El Nino 2023-2024

[stadiumwave]

0z EPS 11-15

 

MJO forecast not all that different from JAN, 2010 which is RED line. 

 

JAN, 2010 the block carrying over from DEC relaxed all but the first few days.

At this point a better block for JAN is showing up through mid-month as seen above verses JAN, 2010 (Late DEC & FEB were best -NAO blocks that winter). 

PNA had recovered a bit to more neutral in 2010,not so much now. So better -NAO block but stronger -PNA. Pattern may be pretty good for everyone west of APPS for the larger part. Strong cold shots possible in heartland. East of Apps still has a shot of winter weather with any secondary SLP's on the southern end of cold fronts. 

[mitchnick]

6z Gfs operational DOES split the pv after a wave 2 hit.

[stadiumwave]

Is anyone familar with the science behind this MJO page?

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

 

It's showing this for El Nino, JAN, Phase 2:

 

I see some similarities to the above image with the upcoming pattern. 

 

This for El Nino, JAN Phase 3....this is the one that took me for a loop...it's not bad at all:

 

This is La Nina, JAN, Phase 3:

 

Anyone know the accuracy?

[so_whats_happening]

53 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Is anyone familar with the science behind this MJO page?

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

 

It's showing this for El Nino, JAN, Phase 2:

 

I see some similarities to the above image with the upcoming pattern. 

 

This for El Nino, JAN Phase 3....this is the one that took me for a loop...it's not bad at all:

 

This is La Nina, JAN, Phase 3:

 

Anyone know the accuracy?

Translate it and up at the top you will see the reliability of each by color coding.

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

6z Gfs operational DOES split the pv after a wave 2 hit.

An insanely weak wave 2 response. We need to see this by hr 240 not 384 like we have seen posted several times.

You can see there was a chance but CWB activity on our side of the planet has been rather dismal. We have the SPV in a weakened state but still holding it's own.

[snowman19]

@GaWx Thinking tomorrow’s 3.4 weekly update is +2.1C 

[so_whats_happening]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@GaWx Thinking tomorrow’s 3.4 weekly update is +2.1C 

The weekly would be from the 20th-27th should average around 2 again.

Dec 21: 2.04

Dec 22: 1.97

Dec 23: 1.91

Dec 24: 1.95

Dec 25: 1.98

Dec 26: 1.99

Dec 27: 2.05

The first weekly into January should feature that 2.1.

 

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

The weekly would be from the 20th-27th should average around 2 again.

Dec 21: 2.04

Dec 22: 1.97

Dec 23: 1.91

Dec 24: 1.95

Dec 25: 1.98

Dec 26: 1.99

Dec 27: 2.05

The first weekly into January should feature that 2.1.

 

Possibly, yes. Then the question becomes the official ERSST, which has been running warmer than the OISST. CRW is over +2.2C FWIW….

 

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Possibly, yes. Then the question becomes the official ERSST, which has been running warmer than the OISST. CRW is over +2.2C FWIW….

 

Hard to know can't rely on one over another just going to have to wait and see. CRW is too erratic for my liking.

[so_whats_happening]

Was going to wait until tomorrow but I have a busy schedule the next few days, it shouldn't change too much at the end but we seem to be having a buoy issue again. That warmth near the dateline is just not going away.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

0z EPS 11-15

 

MJO forecast not all that different from JAN, 2010 which is RED line. 

 

JAN, 2010 the block carrying over from DEC relaxed all but the first few days.

At this point a better block for JAN is showing up through mid-month as seen above verses JAN, 2010 (Late DEC & FEB were best -NAO blocks that winter). 

PNA had recovered a bit to more neutral in 2010,not so much now. So better -NAO block but stronger -PNA. Pattern may be pretty good for everyone west of APPS for the larger part. Strong cold shots possible in heartland. East of Apps still has a shot of winter weather with any secondary SLP's on the southern end of cold fronts. 

Wow, I just drew that same parallel in the NE January thread haha.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We will need the NAO to hold stout like early in the 2010-2011 season to avoid a mid month warm up because the Pacific will go RNA.

 

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow, I just drew that same parallel in the NE January thread haha.

 

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

Translate it and up at the top you will see the reliability of each by color coding.

I know that. I'm just wondering about verification 

[stadiumwave]

12z EURO split SPV at 10mb & 50mb

EDIT: I'm wondering if this trends stronger again. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, stadiumwave said:

12z EURO split SPV at 10mb & 50mb

Nice Ninja! Lol

This can only help in extending the cold.

[mitchnick]

Geps for a split too.

[stadiumwave]

12z EPS Days 11-15....freaking beautiful 

 

Day 15

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

12z EURO split SPV at 10mb & 50mb

EDIT: I'm wondering if this trends stronger again. 

I continue to expect it.

[stadiumwave]

Add - 18z GEFS has now split at 10mb & 50mb

[stadiumwave]

 

[GaWx]

 I’m still amazed at how the EPS went from this on 12/26/23 run (mean down to -3 and highest rest of run only +16):

To this just 5 days later (12/31 run) (mean down only to +10 and lowest Jan 9th through end up at +17):

However, despite that, the 12/31 run overall is a significantly colder run for much of the US, including the E US, especially for this week:

 Week of 1/15-22:

12/26/23 run:

 

12/31/23 run:

 

Also, look at how cold on the 12/31/23 run is the week of 2/5-12, the coldest by a good margin in the E US of the four runs extending that far:

[GaWx]

1. Yesterday’s OISST 3.4 is making a good case for a super El Niño (+2.00+ ONI peak):

 

2. OTOH, the Dec OHC came in at only +1.11:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. Yesterday’s OISST 3.4 is making a good case for a super El Niño (+2.00+ ONI peak):

 

2. OTOH, the Dec OHC came in at only +1.11:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

If the ERSST continues its trend of running warmer than OISST, I would have to say that a trimonthly (unrounded) super peak for NDJ would be an extremely likely result

[raindancewx]

Subsurface heat for 100-180W continues to rapidly thin. It often peaks in November. Some examples of big Nov-Dec drop offs.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

Year    Oct      Nov     Dec

2023    1.13      1.45    1.11

2018     1.47     1.25    0.92

2015     1.91      1.78    1.20

2009     1.04     1.75    1.36

1997      2.56     2.30   1.02

1994      1.12      1.16     0.80

A decent blend to match Oct-Dec is:

1994     1.12      1.16      0.80

2009     1.04     1.75     1.36

Blend    1.08      1.46     1.08

2023     1.13       1.45      1.11

Here is how Dec 2023 finished btw. Generally above +3 above average north of I-40.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Since 1948, The MAM ONI to SON ONI has gone >+1.1 19 times (this is the 20th time). I had previously thought there was a strong tendency for ENSO-state to reverse the next year, but you guys way earlier in the thread showed that ENSO is probably more of a 1+ year continuum, albeit seasonal things like typical late-Winter weakening. Of those 19 events, 8/19 (42%) saw the same ENSO state the following year [+14 months NDJ ONI], 6/19 (32%) were Neutral, and 5/19 (26%) reversed to the opposite ENSO state. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Subsurface heat for 100-180W continues to rapidly thin.

It's warming in the central-subsurface a little bit again. A +3c pool isn't that much of a degradation off its highs. TAO/Triton is probably the best site to frequent for now time updates of the subsurface. 

[LibertyBell]

On 12/29/2023 at 12:13 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

Yeah, this is what I’ve seen discussed recently on Reddit too. Mold and fungus everywhere. Also, weird bugs replacing the native insect populations.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Homesteading/s/tcUBi9rZtS

The bugs really freak me out.

So these new insects we have that are eating our trees (lantern flies), the media is reporting that having these new giant Joro spiders coming up here from the south is good because they will eat the insects?

Does anyone in their right mind think it's a good idea to have giant spiders up here? I certainly do not.

I hope it does snow next weekend and it ends the possibilities of any of that happening.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 12/29/2023 at 2:05 PM, michsnowfreak said:

LMAO. There it is again. "Since 1970". Imagine how boring these maps would be if they didnt start in the brutally cold winters of the 1970s?

Detroit winters warmed 5.0F from 1970-2023...but Detroit winters COOLED 4.0F from 1930-1980. I have seen countless graphs starting in 1970, but NEVER ONCE have I seen 1930-80.

 

From 1880-2020, Detroit winters warmed 1.6F

From 1921-2020, Detroit winters warmed 0.6F.

 

The rolling 100-year avg, 1924-2023, warmed 1.2F and the entire POR, 1874-2023, warmed 2.0F. You can check ANY of that data on X-macis, a site which uses all of the actual weather data in the period of record (not only since 1970). "Since 1970" has been used for years, and it will continue to be the go-to because it will always show the most extreme warming.

 

I would rather use since 1950, but we know that all of these methods are imperfect because none of them shows a complete climate picture.

*the reason I would use 1950 as my starting point is that is when many of our airport records began and also when we started having a complete record of ENSO data.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I would rather use since 1950, but we know that all of these methods are imperfect because none of them shows a complete climate picture.

*the reason I would use 1950 as my starting point is that is when many of our airport records began and also when we started having a complete record of ENSO data.

 

Deniers are going to deny...

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Deniers are going to deny...

I don't think he's a denier though (I think he stated that he understands the rate of change proceeds at different rates in different places.)  I like more complete datasets too, and I think 1950 onwards is a good period to use since 1950 is when most of our records began to be kept in a more reliable way (it's also the beginning of the satellite era.)