El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Correct! Which we've been saying since early DEC. 

I'm anxious to see what the EPS 101 member ensemble says. It just seems bizarre that almost 80% of members would have a u-wind reversal to 13% 36 hrs later. 

It could be a temporary waning of the signal...like we often see with respect to storms in the medium range. I still think we see one. If it looks bleak by this weekend, then maybe time to reevaluate, but this is the type of season that should feature a SSW. Calling BS on the guidance for now.

[Great Snow 1717]

13 hours ago, raindancewx said:

You all are welcome to come visit our mountains - the skiing has been nice. The secret to the high elevations out here is that it's almost always 0-30F or so at the base level of the resorts, ~8,000 feet, from mid-Nov to mid-Mar.

That is high for NE MA....we've had a patchy coating so far..lasted for about 3 hours...lol

[stadiumwave]

Simon just tweeted some differences between the 51 member medium range & 101 member extended range:

 

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

That is high for NE MA....we've had a patchy coating so far..lasted for about 3 hours...lol

The weather is awful, we have fungus, mold, moss (my garage roof and my neighbor's roof and the house after that are turning green!), etc, growing everywhere and it's destroying my nose lol.  Anything but rain, I dont care what the temperatures suck all the humidity and moisture into space I don't want it here.

 

No it really cant get any worse, we need weather modification  asap, I would be fine with a device that sucked moisture into space and prevented systems from getting stuck in place.

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The weather is awful, we have fungus, mold, moss (my garage roof and my neighbor's roof and the house after that are turning green!), etc, growing everywhere and it's destroying my nose lol.  Anything but rain, I dont care what the temperatures suck all the humidity and moisture into space I don't want it here.

 

No it really cant get any worse, we need weather modification  asap, I would be fine with a device that sucked moisture into space and prevented systems from getting stuck in place.

A Record-Breaking Warm, Snowless Winter Confounds Midwesterners – DNyuz

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

A Record-Breaking Warm, Snowless Winter Confounds Midwesterners – DNyuz

it's not the kind of warm I like-- warm and dry is far preferable to this, this is mostly wet and humid.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

...the start to winter of 23-24 reminds me of chaim bloom's 4 seasons with the north rays...

fungus, mold and moss? sounds about right lol

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

fungus, mold and moss? sounds about right lol

..all things found in a dumpster!

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

...the start to winter of 23-24 reminds me of chaim bloom's 4 seasons with the north rays...

And Breslow's first.

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And Breslow's first.

C'mon man they were all in on Othani and Yamamoto...

[GaWx]

 Here are the 0Z 12/27 model means for the 60N 10 mb wind low point for the GEFS, GEPS, FNMOC ens, and the GFS along with the respective comparisons to the 4 prior days’ 0Z:

1. GEFS: 12/27 +11 vs 12/26’s +8, 12/25’s +6, 12/24’s +18, and 12/23’s +17

2. GEPS: 12/27 -4 vs 12/26’s -9, 12/25’s -16,  12/24’s -2, and 12/23’s -5

3. FNMOC ens: 12/27 0 vs 12/26’s -3, 12/25’s -2, 12/24’s -2, and 12/23’s +7

4. GFS: 12/27 +8 vs 12/26’s -1, 12/25’s 0, 12/24’s 0, and 12/23’s +32

 All four dipped to lows 12/25-6 followed by a rise today. Despite today’s rises, the runs are still significantly lower than the 12/23 runs except for the GEPS being ~same. GEFS has been the highest overall while GEPS has been the lowest. Keep in mind that we’re still ~9-10 days out from a potential crossing of the 0 line, still a fair ways out to allow the details to be pinned down yet. If the low were to turn out, say, +2 vs -2, I don’t think it would make much difference as far as potential effects on the troposphere in the US, whether significant or not. Now comparing something like, say, +5 vs -5 would likely be a different story obviously. Being that lows were hit just 1-2 days ago and it is still ~9-10 days out, another reverse downward could easily happen as per @40/70 Benchmark 's post from two hours ago:

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

A Record-Breaking Warm, Snowless Winter Confounds Midwesterners – DNyuz

Such a reputable news source! Im glad the mayor of minneapolis is sounding the alarm bells after a snowless Christmas. The world must be ending. I hope he was not too alarmed last winter when minneapolis saw its third snowiest winter on record. And since we have 4 more months of snow to go in the midwest, hopefully that lady's sensible purchase of a $900 winter coat is put to use.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Such a reputable news source! Im glad the mayor of minneapolis is sounding the alarm bells after a snowless Christmas. The world must be ending. I hope he was not too alarmed last winter when minneapolis saw its third snowiest winter on record. And since we have 4 more months of snow to go in the midwest, hopefully that lady's sensible purchase of a $900 winter coat is put to use.

point out where the article is incorrect...

 

[michsnowfreak]

8 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

point out where the article is incorrect...

 

Did I say it was incorrect? This article was just a climate change piece based on a warm December weather pattern. Other than listing the Christmas temperatures there really wasn't data in it. I just thought it amusing that after the 3rd snowiest winter on record...and 7 years since Minneapolis has even had a below avg snow season...that alarm bells are ringing because of a snowless Christmas and warm December in minneapolis lol. It would be especially funny if they end up with another above avg snow season in the end. 

That San Diego lady though. Lmao. Who spends $900 on a winter coat? It's too bad that she hasn't worn it. The 8° that minneapolis had in November must have reminded her of San Diego winters of yore. But props to her for running 5 miles in a tshirt on Christmas day when it rained all day in minneapolis. Hope her shirt wasn't white!

[so_whats_happening]

We seem to be having some buoy issues again on TAO so it gives a funky look to everything for the last 3 days. Minor DWKW with this last bout of weak wind burst. The extended wind forecast shows a very Nina like look over the Pacific.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Did I say it was incorrect? This article was just a climate change piece based on a warm December weather pattern. Other than listing the Christmas temperatures there really wasn't data in it. I just thought it amusing that after the 3rd snowiest winter on record...and 7 years since Minneapolis has even had a below avg snow season...that alarm bells are ringing because of a snowless Christmas and warm December in minneapolis lol. It would be especially funny if they end up with another above avg snow season in the end. 

That San Diego lady though. Lmao. Who spends $900 on a winter coat? It's too bad that she hasn't worn it. The 8° that minneapolis had in November must have reminded her of San Diego winters of yore. But props to her for running 5 miles in a tshirt on Christmas day when it rained all day in minneapolis. Hope her shirt wasn't white!

......face it climate change is taking place...

[snowman19]

We seem to be having some buoy issues again on TAO so it gives a funky look to everything for the last 3 days. Minor DWKW with this last bout of weak wind burst. The extended wind forecast shows a very Nina like look over the Pacific.
 

It’s about to peak, probably within the next 2 weeks. That DWKW/WWB/-SOI is going to cause one final round of warming in 3.4 and 3 then it’s over. You can already see the subsurface cold starting to buildup in the WPAC

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It’s about to peak, probably within the next 2 weeks. That DWKW/WWB is going to cause one final round of warming in 3.4 and 3 then it’s over. You can already see the subsurface cold starting to buildup in the WPAC

I think that the subsurface already peaked in Nov.

[stadiumwave]

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Did I say it was incorrect? This article was just a climate change piece based on a warm December weather pattern. Other than listing the Christmas temperatures there really wasn't data in it. I just thought it amusing that after the 3rd snowiest winter on record...and 7 years since Minneapolis has even had a below avg snow season...that alarm bells are ringing because of a snowless Christmas and warm December in minneapolis lol. It would be especially funny if they end up with another above avg snow season in the end. 

That San Diego lady though. Lmao. Who spends $900 on a winter coat? It's too bad that she hasn't worn it. The 8° that minneapolis had in November must have reminded her of San Diego winters of yore. But props to her for running 5 miles in a tshirt on Christmas day when it rained all day in minneapolis. Hope her shirt wasn't white!

 

#opportunist 

Same with Arctic Sea Ice.

[so_whats_happening]

49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s about to peak, probably within the next 2 weeks. That DWKW/WWB/-SOI is going to cause one final round of warming in 3.4 and 3 then it’s over. You can already see the subsurface cold starting to buildup in the WPAC

Yea i dont see how this causes anymore warming to occur. Keeping it around the same temp sure but any strengthening doesnt seem likely at this point. This month looks to end fairly close to how november was. Especially if that thermocline breaks in 1+2. We may see a rather quick cooling in the eastern portions and slow decline in western 3.4 and 4.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

......face it climate change is taking place...

Did I ever say climate change was not taking place?   It always kills me that whenever a joke of a story is mocked it means the person mocking it doesn't believe in climate change. Hell a troll can say something like "the climate will warm 30° in 2 decades" and people calling bs will be told they dont believe in climate change. The whole point is the inability to separate weather events from climate in the mainstream is ridiculous. 

[snowman19]

43 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea i dont see how this causes anymore warming to occur. Keeping it around the same temp sure but any strengthening doesnt seem likely at this point. This month looks to end fairly close to how november was. Especially if that thermocline breaks in 1+2. We may see a rather quick cooling in the eastern portions and slow decline in western 3.4 and 4.

I don’t think it’s substantial warming, but probably enough to get above +2.1C on the weeklies within the next 2 weeks, then a slow decline

[roardog]

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Did I ever say climate change was not taking place?   It always kills me that whenever a joke of a story is mocked it means the person mocking it doesn't believe in climate change. Hell a troll can say something like "the climate will warm 30° in 2 decades" and people calling bs will be told they dont believe in climate change. The whole point is the inability to separate weather events from climate in the mainstream is ridiculous. 

I swear critical thinking goes out the window when climate changed is involved. It just becomes emotionally or politically driven.

[roardog]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t think it’s substantial warming, but probably enough to get above +2.1C on the weeklies within the next 2 weeklies, then a slow decline

I'm not sure it's going to quite make the super tri monthly but it won't be too far off. Good job staying with your prediction even when things weren't looking great. Super Nina and extreme -PDO next year? 

[Great Snow 1717]

15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Did I ever say climate change was not taking place?   It always kills me that whenever a joke of a story is mocked it means the person mocking it doesn't believe in climate change. Hell a troll can say something like "the climate will warm 30° in 2 decades" and people calling bs will be told they dont believe in climate change. The whole point is the inability to separate weather events from climate in the mainstream is ridiculous. 

a joke of a story??...

[stadiumwave]

27 minutes ago, roardog said:

I'm not sure it's going to quite make the super tri monthly but it won't be too far off. Good job staying with your prediction even when things weren't looking great. Super Nina and extreme -PDO next year? 

 

It'll be interesting to see for sure. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

......face it climate change is taking place...

the budding on my trees pretty much proves it.

the daffodils also seem to want to come out lol

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the budding on my trees pretty much proves it.

the daffodils also seem to want to come out lol

....there are signs everywhere..

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Per Allan’s same source, the % on the EPS fell a little more from the 25% (13) he showed per yesterday’s 12Z to only 20% (10) on today’s 0Z. We’ll be able to compare this with the Euro Weeklies output this afternoon to make sure they agree:

 

Based on the tweet from Allan saying only 20% major SSWs on today’s 0Z EPS, here’s what some of us have been waiting for to see if it agreed: it seems to be in agreement in being much less impressive in early Jan! The mean dips down only to +5 on Jan 6th vs yesterday’s -3:

 

 

Compare that to the very impressive run from yesterday at 0Z, what then was about the most impressive yet with a dip of the mean to -3 on Jan 6th:

 

So, that means that today’s 0Z EPS, GEFS, GEPS, FNMOC ens, and GFS are all less impressive than 24 hours ago. Will we now get a @mitchnickstyle reversal tomorrow? Stay tuned!

[michsnowfreak]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the budding on my trees pretty much proves it.

the daffodils also seem to want to come out lol

Wednesday’s [January 13] temperature of 59 degrees [in Hartford] started the crocus shoots, produced dandelions and pansies and encouraged porpoises and sea gulls to invade the Connecticut River in this vicinity. Also, a honey bee was seen…

Manchester, NH, reported that maple trees confused by the springlike weather today [January 14] began to give sap to all who would tap them.

Source: The Hartford Courant, January 15, 1932

Several violas in full bloom were picked by Mrs. Sherman D. Wrisley in her garden on Pratt Street, Glastonbury. Strawberry plants blossomed on Tolland Street, East Hartford.

Source: The Hartford Courant, January 16, 1932

Spring’s miscue in the East may have had results on fruit trees, flowering shrubs, bulbs and all kinds of flowers, according to reports that drifted in yesterday [January 15]. In Morris Littlemann’s penthouse garden at Broadway and Thirty-ninth Street, tulips, daffodils and hyacinths popped through the earth, roses broke out in a rash of buds and lilac and rhododendron bushes showed Springlike activity…

Magnolias opened in Heckscher Community Park in Huntington, LI, and grass and weeds had to be cut. Robins flashed over pansy beds in Toronto, and at Brantford in Ontario “an audacious grasshopper leaped with joy,” according to a Canadian Press report. Trusting plants and insects all over the East were betrayed by Spring’s dizzy mid-winter fling…

Ice saws were lying idle in Sussex County, NJ, because there is no ice to cut. Farmers in the district were plucking violets and casting rueful glances on misguided shrubs and fruit trees that had answered the siren call of a Spring gone mad.

Source: The New York Times, January 16, 1932.