El Nino 2023-2024

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Global warming is absolutely happening. There isn't any debate.

Looks like Judah Cohen is still expecting a SSW and subsequent PV split, though he admits its far from a certainty.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

And again, this is not the end all.....you need more to go right to save winter in the east, but it helps.

What is Cohen's batting average??? 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Just compare each decade with previous decades and you'll get your answer. 

Warming has been steady if not accelerating and though cold/snowy periods still occur their frequency has diminished greatly. 

As things warm the frequency of wetter years will also go up. And though dry periods will occur, our region as a whole will see average rainfall totals go up. 

The last couple of years our dry periods seem to be happening in spring-- April through about June, and then it's back to very wet again by July.  I like my hot dry summers and if it's not going to snow in winter it should just be sunny, but we're not getting that either, and it's really bad for those of us who are very sensitive to allergies.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

What is Cohen's batting average??? 

Probably as good as anyone else's.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Like I said, even if we don't meet the technical definition and see a reversal, the PV will be weak. This is the difference between many of those really meager starts amongst warm ENSO events. Hell, maybe we still whiff like last year despite ample blocking, but what I do know is that it won't be due to a record RNA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

 "I also included January 2015 that technically did not achieve major warming status, may have actually been an extreme stretched PV event, but does resemble the current event in evolution in the polar stratosphere.  But to my eye the event that looks most similar to the current event, at least as predicted by the models, is February 2010 and it has the advantage of being also a moderate to strong El Niño winter".

-Cohen

Maybe it all goes to shit and winter blows again, but at least I know I'm not crazy.

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

again random isolated seasons don't mean anything when you look at the long term, and what we are seeing is a massive change over the long term.

You completely missed the point. Anecdotes don’t mean crap (see the Minneapolis example from above…warmest winter in record there is like 135 years ago). Yes, we’re warmer on average than decades ago but this would’ve been a shit pattern regardless of CC. Maybe we would’ve been +3 instead of +5 if it was several decades ago. Michsnowfreak was pointing how funny that random article talking about a warm Christmas in Minneapolis as if that’s the new normal…no, it’s not the “new normal”. The warm records are easier to break because of CC but an excessively warm December pattern in an El Niño doesn’t represent a new normal. These discussions are pretty dumb in a seasonal thread as it is…take it to the CC forum if you want to argue that 50s in the northern plains is a modern day normal. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You completely missed the point. Anecdotes don’t mean crap (see the Minneapolis example from above…warmest winter in record there is like 135 years ago). Yes, we’re warmer on average than decades ago but this would’ve been a shit pattern regardless of CC. Maybe we would’ve been +3 instead of +5 if it was several decades ago. Michsnowfreak was pointing how funny that random article talking about a warm Christmas in Minneapolis as if that’s the new normal…no, it’s not the “new normal”. The warm records are easier to break because of CC but an excessively warm December pattern in an El Niño doesn’t represent a new normal. These discussions are pretty dumb in a seasonal thread as it is…take it to the CC forum if you want to argue that 50s in the northern plains is a modern day normal. 

I'm actually more focused on precip than temperatures, although both matter.

It's become horrible here over several years with the excessive rainfall, damage to people's properties and mold, mildew and moss problems (all year round now.)  There is no break from the allergies anymore, not even during winter.

The horrible pattern has existed for several years now, not just this year.

The Northern Plains is much more resistant to change than the east is-- they are protected from the rapid changes occurring in heat content over the oceans (which is driving our much higher humidity and rainfall totals that are the new normal.)

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You completely missed the point. Anecdotes don’t mean crap (see the Minneapolis example from above…warmest winter in record there is like 135 years ago). Yes, we’re warmer on average than decades ago but this would’ve been a shit pattern regardless of CC. Maybe we would’ve been +3 instead of +5 if it was several decades ago. Michsnowfreak was pointing how funny that random article talking about a warm Christmas in Minneapolis as if that’s the new normal…no, it’s not the “new normal”. The warm records are easier to break because of CC but an excessively warm December pattern in an El Niño doesn’t represent a new normal. These discussions are pretty dumb in a seasonal thread as it is…take it to the CC forum if you want to argue that 50s in the northern plains is a modern day normal. 

Society gets carried away with CC when we have these runs of shit-winters, which we have always had. We were due for a horrendous decade, like the 50s and 80s...and yes, they are warmer now then they were then....because the globe IS warming. 

[LibertyBell]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Society gets carried away with CC when we have these runs of shit-winters, which we have always had. We were due for a horrendous decade, like the 50s and 80s...and yes, they are warmer now then they were then....because the globe IS warming. 

nono I lived through the 80s it was entirely different, yes it was snowless, BUT, it was MUCH colder back then it is now and aside from 1983, the rainfall was MUCH less and the growing season was MUCH shorter thankfully much fewer allergies.

This is much more to do with the excessive rainfall and the much longer growing season and rising amount of allergies.  I'm seriously considering spraying everything with bleach to destroy this new "growth"

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

nono I lived through the 80s it was entirely different, yes it was snowless, BUT, it was MUCH colder back then it is now and aside from 1983, the rainfall was MUCH less and the growing season was MUCH shorter thankfully much fewer allergies.

This is much more to do with the excessive rainfall and the much longer growing season and rising amount of allergies.  I'm seriously considering spraying everything with bleach to destroy this new "growth"

We just had a dry year last year. We also had some serious wet years 2000-2012 too. Hell even the 50s had wet years. I think there’s a little recent confirmation bias coming in. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We just had a dry year last year. We also had some serious wet years 2000-2012 too. Hell even the 50s had wet years. I think there’s a little recent confirmation bias coming in. 

We did? I wish... there have been a couple of dry months here and there but unfortunately the rainfall numbers have been going up.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyannualprecip.pdf

Have a look here Scott. It gives the full climate record of rainfall at Central Park.

2012 is what I'd consider the last drier than normal year (under 40 inches)

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

nono I lived through the 80s it was entirely different, yes it was snowless, BUT, it was MUCH colder back then it is now and aside from 1983, the rainfall was MUCH less and the growing season was MUCH shorter thankfully much fewer allergies.

This is much more to do with the excessive rainfall and the much longer growing season and rising amount of allergies.  I'm seriously considering spraying everything with bleach to destroy this new "growth"

All I implied. Enough said.

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We did? I wish... there have been a couple of dry months here and there but unfortunately the rainfall numbers have been going up.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyannualprecip.pdf

Have a look here Scott. It gives the full climate record of rainfall at Central Park.

2012 is what I'd consider the last drier than normal year (under 40 inches)

 

I looked at blue hill which is considered the crème of the crop for obs. Looked at top yearly precipitation. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

You completely missed the point. Anecdotes don’t mean crap (see the Minneapolis example from above…warmest winter in record there is like 135 years ago). Yes, we’re warmer on average than decades ago but this would’ve been a shit pattern regardless of CC. Maybe we would’ve been +3 instead of +5 if it was several decades ago. Michsnowfreak was pointing how funny that random article talking about a warm Christmas in Minneapolis as if that’s the new normal…no, it’s not the “new normal”. The warm records are easier to break because of CC but an excessively warm December pattern in an El Niño doesn’t represent a new normal. These discussions are pretty dumb in a seasonal thread as it is…take it to the CC forum if you want to argue that 50s in the northern plains is a modern day normal. 

Again...THANK YOU! I do not understand why the immediate knee jerk reaction for some is that if you dont believe that 50s in winter are the new normal in Minneapolis or it will never snow in NYC again, you dont believe in CC. Look at my above exchange with Libertybell...Liberty quotes a post on CC is real with a response, it sure is, my budding trees proves it...I discuss the well-documented flowering of trees in Jan 1932...and im told one random year in the 1930s doesnt prove anything. . Um Im not TRYING to prove anything, but yet your one random year of budding tree proves CC. No, your budding trees proves an excessively warm December pattern in a strong El Nino.

 

And I am well aware winter warming on the east coast is greater than MI, and Im sure the ocean plays a big role. I love our more stable climate in MI, but what I do find hard to believe is that everything on the EC is happening worse and worse every year. The 2010s were NYC snowiest decade on record and the 1950s were the LEAST. NYC never really seemed like a wintry place to begin with. They are a place that can get annihalted with a good snowstorm when the ingredients are right & I have no doubt that it wont be long before they do get a monster snowstorm as they are due (and of course when this happens, the usual crowd will freak and bombard with posts "just because we got this storm CC is still very real" and on and on). But I have to learn to just let the usual crowd be. As you have said, pretty much every one on here knows CC is real, there is just a group who can differentiate weather from climate and another group who will post every anecdote or non-fact checked story they can find. It would be fun to go back and read posts from Dec 2006-Jan 2007. I wonder if budding winter trees and snowless days were the new climate (before we were bombarded with a bunch of harsh winters the following decade). 

[snowman19]

23 hours ago, roardog said:

I'm not sure it's going to quite make the super tri monthly but it won't be too far off. Good job staying with your prediction even when things weren't looking great. Super Nina and extreme -PDO next year? 

[Volcanic Winter]

29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Again...THANK YOU! I do not understand why the immediate knee jerk reaction for some is that if you dont believe that 50s in winter are the new normal in Minneapolis or it will never snow in NYC again, you dont believe in CC. Look at my above exchange with Libertybell...Liberty quotes a post on CC is real with a response, it sure is, my budding trees proves it...I discuss the well-documented flowering of trees in Jan 1932...and im told one random year in the 1930s doesnt prove anything. . Um Im not TRYING to prove anything, but yet your one random year of budding tree proves CC. No, your budding trees proves an excessively warm December pattern in a strong El Nino.

 

And I am well aware winter warming on the east coast is greater than MI, and Im sure the ocean plays a big role. I love our more stable climate in MI, but what I do find hard to believe is that everything on the EC is happening worse and worse every year. The 2010s were NYC snowiest decade on record and the 1950s were the LEAST. NYC never really seemed like a wintry place to begin with. They are a place that can get annihalted with a good snowstorm when the ingredients are right & I have no doubt that it wont be long before they do get a monster snowstorm as they are due (and of course when this happens, the usual crowd will freak and bombard with posts "just because we got this storm CC is still very real" and on and on). But I have to learn to just let the usual crowd be. As you have said, pretty much every one on here knows CC is real, there is just a group who can differentiate weather from climate and another group who will post every anecdote or non-fact checked story they can find. It would be fun to go back and read posts from Dec 2006-Jan 2007. I wonder if budding winter trees and snowless days were the new climate (before we were bombarded with a bunch of harsh winters the following decade). 

My only real contention here is that people constantly reference “snowfall” as the end all be all, and I definitely understand that in a “results” sense. 

But there’s more to a winter than purely snowfall, at least from my perspective. While it’s true NYC isn’t the most wintry location in the CONUS by comparison, I also don’t really think using snowfall is the only way to evaluate that. Going back to prior decades shows a much colder DJF average than what we’re seeing today. NYC definitely had a Humid Continental Climate by definition, whereas now it does not. The line between CFa and DFa is thin so disregard that in a vacuum, but the actual DJF averages were substantially colder. Definitely a much more wintry temperature profile. 

Evaluating an area’s winter climate solely by snowfall averages is only half of it, IMO - and the early 2000’s - 2010’s were definitely a period that leveraged the warming in a productive way regarding snowfall. But as @bluewave has attested with data backing it up, it’s been something of a devil’s bargain as we trade consistency for “all or nothing” seasons. High snowfall or low to no snowfall, with a loss of near average. I definitely weigh consistency a bit more than going a couple years with almost nothing to then have a blockbuster season, but I also know others would take that trade so it’s purely a preferential thing for me (preferring more moderate winters / overall consistency). 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

My only real contention here is that people constantly reference “snowfall” as the end all be all, and I definitely understand that in a “results” sense. 

But there’s more to a winter than purely snowfall, at least from my perspective. While it’s true NYC isn’t the most wintry location in the CONUS by comparison, I also don’t really think using snowfall is the only way to evaluate that. Going back to prior decades shows a much colder DJF average than what we’re seeing today. NYC definitely had a Humid Continental Climate by definition, whereas now it does not. The line between CFa and DFa is thin so disregard that in a vacuum, but the actual DJF averages were substantially colder. Definitely a much more wintry temperature profile. 

Evaluating an area’s winter climate solely by snowfall averages is only half of it, IMO - and the early 2000’s - 2010’s were definitely a period that leveraged the warming in a productive way regarding snowfall. But as @bluewave has attested with data backing it up, it’s been something of a devil’s bargain as we trade consistency for “all or nothing” seasons. High snowfall or low to no snowfall, with a loss of near average. I definitely weigh consistency a bit more than going a couple years with almost nothing to then have a blockbuster season, but I also know others would take that trade so it’s purely a preferential thing for me (preferring more moderate winters / overall consistency). 

I dont disagree. I am wondering how many snow weenies, if they HAD to choose a snowless pattern, would take mild & dry vs cold & dry. Id absolutely take cold & dry, while I think many others would not. Cold & dry is still winter, especially here in the Great Lakes where there are lakes/water everywhere to freeze up and you can always get some LES. But I think MANY (especially in the general public moreso than a true weather enthusiast) see snow as the be all end all, and at the end of a winter, the lack of OR surplus of a snow will be a huge weight on how they view the winter, regardless of temps.

I literally have binders of every stat imagineable for Detroit, and can tell you that HERE, for whatever reason, December is becoming the less wintry month, esp with temps. We are not seeing any noticeable change in first/last freeze, first/last snow (in fact, Oct/May snow frequency is increasing), November is getting frequent cold snaps, Feb is getting tons of snow, Jan & Feb temps are nearly flat for the past 100 years...so I cannot figure out what causes the change in December. We have lucked into enough White Christmases, but avg temps are clearly on the up like a sore thumb compared to Nov, Jan, or Feb. So you add that unknown reason to the infamously hostile December strong nino climo and bam, welcome to Dec 2023. It would be cool to get a big climo guru from every region together and look at whats changing for the good and bad in each location. 

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 "I also included January 2015 that technically did not achieve major warming status, may have actually been an extreme stretched PV event, but does resemble the current event in evolution in the polar stratosphere.  But to my eye the event that looks most similar to the current event, at least as predicted by the models, is February 2010 and it has the advantage of being also a moderate to strong El Niño winter".

-Cohen

Maybe it all goes to shit and winter blows again, but at least I know I'm not crazy.

After reading his entire summary, the funny thing is the jist I got was very similar to what the much more maligned Larry Cosgrove has been saying for a while. Much cooler start to Jan (but not cold), then getting milder towards mid month (not Dec mild), then winter may really roar in later in Jan into Feb.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December recap and January preview...

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/12/very-mild-december-prompts-change-to.html

 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The last couple of years our dry periods seem to be happening in spring-- April through about June, and then it's back to very wet again by July.  I like my hot dry summers and if it's not going to snow in winter it should just be sunny, but we're not getting that either, and it's really bad for those of us who are very sensitive to allergies.

 

wait until it gets bad for those with sensitivity to tick borne deadly pathogens and brain eating amoebas 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

After reading his entire summary, the funny thing is the jist I got was very similar to what the much more maligned Larry Cosgrove has been saying for a while. Much cooler start to Jan (but not cold), then getting milder towards mid month (not Dec mild), then winter may really roar in later in Jan into Feb.

Larry had a bad year last season, but he had been on a good run.

[michsnowfreak]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Larry had a bad year last season, but he had been on a good run.

Hopefully he's right lol. I wonder if this could be similar weather wise to 2006-07?

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Hopefully he's right lol. I wonder if this could be similar weather wise to 2006-07?

I had it double-weighted in my composite, but this season is blockier.

[donsutherland1]

NYC snowfall statistics for strong El Niño winters. Slow starts to the snow season are generally the rule. Around three-fourths of seasonal snowfall in such winters occurs after January 15th.

[thunderbolt]

Bye-bye

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wait until it gets bad for those with sensitivity to tick borne deadly pathogens and brain eating amoebas 

funny not funny that you said the thing about ticks....

My sister has a pool at her house and a deer fell into it and drowned while she was away.  Anyway in the month since that deer died, there has been a tick infestation at her property and she had to buy and use tick spray because in the month following that deer dying in her pool she found no less than 6 ticks on her.  Finding 6 ticks would freak anyone out and she took to spraying her clothes with this chemical that causes a burning sensation on your skin.

They were different kinds of ticks, a very small black tick and a larger tick that was probably a Lonestar tick.

I've also been reading about both the brain eating amoeba and a skin eating bacteria spreading through the south.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

NYC snowfall statistics for strong El Niño winters. Slow starts to the snow season are generally the rule. Around three-fourths of seasonal snowfall in such winters occurs after January 15th.

1987-88 is a weird exception to this rule.

Was that a second year el nino?

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

My only real contention here is that people constantly reference “snowfall” as the end all be all, and I definitely understand that in a “results” sense. 

But there’s more to a winter than purely snowfall, at least from my perspective. While it’s true NYC isn’t the most wintry location in the CONUS by comparison, I also don’t really think using snowfall is the only way to evaluate that. Going back to prior decades shows a much colder DJF average than what we’re seeing today. NYC definitely had a Humid Continental Climate by definition, whereas now it does not. The line between CFa and DFa is thin so disregard that in a vacuum, but the actual DJF averages were substantially colder. Definitely a much more wintry temperature profile. 

Evaluating an area’s winter climate solely by snowfall averages is only half of it, IMO - and the early 2000’s - 2010’s were definitely a period that leveraged the warming in a productive way regarding snowfall. But as @bluewave has attested with data backing it up, it’s been something of a devil’s bargain as we trade consistency for “all or nothing” seasons. High snowfall or low to no snowfall, with a loss of near average. I definitely weigh consistency a bit more than going a couple years with almost nothing to then have a blockbuster season, but I also know others would take that trade so it’s purely a preferential thing for me (preferring more moderate winters / overall consistency). 

I'd very happy with dry of any kind, it's all this rain that really stinks and now people are being forced to leave their homes with the unprecedented levels of flooding we're having.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1987-88 is a weird exception to this rule.

Was that a second year el nino?

Yes, but it peaked insanely early...over the summer.

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1987-88 is a weird exception to this rule.

Was that a second year el nino?

1987-88 was a second year El Niño that peaked late summer/early fall and then collapsed late winter/early spring. The following winter featured a strong La Niña event.