El Nino 2023-2024

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

That explains why we had crazy wildfires over Canada this year and the numerous smoke days for us further south. I think at one point NYC was shrouded in smoke. That graph is pretty intriguing to me though. Obviously 2023 stands out like a sore thumb. But the downward trend in temperatures across Canada from 1942 to 1978 and the upward trend from 1978-1998 before it flatlined from 1998-present coincides well with the PDO phase. I'm surprised we didn't observe a similar downward trend in this current -PDO phase. 

I guess time will tell if the WPAC warm pool is transient or permanent. It's certainly been playing a role in the influx of warmer winters for us. When did it really start?  

That was in June and it was absolutely disgusting, we hit 500 the highest it can possibly ever be on the air quality index.

The last couple of years we've had dry springs, which has been nice, lower humidity and less bugs.  But the summers have been wet and very humid (after June.)

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

The rapid warming began in 1981. But March 2012 may have been the first time it became so pronounced. Then we had the record event in December 2015. Followed by the record MJO 4-7 activity continuing up to the present day. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4

https://www.weather.gov/media/lot/events/March2012/March_Heatwave_2012_final.pdf

 

https://phys.org/news/2021-04-distinctive-mjo-super-el-nino.html

 

 

 

a good question is what would it take to get rid of that WPAC warm pool?

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You seem to ignore the polar domain, which is likely since you largely failed to acknowledge how badly you whiffed on it last season...instead opting for denial in lieu of acceptance of the fact that you were right for the wrong reason.

I'm sure that that you'll resort to some line about how the PDO is more important than the NAO, but the fact of the matter is that polar fields are more often than not crucial during El Niño.

 

and the warm December in the east is no surprise, par for the course in el ninos.

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And I'm amused that you seem to think I went big winter in the east....I forecasted warm with near normal snowfall.

That's what I saw when I read your outlook too, a normal winter in terms of snowfall and backloaded for snow in February.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

He has a lot of anger for some reason.... reminds me of Stephen A with Cowboy fans? Maybe for the same reason?

Maybe he had a girlfriend on the east coast who broke up with him?

We can have a lot of fun with this....

 

You can't win with him if you live on the east coast.....first I get accused of copying his work, now I'm scoffed at because I "don't forecast anything and its the same every year"....well, then what does that say about his work if I am apparently plagiarizing his stuff? And how can I be copying him if I am apparently biased towards east coast snow and cold?? You compliment his efforts and it goes ignored....he's just a confrontation seeking missile. Its truly a bizarre, dysfunctional and maladaptive pattern of behavior.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can't win with him if you live on the east coast.....first I get accused of copying his work, now I'm scoffed at because I "don't forecast anything and its the same every year"....well, then what does that say about his work if I am apparently plagiarizing his stuff? And how can I be copying him if I am apparently biased towards east coast snow and cold?? You compliment his efforts and it goes ignored....he's just a confrontation seeking missile. Its truly a bizarre, dysfunctional and maladaptive pattern of behavior.

is he still claiming his old screen name wasn't Tacoman? I doubt there's more than one person in Albuquerque who is so obsessed with hating the east coast so much lol.

I saw what he said about your outlook-- funny that he had such specific commentary about it for someone who hasn't "read your outlook in years." 

I would also add narcissistic and obsessive to that list of words to describe him.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

is he still claiming his old screen name wasn't Tacoman? I doubt there's more than one person in Albuquerque who is so obsessed with hating the east coast so much lol.

I saw what he said about your outlook-- funny that he had such specific commentary about it for someone who hasn't "read your outlook in years." 

 What, you mean I-95 voodoo dolls aren't a thing in Albuquerque?

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That's what I saw when I read your outlook too, a normal winter in terms of snowfall and backloaded for snow in February.

 

I mean honestly, you even said that January wouldn't be all that great, mild to start and cold/possibly snowy to finish.... and according to the latest forecasts, it looks like that will work out well.

 

[donsutherland1]

That cities such as Boston, New York, and Philadelphia have seen below normal snowfall so far this winter does not necessarily mean that they will have a horrible season. Most of the seasonal snowfall during strong El Niño events falls after January 15th. For example, at New York City, approximately 75% of seasonal snowfall occurs after January 15th in such cases and 50% on or after February 1st.

For what it's worth, my seasonal snowfall guesses for select cities were as follows:

DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

11.5    15.0    27.5     27.0    38.5   85.0        56.5    1.2      70.0

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can't win with him if you live on the east coast.....first I get accused of copying his work, now I'm scoffed at because I "don't forecast anything and its the same every year"....well, then what does that say about his work if I am apparently plagiarizing his stuff? And how can I be copying him if I am apparently biased towards east coast snow and cold?? You compliment his efforts and it goes ignored....he's just a confrontation seeking missile. Its truly a bizarre, dysfunctional and maladaptive pattern of behavior.

Those of us who read your work and your commentary know the time, thought and effort that goes into your forecasts. There's no question that they are original content. Ignore the noise, don't let it bother you, and keep doing what you're doing.

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That cities such as Boston, New York, and Philadelphia have seen below normal snowfall so far this winter does not necessarily mean that they will have a horrible season. Most of the seasonal snowfall during strong El Niño events falls after January 15th. For example, at New York City, approximately 75% of seasonal snowfall occurs after January 15th in such cases and 50% on or after February 1st.

For what it's worth, my seasonal snowfall guesses for select cities were as follows:

DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

11.5    15.0    27.5     27.0    38.5   85.0        56.5    1.2      70.0

When there’s a +1.0 or higher ONI peak in fall/winter going back to late 1800s, Raleigh has had only 29% of their snow on average through Jan 20th. More details below:

-31 winters since 1888-9

-Nov avg: 0.2”

-Dec avg: 0.9”

-Jan 1-20 avg: 1.1”

-Jan 21-31 avg: 0.9”

-Feb avg: 2.4”

-Mar avg: 1.7”

-Apr avg: 0.4”

-So, Nov-Jan 20 avg: 2.2”

-So, Jan 21-Apr avg: 5.4”

-So, on average only 29% of SN falls at RDU through Jan 20th & 71% Jan 21st+

-Thus, a very long way to go.

-Regarding 6”+ storms for these 31 periods at RDU, median date not til Feb 10-11

-There have been more 6”+ events during these 31 there in Mar (4) than either Feb (3) or Jan (3)!

[GaWx]

Latest GLAAM forecast from CFS says El Niño like pattern returns late Jan til at least mid Feb:

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can't win with him if you live on the east coast.....first I get accused of copying his work, now I'm scoffed at because I "don't forecast anything and its the same every year"....well, then what does that say about his work if I am apparently plagiarizing his stuff? And how can I be copying him if I am apparently biased towards east coast snow and cold?? You compliment his efforts and it goes ignored....he's just a confrontation seeking missile. Its truly a bizarre, dysfunctional and maladaptive pattern of behavior.

I dont get the confrontation, I really dont. I mean we all want whats best for our backyards. And raindance definitely has weather knowledge, but his bashing of you and others is not cool. 

I mean, I hope all snow lovers get to enjoy some, Albuquerque included, but it seems as if he is getting joy out of hoping the east coast gets no snow. If a storm will give the east coast rain and me snow, of course I say let it rain in Boston! But if Im out of the game (as Albuquerque would be in any eastern storm), why would I care? I guess Ill be petty too....a warm, below avg snow winter here in MI is still colder and snowier than Albuquerque  

[Volcanic Winter]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Those of us who read your work and your commentary know the time, thought and effort that goes into your forecasts. There's no question that they are original content. Ignore the noise, don't let it bother you, and keep doing what you're doing.

Agree. It’s a holistic, exhaustive way of evaluating everything into a workable forecast. Idc if @40/70 Benchmarkis “wrong” or “right” in terms of verification, he puts a ton of work into it and follows a clearly identifiable overcurrent of logic. 

Works for me, I appreciate it. If nothing else it works as an outstanding overview of the parameters leading into the winter season. 

And for someone like me who lacks the depth of meteorological knowledge that many of you have, it’s a great learning tool (which is what I’m here for…).

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Agree. It’s a holistic, exhaustive way of evaluating everything into a workable forecast. Idc if @40/70 Benchmarkis “wrong” or “right” in terms of verification, he puts a ton of work into it and follows a clearly identifiable overcurrent of logic. 

Works for me, I appreciate it. If nothing else it works as an outstanding overview of the parameters leading into the winter season. 

And for someone like me who lacks the depth of meteorological knowledge that many of you have, it’s a great learning tool (which is what I’m here for…).

This is precisely what I was getting at in my response to raindance....it may not be the most consumable product due to the depth of it, but it helps me, along with others to learn. To be perfectly honest, I have learned the most from the blown forecasts.

[GaWx]

 With all of the snow predicted, the GFS, Euro, and CMC are suggesting Chicago may have a high below 0F early next week. Though the model assumptions have a tendency to bring down temperatures too much over fresh, generous snowcover, I wouldn’t rule out a high below 0 there with all of the snow predicted. The NWS currently isn’t yet buying it, however. About 15% or ~1 in 7 of their Jans have a high that cold. That’s 22 of them since 1873. The El Niño (along with their strength) Jans with one (10 of them out of ~50 (~20%) El Niño Jans) were:

1888 (weak), 1897 (strong), 1912 (moderate), 1924 (moderate), 1940 (moderate), 1942 (moderate), 1966 (strong), 1977 (weak), 1988 (strong earlier at its peak), and 2019 (weak). 2023 would be at/near strongest per ONI (though not per RONI, which may be the key) with a subzero high there if it were to occur. 

[so_whats_happening]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

a good question is what would it take to get rid of that WPAC warm pool?

 

It seems to be taming down just very slowly. I assume you are referencing the waters off Japan. If you are talking about near the Maritime Continent yea good luck with that one.

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

That cities such as Boston, New York, and Philadelphia have seen below normal snowfall so far this winter does not necessarily mean that they will have a horrible season. Most of the seasonal snowfall during strong El Niño events falls after January 15th. For example, at New York City, approximately 75% of seasonal snowfall occurs after January 15th in such cases and 50% on or after February 1st.

For what it's worth, my seasonal snowfall guesses for select cities were as follows:

DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

11.5    15.0    27.5     27.0    38.5   85.0        56.5    1.2      70.0

Wouldn't it be something if ORD and DTW pull some crazy totals coming up here. At least it seems to be setting up the colder pattern as we enter the second half of January.

[so_whats_happening]

Some pretty substantial trades are making there way to much of the Pacific last little bark right now in the far eastern Pacific.

[GaWx]

1. The ND MEI came in at +1.1. That’s quite a comeback from the mere +0.4 of SO. Actually, this 0.7 rise is the largest on record (back to 1979). I think this bodes well for Feb potential:

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

 

2. The 0Z GFS looks awfully close to a major SSW on 1/17.

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. The ND MEI came in at +1.1. That’s quite a comeback from the mere +0.4 of SO. Actually, this 0.7 rise is the largest on record (back to 1979). I think this bodes well for Feb potential:

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

 

2. The 0Z GFS looks awfully close to a major SSW on 1/17.

At this point for a major SSW I would expect it closer to February now, if at all. (Typical of what we have seen of recent SSW events) I originally thought mid month (January) way back in late November early December when we had our first warming take place. This does not look to be the case for a full split right now as the Atlantic is still not working for us. I was hopeful to see the larger storms and more cyclonic wave breaks happen in the last month but we just do no have it consistently happening. Who knows maybe we will have a little curveball thrown our way to help lock the pattern in. 

For it to be an actual split you need two distinct lobes. Pinching off a small section or stretching it out do not count as an official major SSW event. I should say not all major SSWs have a split occurring, there are times where the SPV it just obliterated by an exceptionally large wave 1 response this does not seem to be the case. As 40/70 Benchmark has stated Im not sure it will really matter too much going forward as the 500mb pattern that is setting up looks rather nice as we get to the second half of January and maybe continuing into February? The split would only help sustain the pattern longer. Will definitely be watching how it unfolds going forward.

[so_whats_happening]

Here is a nice visual for those who want vertical structure looks. The GFS run as of 1/09 has two distinct lobes in lower strat to about 30mb (20mb may be a stretch) so it does seem as though there are some connections that may happen for a bit to tropospheric weather patterns even with a non full split scenario.

https://www.stratobserve.com/fcst_ell_vert

[snowman19]

On 1/6/2024 at 9:59 PM, thunderbolt said:

True, but it’s not gonna come to fruition 2.0. Close, but no cigar. I can see December maybe January coming in at 2. But not February. and as you know you need three months straight of 2.0 also, I admire your work to also and your outlook so far is been spot on. Keep up the great work.

You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. None, clueless. You’re really, really bad at this. Stop, just stop. This is going to be an official trimonthly super El Niño. The ONI is for NDJ going to be over +2.0C (super). You lose, game over, give it up. You are making yourself look delusional and even more ridiculous 

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. None, clueless. You’re really, really bad at this. Stop, just stop. This is going to be an official trimonthly super El Niño. The ONI is for NDJ going to be over +2.0C (super). You lose, game over, give it up. You are making yourself look delusional and even more ridiculous 

, stop using a coral reef anyway, I hope you have a great week. You could always look forward to next year.lol0.82023-0.7-0.4-0.10.20.50.81.11.31.61.81.9

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

, stop using a coral reef anyway, I hope you have a great week. You could always look forward to next year.lol0.82023-0.7-0.4-0.10.20.50.81.11.31.61.81.9

Once again, you have no idea what you’re talking about. This is still going to be an official super El Niño. You lost, admit it. You’re embarrassing yourself right now. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. None, clueless. You’re really, really bad at this. Stop, just stop. This is going to be an official trimonthly super El Niño. The ONI is for NDJ going to be over +2.0C (super). You lose, game over, give it up. You are making yourself look delusional and even more ridiculous 

At least you get your money's worth in those 5PPD

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. The ND MEI came in at +1.1. That’s quite a comeback from the mere +0.4 of SO. Actually, this 0.7 rise is the largest on record (back to 1979). I think this bodes well for Feb potential:

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

 

2. The 0Z GFS looks awfully close to a major SSW on 1/17.

My call last fall:

 

The Eastern Mass Weather forecast is for a peak trimonthly ONI value between 1.7 and 1.9 during the OND trimonthly period with a peak bi-monthly MEI value of between 1.0 and 1.2.

I could end up a bit low if the ONI edges 2.0, but I think I'll at least be okay with respect to the MEI.

[thunderbolt]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Once again, you have no idea what you’re talking about. This is still going to be an official super El Niño. You lost, admit it. You’re embarrassing yourself right now. 

Enjoy your week buddy. with your 2.1. 2.3 lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Enjoy your week buddy. with your 2.1. 2.3 lol

We need to get you guys to just hug it out this spring.

[thunderbolt]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We need to get you guys to just hug it out this spring.

Lol

[George001]

26 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Enjoy your week buddy. with your 2.1. 2.3 lol

Snowman wasn’t right about it being east based, but he was correct about the strength. We are already at 1.9 ONI on the trimonthly, and unless the Nino rapidly weakens over the next couple of weeks NDJ is breaking 2.0, making this officially a super nino.