El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Would you say the week of 1/22-29 is going to be the coldest of the season, even moreso than any future cold that might come in February?

 

I didn’t mean that 1/22-29 is colder than 1/15-22 on the run as 1/15-22 is the coldest. I meant that 1/22-29 is the week that cooled off the most of any week vs what the prior run had.
 
 I’m not about to try to make a prediction of whether or not 1/15-22 will be the coldest of the entire winter. However, it will be during/near the coldest climo for many. So, should it end up as cold as what the EPS has, it would have a good shot at being the coldest week of the winter.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does it really matter if the PV splits, anyway? Maybe a wind reversal would make it tougher to recover, but other than that.....who cares? I mean, don't get me wrong....I would rather get the reversal, but I don't think it’s crucial.

Yeah, I’d much rather there be a wind reversal/major SSW than not. But would it actually be crucial for 2-4+ weeks later? Nobody knows. I just think it helps the odds.

[40/70 Benchmark]

53 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Yeah, I’d much rather there be a wind reversal/major SSW than not. But would it actually be crucial for 2-4+ weeks later? Nobody knows. I just think it helps the odds.

I would rather have it, too........definitely makes it easier to have staying power.

[Stx_Thunder]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

However, it will be during/near the coldest climo for many.

I actually thought many on here would've already been aware of that long standing climatological fact (concerning the northern hemisphere) when it comes to later Jan - early Feb every year.

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

I actually thought many on here would've already been aware of that long standing climatological fact (concerning the northern hemisphere) when it comes to later Jan - early Feb every year.

It can always be later in February, even towards the end of February like it was in 2015.

[Stx_Thunder]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It can always be later in February, even towards the end of February like it was in 2015.

The northern hemisphere warming trend climatologically starts near or by the end of February.

Keyword: start

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Stx_Thunder said:

I actually thought many on here would've already been aware of that long standing climatological fact (concerning the northern hemisphere) when it comes to later Jan - early Feb every year.

Actually, early to mid Jan has the coldest climo/longterm daily averages) by a small margin for areas like yours and mine. Further north into the NE US, the coldest climo of the year extends into early Feb.

[GaWx]

 The 0Z EPS is the coldest run yet for the E US in mid January. Thus, I expect today’s Euro Weekly for 1/15-22 to be the coldest yet for that week in the E US. After that week, we’ll see if 1/22-29 is colder than yesterday.

 Interestingly, 1/15-22 would likely be when the MJO is in or near phase 4, often a warm phase. But often doesn’t mean always. Consider Christmas of 2022 for example.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Actually, early to mid Jan has the coldest climo/longterm daily averages) by a small margin for areas like yours and mine. Further north into the NE US, the coldest climo of the year extends into early Feb.

When you look at records going all the back to the 1700s (using the Pennsylvania Weather Book), for Philadelphia and New York City, February tended to be the coldest month.  Our coldest recorded temperature is in the middle of February and it's also our snowiest month usually.

[Stx_Thunder]

38 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Actually, early to mid Jan has the coldest climo/longterm daily averages) by a small margin for areas like yours and mine. Further north into the NE US, the coldest climo of the year extends into early Feb.

Seeing data the past decades over TX since the 80s - recent, the coldest days have more commonly been in later Jan - early Feb. By later Feb, it usually starts warming down here in the state (some years quite rapidly by then especially in the southern half).

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Seeing data the past decades over TX since the 80s - recent, the coldest days have commonly been in later Jan - early Feb. By late Feb, it usually starts warming down here in the state (some years quite rapidly by then especially in the southern half).

I’m talking strictly about averages. For example, for Corpus Christi based on 1991-2020, normals are 58 and under 12/27-1/20. On Feb 1, normal is up to 59.6 and it is 61.0 on Feb 15. I got this info from here:

https://nowdata.rcc-acis.org/crp/

Choose daily normals and you’ll see the graph.

[GaWx]

 Some 0Z/6Z models like the 6Z GFS are suggesting a chance for a major SSW near midmonth like yesterday’s 0Z EPS was suddenly doing. 

[stadiumwave]

I'll be honest, I'm surprised at the magnitude of cold thats showing up on OP & Ensembles. I thought we'd get cold but was not sure deep cold was achievable this winter. But the OP & Ensemble signals are strong. 

And I'm referring to west of APPS. I'm not in northeast but the northeast does not have to have the deepest of the cold to get the winter storms with the -NAO block they're likely. If fact I'd argue if you want snow you certainly do not want the heart of the cold where it will be dryer 

[GaWx]

 The 0Z GEFS is forecasting easily the strongest Jan -NAO since 2011 and 2010:

 

The 0Z GEFS is forecasting a very strong -AO along with it:

 

 Along with these, it is forecasting a strong phase 4 MJO and a moderate -PNA.

 

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 0Z GEFS is forecasting easily the strongest Jan -NAO since 2011 and 2010:

 

The 0Z GEFS is forecasting a very strong -AO along with it:

 

 Along with these, it is forecasting a strong phase 4 MJO along with a moderate -PNA.

 

 

 

If you're a snowlover, wouldn't a warm Phase 4 MJO mess all of that up? Would hate to have all that blocking but too warm, smh

[GaWx]

48 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If you're a snowlover, wouldn't a warm Phase 4 MJO mess all of that up? Would hate to have all that blocking but too warm, smh

 Not necessarily. Last winter’s coldest (near Christmas) had a similarly strong MC MJO. Also, Jan 20-31 of 1978 had similar. MJO, just like most indices, tells us what usually happens as opposed to what nearly always happens. I should add that I haven’t seen a GEFS EPO forecast. Anyone see it? I suspect that might be negative, which would be favorable.

[Great Snow 1717]

19 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I saw that lol. That's what happens when you reply to posts as you go rather then read everything THEN reply 

I assumed a snowsquall impacted your ability to read that post..

[Great Snow 1717]

8 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I assumed a snowsquall impacted your ability to read that post..

Every time I hear/see the word snow squall I am reminded of the time I was chased by the police while in Canada..

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I assumed a snowsquall impacted your ability to read that post..

What is funny is our best snow of the season so far (1.7") was a snow squall warning Nov 27th. Glad there is plenty of potential in the upcoming pattern.

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

What the? The EPS mean for 1/17-18 fell sharply from yesterday’s +14 to today’s +6. There are ~~20% of members with a major SSW 1/15-19 vs only 5% yesterday. We know that the EPS has been strongly biased to the too weak side in recent weeks. So, I’m going to assume this is just a burp, especially with the other 0Z ensembles not showing this:

That sudden increase in members with a major SSW near midmonth is still there on today’s (1/4/23) 0Z EPS (just something to follow as it could impact Feb):

 

[raindancewx]

Nice snowy day today for me. Over an inch of snow at the airport officially. At the end of the day, the East based El Ninos and Modoki La Ninas are often pretty similar weather even though the traffic pattern in the Pacific is completely different. The premise of my forecast was you'd see alternating cold pockets/periods in the South and West throughout the winter. West from the -PDO, South from the El Nino. A normal El Nino would see alternating cold pockets East and South..

I'll repeat what I said the other day though - we're getting very close to the part of the pattern that can produce a fluky heavy snow event in the deep south.

[stadiumwave]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Not necessarily. Last winter’s coldest (near Christmas) had a similarly strong MC MJO. Also, Jan 20-31 of 1978 had similar. MJO, just like most indices, tells us what usually happens as opposed to what nearly always happens. I should add that I haven’t seen a GEFS EPO forecast. Anyone see it? I suspect that might be negative, which would be favorable.

 

Oh say it again!! 100% true!

I mean this is an unusual fall & winter for predictive indices. Why not? Lol

[so_whats_happening]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Not necessarily. Last winter’s coldest (near Christmas) had a similarly strong MC MJO. Also, Jan 20-31 of 1978 had similar. MJO, just like most indices, tells us what usually happens as opposed to what nearly always happens. I should add that I haven’t seen a GEFS EPO forecast. Anyone see it? I suspect that might be negative, which would be favorable.

If we can't agree yet that there is a lag between MJO phase and the effects toward mid latitude then I don't know what.

[bluewave]

On 12/21/2023 at 12:16 PM, Snowstorms said:

 

Canada is NOT cold right now lol. Most major cities are experiencing record breaking warmth this December. Not even 2015 was this warm. And this is "our source region" for cold out east. Most places are near or above freezing. 

See forecasts below for this upcoming week. These cities, more than 90-95% of the time, experience a white Christmas or at the very least some decent cold which is no where to be found this year. If you scroll down you'll find the averages too and will note how incredibly warm it is. 

Calgary, AB: 

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-52_metric_e.html

Edmonton, AB:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html

Regina, SK:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html

Saskatoon, SK:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html

Winnipeg, MB

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html 

Thompson (north Manitoba) 

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-34_metric_e.html

Moosonee, ON (right by Hudson Bay)

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-113_metric_e.html 

The May to December pattern which got stuck in place related to forcing and record SSTs in the WPAC was unprecedented especially for Canada. Finally some colder weather in Western and Central Canada as the MJO interaction with the El Niño is leading to more of a -PNA pattern for a time this month. This previous interaction served to enhance the Nino pattern in Canada. Now it’s creating more of a Niña-like pattern with cold in the West and Plains down into the US for a period coming up. 
 

 

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

If we can't agree yet that there is a lag between MJO phase and the effects toward mid latitude then I don't know what.

 I understand the concept of a lag from the MJO (tropics) to the mid latitudes. That makes perfect sense and thus I’m not disputing it. By the way, how many days is the average lag?
 
 But this is tricky imho. Check this out, the link to the MJO/US temperature composites that I look at:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

 

From that link, here are the DJF composites, for example:

 In the “Information” section linked below that goes along with these composites, it says nothing about lag between these composite maps and the respective phase noted for each map:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/readme.shtml

 As I see it, these composites aren’t actually disputing that there is a lag. Rather, they are the after effects of a lag. For example, let’s look at phase 8. The concurrent temperatures average BN in the E US. But in reality, these BN temperatures have to have been a result of a lag from what was earlier initiated in the tropics (an earlier MJO phase) rather than from phase 8, itself. I’m educatedly guessing that this earlier phase is 7 in a large % of cases since the MJO typically rotates counterclockwise.

 Which phase in a particular case would be dependent on the number of days of the lag for it. If the lag for a particular case is, say, 5 days, we need to see where the MJO was 5 days earlier for that case. Let’s say it was in phase 7 five days earlier. Let’s say it was BN in the E US five days later. Thus it was in reality the phase 7 of five days earlier rather than phase 8, itself, that lead to the BN E US five days later, which happened to be during phase 8. So, as I see it, what resulted in the BN in the E US during phase 8 actually likely originated from what was happening earlier in the tropics during phase 7.

 So, even though these composites show concurrent E US temps during phase 7 to average AN, that AN is apparently actually a lagged effect from an earlier phase (say phase 6 in many cases). Phase 7, itself, is probably associated with a BN E US but due to lag the BN doesn’t occur til the MJO has moved into phase 8.

 So, the E US warmth during phase 4/5/6 is likely largely a lagged effect from phase 3/4/5. The E US cold during phase 8/1/2 is likely largely a lagged effect from phase 7/8/1, etc.

 The extreme cold of 12/23-7/2022, which occurred during phase 5, was likely a lagged effect of phase 4 since it was mainly in phase 4 during 12/8-22/2022.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 0Z GEFS is forecasting easily the strongest Jan -NAO since 2011 and 2010:

 

The 0Z GEFS is forecasting a very strong -AO along with it:

 

 Along with these, it is forecasting a strong phase 4 MJO and a moderate -PNA.

 

 

 

Season it pretty much going as planned, so far....disturbed polar domain with -PDO...hopefully it yields some decent results as expected.

[stadiumwave]

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

If we can't agree yet that there is a lag between MJO phase and the effects toward mid latitude then I don't know what.

 

This is not 100% accurate. There is "sometimes" a lag that's either brief or moderate & there are times that there's hardly lag at all. 

I didn't read what yall were arguing about just your statement. "Sometimes" & at differing intervals is more accurate. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 1/4/2024 at 8:14 AM, stadiumwave said:

I'll be honest, I'm surprised at the magnitude of cold thats showing up on OP & Ensembles. I thought we'd get cold but was not sure deep cold was achievable this winter. But the OP & Ensemble signals are strong. 

And I'm referring to west of APPS. I'm not in northeast but the northeast does not have to have the deepest of the cold to get the winter storms with the -NAO block they're likely. If fact I'd argue if you want snow you certainly do not want the heart of the cold where it will be dryer 

Exact premise of my winter forecast. This blocking is not characteristic of major east-based El Nino events, which is the difference I kept harping on. Yes, the -PDO is similar to some of them, which is acknowledged. There are years with both, such as 1965-1966, which is a great analog.

This was clear to me last summer.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/august-enso-update-potential.html

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

This is not 100% accurate. There is "sometimes" a lag that's either brief or moderate & there are times that there's hardly lag at all. 

I didn't read what yall were arguing about just your statement. "Sometimes" & at differing intervals is more accurate. 

Actually, I think I’m largely in agreement with @so_whats_happening.Wouldn’t it make sense that there always (not just sometimes) is a lag (of however many days, which would vary from case to case) between what happens in the tropics/MJO and what happens in the middle latitudes (E US temperatures for example)?

 However, my agreement doesn’t mean that I shouldn’t still use those composite maps for concurrent. I think that’s where we disagree. It is tricky. So, for example, if we want to predict E US temperatures during an upcoming phase 8, I’d say going with BN makes sense based on the maps, which show concurrent US temperatures. That’s even though the BN temps were likely a result of a lag from phase 7.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I understand the concept of a lag from the MJO (tropics) to the mid latitudes. That makes perfect sense and thus I’m not disputing it. By the way, how many days is the average lag?
 
 But this is tricky imho. Check this out, the link to the MJO/US temperature composites that I look at:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

 

From that link, here are the DJF composites, for example:

 In the “Information” section linked below that goes along with these composites, it says nothing about lag between these composite maps and the respective phase noted for each map:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/readme.shtml

 As I see it, these composites aren’t actually disputing that there is a lag. Rather, they are the after effects of a lag. For example, let’s look at phase 8. The concurrent temperatures average BN in the E US. But in reality, these BN temperatures have to have been a result of a lag from what was earlier initiated in the tropics (an earlier MJO phase) rather than from phase 8, itself. I’m educatedly guessing that this earlier phase is 7 in a large % of cases since the MJO typically rotates counterclockwise.

 Which phase in a particular case would be dependent on the number of days of the lag for it. If the lag for a particular case is, say, 5 days, we need to see where the MJO was 5 days earlier for that case. Let’s say it was in phase 7 five days earlier. Let’s say it was BN in the E US five days later. Thus it was in reality the phase 7 of five days earlier rather than phase 8, itself, that lead to the BN E US five days later, which happened to be during phase 8. So, as I see it, what resulted in the BN in the E US during phase 8 actually likely originated from what was happening earlier in the tropics during phase 7.

 So, even though these composites show concurrent E US temps during phase 7 to average AN, that AN is apparently actually a lagged effect from an earlier phase (say phase 6 in many cases). Phase 7, itself, is probably associated with a BN E US but due to lag the BN doesn’t occur til the MJO has moved into phase 8.

 So, the E US warmth during phase 4/5/6 is likely largely a lagged effect from phase 3/4/5. The E US cold during phase 8/1/2 is likely largely a lagged effect from phase 7/8/1, etc.

 The extreme cold of 12/23-7/2022, which occurred during phase 5, was likely a lagged effect of phase 4 since it was mainly in phase 4 during 12/8-22/2022.

 

14 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

This is not 100% accurate. There is "sometimes" a lag that's either brief or moderate & there are times that there's hardly lag at all. 

I didn't read what yall were arguing about just your statement. "Sometimes" & at differing intervals is more accurate. 

 

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Actually, I think I’m largely in agreement with @so_whats_happening.Wouldn’t it make sense that there always (not just sometimes) is a lag (of however many days, which would vary from case to case) between what happens in the tropics/MJO and what happens in the middle latitudes (E US temperatures for example)?

 However, my agreement doesn’t mean that I shouldn’t still use those composite maps for concurrent. I think that’s where we disagree. It is tricky.

Sorry ill get back to these later on doing this on a cellphone is not going to work out so well lol