El Nino 2023-2024

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't think he's a denier though (I think he stated that he understands the rate of change proceeds at different rates in different places.)  I like more complete datasets too, and I think 1950 onwards is a good period to use since 1950 is when most of our records began to be kept in a more reliable way (it's also the beginning of the satellite era.)

 

......not saying him specifically but there are numerous people on these forums that downplay the impact of climate change. 

The temps should be compared to the entire available database as opposed to 30 year averages. Doing so would allow people to grasp the full impact that climate change has had and continues to have. 

 

[LibertyBell]

49 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

......not saying him specifically but there are numerous people on these forums that downplay the impact of climate change. 

The temps should be compared to the entire available database as opposed to 30 year averages. Doing so would allow people to grasp the full impact that climate change has had and continues to have. 

 

I dont like 30 year averages either, it's a very arbitrary number to use.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I dont like 30 year averages either, it's a very arbitrary number to use.

 

it skews the "numbers"

[stadiumwave]

0z Euro still has a clean SPV split at 10mb & 50mb

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

it skews the "numbers"

at the same time we can't use the entire climate history of every station either though because these are varying periods for different places so it would be an apples to oranges comparison (for example comparing Central Park to JFK airport, one's period of record began in the 1860s while the other's began in the 1950s lol.)  So I think at least doubling that recorded history period to 1950-onwards makes sense because most of our reliable airport stations began keeping records in the 1950s.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

at the same time we can't use the entire climate history of every station either though because these are varying periods for different places so it would be an apples to oranges comparison (for example comparing Central Park to JFK airport, one's period of record began in the 1860s while the other's began in the 1950s lol.)  So I think at least doubling that recorded history period to 1950-onwards makes sense because most of our reliable airport stations began keeping records in the 1950s.

I agree regarding the stations but the long term dataset would still provide worthwhile data to do comparisons. 

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I’m still amazed at how the EPS went from this on 12/26/23 run (mean down to -3 and highest rest of run only +16):

To this just 5 days later (12/31 run) (mean down only to +10 and lowest Jan 9th through end up at +17):

However, despite that, the 12/31 run overall is a significantly colder run for much of the US, including the E US, especially for this week:

 Week of 1/15-22:

12/26/23 run:

 

12/31/23 run:

 

Also, look at how cold on the 12/31/23 run is the week of 2/5-12, the coldest by a good margin in the E US of the four runs extending that far:

 The 1/1 Euro Weeklies have an even stronger SPV late Jan/early Feb with the ensemble mean right at climo then (see below). (Look in my quoted post to see how much weaker was the SPV on the 12/26 run.) The last two weeks of the run, 1/29-2/5 and 2/5-12, warmed notably in the E US vs yesterday’s run (connection to stronger SPV??).

 

 OTOH before that, the week of 1/15-22 on the 1/1 Weeklies got even colder in the E US with BN temps nearly everywhere (see below). This is now the coldest week of the run in the E US as a whole! Also, keep in mind that this is during about the coldest climo of the winter for many. Interestingly, the models are suggesting that the MJO will then be in the MC though hopefully weak. Last winter’s coldest E US was when it was in the MC. Though it appears there might then be a moderate -PNA, there looks to then be a strong -NAO/-AO largely running the show. The run for 1/15-22 from just 6 days earlier (12/26 run posted in my quoted post) had AN temps for most of the E US!

[snowman19]

Still going. Super ONI trimonthly for NDJ a near guarantee 

 

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Deniers are going to deny...

Lmao. Pointing out a fact or weather statistic makes you a denier. What have I got to deny? I live in an area with 4 distinct seasons & do my part at being friendly to the environment. Im all good. I forget that posting weather stats on a weather board offends some. 

[raindancewx]

I'd really like to see what the Canadian has for January. No update yet on Tropical Tidbits. Oh well.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lmao. Pointing out a fact or weather statistic makes you a denier. What have I got to deny? I live in an area with 4 distinct seasons & do my part at being friendly to the environment. Im all good. I forget that posting weather stats on a weather board offends some. 

Dude I already wrote that I was not referring to you lol

[Chinook]

The subtropical jet(s) have taken over the North America in the last 10 days with El Nino (my new loop.)

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Dec_21_31_2023_250mb_loop.html

[GaWx]

Latest WCS PDO up to -0.63, highest since late October:

[raindancewx]

A lot of disputed MJO movement on the models at the moment. I expect to see phase 4-6 again by Jan 20 or so. We'll see. Wave may die or have competing centers of influence before it gets there though.

CPC still looks on board with my outlook for January. I found 1993-94 was a pretty strong match to opposite conditions of this year when I did my outlook, so it makes sense to see the weird storm patterns and ongoing persisting heat to me up there. In the short term January 1973 has shown up on some of these CPC looks for the 6-10 and 8-14 ideas. I suspect we're actually getting very close to the part of the pattern that will support a huge, fluky snowstorm in the South ala 1973. I've been expecting that in the 1/15-2/15 time frame, if it is to happen.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

A lot of disputed MJO movement on the models at the moment. I expect to see phase 4-6 again by Jan 20 or so. We'll see. Wave may die or have competing centers of influence before it gets there though.

CPC still looks on board with my outlook for January. I found 1993-94 was a pretty strong match to opposite conditions of this year when I did my outlook, so it makes sense to see the weird storm patterns and ongoing persisting heat to me up there. In the short term January 1973 has shown up on some of these CPC looks for the 6-10 and 8-14 ideas. I suspect we're actually getting very close to the part of the pattern that will support a huge, fluky snowstorm in the South ala 1973. I've been expecting that in the 1/15-2/15 time frame, if it is to happen.

The period starting near the end of the 8-14 looks to be when the cold moves SE into the E US per the last several EPS runs. There are indications of an Arctic high plunging down into the N Plains ~1/16-7. And that interestingly enough looks to be when the MJO is in the MC phases. Note though that the EPS and CMC have only a weak/near or inside COD MC, which would allow for a better chance for cold then. OTOH, the GEFS is much warmer then in the E US, not surprising since it has a very strong MC MJO:

Note also that the GLAAM is per this CFS rising to a + soon afterward:

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

The period starting near the end of the 8-14 looks to be when the cold moves SE into the E US per the last several EPS runs. There are indications of an Arctic high plunging down into the N Plains ~1/16-7. And that interestingly enough looks to be when the MJO is in the MC phases. Note though that the EPS and CMC have only a weak/near or inside COD MC, which would allow for a better chance for cold then. OTOH, the GEFS is much warmer then in the E US, not surprising since it has a very strong MC MJO:

Note also that the GLAAM is per this CFS rising to a + soon afterward:

The 0Z EPS (bc) forecasted mid Jan mean phase 4 MJO amplitude has increased significantly since yesterday, not what I wanted to see for midmonth:

 Yesterday’s (1/2) EPS had ~1.00 (right on circle and then going inside it) phase 4 amp for 1/17:

 

Today’s (1/3) EPS has a well outside the circle ~1.65 phase 4 amp for 1/17 (hoping this is just a burp):

[raindancewx]

Canadian look for January is in finally. It has weakened the transition of the El Nino to the West, and has a much weaker, but east based look throughout Jan-Mar. By Apr-May, we are rapidly transitioning into an east based La Nina. I suspect the Spring will be a bit like 2005, but it's early.

The models have been forecasting to much warmth with this event for months, even at short ranges. So I think a faster collapse of the El Nino is possible. No reason to think we verify on the warm side of the Euro plume.

[michsnowfreak]

22 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Dude I already wrote that I was not referring to you lol

I saw that lol. That's what happens when you reply to posts as you go rather then read everything THEN reply 

[GaWx]

What the? The EPS mean for 1/17-18 fell sharply from yesterday’s +14 to today’s +6. There are ~~20% of members with a major SSW 1/15-19 vs only 5% yesterday. We know that the EPS has been strongly biased to the too weak side in recent weeks. So, I’m going to assume this is just a burp, especially with the other 0Z ensembles not showing this:

[GaWx]

 The Euro Weeklies for today are colder in the E US vs yesterday for all of the weeks covering 1/15-2/12. The week 1/22-29 is especially colder. Perhaps this is related to the weaker mean SPV at mid-month. It is somewhat surprising because the EPS MJO today is much stronger in phase 4 at midmonth.

[GaWx]

-The ONI for OND came in at +1.94, not quite super.

-The RONI for OND came in at +1.51, barely strong.

-Dec ERSST came in at +2.07 vs the Dec OISST of +1.99. So, ERSST continues to come in slightly warmer than OISST, which may be significant going forward as we see whether or not unrounded NDJ ONI comes in at +2.00+, which would give us a super.

-Nov ERSST was +2.02. So, to get a super for NDJ, Jan ERSST only needs to be +1.91. With the slightly cooler OISST now up at +2.10, I consider that chance to be high as of now.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Canadian look for January is in finally. It has weakened the transition of the El Nino to the West, and has a much weaker, but east based look throughout Jan-Mar. By Apr-May, we are rapidly transitioning into an east based La Nina. I suspect the Spring will be a bit like 2005, but it's early.

The models have been forecasting to much warmth with this event for months, even at short ranges. So I think a faster collapse of the El Nino is possible. No reason to think we verify on the warm side of the Euro plume.

Might be more like 2010 for the spring and summer based on the magnitude of the change.

 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, GaWx said:

-The ONI for OND came in at +1.94, not quite super.

-The RONI for OND came in at +1.51, barely strong.

-Dec ERSST came in at +2.07 vs the Dec OISST of +1.99. So, ERSST continues to come in slightly warmer than OISST, which may be significant going forward as we see whether or not unrounded NDJ ONI comes in at +2.00+, which would give us a super.

-Nov ERSST was +2.02. So, to get a super for NDJ, Jan ERSST only needs to be +1.91. With the slightly cooler OISST now up at +2.10, I consider that chance to be high as of now.

Is super an official designation? I'm not aware of that if it is.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I saw that lol. That's what happens when you reply to posts as you go rather then read everything THEN reply 

I do that too lol, there's just too much information to ingest than just reading everything and then replying.

[LibertyBell]

49 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The Euro Weeklies for today are colder in the E US vs yesterday for all of the weeks covering 1/15-2/12. The week 1/22-29 is especially colder. Perhaps this is related to the weaker mean SPV at mid-month. It is somewhat surprising because the EPS MJO today is much stronger in phase 4 at midmonth.

Would you say the week of 1/22-29 is going to be the coldest of the season, even moreso than any future cold that might come in February?

 

[stadiumwave]

12z CFS Weeklies just had its best looking 4-6 weeks on the model its had yet. 

[so_whats_happening]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Canadian look for January is in finally. It has weakened the transition of the El Nino to the West, and has a much weaker, but east based look throughout Jan-Mar. By Apr-May, we are rapidly transitioning into an east based La Nina. I suspect the Spring will be a bit like 2005, but it's early.

The models have been forecasting to much warmth with this event for months, even at short ranges. So I think a faster collapse of the El Nino is possible. No reason to think we verify on the warm side of the Euro plume.

Not even sure a modoki la nina pattern can be a thing but the warm pool in the subsurface near the dateline is not fading like we typically see, especially in what are considered east based events. Wonder if we hold a nice warm pool in region 4 and western 3.4 into next winter?

It does look like region 3 is about to cliff dive coming up through january.

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

-The ONI for OND came in at +1.94, not quite super.

-The RONI for OND came in at +1.51, barely strong.

-Dec ERSST came in at +2.07 vs the Dec OISST of +1.99. So, ERSST continues to come in slightly warmer than OISST, which may be significant going forward as we see whether or not unrounded NDJ ONI comes in at +2.00+, which would give us a super.

-Nov ERSST was +2.02. So, to get a super for NDJ, Jan ERSST only needs to be +1.91. With the slightly cooler OISST now up at +2.10, I consider that chance to be high as of now.

Some of the more intense trades we have seen so far are coming over the next 2 weeks. Looking like a race to see how long it can sustain itself. If region 3 begins to cool rapidly coming up the chances seem to fall quite a bit. Surprised december came in a little warmer than thought.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 1/2/2024 at 9:29 AM, GaWx said:

 The 1/1 Euro Weeklies have an even stronger SPV late Jan/early Feb with the ensemble mean right at climo then (see below). (Look in my quoted post to see how much weaker was the SPV on the 12/26 run.) The last two weeks of the run, 1/29-2/5 and 2/5-12, warmed notably in the E US vs yesterday’s run (connection to stronger SPV??).

 

 OTOH before that, the week of 1/15-22 on the 1/1 Weeklies got even colder in the E US with BN temps nearly everywhere (see below). This is now the coldest week of the run in the E US as a whole! Also, keep in mind that this is during about the coldest climo of the winter for many. Interestingly, the models are suggesting that the MJO will then be in the MC though hopefully weak. Last winter’s coldest E US was when it was in the MC. Though it appears there might then be a moderate -PNA, there looks to then be a strong -NAO/-AO largely running the show. The run for 1/15-22 from just 6 days earlier (12/26 run posted in my quoted post) had AN temps for most of the E US!

Does it really matter if the PV splits, anyway? Maybe a wind reversal would make it tougher to recover, but other than that.....who cares? I mean, don't get me wrong....I would rather get the reversal, but I don't think its crucial.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Is super an official designation? I'm not aware of that if it is.

 

I go by the unrounded ONI peaking at +2.00+. Others may define it differently.