El Nino 2023-2024

[Stormchaserchuck1]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes it does...forcing is so far west that its into the eastern portion of the MC, which favors -PNA in conjunction with the antecedent -PDO.

Yeah.. you're right [default positive]

Counter intuitive to what you would expect in El Nino

I guess the relative difference is a strong indicator. 

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@raindancewxLikes to use local weather as confirmation of sensible analogs....well, look long and hard for a shit el Nino that buries interior SNE in early January...let me know when you find one. Looks a great deal like warmer versions 1966, 1987 and 2002 to me. Again, the warmth is not a surprise...no one expected a big cold/retention season with the strength of el Ninio/-PDO/ocean warmth combo.

Yep and we can also add in 1982-83 and 2015-16 as big dog analogs for what can happen in late January or February with a juiced up STJ timed right with an arctic shot at the most favorable time of year for snowfall.

 

[LibertyBell]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He isn't trolling...that was his forecast.

I feel dejavu with his annual threads, since they seem to be the same every season.

[Terpeast]

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I feel dejavu with his annual threads, since they seem to be the same every season.

Cold SW, warm East

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I feel dejavu with his annual threads, since they seem to be the same every season.

He implied he may go big for the east next year....east-based, high ACE La Nina. I do think raindance is very good....in his defense,  the east has been in a shitty stretch, so he been pretty accurate, but he def. seems like he enjoys it when the east struggles.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He implied he may go big for the east next year....east-based, high ACE La Nina. I do think raindance is very good....in his defense,  the east has been in a shitty stretch, so he been pretty accurate, but he def. seems like he enjoys it when the east struggles.

I think next year might be good too because of the la nina after el nino rule. Analogs like 95-96 and 10-11 come into play.

I always thought he likes it when the east struggles because it favors where he lives.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think next year might be good too because of the la nina after el nino rule. Analogs like 95-96 and 10-11 come into play.

I always thought he likes it when the east struggles because it favors where he lives.

 

I think it runs deeper than that....very adversarial and condescending tone for whatever reason.

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah.. you're right [default positive]

Counter intuitive to what you would expect in El Nino

I guess the relative difference is a strong indicator. 

I like how @bluewave described it....instead of viewing Lower MEI/RONI as a "weaker" El Nino or less coupled event, consider the lower values as a reflection of competing forces within the hemisphere....this year, said forces competing with warm ENSO are the residual cool ENSO GLAAM/PAC cold phase and west Pacific warm pool working in concert to displace forcing further west than otherwise implied by max SST anomalies within ENSO region.

[SnoSki14]

35 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Cold SW, warm East

That's been the reality since 2015 though.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like how @bluewave described it....instead of viewing Lower MEI/RONI as a "weaker" El Nino or less coupled event, consider the lower values as a reflection of competing forces within the hemisphere....this year, said forces competing with warm ENSO are the residual cool ENSO GLAAM/PAC cold phase and west Pacific warm pool working in concert to displace forcing further west than otherwise implied by max SST anomalies within ENSO region.

I mean.. that's some pretty incredible stuff. +VP at the dateline is +PNA, but El Nino is associated with -VP at the dateline.. We all know the strong ENSO/N. Pacific correlation.. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 1/6/2024 at 10:00 PM, raindancewx said:

Boston, NYC, Philly, DC all are above freezing, late at night, with a rainstorm / above freezing snowstorm with the NAO and AO negative, arguably near record lows on their indices in nearly mid-January during an El Nino. I wonder when that will sink in to everyone. Most of you seem to be in the "denial" stage of grief still. 

The PNA has a really strong correlation to warmth in the east in January.. >0.5
https://ibb.co/rZ5HkST

We just haven't been timing it right.. we got +pna in December when the correlation was 0.1, then on Jan 1-2 the pattern changed. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 1/6/2024 at 4:54 PM, raindancewx said:

WPO finished at the highest value on the index in several decades for December, just above December 2006. Dec 1982 had an extremely +WPO look as well, that's one of the reasons I liked it as a main analog.

Cold dump on the models is in the right place at the right time based on the lag from an intense +WPO tendency. The high value of the WPO juices up the correlation essentially. 

In September 2022, the AMO shattered records hitting +0.662 for the month. 2nd place was -0.536 in 1974 and +0.505 was the 2nd highest monthly positive reading. 

+15 months you see a good +WPO signal for December 2023:
https://ibb.co/WKN16kw

Which is also kind of a now-time +AMO indicator https://ibb.co/0qpS3t4

Feb posts a SE ridge, which is something I'm watching out for this year, as the mean of the last 6 February's in the PNA region has been +150dm (record). It will be interesting to see if that or the El Nino wins out this year.  

https://ibb.co/hs8h0T5

[Snowstorms]

On 1/5/2024 at 8:21 AM, bluewave said:

The May to December pattern which got stuck in place related to forcing and record SSTs in the WPAC was unprecedented especially for Canada. Finally some colder weather in Western and Central Canada as the MJO interaction with the El Niño is leading to more of a -PNA pattern for a time this month. This previous interaction served to enhance the Nino pattern in Canada. Now it’s creating more of a Niña-like pattern with cold in the West and Plains down into the US for a period coming up. 
 

 

That explains why we had crazy wildfires over Canada this year and the numerous smoke days for us further south. I think at one point NYC was shrouded in smoke. That graph is pretty intriguing to me though. Obviously 2023 stands out like a sore thumb. But the downward trend in temperatures across Canada from 1942 to 1978 and the upward trend from 1978-1998 before it flatlined from 1998-present coincides well with the PDO phase. I'm surprised we didn't observe a similar downward trend in this current -PDO phase. 

I guess time will tell if the WPAC warm pool is transient or permanent. It's certainly been playing a role in the influx of warmer winters for us. When did it really start?  

[GaWx]

Fwiw from the average of the last 48 CFS runs, a cool mid-Feb with a good portion of the E US 1-3 BN 2/11-18, which is during peak snow climo:

[GaWx]

Check today’s 0Z EPS out for Jan 17th! Are we going to sneak in an unexpected major SSW in 9 days? The mean has sunk to just +1 m/s (only the 12/25 and 12/26 runs lower and those were for early Jan) with probably 1/3 or so of the members below 0:

Compare to yesterday, when mean dipped only to +5:

 

For 1/17 on 0Z runs, GEPS and GEOS were at -1 while the GFS and FNMOC were at +4 and GEFS was at +8.

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Check today’s 0Z EPS out for Jan 17th! Are we going to sneak in an unexpected major SSW in 9 days? The mean has sunk to just 1 m/s (only the 12/25 and 12/26 runs lower and those were for early Jan) with probably 1/3 or so of the members below 0:

Compare to yesterday, when mean dipped only to 5:

I was wondering when you would get to that. Lol

Geps and Gefs both have a weak, if there is such a thing, split.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I was wondering when you would get to that. Lol

Geps and Gefs both have a weak, if there is such a thing, split.

 I was a bit slow today lol. Though 0Z GFS just missed it with a +4, it actually had a reversal days 15-16 instead.

 It looks like the 12Z GEPS is probably close to 0. The 0Z was at -1. Going to be interesting next few days following this. Could be implications for Feb, which already tends to have good climo in El Niño. But if reverses, it doesn’t look to be a strong reversal but probably a rather weak one. Regardless, I’d love to see it. Any reversal is significant and would be a surprise vs recent EPS runs.

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

That explains why we had crazy wildfires over Canada this year and the numerous smoke days for us further south. I think at one point NYC was shrouded in smoke. That graph is pretty intriguing to me though. Obviously 2023 stands out like a sore thumb. But the downward trend in temperatures across Canada from 1942 to 1978 and the upward trend from 1978-1998 before it flatlined from 1998-present coincides well with the PDO phase. I'm surprised we didn't observe a similar downward trend in this current -PDO phase. 

I guess time will tell if the WPAC warm pool is transient or permanent. It's certainly been playing a role in the influx of warmer winters for us. When did it really start?  

The rapid warming began in 1981. But March 2012 may have been the first time it became so pronounced. Then we had the record event in December 2015. Followed by the record MJO 4-7 activity continuing up to the present day. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4

https://www.weather.gov/media/lot/events/March2012/March_Heatwave_2012_final.pdf

 

https://phys.org/news/2021-04-distinctive-mjo-super-el-nino.html

 

 

 

[raindancewx]

On 1/7/2024 at 5:14 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@raindancewxLikes to use local weather as confirmation of sensible analogs....well, look long and hard for a shit el Nino that buries interior SNE in early January...let me know when you find one. Looks a great deal like warmer versions 1966, 1987 and 2002 to me. Again, the warmth is not a surprise...no one expected a big cold/retention season with the strength of el Ninio/-PDO/ocean warmth combo.

I do like to use analogs to verify weather. 1951-52 was one of my two main analogs. It's an East look to an El Nino with a -PDO and it had plenty of snow for you in this time frame. See how the southern part of your area got hosed, just like this week?

[raindancewx]

On 1/7/2024 at 5:37 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

yes, this is not the typical EP GoA blowtorch like those years had. this year will stray pretty far from those years on the mean

 

This is a strange post, and an example of why I said you're all in denial. Isn't that pattern a decent match to the temp profile we've had this month? It's not like it's warming up anytime soon here.  We have multiple days with lows in the teens coming and highs in the 30s/40s, with clouds and snow. I was ice skating on the Rio Grande at 2 pm in the afternoon today. It didn't really get above freezing for more than five minutes.

Minneapolis has never finished a DJF more than +7 from what I can see, so that +15 for DJF to date is going to regress back to the mean, but not it's like the five weeks of +15 is just going to vanish overnight either.

I'm always amused that you guys seem to think I went cold in the Southwest. I thought small pockets of the SE US and SW US could be a bit colder than 1F below long-term averages. I don't think any of you actually read what I write. I always come up with a composite in analogs and then exaggerate the warmth/cold to account for my instincts and observations. Last year I had the West cold, which was right. This year, I have the South generally +1 to -1, with the north warmer. I had MN to New England +3 on the low end, up to +5 if you take the blend of the raw analogs and the one anti-log. That looks fine for most of you given how warm December was, and how January has started.

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I do like to use analogs to verify weather. 1951-52 was one of my two main analogs. It's an East look to an El Nino with a -PDO and it had plenty of snow for you in this time frame. See how the southern part of your area got hosed, just like this week?

You seem to ignore the polar domain, which is likely since you largely failed to acknowledge how badly you whiffed on it last season...instead opting for denial in lieu of acceptance of the fact that you were right for the wrong reason.

I'm sure that that you'll resort to some line about how the PDO is more important than the NAO, but the fact of the matter is that polar fields are more often than not crucial during El Niño.

 

[brooklynwx99]

22 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

This is a strange post, and an example of why I said you're all in denial. Isn't that pattern a decent match to the temp profile we've had this month? It's not like it's warming up anytime soon here.  We have multiple days with lows in the teens coming and highs in the 30s/40s, with clouds and snow. I was ice skating on the Rio Grande at 2 pm in the afternoon today. It didn't really get above freezing for more than five minutes.

Minneapolis has never finished a DJF more than +7 from what I can see, so that +15 for DJF to date is going to regress back to the mean, but not it's like the five weeks of +15 is just going to vanish overnight either.

I'm always amused that you guys seem to think I went cold in the Southwest. I thought small pockets of the SE US and SW US could be a bit colder than 1F below long-term averages. I don't think any of you actually read what I write. I always come up with a composite in analogs and then exaggerate the warmth/cold to account for my instincts and observations. Last year I had the West cold, which was right. This year, I have the South generally +1 to -1, with the north warmer. I had MN to New England +3 on the low end, up to +5 if you take the blend of the raw analogs and the one anti-log. That looks fine for most of you given how warm December was, and how January has started.

i’m not in denial. you’re kidding yourself if you think the polar domain in the same as those years. that was my point… it’s not a canonical 500mb pattern. not sure why there’s can’t be any nuance in these discussions

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

This is a strange post, and an example of why I said you're all in denial. Isn't that pattern a decent match to the temp profile we've had this month? It's not like it's warming up anytime soon here.  We have multiple days with lows in the teens coming and highs in the 30s/40s, with clouds and snow. I was ice skating on the Rio Grande at 2 pm in the afternoon today. It didn't really get above freezing for more than five minutes.

Minneapolis has never finished a DJF more than +7 from what I can see, so that +15 for DJF to date is going to regress back to the mean, but not it's like the five weeks of +15 is just going to vanish overnight either.

I'm always amused that you guys seem to think I went cold in the Southwest. I thought small pockets of the SE US and SW US could be a bit colder than 1F below long-term averages. I don't think any of you actually read what I write. I always come up with a composite in analogs and then exaggerate the warmth/cold to account for my instincts and observations. Last year I had the West cold, which was right. This year, I have the South generally +1 to -1, with the north warmer. I had MN to New England +3 on the low end, up to +5 if you take the blend of the raw analogs and the one anti-log. That looks fine for most of you given how warm December was, and how January has started.

And I'm amused that you seem to think I went big winter in the east....I forecasted warm with near normal snowfall.

[raindancewx]

The AO and NAO are negative and the north is warm for the US, with Russia very cold, similar at times to 1997-98. The AO in particular was probably something like -2 or -3 on the index in January 1998. I don't know what the obsession is with the Arctic when we're in a pattern where clearly other factors are more dominant for our continent. 10 days ago you were all in a circle jerk about how we'd have the greatest SSW in history by now. We're in a pattern where there is plenty of Arctic influence...it's just been in Asia. My point is always that getting the Arctic setup right doesn't even matter in a lot of winters. Knowing that cold air will dump from the North Pole doesn't mean you know it will dump in the US, or for how long if it does.

[raindancewx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And I'm amused that you seem to think I went big winter in the east....I forecasted warm with near normal snowfall.

You don't really forecast anything. It's 40,000 words of blather followed by three maps that are dulled to the point that the composite shows +1 or -1 as your extremes, and you forecast 50 inches of snow in Boston every year. I haven't read anything you've written in years, but I'm sure this is still the case.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 1/7/2024 at 7:47 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes it does...forcing is so far west that its into the eastern portion of the MC, which favors -PNA in conjunction with the antecedent -PDO.

As forcing has remained anchored in the vicinity of region 4 on the western flank of El Niño, which  coincides approximately with MJO phase 7.

 

 

This represented a large portion of the rationale for expecting a fairly mild first month of meteorological winter.

Note the resemblance between the composite for MJO phase 7 during an El Niño:

 

 

 

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The AO and NAO are negative and the north is warm for the US, with Russia very cold, similar at times to 1997-98. The AO in particular was probably something like -2 or -3 on the index in January 1998. I don't know what the obsession is with the Arctic when we're in a pattern where clearly other factors are more dominant for our continent. 10 days ago you were all in a circle jerk about how we'd have the greatest SSW in history by now. We're in a pattern where there is plenty of Arctic influence...it's just been in Asia. My point is always that getting the Arctic setup right doesn't even matter in a lot of winters. Knowing that cold air will dump from the North Pole doesn't mean you know it will dump in the US, or for how long if it does.

1997-1998 is not a very good analog....the forcing is much further west, in fact so far west that it has enveloped some of the Maritime continent, which is why it has been warm.....this year has been far more similar to years like 2016, 1995, 2007and to a lesser degree 1973 in that regard. As far as the polar domain not guaranteeing anything, I agree....nothing is a lock. But it's important element to have on your side if looking for cold in the mid latitudes. There is some extended guidance getting a segment of the PV in the vicinity of Hudson Bay in the longer range, so we will see what happens. Could winter still suck in the east? Of course, but odds are better that it won't than many of the years that you have mentioned.

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

You don't really forecast anything. It's 40,000 words of blather followed by three maps that are dulled to the point that the composite shows +1 or -1 as your extremes, and you forecast 50 inches of snow in Boston every year. I haven't read anything you've written in years, but I'm sure this is still the case.

First of all, some of the past few seasons have shared some similarities that had Boston in the general vicinity of...you guessed it, 50" of snowfall.

2020-2021	38.6	0
2021-2022	54.0	0

People have different learning styles...and learning is kind of a prerequisite for forecasting. I learn by reading and writing, you apparently learn by looking out your window in order to devise myopic, parochial IMBY analogs....which have all yielded pretty similar results, BTW.

You do you-

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

This is a strange post, and an example of why I said you're all in denial. Isn't that pattern a decent match to the temp profile we've had this month? It's not like it's warming up anytime soon here.  We have multiple days with lows in the teens coming and highs in the 30s/40s, with clouds and snow. I was ice skating on the Rio Grande at 2 pm in the afternoon today. It didn't really get above freezing for more than five minutes.

Minneapolis has never finished a DJF more than +7 from what I can see, so that +15 for DJF to date is going to regress back to the mean, but not it's like the five weeks of +15 is just going to vanish overnight either.

I'm always amused that you guys seem to think I went cold in the Southwest. I thought small pockets of the SE US and SW US could be a bit colder than 1F below long-term averages. I don't think any of you actually read what I write. I always come up with a composite in analogs and then exaggerate the warmth/cold to account for my instincts and observations. Last year I had the West cold, which was right. This year, I have the South generally +1 to -1, with the north warmer. I had MN to New England +3 on the low end, up to +5 if you take the blend of the raw analogs and the one anti-log. That looks fine for most of you given how warm December was, and how January has started.

How is the ice safe to skate on the Rio Grande when Albuquerque is way above freezing almost every day? 

[thunderbolt]

Man that’s a lot of purple

[LibertyBell]

On 1/7/2024 at 8:44 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it runs deeper than that....very adversarial and condescending tone for whatever reason.

He has a lot of anger for some reason.... reminds me of Stephen A with Cowboy fans? Maybe for the same reason?

Maybe he had a girlfriend on the east coast who broke up with him?

We can have a lot of fun with this....