40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 59 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: Not disputing that whatsoever. Look what I said earlier. I see what you said. Its a deflection away from acknowledgment of the fact that the 2.0+ ONI crowd may be correct. Pointing out that there is not a "super" category is a strawman contention...its irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I really do not see an absence of east coast storm tracks. I'm not sure what Raindance is talking about there. While there have been inside runners, here have also been coastal storms, but that just hasn't been cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I see what you said. Its a deflection away from acknowledgment of the fact that the 2.0+ ONI crowd may be correct. Pointing out that there is not a "super" category is a strawman contention...its irrelevant. True, but it’s not gonna come to fruition 2.0. Close, but no cigar. I can see December maybe January coming in at 2. But not February. and as you know you need three months straight of 2.0 also, I admire your work to also and your outlook so far is been spot on. Keep up the great work. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Boston, NYC, Philly, DC all are above freezing, late at night, with a rainstorm / above freezing snowstorm with the NAO and AO negative, arguably near record lows on their indices in nearly mid-January during an El Nino. I wonder when that will sink in to everyone. Most of you seem to be in the "denial" stage of grief still. 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 NYC hit 60 in December with an AO near -3 too. I think it's oppositely correlating with the Pacific right now. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 7 hours ago, thunderbolt said: Let me also state, I respect you you’re probably one of the best posters on this format. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, raindancewx said: Boston, NYC, Philly, DC all are above freezing, late at night, with a rainstorm / above freezing snowstorm with the NAO and AO negative, arguably near record lows on their indices in nearly mid-January during an El Nino. I wonder when that will sink in to everyone. Most of you seem to be in the "denial" stage of grief still. It sunk in last summer, since I have expected the first half of winter to suck since then. How is it odd for the first half of winter to suck in an el Nino? Anyway, snowing nicely here just north of Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, thunderbolt said: True, but it’s not gonna come to fruition 2.0. Close, but no cigar. I can see December maybe January coming in at 2. But not February. and as you know you need three months straight of 2.0 also, I admire your work to also and your outlook so far is been spot on. Keep up the great work. Well, my call was for it to fall short, but it only needs to hang there through January to do it, not February. Thanks, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, raindancewx said: Boston, NYC, Philly, DC all are above freezing, late at night, with a rainstorm / above freezing snowstorm with the NAO and AO negative, arguably near record lows on their indices in nearly mid-January during an El Nino. I wonder when that will sink in to everyone. Most of you seem to be in the "denial" stage of grief still. I wouldn't call January 6th nearly mid-January. I don't live on the East coast either, but not sure what your vendetta is against them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 hours ago, thunderbolt said: Not disputing that whatsoever. Look what I said earlier. I get what you're saying, you're saying there is no such thing as a super. That all high end el ninos should be grouped together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: I wouldn't call January 6th nearly mid-January. I don't live on the East coast either, but not sure what your vendetta is against them. He somehow thinks that for him to get a lot of snow in Albuquerque the east coast needs to get little or no snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 hours ago, raindancewx said: Boston, NYC, Philly, DC all are above freezing, late at night, with a rainstorm / above freezing snowstorm with the NAO and AO negative, arguably near record lows on their indices in nearly mid-January during an El Nino. I wonder when that will sink in to everyone. Most of you seem to be in the "denial" stage of grief still. Just like you're in abject denial of climate change, eh Tacoman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Well, just got 6" of snow in 3 hours....the Raindance rule of winter being over for the east anytime a whale queefs in the Bering Sea strikes again. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It sunk in last summer, since I have expected the first half of winter to suck since then. How is it odd for the first half of winter to suck in an el Nino? Anyway, snowing nicely here just north of Boston. The city itself has literally had 0.03" below freezing with those storm as snow. They'll still be 60-90% below average ytd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Just like you're in abject denial of climate change, eh Tacoman? Who the fuck is tacoman? I don't live on these forums as a dimwitted foot soldier in the army of progressive cripples like you do. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Meanwhile, IRI models suggest a neutral ENSO around the Equinox. It'll be interesting to see if the Atlantic again has record and near record warmth. The Nino style quick hitting rains every 3 or 4 days continues in Texas with cooler than normal but not cold temps. The frequency is just enough to limit deep return of Gulf moisture, although tomorrow night into Tuesday morning, I-10 corridor from Baton Rouge to Panama City is in an enhanced risk with hatched tornadoes, where enough of a warm sector looks to come ashore. That extends to ECUSA Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, raindancewx said: Who the fuck is tacoman? I don't live on these forums as a dimwitted foot soldier in the army of progressive cripples like you do. really lost it there huh? lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, just got 6" of snow in 3 hours....the Raindance rule of winter being over for the east anytime a whale queefs in the Bering Sea strikes again. I was just going to say, there was a nice area of a foot plus from NE PA across NW NJ and into the Hudson Valley and then interior SNE. 3-4 inches per hour for 2-3 hours too. This is the kind of storm that portends well for late January through February for the coastal plain at the climo peak of snowfall season and a juiced up el nino STJ, Ray! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 17.5" just north of Boston. #eastbasedsupernino 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I was just going to say, there was a nice area of a foot plus from NE PA across NW NJ and into the Hudson Valley and then interior SNE. 3-4 inches per hour for 2-3 hours too. This is the kind of storm that portends well for late January through February for the coastal plain at the climo peak of snowfall season and a juiced up el nino STJ, Ray! @raindancewxLikes to use local weather as confirmation of sensible analogs....well, look long and hard for a shit el Nino that buries interior SNE in early January...let me know when you find one. Looks a great deal like warmer versions 1966, 1987 and 2002 to me. Again, the warmth is not a surprise...no one expected a big cold/retention season with the strength of el Ninio/-PDO/ocean warmth combo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @raindancewxLikes to use local weather as confirmation of sensible analogs....well, look long and hard for a shit el Nino that buries interior SNE in early January...let me know when you find one. Looks a great deal like 1966, 1987 and 2002 to me. He was clearly trolling. Don’t feed him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, Terpeast said: He was clearly trolling. Don’t feed him He isn't trolling...that was his forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He isn't trolling...that was his forecast. canonical EP Nino pattern for mid-January… right? RIGHT?? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: canonical EP Nino pattern for mid-January… right? RIGHT?? I think this season is rather unique in the sense that it has some east-based characteristics, but for the wrong reason.....it's because the forcing is so far west that it triggers MC interludes, which are also warm in the east. That is different from years like 1998 and 1983...I think 2016, 2007 and 1995 are similar in that regard. If you run the temp composite and look at east coast snowfall, it comes out similar to east-based years because it sucks. But the difference this year from especially 1995 and 2007 is the blocking. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @raindancewxLikes to use local weather as confirmation of sensible analogs....well, look long and hard for a shit el Nino that buries interior SNE in early January...let me know when you find one. Looks a great deal like warmer versions 1966, 1987 and 2002 to me. Again, the warmth is not a surprise...no one expected a big cold/retention season with the strength of el Ninio/-PDO/ocean warmth combo. Yes but big cities remain mild and mostly snow free. Even Boston got skunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Yes but big cities remain mild and mostly snow free. Even Boston got skunked. Right...I said INTERIOR SNE....Boston didn't do great in January 1987 and 2003, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right...I said INTERIOR SNE....Boston didn't do great in January 1987 and 2003, either. I just think that's what raindancewx was focusing on. Also there's no guarantee the Jan 15-22 period will produce, and if it doesn't, then it won't til February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think this season is rather unique in the sense that it has some east-based characteristics, but for the wrong reason.....it's because the forcing is so far west that it triggers MC interludes, which are also warm in the east. That is different from years like 1998 and 1983...I think 2016, 2007 and 1995 are similar in that regard. If you run the temp composite and look at east coast snowfall, it comes out similar to east-based years because it sucks. But the difference this year from especially 1995 and 2007 is the blocking. I don't know.. east-based, west-based doesn't really account for the -PNA pattern we have seen so far. East-based most impacts the NPH (North Pacific High)https://ibb.co/bR7r8Fv and we haven't really seen any signs of that so far. I think even going into February, a +PNA would be more likely than a GOA low (-NPH pattern). It just hasn't really been building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think this season is rather unique in the sense that it has some east-based characteristics, but for the wrong reason.....it's because the forcing is so far west that it triggers MC interludes, which are also warm in the east. That is different from years like 1998 and 1983...I think 2016, 2007 and 1995 are similar in that regard. If you run the temp composite and look at east coast snowfall, it comes out similar to east-based years because it sucks. But the difference this year from especially 1995 and 2007 is the blocking. yes, this is not the typical EP GoA blowtorch like those years had. this year will stray pretty far from those years on the mean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I don't know.. east-based, west-based doesn't really account for the -PNA pattern we have seen so far. East-based most impacts the NPH (North Pacific High)https://ibb.co/bR7r8Fv and we haven't really seen any signs of that so far. I think even going into February, a +PNA would be more likely than a GOA low (-NPH pattern). It just hasn't really been building. Yes it does...forcing is so far west that its into the eastern portion of the MC, which favors -PNA in conjunction with the antecedent -PDO. As forcing has remained anchored in the vicinity of region 4 on the western flank of El Niño, which coincides approximately with MJO phase 7. This represented a large portion of the rationale for expecting a fairly mild first month of meteorological winter. Note the resemblance between the composite for MJO phase 7 during an El Niño: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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