El Nino 2023-2024

[Typhoon Tip]

12 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

50mb is stretched and knocked around but doesn’t look like a SSWE to me. 

Yeah, it's not abundantly clear these warm intrusions are settling downward out in time. 

Meanwhile, ... we may have a -AO going on over the course of the next 45 days from other factors forcing the domain;  I'm sure we'll be reading tweet after tweet after tweet connecting the two without that downwelling 

[ORH_wxman]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Did I ever say climate change was not taking place?   It always kills me that whenever a joke of a story is mocked it means the person mocking it doesn't believe in climate change. Hell a troll can say something like "the climate will warm 30° in 2 decades" and people calling bs will be told they dont believe in climate change. The whole point is the inability to separate weather events from climate in the mainstream is ridiculous. 

It’s become embarrassing at this point…some of the responses when you point out a hyperbolic article. 

[michsnowfreak]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s become embarrassing at this point…some of the responses when you point out a hyperbolic article. 

For 25 years Ive watched almost every weather event blamed on climate change. Anytime there is anomalous warmth, no snow on Christmas, a low snow month, or especially a top 20 warm month, I can 100% guarantee that any story referencing it will discuss climate change. However in those 25 years we have also had brutal winters, record snow years, record cold snaps and impressive winter storms. Since these are newsworthy items, they definitely got coverage at the time, but they almost always come with a preface "just because record lows were smashed does not mean climate change is not happening" or something like that. The entire thing has become embarrassing and it's exactly why so many dont take it seriously. Such irony that those most passionate about climate change are only hurting themselves when they fall hook, line, and sinker for any and every clickbait story. 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

For 25 years Ive watched almost every weather event blamed on climate change. Anytime there is anomalous warmth, no snow on Christmas, a low snow month, or especially a top 20 warm month, I can 100% guarantee that any story referencing it will discuss climate change. However in those 25 years we have also had brutal winters, record snow years, record cold snaps and impressive winter storms. Since these are newsworthy items, they definitely got coverage at the time, but they almost always come with a preface "just because record lows were smashed does not mean climate change is not happening" or something like that. The entire thing has become embarrassing and it's exactly why so many dont take it seriously. Such irony that those most passionate about climate change are only hurting themselves when they fall hook, line, and sinker for any and every clickbait story. 

The empirical data speaks for itself. I don’t think anyone in this thread believes CC isn’t happening. But on a science-based forum, you’d expect a bit more rigor on the subject. 
 

Anecdotes are fun for clickbait but they aren’t climate science. 
 

If people want some more fun warm Minneapolis anecdotes, I suggest they Google “winter of 1877-78 Minneapolis”

[michsnowfreak]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The empirical data speaks for itself. I don’t think anyone in this thread believes CC isn’t happening. But on a science-based forum, you’d expect a bit more rigor on the subject. 
 

Anecdotes are fun for clickbait but they aren’t climate science. 
 

If people want some more fun warm Minneapolis anecdotes, I suggest they Google “winter of 1877-78 Minneapolis”

Amen! Agree 100%. I mean literally LAST Christmas was below zero in Minneapolis and the extend of white Christmas in the US was greater than normal. 2022 was Detroits 5th coldest Christmas with a high of 16 (& 4" snow on the ground) and 2023 was 5th warmest with a high of 54. Yet an unusually warm snowless period centering on such a big day as Christmas is absolute gold for those into the dramatic anecdotes. 

 

1877-78 was a strong nino I heard. The region had hideously warm Decembers in 1877, 1881, & 1889.

[raindancewx]

Tropical Tidbits has waters by Peru running below average now. Some cooling building West. If you remember March 2023, you had a period of rapid subsurface warming. This December is largely opposite. March was severely cold in the West and very stormy. Been warm and fairly quiet this month.

Early December, when the rising heat content was rising before reversing was certainly cooler for most than the more recent days. For what it's worth, the heat content should continue to rapidly thin...and sure enough the CFS has another +15 type month for areas in the Northern Plains in January at the moment.

[Chinook]

We are nearly one month into winter for the long-expected El Nino. How close are we to the typical impacts on precipitation? Not a whole lot of precipiation for E Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, or Nevada. So, not necessarily 100% correlation on the precipitation. Also, a drought has developed at my place in the last US Drought Monitor

 

 

[raindancewx]

One of the more interesting things about this event has been the conflict between the -PDO and the El Nino. In Mexico, this month, we have a dead on match to -PDO conditions. In the US, the incredible warmth in the Dakotas and MN is very much a match to stronger El Nino years, and not at all a match to the -PDO years. I said in my outlook that -PDO is a cold December signal in old Mexico, while a warm Nino 3.4 is a cold Feb signal in old Mexico. I really think they may have a much colder winter than the US relative to their local averages.

[Typhoon Tip]

I still have not seen a lot of evidence that this El Niño is strongly coupled to the hemisphere to be honest. 
… there are aspects that appear to be so but enough that don’t that I almost wonder if the former are just coincidences

[Chinook]

other ENSO correlations, precipitation vs MEI index or SOI index monthly (winter Nov-March)

[raindancewx]

On 12/24/2023 at 9:31 AM, raindancewx said:

I'll just leave this here.

Boston, <=1.0" Snow by Dec 31, El Nino

Mean: 28.8" (Oct-May Snow)

NYC (Central Park), <=1.0" Snow by Dec 31, El Nino

Mean: 18.4" (Oct-May Snow)

Philly, <=1.0" Snow by Dec 31, El Nino

Mean: 16.6" (Oct-May Snow)

No snow on the GFS or Euro for the Northeast cities through 12/31.

Here is a look at total snow for Boston, NYC, Philly in El Nino if we make it to Jan 5, 2024 without an inch. Once you get to January without an inch of snow in NYC/Philly, odds of a rebound start to deteriorate very quickly. Boston has a bit more time, but the general rule applies. Years with <=1" snow through Dec are essentially running 70%+ below average through a large portion of the cold season by time (Dec is a low snow month, but still 1/4 of the main Dec-Mar window in the NE coastal cities). It's not super common to rebound from a -70% pattern for snow to a long duration period of above average snow that can offset it. El Nino is a better snow signal further south, so there is more volatility in the rebound towards averages for DC/Philly than NYC/Boston in the rebounds. Anyway, still no snow on the models for the cities through Jan 5. I did have 1972, 1991, 1997 as analogs, so this all makes sense to me.

Boston, <=1.0", El Nino, Oct-Jan 5

1957-58 - 44.7

2006-07 - 17.1

2015-16 - 32.6

2018-19 - 27.4

Blend: 30.5"

NYC, <=1.0", El Nino, Oct-Jan 5

1965-66 - 21.4

1972-73 - 2.8

1991-92 - 12.6

1994-95 - 11.8

1997-98 - 5.5

2006-07 - 12.4

2015-16 - 32.8

Blend: 14.2"

Philly, <=1.0", El Nino, Oct-Jan 5

1958-59 - 5.1

1965-66 - 27.4

1972-73 - 0.0

1991-92 - 4.7

1994-95 - 9.8

1997-98 - 0.8

2004-05 - 30.4

2006-07 - 13.4

2014-15 - 27.0

2015-16 - 27.5

2019-20 - 0.3

Blend: 13.3"

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I still have not seen a lot of evidence that this El Niño is strongly coupled to the hemisphere to be honest. 
… there are aspects that appear to be so but enough that don’t that I almost wonder if the former are just coincidences

So like...are we in a climate where Ninas couple really well but niños have trouble? Is that where we are now? Smh (The 2018-19 barely coupled at all)

[raindancewx]

I think the main issue with this event is that the most typical El Nino conditions happen in rapid periods of subsurface warming. We had that...in March. Remember when California got nuked with snow and people died? Haven't had any rapid warming in the subsurface since. The warmth itself doesn't really do anything. We're the most sensitive part of the US to El Nino here, and we've always responded better to the "warming" of the ocean than the "warmth" of the ocean if that makes any sense. The subsurface hasn't really warmed much at all since Spring.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I think the main issue with this event is that the most typical El Nino conditions happen in rapid periods of subsurface warming. We had that...in March. Remember when California got nuked with snow and people died? Haven't had any rapid warming in the subsurface since. The warmth itself doesn't really do anything. We're the most sensitive part of the US to El Nino here, and we've always responded better to the "warming" of the ocean than the "warmth" of the ocean if that makes any sense. The subsurface hasn't really warmed much at all since Spring.

Kind of akin to an Archambault signal in that it's not the mode that triggers storminess, but rather the modality. 

Interesting. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Again, it doesn't make very much sense to look at lean snowfall starts that featured very little blocking...if you want to point to 2015 and 1957, okay...I can see Boston paralleling those years in terms of snowfall, which would yield a mean of a tick below average for the season. But the others in that data set had a very strong PV.

[raindancewx]

Boston should literally be at a foot of snow or so through 1/5. Instead you have less than an inch, with none in the forecast. To get to average, you'd need a +30% period of above average snow, which is a huge reversal from a 90%+ deficit, and that +30% reversal would need to last for 3 months from several small storms in an extended cold period. Otherwise it needs to come from a couple big storms.

The issue with the latter is that you can see from the NYC/Philly totals that the bigger storms tend to not come when those cities are heading into week two of January without any snow.

I'm also not super sold on the strat warming thing. A lot of those years come when the entirety of the coldest Northern Hemisphere climates are super warm in early winter. You don't really have that - it's been very cold in Russia and China this month. The Arctic Oscillation is already negative, and the NAO will be too by the end of the year, and you guys still don't look particularly cold in the short term.

[stadiumwave]

I know there seemed to be some concern models have been a little temperate with SPV forecast yesterday & today...but 0z GFS shows an SPV in serious trouble:

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

For 25 years Ive watched almost every weather event blamed on climate change. Anytime there is anomalous warmth, no snow on Christmas, a low snow month, or especially a top 20 warm month, I can 100% guarantee that any story referencing it will discuss climate change. However in those 25 years we have also had brutal winters, record snow years, record cold snaps and impressive winter storms. Since these are newsworthy items, they definitely got coverage at the time, but they almost always come with a preface "just because record lows were smashed does not mean climate change is not happening" or something like that. The entire thing has become embarrassing and it's exactly why so many dont take it seriously. Such irony that those most passionate about climate change are only hurting themselves when they fall hook, line, and sinker for any and every clickbait story. 

The climate has changed at least a few orders of magnitude here over the last 3 decades, pointing out one random year in the 30s doesn't mean anything when every year it's getting progressively worse, the growing season is longer, the rainfall totals are higher and my allergies are worse.  It's as bad as saying the earth is flat, dude.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s become embarrassing at this point…some of the responses when you point out a hyperbolic article. 

It's embarrassingly obvious at this point with how much things have changed over the last few decades; it isn't just about this year, it's about every year now.  My allergies have gotten much worse since the growing season got months longer and our rainfall totals have increased by at least 50%.  So using some random year in the 1930s as a counterpoint doesn't really mean anything.

It's having major societal and health impacts.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The empirical data speaks for itself. I don’t think anyone in this thread believes CC isn’t happening. But on a science-based forum, you’d expect a bit more rigor on the subject. 
 

Anecdotes are fun for clickbait but they aren’t climate science. 
 

If people want some more fun warm Minneapolis anecdotes, I suggest they Google “winter of 1877-78 Minneapolis”

again random isolated seasons don't mean anything when you look at the long term, and what we are seeing is a massive change over the long term.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Amen! Agree 100%. I mean literally LAST Christmas was below zero in Minneapolis and the extend of white Christmas in the US was greater than normal. 2022 was Detroits 5th coldest Christmas with a high of 16 (& 4" snow on the ground) and 2023 was 5th warmest with a high of 54. Yet an unusually warm snowless period centering on such a big day as Christmas is absolute gold for those into the dramatic anecdotes. 

 

1877-78 was a strong nino I heard. The region had hideously warm Decembers in 1877, 1881, & 1889.

You're going to have much slower changes than what we are having, and that's what the climate models have calculated.  Living closer to the ocean determines how massive the changes are that will impact you, both in terms of temperature and rainfall.

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Amen! Agree 100%. I mean literally LAST Christmas was below zero in Minneapolis and the extend of white Christmas in the US was greater than normal. 2022 was Detroits 5th coldest Christmas with a high of 16 (& 4" snow on the ground) and 2023 was 5th warmest with a high of 54. Yet an unusually warm snowless period centering on such a big day as Christmas is absolute gold for those into the dramatic anecdotes. 

 

1877-78 was a strong nino I heard. The region had hideously warm Decembers in 1877, 1881, & 1889.

and again the current trend has nothing to do with enso, it's happening regardless of the state of enso.

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

For 25 years Ive watched almost every weather event blamed on climate change. Anytime there is anomalous warmth, no snow on Christmas, a low snow month, or especially a top 20 warm month, I can 100% guarantee that any story referencing it will discuss climate change. However in those 25 years we have also had brutal winters, record snow years, record cold snaps and impressive winter storms. Since these are newsworthy items, they definitely got coverage at the time, but they almost always come with a preface "just because record lows were smashed does not mean climate change is not happening" or something like that. The entire thing has become embarrassing and it's exactly why so many dont take it seriously. Such irony that those most passionate about climate change are only hurting themselves when they fall hook, line, and sinker for any and every clickbait story. 

thats YOUR experience, meanwhile other parts of the country are having much more rapid changes than what you are having.  Your area is less sensitive to the effects of climate change than my area is and what other parts of the country have.

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Did I ever say climate change was not taking place?   It always kills me that whenever a joke of a story is mocked it means the person mocking it doesn't believe in climate change. Hell a troll can say something like "the climate will warm 30° in 2 decades" and people calling bs will be told they dont believe in climate change. The whole point is the inability to separate weather events from climate in the mainstream is ridiculous. 

there is a cause and effect relationship which all mainstream scientific institutions acknowledge and recognize.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Boston should literally be at a foot of snow or so through 1/5. Instead you have less than an inch, with none in the forecast. To get to average, you'd need a +30% period of above average snow, which is a huge reversal from a 90%+ deficit, and that +30% reversal would need to last for 3 months from several small storms in an extended cold period. Otherwise it needs to come from a couple big storms.

The issue with the latter is that you can see from the NYC/Philly totals that the bigger storms tend to not come when those cities are heading into week two of January without any snow.

I'm also not super sold on the strat warming thing. A lot of those years come when the entirety of the coldest Northern Hemisphere climates are super warm in early winter. You don't really have that - it's been very cold in Russia and China this month. The Arctic Oscillation is already negative, and the NAO will be too by the end of the year, and you guys still don't look particularly cold in the short term.

Of course not, since the entire continent has been devoid of cold due to the raging Pacific jet all month...it takes time cool off Canada again. You don't need to be very cold in January and February to get snow. As far as the SSW, I agree that is debatable.....but even if it technically doesn't happen, the PV should remain weak in the mean as the Pacific gets more favorable later in January and into February.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's embarrassingly obvious at this point with how much things have changed over the last few decades; it isn't just about this year, it's about every year now.  My allergies have gotten much worse since the growing season got months longer and our rainfall totals have increased by at least 50%.  So using some random year in the 1930s as a counterpoint doesn't really mean anything.

It's having major societal and health impacts.

Correct

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

thats YOUR experience, meanwhile other parts of the country are having much more rapid changes than what you are having.  Your area is less sensitive to the effects of climate change than my area is and what other parts of the country have.

 

Bordering the relatively "warm" Atlantic Ocean is certainly having an impact..

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Bordering the relatively "warm" Atlantic Ocean is certainly having an impact..

I've had enough of all these rainy years we've been having one after the other.

Rainy summers and rainy winters.

I dont even care about snow at this point, just get us back to our normal 40" rainfall years, not 55-60 inches.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Correct

Global warming is absolutely happening. There isn't any debate.

Looks like Judah Cohen is still expecting a SSW and subsequent PV split, though he admits its far from a certainty.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

And again, this is not the end all.....you need more to go right to save winter in the east, but it helps.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

and again the current trend has nothing to do with enso, it's happening regardless of the state of enso.

 

Just compare each decade with previous decades and you'll get your answer. 

Warming has been steady if not accelerating and though cold/snowy periods still occur their frequency has diminished greatly. 

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I've had enough of all these rainy years we've been having one after the other.

Rainy summers and rainy winters.

I dont even care about snow at this point, just get us back to our normal 40" rainfall years, not 55-60 inches.

As things warm the frequency of wetter years will also go up. And though dry periods will occur, our region as a whole will see average rainfall totals go up.