El Nino 2023-2024

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z GFS and 6Z GFS (image below) have what is very likely a split major SSW by Feb 16-7. Unlike the reversal of Jan 17, this warming would be the more typical near simultaneous and would be right on the anniversary of the one from last winter. Unlike the simultaneous one from last winter, this one wouldn’t have a strong -PNA to fight and would already have a -AO and possibly also a -NAO. Perhaps this is related to the 1/17/24 reversal. This wasn’t even hinted at until @mitchnickalerted us on Jan 23 as a stronger than climo SPV had been forecasted for most of Feb. The implications for especially the E US during very late Feb and especially Mar would be interesting:

hmmm this could turn around some of those mild March forecasts.

we're looking forward to a pattern change starting around the 15th and sounds like it could persist into at least the first half of March, Larry?

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

  I agree that the week centered on Jan 3 would be +2.1, not +1.9, if it were to match up with this cyclonicwx. Also, the week centered on Jan 24 would be +1.6, not +1.7.

 I don’t know why they don’t always match up. Good finding on your part, regardless.

Just for “contest” purposes, a rounded super El Niño (trimonthly ONI) is a given at this point. I’m interested to see if we actually get it unrounded too. As far as the effects on the longwave pattern whether it’s +1.9C or +2.0C/+2.1C unrounded, makes no difference at all. The atmosphere is going to behave the same way, semantics in that sense

[GaWx]

On 1/28/2024 at 9:36 AM, GaWx said:

Now look how low the OHC is: ~+0.25

And now the OHC is down to only ~+0.10:

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

hmmm this could turn around some of those mild March forecasts.

we're looking forward to a pattern change starting around the 15th and sounds like it could persist into at least the first half of March, Larry?

12z locks the cold on the other side of the globe again.

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

12z locks the cold on the other side of the globe again.

What determines where the cold air goes, Ray? And do we have any predictive power in that department?

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What determines where the cold air goes, Ray? And do we have any predictive power in that department?

I think it has something to do with the EPO/WPO, which has been pretty hostile this year. Raindance did well with that, too.

[roardog]

Raindance has had a cold and stormy March for most of the country. It’ll be interesting to see if it happens. He’s had a good winter forecast. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The Arctic High pressure is never so strong that you have to worry about which side of the world the cold is on... 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

Raindance has had a cold and stormy March for most of the country. It’ll be interesting to see if it happens. He’s had a good winter forecast. 

Now that we’re finally up to the cold part of Raindance’s forecast, it’s time to root for it to be right.

[frd]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

12z locks the cold on the other side of the globe again.

Do you believe it though ?  Thought we are headed for a - EPO + PNA pattern in mid Feb. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Do you believe it though ?  Thought we are headed for a - EPO + PNA pattern in mid Feb. 

I think we will get some arctic air in mid February. 

[raindancewx]

I'm still not super-bullish on eastern snow even with the repeat of the cold part of the pattern coming up again. But I did have Feb 16-Mar 15 as the snowiest part of the winter for the Northeast as part of my outlook, and I built the snow analogs in August, as they're actually less sensitive to overall patterns. Snow is...fluky. I find it's better to predict fluky stuff with fluky stuff, and not generalizations, like all the upper level map porn for five weeks in the future you see on here.

Here is how we've done so far. I've been too cold everywhere, so snow in the West is above average at high elevations but below average at valley levels. The fluky southern snow has more or less shown up. Northern New England and the area by DC doing OK for snow relative to most of the NE has also worked out fine so far. Obviously Kansas has been a dead-on bullseye for the heavy snow winner as my analogs had back in August.

I actually think the misses so far - like CA and the northern Plains - are going to catch up a lot for snow over the next six weeks. I actually think there is a half-assed version of the fun part of 1973 coming. I know people like 2010, and for mid-Feb to mid-Apr, I agree it's a decent analog - but I actually think it's not extreme enough. I think an 1983, 1998, 1973 blend is possible for March for snow. There is some tendency for otherwise relatively shitty El Ninos in the West to briefly turn nuts in mid-Feb to mid-Apr. A lot of the strong dying El Ninos go from a strong WPO look, one way or the other where a lot of the North Pacific is flooded with high pressure, to just an open field of low pressure. I think that's the mechanism for the brief period of intense storminess.

Something like 75% of all snow to fall in the last century in March here is ~15 years that are high-solar El Ninos. The Feb 2024 map on the Canadian for the Pacific does look similar (in the Pacific) to the March high-solar/stronger El Nino composite. 

With the Atlantic warmer, I'd generally push the snowy zones on the maps below 100-200 miles northwest for 2024.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 1/31/2024 at 9:43 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it looked thay was to me since last fall, but at this point....I need to see it actully bare fruit. One thing I give @raindancewxa great deal of credit for was identifying that uncanny ability of -PDO El Nino seasons to avoid big NE snows at least excuse imaginable....even when temps were not prohibitive.

 

23 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Here is a look at how things stand for snow in the Northeast. It's really been rather dreadful, even compared to 1997-98. I vaguely remember going to some kid's pool party in March of 1998 in NJ, must have been in the 80s. I think it was near 90 at some point in late March 1998 by Philly.

None of you actually read my outlooks, but I did have a small area from DC to Philly near normal for snow (90-110% of normal), which still seems plausible, with most others meaningfully below average.

I read your outlook, which is why I gave you credit for it...I said "NE"...not mid Atlantic. 

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I read your outlook, which is why I gave you credit for it...I said "NE"...not mid Atlantic. 

Just looking at the end of the ensembles Ray….IMO the post 2/15 pattern change is not going to have much staying power. Gotta agree with you, I think this one is over and out come the beginning of March. The PAC looks poised to crash into that western ridge, I don’t see this lasting much more than 2 weeks but I could be wrong, been wrong before lol

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Just looking at the end of the ensembles Ray….IMO the post 2/15 pattern change is not going to have much staying power. Gotta agree with you, I think this one is over and out come the beginning of March. The PAC looks poised to crash into that western ridge, I don’t see this lasting much more than 2 weeks but I could be wrong, been wrong before lol

Looks like the PDO overrides both the el nino and whatever -nao there is, doesn't it? This is very similar to the late 80s early 90s pattern.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Just looking at the end of the ensembles Ray….IMO the post 2/15 pattern change is not going to have much staying power. Gotta agree with you, I think this one is over and out come the beginning of March. The PAC looks poised to crash into that western ridge, I don’t see this lasting much more than 2 weeks but I could be wrong, been wrong before lol

No argument from me on that.....Maybe it runs a few days into March, but I think that will be a relatively nice month in terms of sensible weather. Maybe Raindance is right and there is a cold snap or two, but I am talking in the mean. I don't see a very wintry month.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Just looking at the end of the ensembles Ray….IMO the post 2/15 pattern change is not going to have much staying power. Gotta agree with you, I think this one is over and out come the beginning of March. The PAC looks poised to crash into that western ridge, I don’t see this lasting much more than 2 weeks but I could be wrong, been wrong before lol

 If the 6Z GFS 10 mb were to verify closely, that would result in a mid-month solid reversal/major SSW. There’d probably be significant implications for as early as very late Feb and continuing through much of March in the E US based on the past. In other words, the chances of a very late spring would be increased.

 The 6Z has the reversal start Feb 15-16. @Stormchaserchuck1: How long is the average lag from a mid Feb major SSW to the start of potential significant sensible E US wx effects?

 6Z GFS at 10 mb hour 360 (for 6Z on Feb 17) has a net E wind at 60N:

[frd]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No argument from me on that.....Maybe it runs a few days into March, but I think that will be a relatively nice month in terms of sensible weather. Maybe Raindance is right and there is a cold snap or two, but I am talking in the mean. I don't see a very wintry month.

So you are thinking the pattern change lasts about two weeks and then thats it?   So you are going to route of the Pac not cooperating and breaking down the pattern that sets up in mid-Feb by early March? 

Some are going with a cold and possibly snowy March. I have my bar set low, despite the weeklies, and ensembles.  Been fooled too many times in the past. 

  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

The 6Z has the reversal start Feb 15-16. @Stormchaserchuck1: How long is the average lag from a mid Feb major SSW to the start of potential significant sensible E US wx effects?

+15-20 days.. ~March 2-7

[GaWx]

On 2/2/2024 at 1:58 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

+15-20 days.. ~March 2-7

Groundhog weeklies say spring may be awhile: mean dips to +11 with ~15 reversals at midmonth. A week ago the 1/26 run had only 3 midmonth reversals with the mean dipping only to +31!

[michsnowfreak]

20 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I'm still not super-bullish on eastern snow even with the repeat of the cold part of the pattern coming up again. But I did have Feb 16-Mar 15 as the snowiest part of the winter for the Northeast as part of my outlook, and I built the snow analogs in August, as they're actually less sensitive to overall patterns. Snow is...fluky. I find it's better to predict fluky stuff with fluky stuff, and not generalizations, like all the upper level map porn for five weeks in the future you see on here.

Here is how we've done so far. I've been too cold everywhere, so snow in the West is above average at high elevations but below average at valley levels. The fluky southern snow has more or less shown up. Northern New England and the area by DC doing OK for snow relative to most of the NE has also worked out fine so far. Obviously Kansas has been a dead-on bullseye for the heavy snow winner as my analogs had back in August.

I actually think the misses so far - like CA and the northern Plains - are going to catch up a lot for snow over the next six weeks. I actually think there is a half-assed version of the fun part of 1973 coming. I know people like 2010, and for mid-Feb to mid-Apr, I agree it's a decent analog - but I actually think it's not extreme enough. I think an 1983, 1998, 1973 blend is possible for March for snow. There is some tendency for otherwise relatively shitty El Ninos in the West to briefly turn nuts in mid-Feb to mid-Apr. A lot of the strong dying El Ninos go from a strong WPO look, one way or the other where a lot of the North Pacific is flooded with high pressure, to just an open field of low pressure. I think that's the mechanism for the brief period of intense storminess.

Something like 75% of all snow to fall in the last century in March here is ~15 years that are high-solar El Ninos. The Feb 2024 map on the Canadian for the Pacific does look similar (in the Pacific) to the March high-solar/stronger El Nino composite. 

With the Atlantic warmer, I'd generally push the snowy zones on the maps below 100-200 miles northwest for 2024.

One of the crazy things to me is that Detroit just saw the wettest January on record with 5.25" of precip (including 17.0" snow). El Nino's typically have dryness centered around the Lakes. I'm very curious to see how the turn towards cold in mid february and beyond behaves from a precip/snow standpoint.

[roardog]

43 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

One of the crazy things to me is that Detroit just saw the wettest January on record with 5.25" of precip (including 17.0" snow). El Nino's typically have dryness centered around the Lakes. I'm very curious to see how the turn towards cold in mid february and beyond behaves from a precip/snow standpoint.

I thought last fall I saw someone(maybe Raindance) post a map showing that a strong/super Nino actually has a corridor of above normal precip near here in the winter. That surprised me but then I remembered how ‘15-‘16 actually had some big storms come through this area after December. 
 

Of course this year, we saw a very non Nino like pattern in January with that cold stretch with the coldest air being in the northern plains. That along with a positive SOI for the month, brought a more Nina like pattern which could help explain the wetness around here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, frd said:

So you are thinking the pattern change lasts about two weeks and then thats it?   So you are going to route of the Pac not cooperating and breaking down the pattern that sets up in mid-Feb by early March? 

Some are going with a cold and possibly snowy March. I have my bar set low, despite the weeklies, and ensembles.  Been fooled too many times in the past. 

  

Yes.

[snowman19]

Big Nino warming/strenthening continues. Region 3.4 back up over +1.9C again. Looks like it may hit +2.0C in the next few days….

 

 

[GaWx]

 The 2/3 models (image below) are even more bullish for a major SSW with the GFS’ 2/16 reversal plunging way down to -17 and still dropping at the end (likely overdone)! GEFS mean now drops to -2 and still dropping at the end. Including the GFS, 6 members drop below -10 with a couple more possible after the end.

 GEFS extended means for mid to late Feb

-1/25 run: stayed over +30

-1/29 run: stayed over +20

-1/30 run: stayed over +15

-1/31 & 2/1 runs: stayed over +10

-2/2 run: stayed over +7

-2/3 run: dipped to -2 and still dropping into extended, which hasn’t been released yet

 

 Meanwhile, CFS forecasts for the 1st half of Mar in the E US have gotten much colder.

[raindancewx]

We had some weakening at the surface in January on the Euro plume verification. We're almost done with this event. I assumed a +2.0 peak around Nov or Dec and then +1.5 for Dec-Feb, so we'll see if that holds. I'd guess +1.2 for February or so. The start of the month does look near +2 again, but I think you are going to see a rapid collapse late month that ties in with the move to more interesting weather in real-time.

[BuffaloWeather]

Congrats @snowman19

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Congrats @snowman19

The unrounded ONI max came in at +1.97. RONI never made strong with another +1.49.

[BuffaloWeather]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The unrounded ONI max came in at +1.97. RONI never made strong with another +1.49.

Still super 2.0 rounded, everyone here told him no chance and he stuck with his guns, props! 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Still super 2.0 rounded, everyone here told him no chance and he stuck with his guns. 

That he did. So, congrats @snowman19for that!

 This one is just like 1965-6, which peaked at +1.98. That one is often left out of the “super” peaking group even though it also rounded to 2.0. Not that it matters wx wise.

Edit: for wx though, RONI may matter more.