El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Who is claiming to be a genius???...I simply pointed out what has been taking place in the northern hemisphere. 

Just being a jerk...obviously some sarcasm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pattern recognition is one thing, but I'm not sure Canada was exceedingly warm last fall when most outlooks were issued. It's also only problematic if one was expecting a cold winter, which no one was to my knowledge. It doesn't preclude being just cold enough to snow in the second half.

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pattern recognition is one thing, but I'm not sure Canada was exceedingly warm last fall when most outlooks were issued. It's also only problematic if one was expecting a cold winter, which no one was to my knowledge. It doesn't preclude being just cold enough to snow in the second half.

Numerous records for warmth/heat have been broken all across Canada the last several years....

[stadiumwave]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The SOI nosedived today. -30. Huge drops like this during Ninos typically precede rather dramatic warming spikes

@bluewave 

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

 

Just simply means a big winter storm is likely as well in 3 weeks. Smart money on JAN 9-13 timeframe....supported by BSR as well. 

[jbenedet]

48 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I agree, for some individuals it is an attempt to feed their ego. The same thing happens with the baseball stat geeks who think the answer(s) is in the numbers rather than with proper in person evaluation of players. .....and yes often times the simplest explanations are the best..  as the old saying goes, paralysis by analysis certainly applies to some people here who over analyze everything.....information overload is never a good thing.

Occam’s Razor.

A “simple” hypothesis is one that doesn’t make unnecessary assumptions, not one that is conceptually simple.

 

[roardog]

I think some people fail to realize how quickly Canada can cool down this time of year. North America being flooded with pacific air and that big ridge sitting in southern Canada means very mild temperatures in a lot of the country. 
 

 Look what happens later next week though when the ridge moves into NW Canada. We already have colder air moving south into eastern Canada at that time which then moves south into the eastern half of the US. It might not be anything unusual but it will bring well below freezing 850 temps and below freezing high temperatures to much of the Great Lakes and New England. Some people here act like it won’t snow all winter because it’s ridiculously mild in Edmonton right now. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, roardog said:

I think some people fail to realize how quickly Canada can cool down this time of year. North America being flooded with pacific air and that big ridge sitting in southern Canada means very mild temperatures in a lot of the country. 
 

 Look what happens later next week though when the ridge moves into NW Canada. We already have colder air moving south into eastern Canada at that time which then moves south into the eastern half of the US. It might not be anything unusual but it will bring well below freezing 850 temps and below freezing high temperatures to much of the Great Lakes and New England. Some people here act like it won’t snow all winter because it’s ridiculously mild in Edmonton right now. 

Good post. I’m not overly concerned with temps up there even if they are record levels. Just a small change in the ridge orientation will bring cold (yes, even modified cp airmass is cold enough for snow in the MA). Snowcover will improve drastically across the northern half of the CONUS with the xmas cutter, too. Then we flip colder on around the 29th, then game on. 

[roardog]

A lot of the El Niño winters that you guys on the east coast love had this pattern in December. Maybe it’s a little warmer than December 1965 for instance since the planet is warmer overall but the general idea with the warmest anomalies being across the north(especially northern plains) is pretty classic Nino December. Your ‘02/‘09 cold Nino Decembers are pretty rare especially for a Nino that’s technically almost super.

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, roardog said:

I think some people fail to realize how quickly Canada can cool down this time of year. North America being flooded with pacific air and that big ridge sitting in southern Canada means very mild temperatures in a lot of the country. 
 

 Look what happens later next week though when the ridge moves into NW Canada. We already have colder air moving south into eastern Canada at that time which then moves south into the eastern half of the US. It might not be anything unusual but it will bring well below freezing 850 temps and below freezing high temperatures to much of the Great Lakes and New England. Some people here act like it won’t snow all winter because it’s ridiculously mild in Edmonton right now. 

It doesn't need to be February 2015 to snow....people are getting carried away quoting fortune cookies and all. I still think I'm on the right track.

[BlizzardWx]

First time I've seen the a PV lobe modeled to sit over NA so far. This extends down to 50 hPa as well. 

[jbenedet]

12 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

First time I've seen the a PV lobe modeled to sit over NA so far. This extends down to 50 hPa as well. 

If you’re looking for significant cold this is a West of Mississippi River story. Several pieces of guidance are pointing in this direction. At this point, I think the East-central US has some reason for excitement in January; I.e. big snow potential. Not seeing this elsewhere at the moment. This is a N to AN look for the east coast, AN favored in the northeast.

 

[jbenedet]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s 0Z GEPS mean at 384 looks very close to a major SSW. If not, I think the mean wind is only a little over 0. I’ll find out later:

Reposting, as GEPS in general alignment with the GEFS at same timeframe.

Take away this far out is some confidence building on severe cold in early to mid January out western half CONUS. UL Ridging in the east..

[GaWx]

Today’s 0Z CDN ens mean has gone from yesterday’s +2 to +1 for 1/6-7 to today’s -3 to -5 for 1/7-8 (lt blue line), solid signal for a major SSW within a few days of 1/6 or 14 days out:

 

 To compare, what did the GEPS mean show in advance of the 2/16/23 major? At 14 days out or the 2/2/23 run, it still had it way up at ~+15 on 2/16 (see below). It didn’t show it negative until 2/6/23, only 10 days out. So, the current GEPS signal out 14 days is much stronger vs where it was 14 days  before the 2/16/23 SSW:

 

[GaWx]

12Z GEPS still has strong signal/much stronger signal than 14 days prior to 2/16/23 for a major SSW ~1/6. But for same timeframe the 12Z GEFS still has a much weaker signal than GEPS. Model battle! I expect GEFS signal will strengthen in coming days. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

A lot of the El Niño winters that you guys on the east coast love had this pattern in December. Maybe it’s a little warmer than December 1965 for instance since the planet is warmer overall but the general idea with the warmest anomalies being across the north(especially northern plains) is pretty classic Nino December. Your ‘02/‘09 cold Nino Decembers are pretty rare especially for a Nino that’s technically almost super.

Yup. Interesting fact. Detroit has never had a white christmas in a strong Nino (1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, 1991, 2015, 2023). This is not new york city where white christmases are rare. Historically we have a near 50% chance of a white Christmas, there has been no long-term decrease in that percentage, exactly half of the 24 christmases this century have been white... yet not a single strong nino white one. December in strong ninos sucks.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Reposting, as GEPS in general alignment with the GEFS at same timeframe.

Take away this far out is some confidence building on severe cold in early to mid January out western half CONUS. UL Ridging in the east..

?

[raindancewx]

CFS basically has the same look for December carrying into January. I've been pleased with the pattern so far, it's nice and wet. The mountains here are getting a ton of snow. The resorts have 2-4 foot bases at the moment.

We've had back-back wetter than average months for the first time since Jan-Apr 2019. The CFS basically has no skill until a day-two days before the new month starts. 

It's actually remarkable how little El Nino changes with time. Some of the El Ninos in the 1940s were absolutely brutally cold in Russia like this year, and very warm in the US like this year has been to date. Close to a literal recreation of the conditions that helped kill so many Nazis. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It doesn't need to be February 2015 to snow....people are getting carried away quoting fortune cookies and all. I still think I'm on the right track.

This happens every winter…everyone looks for the KU cookbook pattern and when it doesn’t show up, there’s some incredibly awful analysis about snow chances…particularly in New England. I understand the margin for error is a lot lower down in the Mid-Atlantic. 

[JBG]

52 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

CFS basically has the same look for December carrying into January. I've been pleased with the pattern so far, it's nice and wet. The mountains here are getting a ton of snow. The resorts have 2-4 foot bases at the moment.

We've had back-back wetter than average months for the first time since Jan-Apr 2019. The CFS basically has no skill until a day-two days before the new month starts. 

It's actually remarkable how little El Nino changes with time. Some of the El Ninos in the 1940s were absolutely brutally cold in Russia like this year, and very warm in the US like this year has been to date. Close to a literal recreation of the conditions that helped kill so many Nazis. 

 

I don't know. In my neck of the woods, the New York area, 1972-3 could not have been more different than 2009-10, even though both were cold-phase El Niños. 1982-3 and 2015-6 at least had one huge KU, unlike 1972-3 or 1997-8.

[GaWx]

On 12/22/2023 at 3:23 PM, GaWx said:

New Euro Weekly 10 mb mean wind: though likely not quite as many there are still lots of members with a major SSW in early Jan, especially Jan 3-9. Also, for the full run, the # of extreme SSWs (sub -15) increased back up to ~15:

The potential major SSW is getting closer! Once again, the EPS has numerous major SSWs  1/3-9 with the highest concentration 1/4-7. So, the Euro and CDN are both are both saying very good chance for one 1/3-9 with the GEFS at ~ half as high a chance as the other two for then. I see ~17 sub -15:

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

CFS basically has the same look for December carrying into January. I've been pleased with the pattern so far, it's nice and wet. The mountains here are getting a ton of snow. The resorts have 2-4 foot bases at the moment.

We've had back-back wetter than average months for the first time since Jan-Apr 2019. The CFS basically has no skill until a day-two days before the new month starts. 

It's actually remarkable how little El Nino changes with time. Some of the El Ninos in the 1940s were absolutely brutally cold in Russia like this year, and very warm in the US like this year has been to date. Close to a literal recreation of the conditions that helped kill so many Nazis. 

The cfs literally changes wildly 4 times a day. 

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The potential major SSW is getting closer! Once again, the EPS has numerous major SSWs  1/3-9 with the highest concentration 1/4-7. So, the Euro and CDN are both are both saying very good chance for one 1/3-9 with the GEFS at ~ half as high a chance as the other two for then. I see ~17 sub -15:

good shot at getting the SPV on our side of the globe, too. don’t see this as a scenario where all the cold goes over to Asia

[GaWx]

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

good shot at getting the SPV on our side of the globe, too. don’t see this as a scenario where all the cold goes over to Asia

I found this but have no details about it. What do they mean by “following”? The 1-3 week period immediately following is sometimes mild in the E US. Is that period included. If so, the average cold anomaly would be colder than this once past 1-3 weeks. And is this just for majors? Are these C or F? But this suggests that the coldest over land in the entire hemisphere between 30 and 40N by far is over the E US vs the warm anomalies over much of Eurasia/W US. The coldest is over the MidAtlantic/SE/lower MW. That’s why I don’t think about where the coldest will end up. So, get the major and the cold should come, especially during El Niño:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, jbenedet said:

If you’re looking for significant cold this is a West of Mississippi River story. Several pieces of guidance are pointing in this direction. At this point, I think the East-central US has some reason for excitement in January; I.e. big snow potential. Not seeing this elsewhere at the moment. This is a N to AN look for the east coast, AN favored in the northeast.

 

I agree with this. I do not expect a cold month and won't be suprised if it ends up underwhelming in terms of eastern snowfall.... I think it will be serviceable in the mean.

[BlizzardWx]

4 hours ago, jbenedet said:

If you’re looking for significant cold this is a West of Mississippi River story. Several pieces of guidance are pointing in this direction. At this point, I think the East-central US has some reason for excitement in January; I.e. big snow potential. Not seeing this elsewhere at the moment. This is a N to AN look for the east coast, AN favored in the northeast.

 

What are you thinking favors that? Although I am slightly west of the Mississippi so maybe that's fine too

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

good shot at getting the SPV on our side of the globe, too. don’t see this as a scenario where all the cold goes over to Asia

That would be ideal down near HB.

[stadiumwave]

Click & read entire thread. 

[griteater]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

I found this but have no details about it. What do they mean by “following”? The 1-3 week period immediately following is sometimes mild in the E US. Is that period included. If so, the average cold anomaly would be colder than this once past 1-3 weeks. And is this just for majors? Are these C or F? But this suggests that the coldest over land in the entire hemisphere between 30 and 40N by far is over the E US vs the warm anomalies over much of Eurasia/W US. The coldest is over the MidAtlantic/SE/lower MW. That’s why I don’t think about where the coldest will end up. So, get the major and the cold should come, especially during El Niño:

 

 

This is 0 to 45 days after (on average of course). You can make your own composites with the selections at the bottom of this page: https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/

 

[raindancewx]

This event really isn't in the same echelon as the top El Ninos by the traditional SST measures. -PDO really sticks out v. 2015-16 too. That will matter again in JanuaryFebtuary, after being irrelevant in December.

[stadiumwave]

0z GFS