40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 19 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Still super 2.0 rounded, everyone here told him no chance and he stuck with his guns, props! Most of the people against it had it like just under....I don't really see the big deal. He was saying like over 2.3 for a while. That is what I thought was foolish. But yea....it barely finished above my 1.9 range from June. And technically, it didn't reach 2.0. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. There's a chance this SSW extends that into the first half of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 6 hours ago, GaWx said: That he did. So, congrats @snowman19for that! This one is just like 1965-6, which peaked at +1.98. That one is often left out of the “super” peaking group even though it also rounded to 2.0. Not that it matters wx wise. Edit: for wx though, RONI may matter more. and this is why I'm gungho about next winter even if it is a la nina, la ninas after el ninos do very well around here and 1966-67 was a very good winter (it wasn't a la nina but it was close to being one, and we have several other la ninas after el ninos that did really well here.) I also believe the upcoming summer will be very hot and drier than normal, which also happens after big el ninos. I love that combo! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 If the extended 2/3 10 mb forecast along with the most recent CFS 12 run ensemble 2m temperature means in addition to recent Euro Weeklies are any indication of what’s to come, we may very well be getting a cold first half of March at a bare minimum! The mean 10 mb wind never recovers over +7 after not getting below +30 in mid to late Feb on the Jan 25 run!! That 1/25 run had a mere 3% chance for a Feb reversal and now it is 75%+! I’ll delete this image very soon as it is way too large to keep here considering the attachment limits: 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Most of the people against it had it like just under....I don't really see the big deal. He was saying like over 2.3 for a while. That is what I though was foolish. But yea....it barely finished above my 1.9 range from June. And technically, it didn't reach 2.0. Let’s call it a wash. The rounded trimonthly ONI is +2.0C for NDJ, unrounded is +1.97C (difference of 0.3). While the CPC is still going to list it as an official super El Niño, we’ll call it basically a wash in the contest 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Looking ahead to next year, I'm personally rooting for as strong a Niña as possible. Why? I would like to see if that AN pool in the western Pac at 30c or more Bluewave has referenced along with the AN Indian Ocean temps get wiped out, will that make a difference with the MJO/US temps in general. Additionally, strong Niñas often cool other oceans somewhat. The current world sea surface temps and SSTA are attached. You can see the +30c waters in the western Pac east of Australia. They were a bit warmer a month ago, but this is good enough. Next I attached the Cansips latest run for 1/25 and then the Cfs for 11/24 since that's as far as the current forecast goes. You can see the 30c+ area has cooled a lot on both models as well as the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. I'm sure if I screwed up the area Bluewave was referring to, he can correct me. But I think I got it right for the most part. Assuming we do get those ocean temps to cool, we may still have to wait another year, God willing, to see results and then hope they don't rise again! Lol In any event, it'll be interesting the results next winter assuming the Cansips and Cfs forecasts are close to being right. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Looking ahead to next year, I'm personally rooting for as strong a Niña as possible. Why? I would like to see if that AN pool in the western Pac at 30c or more Bluewave has referenced along with the AN Indian Ocean temps get wiped out, will that make a difference with the MJO/US temps in general. Additionally, strong Niñas often cool other oceans somewhat. The current world sea surface temps and SSTA are attached. You can see the +30c waters in the western Pac east of Australia. They were a bit warmer a month ago, but this is good enough. Next I attached the Cansips latest run for 1/25 and then the Cfs for 11/24 since that's as far as the current forecast goes. You can see the 30c+ area has cooled a lot on both models as well as the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. I'm sure if I screwed up the area Bluewave was referring to, he can correct me. But I think I got it right for the most part. Assuming we do get those ocean temps to cool, we may still have to wait another year, God willing, to see results and then hope they don't rise again! Lol In any event, it'll be interesting the results next winter assuming the Cansips and Cfs forecasts are close to being right. I concur but I wouldn't want it getting strong. Getting a weak to moderate la nina might enhance our snowfall chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I concur but I wouldn't want it getting strong. Getting a weak to moderate la nina might enhance our snowfall chances. Well, I'm willing to sacrifice next year if necessary. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Most of the people against it had it like just under....I don't really see the big deal. He was saying like over 2.3 for a while. That is what I though was foolish. But yea....it barely finished above my 1.9 range from June. And technically, it didn't reach 2.0. Yeah, I don't think he deserves any credit. He was saying 2.3 for so long, and there's always the "broken clock is right twice a day" thing. Just like I was off on the ONI prediction and my call for an early peak. It peaked much later, and I was about 0.2 too low. But I based my outlook on the MEI, which last I checked was 1.1. I still don't know if the MEI is a good seasonal forecasting tool though, maybe RONI is better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Looking ahead to next year, I'm personally rooting for as strong a Niña as possible. Why? I would like to see if that AN pool in the western Pac at 30c or more Bluewave has referenced along with the AN Indian Ocean temps get wiped ou Good theory, which may well be tested next winter. But I don't think a super nina will help with the west pacific warm pool. The trades will just concentrate all those warm waters and push down the thermocline even deeper. Then it'd be hard for even cloudiness and convection to cool those waters, even if it sustains itself long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 GLAAM prediction from CFS ensemble is saying we’re probably headed to solid +/Nino pattern 2/15+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2024 at 6:04 AM, snowman19 said: Let’s call it a wash. The rounded trimonthly ONI is +2.0C for NDJ, unrounded is +1.97C (difference of 0.3). While the CPC is still going to list it as an official super El Niño, we’ll call it basically a wash in the contest Nah, you were right and I was wrong on not reaching 2.0. All I am saying is that the upper bounds of my range was 1.9, so I never thought it was far fetched. The 2.3+ stuff that you were originally suggesting is what I thought was laughable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Look how much we recently lost the warm subsurface anomalies https://ibb.co/tX8w6Pj Big disconnect between the surface and subsurface right now (+1.9/0.0) The start of the end of the El Nino, after a few weeks it should probably start to sharply drop to more Neutral conditions by the Spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/2/2024 at 3:12 PM, GaWx said: Groundhog weeklies say spring may be awhile: mean dips to +11. A week ago the 1/26 run had only 3 midmonth reversals with the mean dipping only to +31! Today’s extended EPS mean drops to a mere +4 (vs +11 two days ago and +31 nine days ago) with numerous members having a major SSW. Also, like is the case on the extended GEFS, the SPV is now much weaker than normal from mid Feb into March. The chance for a cold E US March continues to increase! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Today’s extended EPS mean drops to a mere +4 (vs +11 two days ago and +31 nine days ago) with numerous members having a major SSW. Also, like is the case on the extended GEFS, the SPV is now much weaker than normal from mid Feb into March. The chance for a cold E US March continues to increase! Surprising how the Gefs and Geps saw the warming first at 10mb as per my post of 1/24 @ you. Eps was uncharacteristically late to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 8 hours ago, Terpeast said: Good theory, which may well be tested next winter. But I don't think a super nina will help with the west pacific warm pool. The trades will just concentrate all those warm waters and push down the thermocline even deeper. Then it'd be hard for even cloudiness and convection to cool those waters, even if it sustains itself long term. Cansips and Cfs do show a good portion (again, based on my understanding of the area Bluewave highlighted) getting to or a little BN as they both show a strong Niña. He!!, if we need it to go super Niña, let's do it. The atmosphere is always adjusting back and forth to reach neutral so I would think it will happen eventually, so why not next year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 hours ago, mitchnick said: Surprising how the Gefs and Geps saw the warming first at 10mb as per my post of 1/24 @ you. Eps was uncharacteristically late to the party. Also, GEFS has been better than GEPS. Interestingly though, 0Z GEFS today (2/4) has backed off slightly on an actual reversal with a lowest mean just above zero vs -2 on the 0Z 2/3 run. Also, it’s mean though still low edges back up to +9 later vs staying under +7 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/10/2023 at 8:26 AM, Great Snow 1717 said: I'll take my chances with a La/EL Nothing...people hoping for an El Nino next winter are playing with "fire"... I'll stand with what I wrote on 2/10/2023 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 This is how the pattern has looked so far globally for the winter. I'd say I had the right idea - I thought you'd have the +WPO look, with the blues dipping by the West Coast. Not quite the right severity. The upper air pattern is at least somewhat consistent with dueling cold pockets West & South, as there have been moments when the blues have moved directly over the West. Those heights south of Hawaii and by Japan are usually bad for sustained eastern snow/cold I find. My raw analog blend for winter overall was 1951-52 (x3), 1972-73, 1982-83 (x3), 1991-92, 1997-98, 2009-10, -1993-94. This is why I think 500mb stuff is so dumb sometimes. I had the right idea for North America, but it will be a terrible forecast at the ground level - i.e. for snow, temps and precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/4/2024 at 11:09 PM, GaWx said: Also, GEFS has been better than GEPS. Interestingly though, 0Z GEFS today (2/4) has backed off slightly on an actual reversal with a lowest mean just above zero vs -2 on the 0Z 2/3 run. Also, it’s mean though still low edges back up to +9 later vs staying under +7 yesterday. 1. After having backed off the last couple of days with the lowest mean only down to +7 yesterday, the 0Z 2/6 GEFS mean low now drops to the lowest yet for mid-month, -4. Also, the GEPS dropped from +6 to -9, where the GFS also is. FNMOC dropped from +2 to -4. These models are suggesting the major SSW date/reversal would likely be within 2/15-17. 2. The new Euro Weeklies also have its lowest yet by far after having backed off slightly yesterday, when the mean rose back from a lowest of +4 two days ago to +8 yesterday. Today’s is down to -1 and also is its weakest yet from then through well into Mar, increasing the chance for a cold E US March. The members are suggesting a most likely reversal date of 2/16-18. Note that the mean hugs the 0 line for over a week! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 It was interesting to see Judah Cohen's 10 minute interview just now on the weather channel. They congratulated him on being the "long range champion" and said he was the only one to correctly forecast the 2-3 week arctic shot in January. Cohen went on to say that he believes the SSW will be a weaker version of what happened in January and that he sees this one as being more notable for cold rather than snow. He said this has been an amazing winter for the stratosphere, though the results have not always made it to ground level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: He said this has been an amazing winter for the stratosphere, though the results have not always made it to ground level. He is starting to sound like Bastardi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Wow! This may end up being one for the record books if this is any indication. This (2/7) Euro Weeklies run’s mean hangs around -5 for a week and then never rises back above +5 (through Mar 23)! Most of these reversal dates are within Feb 15-17 and the members imply a good chance for a dip to sub -10. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 43 minutes ago, GaWx said: Wow! This may end up being one for the record books if this is any indication. This (2/7) Euro Weeklies run’s mean hangs around -5 for a week and then never rises back above +5 (through Mar 23)! Most of these reversal dates are within Feb 15-17 and the members imply a good chance for a dip to sub -10. Clearly, the know-it-alls that claimed the higher water vapor thanks to the volcano erruption would result in a strong pv were wrong by a magnitude of 10. That was all I heard about this past fall it seems next to the Niño. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 21 hours ago, mitchnick said: Clearly, the know-it-alls that claimed the higher water vapor thanks to the volcano erruption would result in a strong pv were wrong by a magnitude of 10. That was all I heard about this past fall it seems next to the Niño. This much was clear last summer. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Not sure why I find this so funny, but NOAA issued a La Niña Watch. It's pretty clear that sub-surface cooling is impacting the surface in the EPAC now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Meanwhile in Wisconsin.. Ice Cover Keeps Disappearing Across Northeast Wisconsin as Record Warmth Carries On | WTAQ News Talk | 97.5 FM · 1360 AM | Green Bay, WI Milwaukee sets record high temperature in February 2024 at 56 degrees (jsonline.com) First confirmed tornado in Wisconsin in February reported just south of Madison, near Evansville and Edgerton (msn.com) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Nice little snowstorm here in Albuquerque today. My forecast for the city had only ~8.5" before 3/1, I believe with 5.5" in March. This helps catch us up to the former total. We'll likely be at 5-6 at least. Pretty classic setup for us, it was like 39F at 8 am but dew points were like 14F. We tend to snow at approximately ((Temp * 2) + (Dew Point)) / 3, when moisture moves over dry cold air. That was 92/3, so sure enough it has been about 30F the entire period with the snow. The GFS literally never had a single run with snow here, at any point, over the past 7 days. I'm sure you'll all have some surprises downstream with this system when the better sampling comes in east of the Rockies. The 3 km NAM and HRRR did have some nice banding, with localized amounts of 3-6 near/in the city. I've noticed over the years that these types of snows for us, where moisture moves over cold/dry air tend to have last minute warm noses for you guys at the mid-levels. I'll be curious to see if this turns into a last minute rain / sleet / freezing rain event for someone in the East on the south side of the precip shield. This little system locks in this winter as meaningfully wetter than average here. We'll almost certainly verify on the warm side. But the cold signal and wet signal are each about 70% likely to verify in an El Nino. So it's quite rare for them both to fail simultaneously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 14 minutes ago, raindancewx said: Nice little snowstorm here in Albuquerque today. My forecast for the city had only ~8.5" before 3/1, I believe with 5.5" in March. This helps catch us up to the former total. We'll likely be at 5-6 at least. Pretty classic setup for us, it was like 39F at 8 am but dew points were like 14F. We tend to snow at approximately ((Temp * 2) + (Dew Point)) / 3, when moisture moves over dry cold air. That was 92/3, so sure enough it has been about 30F the entire period with the snow. The GFS literally never had a single run with snow here, at any point, over the past 7 days. I'm sure you'll all have some surprises downstream with this system when the better sampling comes in east of the Rockies. The 3 km NAM and HRRR did have some nice banding, with localized amounts of 3-6 near/in the city. I've noticed over the years that these types of snows for us, where moisture moves over cold/dry air tend to have last minute warm noses for you guys at the mid-levels. I'll be curious to see if this turns into a last minute rain / sleet / freezing rain event for someone in the East on the south side of the precip shield. This little system locks in this winter as meaningfully wetter than average here. We'll almost certainly verify on the warm side. But the cold signal and wet signal are each about 70% likely to verify in an El Nino. So it's quite rare for them both to fail simultaneously. Semi-OT, but I drove a rental from ABQ to a job interview in Los Alamos in the winter, circa 2000, and crossing the Rio Grande as a small, clean river with snow on the ground around it is a lot different than crossing the Rio Grande at Laredo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 This is the simplest match I could come up with for how Dec-Feb is going to finish. It doesn't look particularly cold for the East in the coming period even if it snows a fair amount. I fudged the scale by 1F since the analogs are old, so it's meant to be -7 to +7. Here is March snow in the El Nino composite for winter above. It's hard to do a composite of these six maps. But the Central Plains at the very least should stay very snowy. Kansas has been getting nuked with snow all season, and these years continue that into March. Something like this? You have to get a little crazy if you're forecasting just one month for snow percentages in the South. But I really do think you'll see some fluke heavy snow again at low elevations around I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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