El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

Chuck, good job with your MidAtlantic/NE forecasts.
 I have this winter as basinwide/cross between EP and CP as 1+2 fell sharply before winter and 3 has been about same as 3.4. In addition, 4 has been quite warm vs its own climo.
 Also, an argument can be made that this was a moderate if one were basing this on either the RONI peak of only +1.49:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

or on the MEI peak of only +1.1:

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

 

It was basin-wide. no doubt....not that it matters....just for grouping moving forward.

[so_whats_happening]

On 2/17/2024 at 6:00 PM, mitchnick said:

Anybody still watching the 10mb for SSW? Today EPS show it happening in a few days, recovering briefly, then switching direction again for an extended period. That's crazy.

We are nearing the typical final warming and destruction of the SPV so that makes sense. If I remember correctly it takes place around mid march to mid April some years earlier some later. Although im not sure this bout toward mid march will do all too much later on we should see a brief cooling take place the first week of March from the current weakening. Maybe we can pull out a last minute surprise?? but im banking on most for about 40N southward being virtually done with winter besides a cold shot. 

[michsnowfreak]

20 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Today’s Eps still has the official wind reversal in a day or two, then after a brief recovery, has the winds reversing again around 3/5 and staying under the 0 m/s line thru the end of the run around 4/3! And I thought yesterday's run was crazy.

The cfs and euro weeklies, terrible as they have been, are insistent on mid-March cold. Im hoping it can spin up one of those mid-late March strong Nino snowstorms lol. 

[raindancewx]

The GFS earlier today had the look that I call the "legendary pattern" in the 2/29-3/2 period locally. Big cold high over Wyoming, with a potent low off Baja. Both got stuck for 2-3 days, and sent wave after wave of moisture with feet of snow for the high terrain locally. Its gone now, but that's what I've been looking for in March, it's the only way to get days of heavy snow here.

The weeklies also had Nino 3.4 down to 28.0. Once we get to March, Nino 3.4 has a much warmer baseline. So by temperature, the basin is cooling quickly, even as it should be warming. The El Nino is ending pretty quickly. Subsurface is long dead too.

[brooklynwx99]

this is so odd... flat, strong Aleutian high in a super Nino at the end of Feb. even the warm stretches in 1973 and 1983 were warm because of a hyperactive Gulf of AK low, not because of a potent Aleutian ridge

[brooklynwx99]

hell, even the great pattern that developed in mid-Jan looked like a blocky Nina pattern. there was a historic cold outbreak in the Rockies, which is not supposed to happen in these borderline super Ninos. something is off

this might look like a super Nino on the DJF temp aggregate, but it's like getting a multiple choice answer right without showing work. Dec is the only stretch that behaved like it should have. like where the hell is the low in the GoAK or Aleutians at all? it just doesn't exist on the mean

 

[brooklynwx99]

all of the other super Ninos had at least some kind of persistent low pressure in the GoA or nearby. seems like 1973 was the best fit, but this year still has much less of a signature there

[Terpeast]

@brooklynwx99 My best guess as I’ve said in another thread is that the pac jet was shoved northward by the marine heat wave off Japan. 

Physically it makes sense to me. Heights increase above that heat wave, jet goes over instead of under, and breaks up any aleutian low before it even forms. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Another absolutely exemplary job by @raindancewx...best outlook, again. While I certainly do not appreciate all of the absurd accusations of plagarizing his work that have been made against me, at the end of the day I defer to the scoreboard and try to keep my subjective character evaluations out of it.

I am pretty happy with my diagnosis of the polar domain and ENSO, once again....but much like last year, the polar fields were just not a big driver. I need to work on diagnosis of the extra tropical Pacific and which side of the globe the cold will load on at the seasonal level. I would definitely be interested in purchasing some of Raindance's formulas on that because he seems to have a good handle on it.

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

all of the other super Ninos had at least some kind of persistent low pressure in the GoA or nearby. seems like 1973 was the best fit, but this year still has much less of a signature there

1. RONI max through NDJ: 2023-4 doesn’t fit in as it is only borderline moderate/strong

2023-4: +1.49

2015-6: +2.39

1997-8: +2.35

1982-3: +2.53

1972-3: +2.26

2. MEI max through DJ: 2023-4 doesn’t fit in as it is only low end moderate

2023-4: +1.1

2015-6: +2.2

1997-8: +2.2

1982-3: +2.6

1972-3: +1.9

 

RONI data: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

 

MEI data: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here is what the El Nino was doing before the Winter.. 

[LibertyBell]

On 2/16/2024 at 8:41 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Especially because of the uptick in global SSTs in general, I always thought 0.2-3 should be subtracted to make it more even with everything. 

The precipitable water though.. It's #1 of all the years/Strong Nino's since 1948, beating #2 (15-16) by a good 20%.  In pre-satellite data, some people use precipitable water to assess ENSO event strengths. 

Precipitable water also increases because of CC though

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Precipitable water also increases because of CC though

 

Believe it or not, the lowest year on record (since 1948) was 1995-6

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Believe it or not, the lowest year on record (since 1948) was 1995-6

and also one of the coldest/snowiest.

I remember the summer of 1995 was extremely hot and extremely dry with widespread fires on the east coast.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Believe it or not, the lowest year on record (since 1948) was 1995-6

It helps to offset that when its so cold that everything that does fall is snow from RIC points northward.  There was also plenty of luck, too, I'm sure.

[Typhoon Tip]

On 2/18/2024 at 4:42 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

More useless SSW with all of the cold in Eurasia....yay.

I suspect the warm plumes that are materializing in the modeled 5, 10 .. 30hpa levels might be more caused by streamline forcing over (near/NW) of the Swiss Alps, as a deep western European trough activity is modeled.  There's going to be elevating WAA occasionally delivered to higher atitudes immediately downstream of that phenomenon, anyway, but I wonder if it would enough alone; the forced ascent over the tall terrain bulges the tropospause and enhances, giving the allusion to something more in line with planetary wave intrusion.  

This appears similar to me, to what took place earlier this winter.  It might not reflect the latter larger scaled planetary wave forcing as actually taking place.  Sometimes we see a bright infrared cloud pattern over and immediately downstream of cordilleras? They're there so long as streamline continues to be force to elevation over the terrain.  And, it can bulge the atmosphere to miles over even middling elevation mountain ridges. 

We know that planetary wave intrusion, at that scale, is needed to trigger the subsequent downward vertical motion field post the warm temperature 'burst' occurring ( hallmark of the arrival..). The wind direction reversal endemic with all that.  But like early this season ...this latter activity wasn't abundantly clearly/coherently observed, and despite the exuberance of the posting social media-sphere (ha).   These warm nodes I'm seeing in the 5 10 and 30 levels ( relative to normal thereof) appear more randomly distributed. 

I just suspect that what we are seeing is another terrain enhanced allusion to a phenomenon that may not be capable of triggering the total mechanical circuitry of the SSW, that which would lead to lower troposphere ( eventual) responses.

But it's also important to realize the partiality of these events, too.  It's less likely an all or nothing. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I suspect the warm plumes that are materializing in the modeled 5, 10 .. 30hpa levels might be more caused by streamline forcing over (near/NW) of the Swiss Alps, as a deep western European trough activity is modeled.  There's going to be elevating WAA occasionally delivered to higher atitudes immediately downstream of that phenomenon, anyway, but I wonder if it would enough alone; the forced ascent over the tall terrain bulges the tropospause and enhances, giving the allusion to something more in line with planetary wave intrusion.  

This appears similar to me, to what took place earlier this winter.  It might not reflect the latter larger scaled planetary wave forcing as actually taking place.  Sometimes we see a bright infrared cloud pattern over and immediately downstream of cordilleras? They're there so long as streamline continues to be force to elevation over the terrain.  And, it can bulge the atmosphere to miles over even middling elevation mountain ridges. 

We know that planetary wave intrusion, at that scale, is needed to trigger the subsequent downward vertical motion field post the warm temperature 'burst' occurring ( hallmark of the arrival..). The wind direction reversal endemic with all that.  But like early this season ...this latter activity wasn't abundantly clearly/coherently observed, and despite the exuberance of the posting social media-sphere (ha).   These warm nodes I'm seeing in the 5 10 and 30 levels ( relative to normal thereof) appear more randomly distributed. 

I just suspect that what we are seeing is another terrain enhanced allusion to a phenomenon that may not be capable of triggering the total mechanical circuitry of the SSW, that would eventually lead to lower troposphere ( eventual) responses.

But it's also important to realize the partiality of these events, too.  It's less likely an all or nothing. 

 

I'm just simply resigened to the fact that it just isn't plausible for any physical mechanism to trigger anything desirable to those on the east coast for the balance of this season.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm just simply resigened to the fact that it just isn't plausible for any physical mechanism to trigger anything desirable to those on the east coast for the balance of this season.

heh... notwithstanding our personal religions on the matter, either.   lol

[GaWx]

It wasn’t just the extended models that failed badly. Failing that far out isn’t at all unusual due to low skill. But look at how badly the GEFS (other models were similar) busted with the very strong -AO predictions made 2/6-8 for 2/13-20:

2/6 predicted -3.5

2/7 predicted -3.0

2/8 predicted -3.2

 

2/6 AO prediction: -3.5 for 2/13-20 (all days sub -3.0!)

 

 

Actual AO: -0.6 for 2/13-20 (2/16-20 all ended up above all 30 2/6 prediction’s members!)(2/20 ended up +2 vs -3 progs!)

 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.gefs.z1000.120days.csv

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It helps to offset that when its so cold that everything that does fall is snow from RIC points northward.  There was also plenty of luck, too, I'm sure.

outrageous amounts of blocking and the kind of CONUS cold we rarely see anymore.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Let me know what you guys think...here is what I had for DM vs reality through 2/19:

 

[GaWx]

GLAAM prediction fwiw from CFS ens: goes slightly negative for next 10 days followed by a rise to weak/moderate positive mid to late March meaning an attempt of one last El Niñoish pattern then?

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

GLAAM prediction fwiw from CFS ens: goes slightly negative for next 10 days followed by a rise to weak/moderate positive mid to late March meaning an attempt of one last El Niñoish pattern then?

What is the link to that?

[GaWx]

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is the link to that?

https://atlas.niu.edu/forecast/aam/cfsv2_aam_fcst_current.png

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is the link to that?

It's one of the reasons why I mentioned to y'all over in the New England forum that I suspect spring is above normal - as in above the background climate signal to do so anyway.

I do still believe however that mid march may experience a bit of regression over eastern continental mid latitude, after an interval of balm earlier in the month.  

Seasonal forecasting is not my forte - I duff my hat to you guys.   That said, GLAAM isn't the only reason why I suspect that progression. The NAO domain may slip negative for a time and not appreciably weight the "GLobal" totality of the AAM.  Afterward ... global heat burst part deux may already be underway by the end of the month - we'll see if our summer gets stunted for high temperatures again by converging SW Atlantic with Gulf inflow streams causing theta-e pooling like last piece of dung summer.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Let me know what you guys think...here is what I had for DM vs reality through 2/19:

After the next few weeks, the Pacific is going to look nothing like that. You underestimated the PDO. You'll score really high in the Atlantic. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

After the next few weeks, the Pacific is going to look nothing like that. You underestimated the PDO. You'll score really high in the Atlantic. 

Looks good right now, but I will take another look in the spring. Maybe you are right, but I will say that my March composite is pretty mild in the east.

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's one of the reasons why I mentioned to y'all over in the New England forum that I suspect spring is above normal - as in above the background climate signal to do so anyway.

I do still believe however that mid march may experience a bit of regression over eastern continental mid latitude, after an interval of balm earlier in the month.  

Seasonal forecasting is not my forte - I duff my hat to you guys.   That said, GLAAM isn't the only reason why I suspect that progression. The NAO domain may slip negative for a time and not appreciably weight the "GLobal" totality of the AAM.  Afterward ... global heat burst part deux may already be underway by the end of the month - we'll see if our summer gets stunted for high temperatures again by converging SW Atlantic with Gulf inflow streams causing theta-e pooling like last piece of dung summer.

right so April and May are very warm? that would follow the pattern of the last 2 springs, and dry too

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

right so April and May are very warm? that would follow the pattern of the last 2 springs, and dry too

Northern hemisphere has been on fire for a considerable period of time...bet the lunch money on above normal temps.

[GaWx]

 We finally reached the coldest normal mean of any day in the Arctic, Feb 25th. Compare that to mid to late Jan for a good portion of the US, including the SE. For about the next two weeks, the daily normals only very slow warm and are still only near Jan normals. Only afterward (after Mar 10) the warming of normals accelerates. There have been many winters when the coldest Arctic day was in Mar, especially recently.