El Nino 2023-2024

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Again...THANK YOU! I do not understand why the immediate knee jerk reaction for some is that if you dont believe that 50s in winter are the new normal in Minneapolis or it will never snow in NYC again, you dont believe in CC. Look at my above exchange with Libertybell...Liberty quotes a post on CC is real with a response, it sure is, my budding trees proves it...I discuss the well-documented flowering of trees in Jan 1932...and im told one random year in the 1930s doesnt prove anything. . Um Im not TRYING to prove anything, but yet your one random year of budding tree proves CC. No, your budding trees proves an excessively warm December pattern in a strong El Nino.

 

And I am well aware winter warming on the east coast is greater than MI, and Im sure the ocean plays a big role. I love our more stable climate in MI, but what I do find hard to believe is that everything on the EC is happening worse and worse every year. The 2010s were NYC snowiest decade on record and the 1950s were the LEAST. NYC never really seemed like a wintry place to begin with. They are a place that can get annihalted with a good snowstorm when the ingredients are right & I have no doubt that it wont be long before they do get a monster snowstorm as they are due (and of course when this happens, the usual crowd will freak and bombard with posts "just because we got this storm CC is still very real" and on and on). But I have to learn to just let the usual crowd be. As you have said, pretty much every one on here knows CC is real, there is just a group who can differentiate weather from climate and another group who will post every anecdote or non-fact checked story they can find. It would be fun to go back and read posts from Dec 2006-Jan 2007. I wonder if budding winter trees and snowless days were the new climate (before we were bombarded with a bunch of harsh winters the following decade). 

No the budding early has been happening for several years now and unfortunately it really damages flowering plants when they bud early and then the inevitable freeze comes-- and then they don't flower again when they're supposed to during the springtime.

The issue with allergies that happen from mold because of excessive rainfall is horrible and can be deadly, I woke up in the middle of the night back in November when I couldn't breathe and it was the most terrifying feeling in the world.  It's happened to others I know also, but it was the first time I personally experienced a constricted throat and man, that's nothing you ever want to feel in your life.

We've had record rainfall for several months now, including our all time 24 hour rainfall at JFK at the end of September and it hasn't stopped raining since.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

1987-88 was a second year El Niño that peaked late summer/early fall and then collapsed late winter/early spring. The following winter featured a strong La Niña event.

I remember because 1986-87 was also an el nino but of a totally different character, it was snowier, even though the real heavy snows missed us just to the south, starting with the Vet Day 1986 snowstorm.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, but it peaked insanely early...over the summer.

That decade was excessively weird, so many el ninos in the 80s, you'd think they'd be snowier, but noooo.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I dont disagree. I am wondering how many snow weenies, if they HAD to choose a snowless pattern, would take mild & dry vs cold & dry. Id absolutely take cold & dry, while I think many others would not. Cold & dry is still winter, especially here in the Great Lakes where there are lakes/water everywhere to freeze up and you can always get some LES. But I think MANY (especially in the general public moreso than a true weather enthusiast) see snow as the be all end all, and at the end of a winter, the lack of OR surplus of a snow will be a huge weight on how they view the winter, regardless of temps.

I literally have binders of every stat imagineable for Detroit, and can tell you that HERE, for whatever reason, December is becoming the less wintry month, esp with temps. We are not seeing any noticeable change in first/last freeze, first/last snow (in fact, Oct/May snow frequency is increasing), November is getting frequent cold snaps, Feb is getting tons of snow, Jan & Feb temps are nearly flat for the past 100 years...so I cannot figure out what causes the change in December. We have lucked into enough White Christmases, but avg temps are clearly on the up like a sore thumb compared to Nov, Jan, or Feb. So you add that unknown reason to the infamously hostile December strong nino climo and bam, welcome to Dec 2023. It would be cool to get a big climo guru from every region together and look at whats changing for the good and bad in each location. 

dry anything definitely over flooding rains.  People really need to rethink living near rivers anymore as they are now being forced out of their homes on a weekly basis.

 

[michsnowfreak]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No the budding early has been happening for several years now and unfortunately it really damages flowering plants when they bud early and then the inevitable freeze comes-- and then they don't flower again when they're supposed to during the springtime.

The issue with allergies that happen from mold because of excessive rainfall is horrible and can be deadly, I woke up in the middle of the night back in November when I couldn't breathe and it was the most terrifying feeling in the world.  It's happened to others I know also, but it was the first time I personally experienced a constricted throat and man, that's nothing you ever want to feel in your life.

We've had record rainfall for several months now, including our all time 24 hour rainfall at JFK at the end of September and it hasn't stopped raining since.

 

Make no mistake, it's a gross December here. We had snow on the ground Halloween night and the last 4 days of November but have not had any white ground in December, just occasional flakes. Nothing is budding or growing and we have not had near the rain that you've had so I will definitely give you that it is different and I'm not experiencing what you are first-hand. But if that is true about the mold, and I do see the excessive rain totals this month on the East Coast, I understand completely as I have bad allergies to mold. They're especially noticeable in the Spring or Fall. Mold of any kind is nothing to mess around with and can literally be deadly (esp when people have black mold in their home amd dont know it). I grew up with such a bad allergy to mold that my mom knew if I said i had a "mold headache" it was different than a regular headache. Sorry you're going through it.

[ORH_wxman]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That decade was excessively weird, so many el ninos in the 80s, you'd think they'd be snowier, but noooo.

The 1980s El Niños were a lot more prolific in the interior…I think especially for BOS to NYC. Down in DC area they were pretty solid. 
 

But up here you had near normal or slightly subpar in the ‘82-83, ‘86-87, and ‘87-88 Ninos along the coast with much better amounts relative to average in the interior. Exception might be the Cape in ‘86-87.
 

Problem with that decade was there weren’t any super prolific snow winters near the coast and several bottom 10% type winters. The old “not much upside but lots of downside” rule which is going to make for a rough decade. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 1980s El Niños were a lot more prolific in the interior…I think especially for BOS to NYC. Down in DC area they were pretty solid. 
 

But up here you had near normal or slightly subpar in the ‘82-83, ‘86-87, and ‘87-88 Ninos along the coast with much better amounts relative to average in the interior. Exception might be the Cape in ‘86-87.
 

Problem with that decade was there weren’t any super prolific snow winters near the coast and several bottom 10% type winters. The old “not much upside but lots of downside” rule which is going to make for a rough decade. 

I remember several of those winters were much better both north and south of here, and  NW of the city was a major mantra of that decade (Vet Day 1986 was typical) except for the major exception of February 1983.  That was THE HECS of my childhood and nothing measured up to that huge storm until January 1996 happened.  April 1982 also reached near mythic levels because of how late in the season it happened and just how cold it was.  We might not see another April 1982 type snowstorm/blizzard in our lifetimes (even the April Fools Day snowstorm, which delivered more snow in New England but was a bust here didn't have the kind of cold that April 1982 had.)

 

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Make no mistake, it's a gross December here. We had snow on the ground Halloween night and the last 4 days of November but have not had any white ground in December, just occasional flakes. Nothing is budding or growing and we have not had near the rain that you've had so I will definitely give you that it is different and I'm not experiencing what you are first-hand. But if that is true about the mold, and I do see the excessive rain totals this month on the East Coast, I understand completely as I have bad allergies to mold. They're especially noticeable in the Spring or Fall. Mold of any kind is nothing to mess around with and can literally be deadly (esp when people have black mold in their home amd dont know it). I grew up with such a bad allergy to mold that my mom knew if I said i had a "mold headache" it was different than a regular headache. Sorry you're going through it.

Yes and I'm afraid it's black mold, and here is the really weird thing, it stopped raining around 7 AM this morning and the sun came out for like an hour, but in that one hour, my allergies went away and have not come back all day.  I started noticing this a few years ago, with the mold and it's happened almost every time we're in a long duration rainy or even just drizzly pattern, that the mold gives me really bad allergies.  My sister has the same thing (with her its more about getting really bad headaches, with me its a stuffy nose and constricted throat-- although she's had the throat issue too.)  She lives in the Poconos and it's been pretty bad there too, so this is a regionwide thing right now.  YES MOLD HEADACHE-- THANK YOU-- THAT'S WHAT MY SISTER GETS-- AND WE DIDN'T PUT 2 AND 2 TOGETHER UNTIL WE REALIZED THAT HER MOLD HEADACHES AND MY BREATHING ISSUES HAPPENED ON THE SAME DAYS!

Normally as soon as April gets here the allergies begin (except when we have a dry spring, like the last couple have been), this time around they've persisted much later than I can ever remember.

I may have black mold, the other thing I noticed about it is when my steam heat turns on it sometimes causes an allergic attack (it doesn't happen every time though-- it's mostly if it turns on late at night-- around 3 or 4 am-- I'll wake up sneezing several times-- or that one time when I couldn't breathe for a few minutes.)

 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 1980s El Niños were a lot more prolific in the interior…I think especially for BOS to NYC. Down in DC area they were pretty solid. 
 

But up here you had near normal or slightly subpar in the ‘82-83, ‘86-87, and ‘87-88 Ninos along the coast with much better amounts relative to average in the interior. Exception might be the Cape in ‘86-87.
 

Problem with that decade was there weren’t any super prolific snow winters near the coast and several bottom 10% type winters. The old “not much upside but lots of downside” rule which is going to make for a rough decade. 

a lot of inside runner tracks perhaps with a prolonged +NAO-- which causes rain and mild for the coast followed by cold arctic shots followed by more rain and mild for the coast?

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Make no mistake, it's a gross December here. We had snow on the ground Halloween night and the last 4 days of November but have not had any white ground in December, just occasional flakes. Nothing is budding or growing and we have not had near the rain that you've had so I will definitely give you that it is different and I'm not experiencing what you are first-hand. But if that is true about the mold, and I do see the excessive rain totals this month on the East Coast, I understand completely as I have bad allergies to mold. They're especially noticeable in the Spring or Fall. Mold of any kind is nothing to mess around with and can literally be deadly (esp when people have black mold in their home amd dont know it). I grew up with such a bad allergy to mold that my mom knew if I said i had a "mold headache" it was different than a regular headache. Sorry you're going through it.

and I thought pollen allergies were bad (this is what I had when I was little) mold is a whole other level of evil.... winter was my only respite, no allergies between December and March, except so far for last winter and this winter (both were bad for mold).

Here's the really funny thing and something to ponder.... the last couple of years the allergies actually went away in spring..... April through June was great.... when it wasn't raining much and it was really dry.  The allergies came roaring back in July again when the big rains started.  But as long as it doesn't rain and isn't all that humid, everything's fine.  It can snow as much as it wants, snow doesn't bring on mold allergies either.  But any kind of liquid precip-- be it drizzle, fog, rain, etc-- and especially if the pattern is stuck for a couple of days-- it gets really bad.

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

and I thought pollen allergies were bad (this is what I had when I was little) mold is a whole other level of evil.... winter was my only respite, no allergies between December and March, except so far for last winter and this winter (both were bad for mold).

Here's the really funny thing and something to ponder.... the last couple of years the allergies actually went away in spring..... April through June was great.... when it wasn't raining much and it was really dry.  The allergies came roaring back in July again when the big rains started.  But as long as it doesn't rain and isn't all that humid, everything's fine.  It can snow as much as it wants, snow doesn't bring on mold allergies either.  But any kind of liquid precip-- be it drizzle, fog, rain, etc-- and especially if the pattern is stuck for a couple of days-- it gets really bad.

 

Yes rain definitely plays a huge part in mold. Spring is always worst for me. I hope you start feeling better soon. Snow melt (if it has been deep and long lasting) can cause snow mold on grass. But yes snow itself covers up everything including mold issues. So bring on the frozen landscape!

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yes rain definitely plays a huge part in mold. Spring is always worst for me. I hope you start feeling better soon. Snow melt (if it has been deep and long lasting) can cause snow mold on grass. But yes snow itself covers up everything including mold issues. So bring on the frozen landscape!

Do you have dehumidifiers now? It's what was recommended for me, so I'm going to get a couple of them and see if they solve this issue.  I think it may have gained a foothold in my house because it's been much worse the last couple of years than it was before.  And sometimes it happens even when the weather is dry but my steam heat turns on, so that alarmed me.

Winter when there's some sort of snow cover is always the best time of year for me, not only does everything look prettier, there's no insects coming inside and no allergies! Yay lol.

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Do you have dehumidifiers now? It's what was recommended for me, so I'm going to get a couple of them and see if they solve this issue.  I think it may have gained a foothold in my house because it's been much worse the last couple of years than it was before.  And sometimes it happens even when the weather is dry but my steam heat turns on, so that alarmed me.

Winter when there's some sort of snow cover is always the best time of year for me, not only does everything look prettier, there's no insects coming inside and no allergies! Yay lol.

A dehumidifier will be a HUGE help with your mold issues. I run a dehumidifier in my basement year round. Although it only runs when it needs to, so it rarely runs in the winter. Winter air is often dry in Michigan, so running a humidifier in your bedroom when you sleep is recommended as well. Have to find the perfect balance lol.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

A dehumidifier will be a HUGE help with your mold issues. I run a dehumidifier in my basement year round. Although it only runs when it needs to, so it rarely runs in the winter. Winter air is often dry in Michigan, so running a humidifier in your bedroom when you sleep is recommended as well. Have to find the perfect balance lol.

Yeah I'm really looking for one upstairs plus one for the basement (if there is a mold issue in my steam heating it likely started in the basement), plus reinforcing some of the insulation because when the wind blows, my doors slam shut lol.  It gets really windy here (regardless of the season) and that always blows in whatever allergies are happening outside, so a double layer of protection seems like a good idea.

I was using a space heater as a de facto dehumidifier in my bedroom haha..... probably not the best idea.  But I would go to sleep with the steam heater aimed at my face to keep the mold away (it actually worked but I always woke up dehydrated and with a headache anyway even when the space heater was on an automatic setting to only turn on when my room temp fell below 75.)

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

That decade was excessively weird, so many el ninos in the 80s, you'd think they'd be snowier, but noooo.

+PDO period, but also +NAO.

[raindancewx]

I believe this will be the warmest December on record for the lower 48. Most of the northern lower 48 will finish +3 to +15. It's probably something like +8F for the northern states, and +3F for the southern US.

Locally we've had some slightly cold days recently. We'll probably finish Dec between +2 and +3. I put the +/-0F line for seasonal anomalies in my winter outlook half way into the yellow areas of the SE and SW US, so that still looks on target. I thought the rest of the country would be quite warm. Warm El Nino months in the Southwest are largely a reflection of diminished diurnal ranges from higher dew points. We've not dropped below 20 yet - which is fairly unusual here. But every winter on record has fallen to at least 19. I'm sure we'll get there at least once.

The highlands of Mexico have seen the traditional east based El Nino effects in some respects, despite also matching the -PDO look I showed before. The central highlands as far south as 20N have had highs in the mid-50s this month with rainy days, despite being at relatively low altitudes, like 6,000 feet. During the drier periods when the subtropical jet has shifted north, they have some lows in the 30s as well.

 

[stadiumwave]

On 12/27/2023 at 7:26 PM, raindancewx said:

Tropical Tidbits has waters by Peru running below average now. Some cooling building West. If you remember March 2023, you had a period of rapid subsurface warming. This December is largely opposite. March was severely cold in the West and very stormy. Been warm and fairly quiet this month.

Early December, when the rising heat content was rising before reversing was certainly cooler for most than the more recent days. For what it's worth, the heat content should continue to rapidly thin...and sure enough the CFS has another +15 type month for areas in the Northern Plains in January at the moment.

 

CFS making its final moves for JAN prediction in its monthlies:

 

Pulled the warm anomaly bubble a little NW.

 

 

Thought this was interesting:

 

[raindancewx]

I actually think January should be a relaxed continuation of December. Still warm in the North, cooler South, but not 15F above average anywhere. There should be actual honest to goodness cold somewhere in the South in January.

I think you'll see some northward expansion of the southern cold at times into both the East and West, with alternating troughs. What CPC has for early January is pretty close to my outlook for January from October. Didn't really have a warm month. The CFS frames for Dec 26-28 look too warm to me for January.

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I actually think January should be a relaxed continuation of December. Still warm in the North, cooler South, but not 15F above average anywhere. There should be actual honest to goodness cold somewhere in the South in January.

I think you'll see some northward expansion of the southern cold at times into both the East and West, with alternating troughs. What CPC has for early January is pretty close to my outlook for January from October. Didn't really have a warm month. The CFS frames for Dec 26-28 look too warm to me for January.

The look up colder than average in the south and warmer than average in the north has been showing up fairly steadily, so I certainly believe its a likely scenario. But keep in mind average temperatures are way colder in the north, so actual temps will still be colder in the north, just not as much of a gradient. 

[stadiumwave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

That decade was excessively weird, so many el ninos in the 80s, you'd think they'd be snowier, but noooo.

80-81, 83-84, 84-85, 87-88 were big snow years in the extreme lower OV. 

[stadiumwave]

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

A strong High pressure in the N. Pacific ocean during the cold season is not usually an El Nino pattern. Looking at the long range models, we are going to have that feature through Jan 15th, and that is going to give us a net +epo/-pna for Dec 1-Jan 15, which compares to only 2 El Nino Winters: 65-66 and 72-73. 

If you look at the whole El Nino event to-date, there is no N. Pacific Ocean trough south of Alaska! 

https://ibb.co/LxKM678

In fact, the strongest pattern in the whole Hemisphere is a ridge over the N. Pacific warm pool (-PDO)! Considering the El Nino is around +2.1c, that's not a high correlation to its normal effects.

Models are showing a strong N. Pacific High pressure (-PNA) Jan 5-13 [18z GEFS]: I composed a list of 15 analogs that had a -PNA/El Nino or [minus]+PNA/La Nina during that time, and see that the pattern usually reverses in the N. Pacific Ocean after. 

The roll-forward shows the Pacific pattern usually flips quickly after 1/14.  By 1/19 it's +PNA. And by 1/25 it's -EPO.

500mb roll forward Animation: https://ibb.co/xzVYnx5

So ENSO-weighted analogs show that the N. Pacific pattern we are seeing on LR models is a temporary, and not permanent feature. Let's see if this reversal carries through. 

Here are US Temps in the roll forward: https://ibb.co/kGL4bZp

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Our line of demarcation is the end of January, if nothing of significance (say, an event of 3" or greater) happens by January's end, the winter will very likely be below normal snowfall here.  Average snowfall here is around 25" so that would mean under 20" and most likely under 12"

[stadiumwave]

0z Euro starts to split SPV at 10mb & 50mb on day 10 (end of run).

 

 

 

[chubbs]

I posted a chart s couple of weeks ago upthread which showed roughly 5F of winter warming at Detroit Metro Airport since it opened in 1958. Looks like many of us are in the same 5F boat.

[GaWx]

On 12/27/2023 at 3:05 PM, GaWx said:

Based on the tweet from Allan saying only 20% major SSWs on today’s 0Z EPS, here’s what some of us have been waiting for to see if it agreed: it seems to be in agreement in being much less impressive in early Jan! The mean dips down only to +5 on Jan 6th vs yesterday’s -3:

 

 

Compare that to the very impressive run from yesterday at 0Z, what then was about the most impressive yet with a dip of the mean to -3 on Jan 6th:

 

So, that means that today’s 0Z EPS, GEFS, GEPS, FNMOC ens, and GFS are all less impressive than 24 hours ago. Will we now get a @mitchnickstyle reversal tomorrow? Stay tuned!

 Yesterday’s 0Z EPS mean (0Z 12/28/23 run, latest available as of now on these graphs) went even further from the expectation of a major SSW in early Jan with only 4 members (8%) having one vs 20% on the 0Z 12/27 run per Allan. This 8% is only two days after the most impressively weak SPV for any 0Z run in early Jan, the 0Z 12/26 run (see 2nd of two graphs just above this in quoted post), a most unexpected turn of events!

[Terpeast]

At least the SPV stays weak for a while

[GaWx]

 I’m still amazed at how the Euro weeklies went from this trend, which covers through the 12/24 run:

 

followed by the strongest signal for an early Jan major SSW (the 12/26 run), to the weakest signal for an early Jan major, the 12/28 run as noted in my post earlier this morning. Simply astounding!

[stadiumwave]

33 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

At least the SPV stays weak for a while

 

GFS OP & GEFS both advertising another warming strat warming episode beginning on the heels of this & really ramping up by mid-Jan. If so then no doubt stays weak a long while. 2nd warming may deliver the goods if it occurs.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

A strong High pressure in the N. Pacific ocean during the cold season is not usually an El Nino pattern. Looking at the long range models, we are going to have that feature through Jan 15th, and that is going to give us a net +epo/-pna for Dec 1-Jan 15, which compares to only 2 El Nino Winters: 65-66 and 72-73. 

If you look at the whole El Nino event to-date, there is no N. Pacific Ocean trough south of Alaska! 

https://ibb.co/LxKM678

In fact, the strongest pattern in the whole Hemisphere is a ridge over the N. Pacific warm pool (-PDO)! Considering the El Nino is around +2.1c, that's not a high correlation to its normal effects.

Models are showing a strong N. Pacific High pressure (-PNA) Jan 5-13 [18z GEFS]: I composed a list of 15 analogs that had a -PNA/El Nino or [minus]+PNA/La Nina during that time, and see that the pattern usually reverses in the N. Pacific Ocean after. 

The roll-forward shows the Pacific pattern usually flips quickly after 1/14.  By 1/19 it's +PNA. And by 1/25 it's -EPO.

500mb roll forward Animation: https://ibb.co/xzVYnx5

So ENSO-weighted analogs show that the N. Pacific pattern we are seeing on LR models is a temporary, and not permanent feature. Let's see if this reversal carries through. 

Here are US Temps in the roll forward: https://ibb.co/kGL4bZp

My number one analog....my issue with 1972 was/is the polar domain.