so_whats_happening Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Quite the change in the subsurface going on. First time we have introduced a -3, it also does not seem like the central to WPAC will cool all too much in the subsurface in the next month so we may see some rather drastic changes in the EPAC coming up over the month. With trades looking at the upper echelon of values I think any further warming is not expected. The westerlies that do develop around 100-120E I think will help in pushing that cold pool eastward later in the month and by February we start tumble rather quickly in 3 and eastern 3.4 with 1+2 maybe going negative for the first time in almost a year. Of course we will have to wait and see how it progresses but just some thoughts of the progression. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 @GaWx It is not perfect but phase 2 was about the 29th- 2nd this was the pattern for the 2nd-8th and here is phase 3 which I would expect a longer period of east or TN valley troughing before we do a quick scoot through to 3-4-5 around mid month to the 3rd week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: @GaWx It is not perfect but phase 2 was about the 29th- 2nd this was the pattern for the 2nd-8th and here is phase 3 which I would expect a longer period of east or TN valley troughing before we do a quick scoot through to 3-4-5 around mid month to the 3rd week. What I think will be nice from this is that we may get a final attack on the SPV coming up from this MJO movement but we are already coming up on the end of the season anyway by the time this rolls through sooo not really sure many would want this to happen if you are hoping for a warm spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 20 hours ago, snowman19 said: You bring up a real good point, is the “normal” displaced east big GOA vortex just delayed? Hard to believe we have an El Nino this strong and just simply never see a typical strong/super response. Everything about this event has been delayed. (NDJ peak). An event of this strength dramatically alters the global heat budget and is eventually going to feedback. The laws of physics have to kick in at some point I would think, especially given the huge, unprecedented rise in the MEI over the last month, there has to be an atmospheric response in kind The Jan 20th to end of month period looks like an El Niño induced furnace. Hang on… Today’s 12z GFS hr 240+ just an appetizer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Today’s 0Z models update shows a significantly increased chance for a strat wind reversal Jan 15-16 with 12Z 1/16 mins of GEPS at -1, FNMOC at -3, GEOS at 0, GFS at +1, and GEFS at +2.5. Well over half of the non-GEFS ensemble members reverse Jan 15-16 with most of those getting down to -1 to -5 and the lowest getting down to -6. If the reversal actually occurs, I don’t know thar it would actually be called a major SSW due to the lack of warming accompanying it (though fairly modest warming follows it): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: The Jan 20th to end of month period looks like an El Niño induced furnace. Hang on… Today’s 12z GFS hr 240+ just an appetizer. ...but, but, the SNE crew says otherwise.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I mean if you somehow think going through 4-6 will not yield a warmer pattern... especially at this amplitude of mjo. I just have to say best of luck. Torch ehhh probably not but warmer than average sure and being at the lowest point of the year in averages a +10 anomaly around here would be something like mid 40s and low 30s at night. When we start seeing mid to upper 50s even 60s regularly let me know cause then that is a straight up torch fest. I had mid 70s about 6-7 years ago for two winters in february for like 2 days. Even had thunderstorms and hail lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 6 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: I mean if you somehow think going through 4-6 will not yield a warmer pattern... especially at this amplitude of mjo. I just have to say best of luck. Torch ehhh probably not but warmer than average sure and being at the lowest point of the year in averages a +10 anomaly around here would be something like mid 40s and low 30s at night. When we start seeing mid to upper 50s even 60s regularly let me know cause then that is a straight up torch fest. I had mid 70s about 6-7 years ago for two winters in february for like 2 days. Even had thunderstorms and hail lol. Patience. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/2/2024 at 7:12 PM, raindancewx said: I suspect we're actually getting very close to the part of the pattern that will support a huge, fluky snowstorm in the South ala 1973. I've been expecting that in the 1/15-2/15 time frame, if it is to happen. My analogs had a small, narrow band of unusual heavy snow in the South. So this is nearly perfectly aligned with I had in my outlook from October. Although admittedly the strip is a bit north of where I had it. You'll notice I had the south as snowy after 1/15 in my outlook. This is because I use...counting indicators for the timing of pattern changes. Anyway this stripe has been on the models for 3-4 days now, so I do think it's legit, though the amounts may end up very different still. You certainly have an air mass cold enough to do this. I'm expecting a pretty big warm up late month, maybe not as early as the models have it. Don't really expect February to be as cold as January nationally, not that the month will finish that cold anyway. MJO is going through 4-5-6 at pretty reliable intervals. So it should get there again in February, likely mid-month to prevent any extensive cold snaps. I actually still think DC and Philly will get to near (probably still below) average snow totals, it's just going to be a 2/16-3/15 thing like I had in my outlook. You'll have plenty of very powerful storms in March again this year but the traffic pattern in the Pacific should break pretty meaningfully as the El Nino dies rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 19 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: I hate to break up this patting of the back but @griteaternailed the temps monthly and ONI. Well deserved applause. I missed his outlook... Don't get me wrong, I love his stuff, but I wouldn't give anyone credit for "nailing" January 11 days in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 So here is a look at the winter so far. This is 42 days in (6 of 13 weeks). It's not really cold anywhere, but as I posted recently, I thought parts of the SE and SW might be a tiny bit below average. Now look, I was way too cold nationally for December. Like, horrifically so. If you go back to my posts, I recognized this pretty early in December. But I want you all to look at what Ray had after I show what I had. Look at how specifically wrong I was, and then look at where he was wrong. This is why I say he copies me. It's literally the same fucking errors with a different blend. Whether I do a good job or not, the same spatial patterns in the errors show up every year in his stuff. Seriously, it's almost impossible to be this similarly wrong to what I had in a given month without at least internalizing the ideas. If you had just picked 1997 / 2015 as an analog, it'd be way closer than what I had as an example. This is my blend minus 2023, and then I just went to Ray's site to look at his stuff, and did his blend minus 2023. I still haven't read his forecast I just searched for the word "December" and went down to the actual five words of forecast material. My favorite part is as late as Nov 30 he has a post that says "December appears on track" before missing by ~8 degrees for the entire country. Me - Oct 10 Ray - Nov 11 - https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/11/winter-23-24-will-be-lesson-in.html It's the same fucking thing....every year. Again, it's nearly impossible to come up with errors as specific and large as what I had without internalizing and copying the idea. The joke is by mid-month it's actually pretty easy to see how things are going to go. If you look at January, its also fairly similar to what I have, but it looks like there are at least meaningful actual differences. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 12 hours ago, snowman19 said: @so_whats_happening Looks like we are seeing the final warming of this event….it probably starts decaying in about a week or so from now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 19 hours ago, jbenedet said: The Jan 20th to end of month period looks like an El Niño induced furnace. Hang on… Today’s 12z GFS hr 240+ just an appetizer. How are you missing the complete pattern shift out west. Look what happens after the warm up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/12/2024 at 12:01 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yup. I never debated the -PDO flavor this year, but rather I was just harping on the idea that we can live with a pedestrian cold phase Pacific given favorable polar fields. We are about to see that play out. Yep, we have seen big winters before, even with a -PDO. It's not about trying to obtain perfection, but just trying to get to average snowfall for the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 13 hours ago, jbenedet said: Patience. Good thing is, we might get to double digit snowfall before that happens, a full 7 days with highs every day below freezing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: How are you missing the complete pattern shift out west. Look what happens after the warm up. If you want to read 384hr+ on the GEFS/EPS. Go for it. The irony is, verbatim, we lose the -NAO, and the long wave ridge placement out west is approximately 750–1000 miles too far west —the northeast will be prone to cutters and warm sectoring with that look. This especially true in eastern half of New England. Doesn’t take much to see, just look under the hood of the same guidance you’re referencing. End of the month—as advertised—the pacific improves, the east coast worsens. Not saying it will play out that way, but if you take off the snow goggles…that’s what it is right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 9 hours ago, raindancewx said: So here is a look at the winter so far. This is 42 days in (6 of 13 weeks). It's not really cold anywhere, but as I posted recently, I thought parts of the SE and SW might be a tiny bit below average. Now look, I was way too cold nationally for December. Like, horrifically so. If you go back to my posts, I recognized this pretty early in December. But I want you all to look at what Ray had after I show what I had. Look at how specifically wrong I was, and then look at where he was wrong. This is why I say he copies me. It's literally the same fucking errors with a different blend. Whether I do a good job or not, the same spatial patterns in the errors show up every year in his stuff. Seriously, it's almost impossible to be this similarly wrong to what I had in a given month without at least internalizing the ideas. If you had just picked 1997 / 2015 as an analog, it'd be way closer than what I had as an example. This is my blend minus 2023, and then I just went to Ray's site to look at his stuff, and did his blend minus 2023. I still haven't read his forecast I just searched for the word "December" and went down to the actual five words of forecast material. My favorite part is as late as Nov 30 he has a post that says "December appears on track" before missing by ~8 degrees for the entire country. Me - Oct 10 Ray - Nov 11 - https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/11/winter-23-24-will-be-lesson-in.html It's the same fucking thing....every year. Again, it's nearly impossible to come up with errors as specific and large as what I had without internalizing and copying the idea. The joke is by mid-month it's actually pretty easy to see how things are going to go. If you look at January, its also fairly similar to what I have, but it looks like there are at least meaningful actual differences. Your attacks on others are just pathetic, and you should be suspended for this kind of crap, and you've been doing it for years...not to mention the language you use that no one in this thread uses but you. On top of all that, you are accusing someone of something that isn't true. I'd like to see you do that to his face. I hope you are smart enough to realize that if you are making a seasonal forecast based off Strong El Nino and the PDO that there is a pretty small list of years to consider, so of course there are going to be similar ideas in forecasts. You need to be worrying about your own self and your own forecasts and quit attacking others. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/12/2024 at 12:34 PM, GaWx said: Today’s 0Z models update shows a significantly increased chance for a strat wind reversal Jan 15-16 with 12Z 1/16 mins of GEPS at -1, FNMOC at -3, GEOS at 0, GFS at +1, and GEFS at +2.5. Well over half of the non-GEFS ensemble members reverse Jan 15-16 with most of those getting down to -1 to -5 and the lowest getting down to -6. If the reversal actually occurs, I don’t know thar it would actually be called a major SSW due to the lack of warming accompanying it (though fairly modest warming follows it): And now today’s non-Euro update says a reversal is likely 1/15-6 (implications for Feb? though technically may not be SSW) with a strong majority of members below 0 as the big change was the GEFS joining the others as 17 of 23 of them go <0 vs none yesterday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 18 hours ago, raindancewx said: So here is a look at the winter so far. This is 42 days in (6 of 13 weeks). It's not really cold anywhere, but as I posted recently, I thought parts of the SE and SW might be a tiny bit below average. Now look, I was way too cold nationally for December. Like, horrifically so. If you go back to my posts, I recognized this pretty early in December. But I want you all to look at what Ray had after I show what I had. Look at how specifically wrong I was, and then look at where he was wrong. This is why I say he copies me. It's literally the same fucking errors with a different blend. Whether I do a good job or not, the same spatial patterns in the errors show up every year in his stuff. Seriously, it's almost impossible to be this similarly wrong to what I had in a given month without at least internalizing the ideas. If you had just picked 1997 / 2015 as an analog, it'd be way closer than what I had as an example. This is my blend minus 2023, and then I just went to Ray's site to look at his stuff, and did his blend minus 2023. I still haven't read his forecast I just searched for the word "December" and went down to the actual five words of forecast material. My favorite part is as late as Nov 30 he has a post that says "December appears on track" before missing by ~8 degrees for the entire country. Me - Oct 10 Ray - Nov 11 - https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/11/winter-23-24-will-be-lesson-in.html It's the same fucking thing....every year. Again, it's nearly impossible to come up with errors as specific and large as what I had without internalizing and copying the idea. The joke is by mid-month it's actually pretty easy to see how things are going to go. If you look at January, its also fairly similar to what I have, but it looks like there are at least meaningful actual differences. I'm glad this fool was finally suspended. This toxic shit has gone on long enough. Care to explain how I nailed the NAO/AO last season and you whiffed on it??? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/8/2024 at 8:45 PM, raindancewx said: You don't really forecast anything. It's 40,000 words of blather followed by three maps that are dulled to the point that the composite shows +1 or -1 as your extremes, and you forecast 50 inches of snow in Boston every year. I haven't read anything you've written in years, but I'm sure this is still the case. I guess you don 't really forecast anything, either...since I copied you. 500 words of blather followed by some dulled maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/9/2024 at 8:10 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: You can't win with him if you live on the east coast.....first I get accused of copying his work, now I'm scoffed at because I "don't forecast anything and its the same every year"....well, then what does that say about his work if I am apparently plagiarizing his stuff? And how can I be copying him if I am apparently biased towards east coast snow and cold?? You compliment his efforts and it goes ignored....he's just a confrontation seeking missile. Its truly a bizarre, dysfunctional and maladaptive pattern of behavior. Bump.....very predictable oscillation...back and forth between me being an idiot and copying him. Rather ironic dual-accusation there Go figure....we both had strong El Niño/-PDO analogs during a strong El Niño/-PDO...who would have thought!!? Well, he has chance to ponder that for 5 days lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 5 hours ago, GaWx said: And now today’s non-Euro update says a reversal is likely 1/15-6 (implications for Feb? though technically may not be SSW) with a strong majority of members below 0 as the big change was the GEFS joining the others as 17 of 23 of them go <0 vs none yesterday: Maybe it's just me, but I am so exhausted by the PV talk lol Guidance just all over the place all season. Don't take that the wrong way, Larry....just speaking to how awful guidance has been with that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The funniest part is that I actually came up with my DM forecast composite in September, before he even released his outlook. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/09/high-confidence-in-evolution-of-enso.html Anyone who reads my stuff knows I cite materials...I have used one of his graphics once or twice and if you go through, they are cited with his Twitter handle recommended as a follow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I missed his outlook... Don't get me wrong, I love his stuff, but I wouldn't give anyone credit for "nailing" January 11 days in. I believe he is referring to the ONI prediction contest from early September: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59534-what-strength-will-the-el-niño-peak-at-in-2023-2024/?do=findComment&comment=6992657 For Oct/Nov/Dec/Jan, I had: 1.8/2.0/2.0/1.9, Max tri-monthly in NDJ of 1.97 Actual for those months is: 1.72/2.02/2.07/? In reality, my thoughts on the peak have waffled here and there. After the flat-lining in September, I didn't think it would get quite as warm as it has 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, griteater said: I believe he is referring to the ONI prediction contest from early September: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59534-what-strength-will-the-el-niño-peak-at-in-2023-2024/?do=findComment&comment=6992657 For Oct/Nov/Dec/Jan, I had: 1.8/2.0/2.0/1.9, Max tri-monthly in NDJ of 1.97 Actual for those months is: 1.72/2.02/2.07/? In reality, my thoughts on the peak have waffled here and there. After the flat-lining in September, I didn't think it would get quite as warm as it has Oh, I thought he meant ONI peak and monthly temps in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 So, 0Z GEFS went from this on 1/12: 0% chance of reversal in January To this on 1/13: >60% chance of reversal 1/16-17, which is by far biggest jump and highest I’ve seen it this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/11/2024 at 6:41 AM, bluewave said: This month will be a collaborative effort between the borderline super El Niño, record MJO 2-7 for such a strong El Niño, -PDO, and wave breaks leading to the big mid-month -NAO. So far the deepest trough in the US is in the Southwest like we have been seeing in recent years. When the month is finished, it generally looks like that trough will remain there in the means. Unprecedented cold in Seattle for such a strong El Niño. This is the first time there with a daily high not getting above 22° with the ONI near +2.0. It’s also the the lowest max there since 1991. Time Series Summary for Seattle Tacoma Area, WA (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Max Temperature Nov 1 to Mar 31 Peak ONI 1 1950-03-31 16 -1.5 2 1969-03-31 17 +1.1 3 1989-03-31 18 -1.8 4 1991-03-31 20 +0.4 - 1965-03-31 20 -0.6 5 1956-03-31 21 -1.7 6 2024-03-31 22 +1.9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm glad this fool was finally suspended. This toxic shit has gone on long enough. Care to explain how I nailed the NAO/AO last season and you whiffed on it??? I was going to say, his ego was his downfall, he was actually assuming you (or anyone else for that matter) actually thought his forecast was worth "copying." ffs his ego is so big he didn't even take a second to think that the pool of analogs would be small in a strong to very strong el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Unprecedented cold in Seattle for such a strong El Niño. This is the first time there with a daily high not getting above 22° with the ONI near +2.0. It’s also the the lowest max there since 1991. Time Series Summary for Seattle Tacoma Area, WA (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Max Temperature Nov 1 to Mar 31 Peak ONI 1 1950-03-31 16 -1.5 2 1969-03-31 17 +1.1 3 1989-03-31 18 -1.8 4 1991-03-31 20 +0.4 - 1965-03-31 20 -0.6 5 1956-03-31 21 -1.7 6 2024-03-31 22 +1.9 The only other el nino on that list is 1968-69...I wonder if this means anything for February? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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