El Nino 2023-2024

[stadiumwave]

8 hours ago, griteater said:

12z EPS Mean from Allan Huffman

 

[snowman19]

New ENSO update:

Region 3.4: +2.0C
Region 3: +2.1C
Region 1+2: +1.6C
Region 4: +1.4C

[stadiumwave]

If a split occurs, starting on JAN 7 per 12z GFS & warmong across artcitic continuing through end of run....then a great chance of a good period of winter in a lot of CONUS (esp eastern 2/3) is a good probability in the future. Can't guarantee the correct storm track for anyone, but the cold at some point would be a given. 

Sorry for the giant run-on sentence, lol. My wife, who is an English teacher, would scold me, ha! 

 

EDIT: Let me add that I do NOT think models have a good handle yet on whether the SSW results in split, & if so what kind of split, & how long does warming last. Models may handle that aspect poorly until 5-7 days before. 

[GaWx]

OHC continues to plunge:

[stadiumwave]

Surprised no one posted this tweet

 

[brooklynwx99]

@GaWx is going to like the new Weeklies. wow

[FPizz]

58 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Surprised no one posted this tweet

 

I think some are already burned out from a lack of anything resembling winter and their patience is already gone. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

Surprised no one posted this tweet

 

 

18 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I think some are already burned out from a lack of anything resembling winter and their patience is already gone. 

I assumed it was because this tweet is not to the liking of the usual Eric Webb fan club posts in this thread.

[griteater]

25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@GaWx is going to like the new Weeklies. wow

Hopefully just a blip, but the 12z EPS had less SSW members this run.

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

Hopefully just a blip, but the 12z EPS had less SSW members this run.

the 00z was the most aggressive yet, so that’s surprising 

[stadiumwave]

10 minutes ago, griteater said:

Hopefully just a blip, but the 12z EPS had less SSW members this run.

 

Can't say for sure because I don't have GEFS members, but just looking at the mean I'm guessing it had some members back off as well. Maybe you have access?

[stadiumwave]

40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@GaWx is going to like the new Weeklies. wow

 

Can you post? I only have access to Mon & Thurs updates. 

[griteater]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the 00z was the most aggressive yet, so that’s surprising 

Yeah that was surprising.  It looks like today's 12z GFS bottomed out at +5 on Jan 8

http://www.weatheriscool.com/prod/ztemp_multilevels.html

[griteater]

4 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Can you post? I only have access to Mon & Thurs updates. 

I think brooklyn was referring to the zonal wind chart that he ended up posting, which is based off today's Euro Weeklies (which is initialized from Dec 26 00z data)

[griteater]

9 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Can't say for sure because I don't have GEFS members, but just looking at the mean I'm guessing it had some members back off as well. Maybe you have access?

I think we can only get GEFS zonal wind data from the 00z runs

[stadiumwave]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

Hopefully just a blip, but the 12z EPS had less SSW members this run.

 

Simon seems unbothered by 12z 

 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, griteater said:

Hopefully just a blip, but the 12z EPS had less SSW members this run.

I wonder where he gets these graphs from. Something doesn’t seem right.

[raindancewx]

You all are welcome to come visit our mountains - the skiing has been nice. The secret to the high elevations out here is that it's almost always 0-30F or so at the base level of the resorts, ~8,000 feet, from mid-Nov to mid-Mar.

[stadiumwave]

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Simon seems unbothered by 12z 

 

 

Personally, I know he's doubling down but I do believe you've got to take it all in. I have a hunch MJO forecasts are impacting stratosphere forecasts. 

[griteater]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

I wonder where he gets these graphs from. Something doesn’t seem right.

My guess is that they are from StormVista.  He went on to say that he added the "60-90N" and "zonal wind anomaly" text in the title but stated that it should be "60N" and "zonal wind" instead.  We'll have to see what it shows in the morning, but it looks like the regular Euro Ens (with 51 members) at 12z backed off some this run with the number of members with a SSW.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, griteater said:

My guess is that they are from StormVista.  He went on to say that he added the "60-90N" and "zonal wind anomaly" text in the title but stated that it should be "60N" and "zonal wind" instead.  We'll have to see what it shows in the morning, but it looks like the regular Euro Ens (with 51 members) at 12z backed off some this run with the number of members with a SSW.

There is a large abrupt and intense thermal presentation coming from the GFS cluster. In fact, by day 9 there’s already positive anomalies near the ceiling of the chart from the 2 HPA level all the way down in altitude clear to the 70.

Too early to tell if that is going to be a downward propagation. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Surprised no one posted this tweet

 

You must have JUST beaten @snowman19to it.

[griteater]

41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There is a large abrupt and intense thermal presentation coming from the GFS cluster. In fact, by day 9 there’s already positive anomalies near the ceiling of the chart from the 2 HPA level all the way down in altitude clear to the 70.

Too early to tell if that is going to be a downward propagation. 

A visual of that from last night's 00z GFS

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, griteater said:

I think we can only get GEFS zonal wind data from the 00z runs

Based on comparing the GEFS runs of 0Z 12/25 and 0Z 12/26, the main reason for the small rise in the mean wind from the ensemble mean was not the % of members with a major SSW but rather the average intensity of the majors was a little softer on the 12/26 run. But in terms of frequency, the 12/26 run is still one of the most bullish for the lagging GEFS for Jan 5-11 with 10 (32%) majors vs 11 (35%) on the 12/25 run.

[stadiumwave]

 

[GaWx]

16 hours ago, griteater said:

Hopefully just a blip, but the 12z EPS had less SSW members this run.

 Per Allan’s same source, the % on the EPS fell a little more from the 25% (13) he showed per yesterday’s 12Z to only 20% (10) on today’s 0Z. We’ll be able to compare this with the Euro Weeklies output this afternoon to make sure they agree:

 

[stadiumwave]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Per Alan’s same source, the % on the EPS fell a little more from the 25% (13) he showed per yesterday’s 12Z to only 20% (10) on today’s 0Z. We’ll be able to compare this with the Euro Weeklies output this afternoon to make sure they agree:

 

 

GEFS, GEPS seem to be backing off as well. They all have an event just not as strong as previously. 

Simon Lee says the SPV has been knocked around since NOV & that even if this is not a "knock out punch" it will probably still get the job done as farcas sensible weather, or at least that's how I took it. 

BTW, it's a good thread. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

GEFS, GEPS seem to be backing off as well. They all have an event just not as strong as previously. 

Simon Lee says the SPV has been knocked around since NOV & that even if this is not a "knock out punch" it will probably still get the job done as farcas sensible weather, or at least that's how I took it. 

BTW, it's a good thread. 

Important thing is that the PV is weak....I'm just hoping for a SSW for verification purposes. Its by no means necessarily winter cancel if the PV isn't absolutely decimated.

[CoastalWx]

50mb is stretched and knocked around but doesn’t look like a SSWE to me. 

[stadiumwave]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Important thing is that the PV is weak....I'm just hoping for a SSW for verification purposes. Its by no means necessarily winter cancel if the PV isn't absolutely decimated.

 

Correct! Which we've been saying since early DEC. 

I'm anxious to see what the EPS 101 member ensemble says. It just seems bizarre that almost 80% of members would have a u-wind reversal to 13% 36 hrs later.