El Nino 2023-2024

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@GaWx Pointed this out, but ERSST is running warmer than OISST. IMO it is still very likely we get an official (unrounded) trimonthly super event for NDJ. My guess is +2.1C for the trimonthly average. Also, even on the extreme cold outlier CDAS, regions 3.4 and 3 are warming steadily right now. Would not be surprised to see OISST up over +2.1C today

Do you think this gets to the level of 2015-16 or 1982-83?

 

[Great Snow 1717]

On 12/21/2023 at 3:41 AM, LibertyBell said:

see my reasoning in my above post, this is not arctic air, it is merely the influence of cloud cover and rainfall.  It's why I don't like talk of  "average temperatures" without further context as to the source regions of where this air is actually coming from-- and it's not the arctic thats for sure lol

 

You understood perfectly why I wrote "good luck lol"...unlike some dude named Teapot or whatever his name is who announced to the world that he was adding me to his ignore list lol..... I can't even begin to tell you the impact  it has had on my life...

[Great Snow 1717]

19 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

 

Canada is NOT cold right now lol. Most major cities are experiencing record breaking warmth this December. Not even 2015 was this warm. And this is "our source region" for cold out east. Most places are near or above freezing. 

See forecasts below for this upcoming week. These cities, more than 90-95% of the time, experience a white Christmas or at the very least some decent cold which is no where to be found this year. If you scroll down you'll find the averages too and will note how incredibly warm it is. 

Calgary, AB: 

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-52_metric_e.html

Edmonton, AB:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html

Regina, SK:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html

Saskatoon, SK:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html

Winnipeg, MB

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html 

Thompson (north Manitoba) 

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-34_metric_e.html

Moosonee, ON (right by Hudson Bay)

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-113_metric_e.html 

One of the top posts in this thread!....Canada has been en fuego for months.

The source region(Canada) for cold/cool air in the US has warmed so it only stands to reason that the US has also become warmer. And the warming across Canada and the US has led to a change in weather patterns.

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/temperature-change.html

https://www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/canada-faces-green-christmas-as-el-nino-follows-warm-summer-head-climatologist-says-1.6696529

...towards the end of the article Phillips makes a great point about El Ninos  being different now because of worldwide warming..

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

One of the top posts in this thread!....Canada has been en fuego for months.

The source region(Canada) for cold/cool air in the US has warmed so it only stands to reason that the US has also become warmer. And the warming across Canada and the US has led to a change in weather patterns.

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/temperature-change.html

https://www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/canada-faces-green-christmas-as-el-nino-follows-warm-summer-head-climatologist-says-1.6696529

...towards the end of the article Phillips makes a great point about El Ninos  being different now because of worldwide warming..

It seems as though stronger el ninos are becoming more common but so are longer duration la ninas.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

It seems as though stronger el ninos are becoming more common but so are longer duration la ninas.

....and some people are in total denial...

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

 

Canada is NOT cold right now lol. Most major cities are experiencing record breaking warmth this December. Not even 2015 was this warm. And this is "our source region" for cold out east. Most places are near or above freezing. 

See forecasts below for this upcoming week. These cities, more than 90-95% of the time, experience a white Christmas or at the very least some decent cold which is no where to be found this year. If you scroll down you'll find the averages too and will note how incredibly warm it is. 

Calgary, AB: 

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-52_metric_e.html

Edmonton, AB:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html

Regina, SK:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html

Saskatoon, SK:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html

Winnipeg, MB

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html 

Thompson (north Manitoba) 

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-34_metric_e.html

Moosonee, ON (right by Hudson Bay)

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-113_metric_e.html 

Great post. We can also add Newfoundland and Labrador to that list.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Great post. We can also add Newfoundland and Labrador to that list.

 

..no one should be surprised by the well above normal warmth this past fall and the early part of winter..

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..no one should be surprised by the well above normal warmth this past fall and the early part of winter..

The record warm pattern in Canada got started last May. The record SSTs in the WPAC generated the forcing which lead to historic ridge. Similar pattern to this December. 
 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The record warm pattern in Canada got started last May. The record SSTs in the WPAC generated the forcing which lead to historic ridge. Similar pattern to this December. 
 

 

Correct....but some people overlooked/downplayed what was taking place in Canada while putting together their 23-24 winter forecast..

[GaWx]

1. Today’s WCS OISST dropped slightly to +2.01. It continues to not move much overall (no real trend). It remains to be seen whether or not the ERSST based NDJ ONI ends up +2.00+. Keep in mind that the Nov ERSST was slightly warmer (less than 0.10) than the Nov OISST:

 

2. OHC has been dropping sharply since late Nov per this. So, barring another sharp warmup soon, Nov will end up the peak month:

 

[wncsnow]

I don't know whether to be excited or if it's winter cancel. There seems to be 2 consensus of opinions. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

I don't know whether to be excited or if it's winter cancel. There seems to be 2 consensus of opinions. 

.....take a look at the pattern...........

[GaWx]

 Today’s 0Z GEPS mean at 384 looks very close to a major SSW. If not, I think the mean wind is only a little over 0. I’ll find out later:

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Is there any real way of knowing where in the Northern Hemisphere the cold following a SSW happens?  

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Is there any real way of knowing where in the Northern Hemisphere the cold following a SSW happens?  

In the E US, I found that the SE US and lower Mid Atlantic have been most affected on average. As I’ve posted before, I did an analysis of major SSWs that affected El Niño winters since 1957-8 (excluded the two in late Feb because that’s too late to impact met. winter) and found all of them to have had a 3-7 week long period of BN temp domination in those areas starting 1-3 weeks after the major SSW date. The NE is also usually affected though not always.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

32 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Is there any real way of knowing where in the Northern Hemisphere the cold following a SSW happens?  

Opposite of this

https://ibb.co/TB17wQr

It can downwell any way, usually within ^that range. It's a high pressure in the upper atmosphere and it usually correlates to -AO in about +15-40 days, depending when in the cold season it occurs. 

[GaWx]

New Euro Weekly 10 mb mean wind: though likely not quite as many there are still lots of members with a major SSW in early Jan, especially Jan 3-9. Also, for the full run, the # of extreme SSWs (sub -15) increased back up to ~15:

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Correct....but some people overlooked/downplayed what was taking place in Canada while putting together their 23-24 winter forecast..

I haven't seen anyone forecast a cold month of December. I think the high end of my range was +3F. It's very rough to forecast extreme anomalies at a seasonal level...this is why it's considered a huge signal when you see a 985mb low on a day 10 ensemble mean.

I also find it hard to credit anyone that doesn't put forth a published effort....sorry, bumping a quote about a warm pool from October or November doesn't do a hell of a lot for me. Put the time and effort in and I'll give credit where its due. Short of that anyone trying to claim credit for anything is akin to a lucky guess on a math test without any work shown. 

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s 0Z GEPS mean at 384 looks very close to a major SSW. If not, I think the mean wind is only a little over 0. I’ll find out later:

The answer just came out based on the following chart: 0Z 12/22/23 GEPS mean (light blue line) has a mean 60N 10 mb wind of +1 m/s on 1/6-7:

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, wncsnow said:

I don't know whether to be excited or if it's winter cancel. There seems to be 2 consensus of opinions. 

If you read enough in the thread, you will quickly learn who gives an objective analysis and who is constantly trying to hammer their wishcast/opinions/personal preference. 

[BlizzardWx]

36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

New Euro Weekly 10 mb mean wind: though likely not quite as many there are still lots of members with a major SSW in early Jan, especially Jan 3-9. Also, for the full run, the # of extreme SSWs (sub -15) increased back up to ~15:

We lost a lot of the strong +u members though for the period in question. Definite consolidation run towards the mean. 

[snowman19]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. Today’s WCS OISST dropped slightly to +2.01. It continues to not move much overall (no real trend). It remains to be seen whether or not the ERSST based NDJ ONI ends up +2.00+. Keep in mind that the Nov ERSST was slightly warmer (less than 0.10) than the Nov OISST:


 
2. OHC has been dropping sharply since late Nov per this. So, barring another sharp warmup soon, Nov will end up the peak month:

 

The SOI nosedived today. -30. Huge drops like this during Ninos typically precede rather dramatic warming spikes

@bluewave 

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[griteater]

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

What would this imply? (Forgive me...this layman is lost on the SSW discussion, lol)

[griteater]

57 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What would this imply? (Forgive me...this layman is lost on the SSW discussion, lol)

Winds typically blow as westerlies (west to east) in the stratosphere in the polar cap (60N to the North Pole).  An SSW is defined by a reversal of the winds from westerly to easterly at 60N, high in the stratosphere at 10mb. The 0 line on the charts is the flip from westerly (above 0) to easterly (below 0) winds.  Ultimately what we are looking for is for those easterlies that occur as part of the SSW to downwell from the high stratosphere to the lower stratosphere / top of the troposphere, and getting an SSW that properly downwells is one way to achieve it (though not the only way).  It is much easier to get effective high latitude blocking (-AO/-NAO) when the lower stratosphere westerlies are running weaker than normal.  When those westerlies are running stronger than normal in the lower stratosphere, the stratospheric polar vortex is wound up tight which is a hostile environment for the upper tropospheric flow in the polar cap to slow down and become favorable for blocking patterns.  Luckily this winter we already have a favorable setup where there is some ongoing downwelling of weaker than normal westerlies in the stratosphere; a downwelling SSW would accentuate this condition further

Recommended video and reading:

Short video on SSWs: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1MiUlTthSNA&feature=youtu.be

Blog post from Simon Lee that discusses the importance of the lower stratosphere with respect to tropospheric blocking: https://simonleewx.com/2023/11/23/the-importance-of-the-polar-vortex-at-100-hpa/

 

[Great Snow 1717]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't seen anyone forecast a cold month of December. I think the high end of my range was +3F. It's very rough to forecast extreme anomalies at a seasonal level...this is why it's considered a huge signal when you see a 985mb low on a day 10 ensemble mean.

I also find it hard to credit anyone that doesn't put forth a published effort....sorry, bumping a quote about a warm pool from October or November doesn't do a hell of a lot for me. Put the time and effort in and I'll give credit where its due. Short of that anyone trying to claim credit for anything is akin to a lucky guess on a math test without any work shown. 

Pattern recognition is NOT a lucky guess. It is recognizing a pattern(s) and understanding the impacts the pattern(s) may have or may not have.    The patterns the last several years have produced record warmth all over the northern hemisphere. Warmth can and has impacted snowfall. ..and that is not debatable. 

Many places in the northern hemisphere are experiencing their warmest year on record. It only stood to reason that if the warmth continued into late fall and winter that it would have an impact on snowfall....deductive reasoning is NOT a "lucky guess"...

So far this past fall and early winter there has been a continuation of the record warmth across the northern hemisphere. And that has led to well below normal snowfall.  At this point there needs to be a significant shift in the pattern to prevent the winter of 23-24 from being a complete dud.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Pattern recognition is NOT a lucky guess. It is recognizing a pattern(s) and understanding the impacts the pattern(s) may have or may not have.    The patterns the last several years have produced record warmth all over the northern hemisphere. Warmth can and has impacted snowfall. ..and that is not debatable. 

Many places in the northern hemisphere are experiencing their warmest year on record. It only stood to reason that if the warmth continued into late fall and winter that it would have an impact on snowfall....deductive reasoning is NOT a "lucky guess"...

So far this past fall and early winter there has been a continuation of the record warmth across the northern hemisphere. And that has led to well below normal snowfall.  At this point there needs to be a significant shift in the pattern to prevent the winter of 23-24 from being a complete dud.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

100%. The foundation of NWP is chaos theory. I don’t believe most in here understand this, or they think they do but in reality, they don’t at all. They’ve never seen it demonstrated, explicitly. 

This stuff pisses me off to no end because the physical equations are robust; it is rock solid theory. It’s the future telling that causes the significant error bars; especially 5 days + out. It’s the addiction of wanting to see the future which has people abusing the modeling tools available to the general public and entrenching in the masses minds that atmospheric science is more BS than macroeconomics.

Taken together, observations are far more powerful (skill-wise) than hypotheticals built on representations of the global atmosphere 2 weeks+ out which are then used to make regional forecasts. No Skill! In other words, more work analyzing does NOT translate to more accurate forecasting results. It just means more jargon and BS explanations that dupe the naive and ignorant, “this guy must know something.” It also means forecasting accuracy is likely lower because it is more clouded, staring at variables as if they are knowns, when in reality they are unknowns because at future time points they are very poorly resolved or not resolved at all.

When it comes to complexity, most often, the simplest explanations are the most accurate ones. 

[Great Snow 1717]

12 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

100%. The foundation of NWP is chaos theory. I don’t believe most in here understand this, or they think they do but in reality, they don’t at all. They’ve never seen it demonstrated, explicitly. 

This stuff pisses me off to no end because the physical equations are robust; it is solid science. It’s the future telling that causes the significant error bars; especially 5 days + out. It’s the addiction of wanting to see the future which has people abusing the modeling tools available to the general public and entrenching in the masses minds that atmospheric science is more BS than macroeconomics.

Taken together, observations are far more powerful (skill-wise) than hypotheticals built on representations of the global atmosphere 2 weeks+ out which are then used to make regional forecasts. No Skill! In other words, more work analyzing does NOT translate to more accurate forecasting results. It just means more jargon and BS explanations that dupe the naive and ignorant, “this guy must know something.” It also means forecasting accuracy is likely lower because it is more clouded, staring at variables as if they are knowns, when in reality they are unknowns because at future time points they are very poorly resolved; or not resolved at all.

When it comes to complexity, most often, the simplest explanations are the most accurate ones. 

I agree, for some individuals it is an attempt to feed their ego. The same thing happens with the baseball stat geeks who think the answer(s) is in the numbers rather than with proper in person evaluation of players. .....and yes often times the simplest explanations are the best..  as the old saying goes, paralysis by analysis certainly applies to some people here who over analyze everything.....information overload is never a good thing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Pattern recognition is NOT a lucky guess. It is recognizing a pattern(s) and understanding the impacts the pattern(s) may have or may not have.    The patterns the last several years have produced record warmth all over the northern hemisphere. Warmth can and has impacted snowfall. ..and that is not debatable. 

Many places in the northern hemisphere are experiencing their warmest year on record. It only stood to reason that if the warmth continued into late fall and winter that it would have an impact on snowfall....deductive reasoning is NOT a "lucky guess"...

So far this past fall and early winter there has been a continuation of the record warmth across the northern hemisphere. And that has led to well below normal snowfall.  At this point there needs to be a significant shift in the pattern to prevent the winter of 23-24 from being a complete dud.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

33 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

100%. The foundation of NWP is chaos theory. I don’t believe most in here understand this, or they think they do but in reality, they don’t at all. They’ve never seen it demonstrated, explicitly. 

This stuff pisses me off to no end because the physical equations are robust; it is rock solid theory. It’s the future telling that causes the significant error bars; especially 5 days + out. It’s the addiction of wanting to see the future which has people abusing the modeling tools available to the general public and entrenching in the masses minds that atmospheric science is more BS than macroeconomics.

Taken together, observations are far more powerful (skill-wise) than hypotheticals built on representations of the global atmosphere 2 weeks+ out which are then used to make regional forecasts. No Skill! In other words, more work analyzing does NOT translate to more accurate forecasting results. It just means more jargon and BS explanations that dupe the naive and ignorant, “this guy must know something.” It also means forecasting accuracy is likely lower because it is more clouded, staring at variables as if they are knowns, when in reality they are unknowns because at future time points they are very poorly resolved or not resolved at all.

When it comes to complexity, most often, the simplest explanations are the most accurate ones. 

Ah yes......genius. Don't ever issue a forecast, and you can claim to have "nailed it", while telling everyone who did why they missed it. Lol 

In all seriousness, I agree with a lot of what you are saying and I don't expect anyone to spend the time that I do...truthfully it isn't necessary, but it helps me to learn. All I am saying is that if you are going to be critical of others, at least go on record with something yourself. I will also say, these variable are know when looking in hindsight, which is the value of analogs.

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Ah yes......genius. Don't ever issue a forecast, and you can claim to have "nailed it", while telling everyone who did why they missed it.

Who is claiming to be a genius???...I simply pointed out what has been taking place in the northern hemisphere.