snowman19 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: I knew that there had to be a catch when I saw you you had posted a tweet about a SSW. Thankfully, the Pacific looks great in February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Quote This has already coupled with the troposphere, associated with the current Greenland Blocking/negative NAO regime. I don't agree with this.. there is a +3 day-0 correlation, then it drops down to near 0, then it goes up to +10 at day+20 (20 days after 10mb warming). If the events saw a -NAO during initial warming didn't make a difference in the eventual lagged event. The correlation isn't perfect, but it's about 65-70% of time, indifferent to what happens at D+0. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I knew that there had to be a catch when I saw you you had posted a tweet about a SSW. Thankfully, the Pacific looks great in February. If Simon Lee is correct about the NAM/AO and NAO we would definitely need a cooperative PAC (PNA, EPO, WPO) and hope the western ridge isn’t too far west or we would get cutter and inland runner happy. It’s obvious at this point the PDO isn’t going to cooperate….question is ENSO….how long do you sustain a -EPO with an El Niño this strong? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 These rapid and highly amplified NAO and AO swings from one phase to another have become more common for us since the study was published in 2009. https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/922025 The research team found the variability of the NAO decade-to-decade (multi-decadal scale) has been larger, swinging more wildly, during the late twentieth century than in the early 1800s, suggesting that variability is linked to the mean temperature of the Northern Hemisphere. This confirms variability previously reported in past terrestrial reconstructions. "When the Industrial Revolution begins and atmospheric temperature becomes warmer, the NAO takes on a much stronger pattern in longer-term behavior," said Goodkin. "That was suspected before in the instrumental records, but this is the first time it has been documented in records from both the ocean and the atmosphere." The North Atlantic Oscillation is described by the NAO index, calculated as a weighted difference between the polar low and the subtropical high during the winter season. In a positive phase, both the low-pressure zone over Iceland and high pressure over the Azores are intensified, resulting in changes in the strength, incidence, and pathway of winter storms crossing the Atlantic. In a negative phase, a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway. The NAO index varies from year to year, but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting more than a decade. An unusually long period of positive phase between 1970-2000 led to the suggestion that global warming was affecting the behavior of the NAO. "Anthropogenic (human-related) warming does not appear to be altering whether the NAO is in a positive or negative phase at multi-decadal time scales," said WHOI paleoclimatologist Konrad Hughen. "It does seem to be increasing variability. Clearly, this has implications for the future." "As temperatures get warmer, there's potential for more violent swings of the NAO — the phases becoming even more positive and even more negative," Hughen added. "If the NAO locks more into these patterns, intense storms will become more intense and droughts will become more severe." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: These rapid and highly amplified NAO and AO swings from one phase to another have become more common for us since the study was published in 2009. https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/922025 Anthropogenic (human-related) warming does not appear to be altering whether the NAO is in a positive or negative phase at multi-decadal time scales," said WHOI paleoclimatologist Konrad Hughen. "It does seem to be increasing variability. Clearly, this has implications for the future." "As temperatures get warmer, there's potential for more violent swings of the NAO — the phases becoming even more positive and even more negative," Hughen added. "If the NAO locks more into these patterns, intense storms will become more intense and droughts will become more severe." There have been only 6 -NAO winters during the last 44 (only 14% of them) since 1979-80. The prior 30 winters included 16 -NAO (53%) winters! OTOH, the % of summers with a -NAO has gone up sharply. From 1950-2006, there were only 15 (26%) -NAO summers. But just since 2007, there have been 12 (71%) -NAOs during summer! Something significant has changed at both the winter and summer seasonal levels to affect the NAO in opposite ways. This isn’t just from randomness. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 31 minutes ago, GaWx said: There have been only 6 -NAO winters during the last 44 (only 14% of them) since 1979-80. The prior 30 winters included 16 -NAO (53%) winters! OTOH, the % of summers with a -NAO has gone up sharply. From 1950-2006, there were only 15 (26%) -NAO summers. But just since 2007, there have been 12 (71%) -NAOs during summer! Something significant has changed at both the winter and summer seasonal levels to affect the NAO in opposite ways. This isn’t just from randomness. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table The -5.285 AO rise to +5.536 in under 30 days back in 2021 may be the most extreme short term AO reversal we have seen. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii 2021 2 10 -5.285 2021 3 11 5.536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The -5.285 AO rise to +5.536 in under 30 days back in 2021 may be the most extreme short term AO reversal we have seen. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii 2021 2 10 -5.285 2021 3 11 5.536 Indeed, that swing in Feb-Mar of 2021 of nearly 11 in just 29 days was amazing. About the only comparable swing I’ve seen is this one: 2/15/56: -4.6 3/2/56: +4.7 This one was a swing of 9.3 in just 16 days. Arguably, this one may be even more amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 20 minutes ago, GaWx said: Indeed, that swing in Feb-Mar of 2021 of nearly 11 in just 29 days was amazing. About the only comparable swing I’ve seen is this one: 2/15/56: -4.6 3/2/56: +4.7 This one was a swing of 9.3 in just 16 days. Arguably, this one may be even more amazing. My favorite was 12 /22/15 +4.503 to 1/16/16 -4.898 due to the record breaking snowstorm shortly after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 hours ago, GaWx said: There have been only 6 -NAO winters during the last 44 (only 14% of them) since 1979-80. The prior 30 winters included 16 -NAO (53%) winters! The southern part of the -NAO has been missing.. 50/50 low and N. Atlantic trough. There have been a lot of years where there was ridging over Greenland, and it was determined to be a neutral or positive NAO. Your stat seems impressive for the EC, but cold/warm there is part of the bottom half of the NAO calculation I think. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 OISST for 3.4 has been dropping quite a bit meaning a super is still not yet a lock even if still likely: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 We're moving towards a PAC northwest oriented Jet. Maritime tropical --> Maritime Polar Therefore, the modest increase in the PNA is not a cold-ish look for the CONUS, it's still heavily influenced by the pacific... On balance, it is broadly an AN factor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: We're moving towards a PAC northwest oriented Jet. Maritime tropical --> Maritime Polar Therefore, the modest increase in the PNA is not a cold-ish look for the CONUS, it's still heavily influenced by the pacific... On balance, it is broadly an AN factor. If Simon Lee is correct about the NAO and AO going predominantly positive into February, you better pray for sustained -EPO (a real tough proposition with a strong Nino) or it’s definitely game over, even with a +PNA. +EPO = the PAC floodgates into Canada and the CONUS will be wide open with no arctic or Atlantic blocking over the top 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: If Simon Lee is correct about the NAO and AO going predominantly positive into February, you better pray for sustained -EPO (a real tough proposition with a strong Nino) or it’s definitely game over, even with a +PNA. +EPO = the PAC floodgates into Canada and the CONUS will be wide open with no arctic or Atlantic blocking over the top Agreed. Cause for concern....as I feel like the amplitude of the MJO in early February may be over modeled, which would leave us at the mercy of extra tropical forcing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Agreed. Cause for concern....as I feel like the amplitude of the MJO in early February may be over modeled, which would leave us at the mercy of extra tropical forcing.I’m starting to think my idea of a good February is about to possibly go into the shitter. Like you said, assuming no -AO/-NAO, we are at the mercy of unfavorable MJO forcing traversing phases 4-6 with the WPAC warm pool, -PDO and a possible GOA/AK vortex (+EPO/+WPO) with PAC jet extensions from the strong +ENSO. +PNA does little good along with a +EPO 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 @snowman19 is lagging 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: I’m starting to think my idea of a good February is about to possibly go into the shitter. Like you said, assuming no -AO/-NAO, we are at the mercy of unfavorable MJO forcing traversing phases 4-6 with the WPAC warm pool, -PDO and a possible GOA/AK vortex (+EPO/+WPO) with PAC jet extensions from the strong +ENSO. +PNA does little good along with a +EPO Well, the MJO is departing phase 6 by February...its a matter of amplitude in phase 7. I see a pathway to kind of a meh February perhaps, but I don't envision a repeat of December or even January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 hours ago, jbenedet said: We're moving towards a PAC northwest oriented Jet. Maritime tropical --> Maritime Polar Therefore, the modest increase in the PNA is not a cold-ish look for the CONUS, it's still heavily influenced by the pacific... On balance, it is broadly an AN factor. The AN factor is a very positive NAO and AO (approaching +3), with +EPO being a factor some of the time too. Those are dominating, but the PNA is not part of that equation right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 This thread has gotten away from strictly El Niño… That said, I don’t think people should hang their hat on whatever the EPO projections are right now, because they’ve been unusually variable – typically they are more stochastic than the larger domain space/index fields - including the NAO in that part of the discussion. But this year in particular the models are having trouble with continuity with and how much 500 mbar anomalies are really gonna be situated over the Alaskan sector in the average extended. Gee it almost seems like a -PDO battling with an underpinning warm ENSO. . … It’s an important issue for determinism, because we are approaching the climatological nadir. Just so happens to be these models are also trying to make us go above normal on top of that - but that may be changing before our very eyes. I’m noticing that some of the operational dailies are starting to tinker with how much warming there’s actually going to be. I think there’s just enough uncertainty coming from these various arguments to wonder how warm it’s gonna be N of DC these next two weeks 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Cold water is starting to breach the central-subsurface region https://ibb.co/VBXkpzz Believe it or not, but this central region correlates most to PNA, so if we start seeing below average there it could favor more -PNA conditions going forward. Interesting because the surface is still in Strong-Nino territory, subsurface index is about -0.1 right now. Late last Winter we had +subsurface and a weak Nina at the subsurface, and we saw a very -PNA February, so the relative difference correlation that I estimate to be true didn't hold up.. so it should be interesting to see what happens this Feb/March with the opposite relative condition occurring this year (neg subsurface, +El Nino surface). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 OISST dip in 3.4 to about 1.68 area is the first time since just before Halloween. With Trades supposed to be rather strong for the next week and half I would expect these number to continue to fall to about 1.5 ish area before we do some leveling out at the end of the month. Region 3 also starting to take a hit as this has held rather well thus far. If we do indeed fall that low into 3.4 for the last 2 weeks of the month we probably end up again at about 1.9 ONI for NDJ. SOI should start to relax a bit coming up here and may even go negative briefly but if somehow the January mean ends up positive I'd have to look but I don't think that has happened, especially with where the Nino is standing. This -PDO pattern means business. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Anyone venture to guess when and where the effects of the SSW will/may occur, if any? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 9 hours ago, mitchnick said: Anyone venture to guess when and where the effects of the SSW will/may occur, if any? We are getting a pretty good Stratosphere warming now: https://ibb.co/W5CDyQG At this time of the year, the average time to effect the NAO/ground pattern is +20 days. That would be Feb ~7-10. Here is a post about what recent patterns have occurred when the 10mb warmings "downwelled" in time: 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/16/2024 at 8:56 PM, GaWx said: OISST for 3.4 has been dropping quite a bit meaning a super is still not yet a lock even if still likely: OISST is still dropping meaning an ONI based super-strong El Niño is becoming less and less likely. I very roughly estimate that if the next 11 days end up averaging +1.65 or lower, there’s a good shot that there would not be a super peak based on the unrounded NDJ ONI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, GaWx said: OISST is still dropping meaning an ONI based super-strong El Niño is becoming less and less likely. I very roughly estimate that if the next 11 days end up averaging +1.65 or lower, there’s a good shot that there would not be a super peak based on the unrounded NDJ ONI. I have noticed that most on the board get too caught up in shorter term fluctuations and allow it to bias perception of ultimate ONI peak. This isn't directed at just you, but so much waffling has gone one....super very unlikely, to lamest a lock a few weeks ago to now less likely again. I get that its tough because its right near the line, but.... Still like the top of my 1.7 to 1.9 ONI range from June. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 There were a few days mixed in there with some buoy issues but yo get the idea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have noticed that most on the board get too caught up in shorter term fluctuations and allow it to bias perception of ultimate ONI peak. This isn't directed at just you, but so much waffling has gone one....super very unlikely, to lamest a lock a few weeks ago to now less likely again. I get that its tough because its right near the line, but.... Still like the top of my 1.7 to 1.9 ONI range from June. Yep, being near the line is the big factor. The latest change is because the sharp drop of 0.37 over just the last 8 days has suddenly opened things up. I just report on this and other things as I see it regardless of any predictions I’ve made. My last “official” prediction was for a super made way back on 9/21/23 in the contest thread: So, my prediction of a super is in danger now. And I can forget about a +2.10. A super at all, though still a good chance, has probably dropped to near 50-50. Also my chance at being the closest and thus getting a free cruise to see the hallowed Nino 3.4 waters is rapidly slipping away. On a brighter note, you may be going there! I’m enjoying the drama as it’s like a close football game with twists and turns.@snowman19probably sweating this out now so much that he may no longer be a . Since he only likes to report news that supports what he wants to see, he’s been (not at all surprisingly) quieter the last couple of days on the SST front. Edit: because he just posted a “confused” reaction, I just checked and see that @snowman19 actually hasn’t made a Nino 3.4 SST post in over a week, which was at the time of the last OISST peak near +2.00. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 hours ago, GaWx said: OISST is still dropping meaning an ONI based super-strong El Niño is becoming less and less likely. I very roughly estimate that if the next 11 days end up averaging +1.65 or lower, there’s a good shot that there would not be a super peak based on the unrounded NDJ ONI. Reviewing the Oisst graph, the first day Enso 3.4 was at or greater than +2.0 was on November 20 and the last day was January 5. During that 47 day period, it was at or above +2.0 only 32 days, with highest reading of approximately +2.17 on November 25. Of the 32 days above +2.0, only 11 were at or above +2.10. I don't know if it makes it to the Super category, but if it does, it's the bastard child of the bunch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 30 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Reviewing the Oisst graph, the first day Enso 3.4 was at or greater than +2.0 was on November 20 and the last day was January 5. During that 47 day period, it was at or above +2.0 only 32 days, with highest reading of approximately +2.17 on November 25. Of the 32 days above +2.0, only 11 were at or above +2.10. I don't know if it makes it to the Super category, but if it does, it's the bastard child of the bunch. But don’t forget that ERSST, what the official ONI calculations are based on, averaged 0.08 warmer than OISST Aug-Dec. That’s why I had been saying til recently that a super was still likely. Now it is probably near 50-50 because of the rapid drop over the last 8 days. Down to the wire! It won’t matter so much as far as the US wx is concerned. This is more about the contest, bragging rights, fun, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 hours ago, GaWx said: Yep, being near the line is the big factor. The latest change is because the sharp drop of 0.37 over just the last 8 days has suddenly opened things up. I just report on this and other things as I see it regardless of any predictions I’ve made. My last “official” prediction was for a super made way back on 9/21/23 in the contest thread: So, my prediction of a super is in danger now. And I can forget about a +2.10. A super at all, though still a good chance, has probably dropped to near 50-50. Also my chance at being the closest and thus getting a free cruise to see the hallowed Nino 3.4 waters is rapidly slipping away. On a brighter note, you may be going there! I’m enjoying the drama as it’s like a close football game with twists and turns.@snowman19probably sweating this out now so much that he may no longer be a . Since he only likes to report news that supports what he wants to see, he’s been (not at all surprisingly) quieter the last couple of days on the SST front. Edit: because he just posted a “confused” reaction, I just checked and see that @snowman19 actually hasn’t made a Nino 3.4 SST post in over a week, which was at the time of the last OISST peak near +2.00. No need for me to say much my man. It’s dropping fast, yes, but it looks to level off shortly. It’s going to be very close. I still stand by my prediction that it goes down as an official unrounded ERSST/ONI trimonthly super El Nino. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong, so be it. I’ll take the hit if need be lol Anyway, it’s semantics now, there is going to be no difference on the overall synoptic longwave pattern whether this Nino is an official +1.9C trimonthly ONI or a +2.0C or +2.1C trimonthly ONI. We would be talking about a difference of 0.1 or 0.2. But anyway, I’m very curious to see the final result 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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