, at 80% of the anomaly).

2-months including March is also record breaking for a 6/7 year stretch. 

[Terpeast]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Very interesting that, that's when the N. Pacific High has been fluxing:

This 7-year trend now, is record breaking ('64-69 -NAO comes in 2nd, at 80% of the anomaly).

2-months including March is also record breaking for a 6/7 year stretch. 

Predominately La Nina pattern

[raindancewx]

February in the US looks like a pretty classic hot EPO & El Nino "east / east-central" temperature profile to me. Even the stupid little correlation break over Western Montana is there. The strongest correlation is for warmth in the North Central US. The lightest blues / lightest greens are not super relevant correlations. But they do paint a fairly accurate picture of what to expect.

I find that in periods of rapidly changing ENSO conditions, the +/- WPO correlations tend to take over for US temperature profiles. The CFS has been trending to a classic +WPO look for March for temps. The WPO tends to send pretty powerful systems in the West, and they occasionally make it into the South with puddles of cold air. The cold generally gets to the Northeast last and in dire straights, and so that part of the country ends up warmest compared to means. It's dead on to the stronger +WPO looks. I've already looked, and there actually are several El Ninos that look like February 2024 with duller warmth that go to the projected March 2024 look. So it looks more or less right to me.

I think people generally associate the WPO/EPO as kind of the same thing. But in reality, the EPO is rarely much of a signal for the West, that's how you know it is the West Pacific high/low orientation by the dateline driving the pattern.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, no argument from me on that for March. Looks toasty here.

[Itryatgolf70]

On 2/21/2024 at 10:34 AM, GaWx said:

It wasn’t just the extended models that failed badly. Failing that far out isn’t at all unusual due to low skill. But look at how badly the GEFS (other models were similar) busted with the very strong -AO predictions made 2/6-8 for 2/13-20:

2/6 predicted -3.5

2/7 predicted -3.0

2/8 predicted -3.2

 

2/6 AO prediction: -3.5 for 2/13-20 (all days sub -3.0!)

 

 

Actual AO: -0.6 for 2/13-20 (2/16-20 all ended up above all 30 2/6 prediction’s members!)(2/20 ended up +2 vs -3 progs!)

 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.gefs.z1000.120days.csv

Larry, I have a question. Did the eps do good with the ao forecast? Typically, it usually has a good handle on teleconnections from what I've noticed.

[Itryatgolf70]

If the niña is east based this next winter, I feel we will have a few strong cold shots. If it's more central based, may be more difficult. 

[raindancewx]

We're really starting to see the handiwork of the Super +WPO again.

I've been telling people for six months here, the closer we get to March, the crazier the weather gets. You can see we're almost there. Plenty of heat in TX. https://twitter.com/MattHinesTX/status/1762276038665457919/photo/1

3-9 feet of snow for California in two days, starting Thursday.

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Larry, I have a question. Did the eps do good with the ao forecast? Typically, it usually has a good handle on teleconnections from what I've noticed.

0Z AO forecasts for 2/13-20

2/6: GEFS -3.5; EPS: -3.2

2/7: GEFS -3.0; EPS: -2.8

2/8: GEFS -3.2; EPS: -2.5

2/9: GEFS -2.7; EPS: -2.5

2/10: GEFS -2.2; EPS: -2.1

2/12: GEFS -1.2; EPS: -1.1

Actual for 2/13-20: -0.6

Although both did horribly, the EPS was slightly less horrible. I’d go F for GEFS (avg miss -2.0) and F+ for EPS (avg miss -1.8)

[FPizz]

Did the trimonthly get to 2.0 for this to be super?  I feel like I've seen both listed elsewhere.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

Did the trimonthly get to 2.0 for this to be super?  I feel like I've seen both listed elsewhere.

It did. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Since 1948, The 4 times we had a OND ONI +2.0 or greater, we had a La Nina the following OND. One of those was the strongest La Nina on record (1973). 

[Itryatgolf70]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

0Z AO forecasts for 2/13-20

2/6: GEFS -3.5; EPS: -3.2

2/7: GEFS -3.0; EPS: -2.8

2/8: GEFS -3.2; EPS: -2.5

2/9: GEFS -2.7; EPS: -2.5

2/10: GEFS -2.2; EPS: -2.1

2/12: GEFS -1.2; EPS: -1.1

Actual for 2/13-20: -0.6

Although both did horribly, the EPS was slightly less horrible. I’d go F for GEFS (avg miss -2.0) and F+ for EPS (avg miss -1.8)

That's shocking that the eps busted that bad! I guess the strat didn't connect to the troposphere. It usually does but not this time.

[raindancewx]

Just for future reference - the area of the world that was coldest (v. local means) this winter was NE Russia. Looks very much like the WPO drove the winter pattern in Asia and North America as much as anything.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Just for future reference - the area of the world that was coldest (v. local means) this winter was NE Russia. Looks very much like the WPO drove the winter pattern in Asia and North America as much as anything.

Don't have a problem with this assessment based upon observed pattern behavior - persistence therein. 

Trough attenuation tendency, while passing embedded waves through the PNA domain, has been a big issue in failing cyclogen potential (it's actually been true in recent years ). East of ~110 W across the mid latitude continent, there's been a leitmotif where modeled features are too amplified out in time, becoming less as the outlook intervals cross into mid and eventually shorter ranges.  

A lot of that can be explained by local hemisphere index modes. Example, trying to relay an important S/W through an unfavorable PNAP circulation mode, is inherently a negative (destructive) interference.  However, this bias in modeling is noted in +PNA modes, too, when convention implies constructive feed-back should actually increase wave amplitude.

As conjecture, it's a nice intuitive explanation. That the R-wave mechanics, extinguishing the farther down stream from the far E Asian distribution into W Pacific circulation mode we look, is "abandoning" the pattern ( so to speak ...) so S/W mechanics are getting an 'implied' canceling effect from the non-linear function.   Lot of long words but that's what that would be... Metaphor (maybe) is like a wave in the ocean lowering in altitude when it moves back into a deeper water - dropping the floor out from underneath starts canceling the wave amplitude.

It also fits the increased frequency of apparent partial decoupling of the ENSO states wrt to the behavior of the mid latitude westerlies.  If an upstream signal is dominating and happens to be sending an R-wave distribution down stream that is no longer in concert, ... we start hearing a lot more people saying, '... the pattern 'doesn't look very (Nino)(Nina) like'.  Meanwhile, ...we look at the verified distribution of precipitation and temperature anomalies and there's still going to be some vestigial complement to the correlation there - we're not talking absolutes.   The maelstrom of the planet is an integrated ambrosia of different eddy forcing sources, in different quantities, changing in time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyone have a good link for WPO data?

This date on this site doesn't seem to be avilable right now...

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/wp.shtml

[raindancewx]

I'm not crazy for thinking the CFS has March 1973 right? I mean...that's an insane month for the West if it even comes to verifying. Top five for snow in the past 100 years I'd guess regionally. It does look like the North Pacific high pressure feature is off in terms of placement east/west, and maybe a touch north of 1973. But it really does look close to March 1973 to me. At this range, the CFS actually has skill for the next month too. It's done pretty well this winter actually.

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I'm not crazy for thinking the CFS has March 1973 right? I mean...that's an insane month for the West if it even comes to verifying. Top five for snow in the past 100 years I'd guess regionally. It does look like the North Pacific high pressure feature is off in terms of placement east/west, and maybe a touch north of 1973. But it really does look close to March 1973 to me. At this range, the CFS actually has skill for the next month too. It's done pretty well this winter actually.

I have noticed the CFS on weatherbell is hell-bent on a cold snap in late March and early April, as are the Euro weeklies. As we all know, the weeklies have been terrible this season, but early spring cold snaps are common in the always mild strong El Nino winter's here. So I wonder if there is merit to that this year? March 1973 was a torch until a big snowstorm hit Michigan St. Patrick's Day.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone have a good link for WPO data?

This date on this site doesn't seem to be avilable right now...

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/wp.shtml

Here's an alternative page:

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I'm not crazy for thinking the CFS has March 1973 right? I mean...that's an insane month for the West if it even comes to verifying. Top five for snow in the past 100 years I'd guess regionally. It does look like the North Pacific high pressure feature is off in terms of placement east/west, and maybe a touch north of 1973. But it really does look close to March 1973 to me. At this range, the CFS actually has skill for the next month too. It's done pretty well this winter actually.

Not at all...I doubled up on 1973 for March in my Outlook from November.

March Analogs: 1966,1973(X2),1977,1983,1987, 2007, 2010(X2), 2016

[donsutherland1]

38 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have noticed the CFS on weatherbell is hell-bent on a cold snap in late March and early April, as are the Euro weeklies. As we all know, the weeklies have been terrible this season, but early spring cold snaps are common in the always mild strong El Nino winter's here. So I wonder if there is merit to that this year? March 1973 was a torch until a big snowstorm hit Michigan St. Patrick's Day.

The CFSv2 has had a March 1973-esque pattern since just after the middle of February.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59981-february-2024/?do=findComment&comment=7232213

While such a pattern has not been a snowy one for parts of southern New England and the Middle Atlantic States, the Great Lakes Region has fared better with a big snowstorm just after mid-March (10.1" in Detroit during March 16-18). It will be interesting to see how the pattern evolves this time around.

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have noticed the CFS on weatherbell is hell-bent on a cold snap in late March and early April, as are the Euro weeklies. As we all know, the weeklies have been terrible this season, but early spring cold snaps are common in the always mild strong El Nino winter's here. So I wonder if there is merit to that this year? March 1973 was a torch until a big snowstorm hit Michigan St. Patrick's Day.

That sucker went deep at 500 mb.  

That pattern during the week preceding did bear some resemblance to what's been modeled for/during the first couple of weeks of this March.   

4 days prior to the 17th, 1973

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's an alternative page:

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Do you have one for the monthly values?

[michsnowfreak]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That sucker went deep at 500 mb.  

That pattern during the week preceding did bear some resemblance to what's been modeled for/during the first couple of weeks of this March.   

4 days prior to the 17th, 1973

 

March 16-18, 1973 total snowfall:

Toledo, OH: 4.0"

Detroit: 10.1"

Flint: 14.3"

Saginaw: 21.7"

 

Despite that incredible storm, March 1973 stands as the 6th warmest on record for Detroit (behind only 2012, 1945, 1946, 2000, & 1910).

The first half of March (thru the 15th) in 1973 is by far the warmest on record at Detroit, a full 2.5F warmer than 2nd place 2012.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you have one for the monthly values?

Unfortunately, I don’t.

[raindancewx]

Google is your friend.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/wp.data

[Chinook]

Here are my 250mb wind loops for fall/winter.

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Sep_1_18_2023_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Sep_17_30_2023_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Oct_1_15_2023_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Oct_16_31_2023_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Nov_1_15_2023_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Nov_16_30_2023_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Dec_1_10_2023_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Dec_11_20_2023_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Dec_21_31_2023_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Jan_1_17_2024_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Jan_17_31_2024_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Feb_1_15_2024_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Feb_16_29_2024_250mb_loop.html

 I made all the loops because I wanted to know what was happening far out in the Pacific, and I wanted to organize it so that others can learn from it.

Here are 250mb and 850mb wind anomalies for nearly all of meteorological winter up to a couple of days ago. It looks like the 850mb winds were more likely to transport moisture towards California and Oregon. Otherwise, I think the 250mb wind anomalies are pretty standard for El Nino, but you guys can comment if you want to.

 

[raindancewx]

Canadian is a bit different from the CFS. The absence of heights by Japan is a major change from the winter and should come with some colder systems and/or late Nor'easters for the East Coast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Canadian is a bit different from the CFS. The absence of heights by Japan is a major change from the winter and should come with some colder systems and/or late Nor'easters for the East Coast.

I saw that...at this point, I'll believe it when I see it.

[raindancewx]

Remember how I said there would be an incredibly powerful storm around March 1? Check out the blizzard over California the past two days. Welcome to March.

 

[raindancewx]

I've always found it a bit silly to look for a 500 mb profile in ENSO that is typical, and to complain that anything that doesn't match that profile is atypical. It's much more common for ENSO events to go to a temperature profile that matches the typical / atypical idea in comparison to the 500 mb profile.

You essentially had the normal warm North / cool South look from this El Nino, regardless of how you got to it, plus maybe a bit more coolness for the Northwest with the -PDO. 

I'd be more willing to agree with your assessment if the subtropical jet had failed to be strong. But that actually is a direct physical response to ENSO, and it was there. The mid-lattitude stuff that people look for is essentially over fitting trend lines and history in a lot of ways.

[George001]

I’m with Raindance on this. The typical strong Nino response in New England is warm and wet, and well….. it was both a historically warm and historically wet winter here. The overfitting analogy is a great one, it’s easy to think deeper analysis = better, but it doesn’t necessarily work that way. When you are training machine learning models, your accuracy actually begins decreasing after a certain point because the model begins to capture the noise rather than capture the overall trend line. It’s the same idea with this, sometimes the best way to look at it is to zoom out and look at the large scale temp and precip profiles rather than over analyze every 500mb nuance. Just to be clear, I am as guilty as anyone of overanalyzing the 500mb, so im not saying this to take a dig at others.