El Nino 2023-2024

[so_whats_happening]

TAO through the 19th every 2 days. 

Edit: Don't mind the hiccup around the 3rd from about the 2nd-4th there were a few buoys missing from the data.

[BlizzardWx]

Is there any work with respect to the location of the initial 10 hPa warming in a SSW and where the cold anomalies eventually settle? It seems as of now the warmest anomalies will focus over east Asia and North America with the remnant of the PV over Europe. 

[so_whats_happening]

Im honestly unsure about this but looking at how things progressed with the early December warming I would presume at 10mb we would want it more over Eurasia versus Kamchatka/ North Pacific. I included 10mb and 50mb animations. Here was the 500mb during that time frame as well of course we don't get to see the moving parts unless we do a daily gif but you kinda get the gist.

[so_whats_happening]

Found this in my bookmarks from sometime ago. Good read.

https://events.ecmwf.int/event/129/contributions/675/attachments/285/540/Stratospheric-WS-Domeisen.pdf

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

Not happening.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

Wow, as @griteaterjust said, this run has by far the weakest SPV/strongest concentration of members with major SSWs of any run for Jan 2-13 with the mean dipping to a mere +3 on Jan 7th vs a climo mean of +33!! The lowest of any day prior to this run was +11 to +12:

 

It’s impossible to count but I bet there are 40+ just for 1/2-9, easily the most yet. I see ~22 that are extreme (sub -15), by a good margin the highest yet.

2/10 on the suprise meter.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

I did a study and posted about it of all major SSWs during El Niños (excluding two in late Feb that were too late to affect met winter) and all were followed starting 1-3 weeks later by a 3-7 week long period dominated by BN temps from the MidAtlantic south while most of them had the BN domination also in the NE US.

Didn't we have this in the 2006-07 winter too?

I am using that as an example where while it didn't snow a lot (and it was during an el nino too) we did have that aforementioned 6-8 week period of cold, did that one occur later than this one is projected to? I remember December and January were both mild and the cold didn't make it here until just before the VD 2007 storm and stuck around long enough for the St Paddys Day 2007 storm, but I remember it was cold well into April too and we had the Tax Day 2007 noreaster in mid April.  The first three weeks of April were colder than the first three weeks of January!  It hit 70 in January but did not in April until the last week!  Our total snowfall was just shy of a foot, but we got a ton of sleet.

What was the lag period in 2006-07 between the SSW and the cold weather arriving?  And that cold period lasted for 60 days?

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

But from MidAtlantic south, where many of us live, it has been no more than slightly warmer than normal MTD. It has felt like a winter month to me with NN here. The SE is likely going to end up NN overall. Nothing warm about that.

Also, fwiw, here's the latest CFS forecast for Jan: blue area is mainly 1-3 F BN and that's based on cooler 1984-2009 climo:

 

I'm not sure how much relevance warmer or cooler than average has when it's actually because of cloud cover, not arctic air.  It can be cooler than average but still not cold enough to snow and especially so if the cool air is because of cloud cover and rain not because there is real arctic air present (which there isn't any-- just look to your source regions, they are burning hot!)

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

good luck lol

 

see my reasoning in my above post, this is not arctic air, it is merely the influence of cloud cover and rainfall.  It's why I don't like talk of  "average temperatures" without further context as to the source regions of where this air is actually coming from-- and it's not the arctic thats for sure lol

 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm not sure how much relevance warmer or cooler than average has when it's actually because of cloud cover, not arctic air.  It can be cooler than average but still not cold enough to snow and especially so if the cool air is because of cloud cover and rain not because there is real arctic air present (which there isn't any-- just look to your source regions, they are burning hot!)

 

Cloud cover /rain theory may work in the summer....may....but cloud cover in the winter maintains higher temps at night and those AN/BN are daily averages. I don't know how many times it has to be posted on this site (mentioned a lot in the MA and NE forums) that Canada can be above normal while below normal in the Conus because Canada normal is very cold in actual temps.

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Cloud cover /rain theory may work in the summer....may....but cloud cover in the winter maintains higher temps at night and those AN/BN are daily averages. I don't know how many times it has to be posted on this site (mentioned a lot in the MA and NE forums) that Canada can be above normal while below normal in the Conus because Canada normal is very cold in actual temps.

But for example, aren't places in southern Canada and the border near northern MN having their warmest December on record? The temps are in the 50s to around 60 there.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Didn't we have this in the 2006-07 winter too?

I am using that as an example where while it didn't snow a lot (and it was during an el nino too) we did have that aforementioned 6-8 week period of cold, did that one occur later than this one is projected to? I remember December and January were both mild and the cold didn't make it here until just before the VD 2007 storm and stuck around long enough for the St Paddys Day 2007 storm, but I remember it was cold well into April too and we had the Tax Day 2007 noreaster in mid April.  The first three weeks of April were colder than the first three weeks of January!  It hit 70 in January but did not in April until the last week!  Our total snowfall was just shy of a foot, but we got a ton of sleet.

What was the lag period in 2006-07 between the SSW and the cold weather arriving?  And that cold period lasted for 60 days?

The major SSW of 2006-7 wasn’t til Feb 24th, too late to affect meteorological winter and thus wasn’t included in those that I looked at.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm not sure how much relevance warmer or cooler than average has when it's actually because of cloud cover, not arctic air.  It can be cooler than average but still not cold enough to snow and especially so if the cool air is because of cloud cover and rain not because there is real arctic air present (which there isn't any-- just look to your source regions, they are burning hot!)

 

 The post I was responding to mentioned how warm Dec has been for the US as a whole anomalywise. My response was to show how the degree of warmth for many who post here regularly will end up unimpressive as the warmest anomalies are elsewhere. That’s especially the case in the SE, where we’re barely AN or NN MTD now and are likely headed to an overall NN Dec. Even way down here in the deep/coastal SE I’ve already had 8 lows in the 30s or lower this month, pretty normal for Dec here. It was 27 yesterday. I didn’t say anything about snow as I was strictly addressing the Dec warmth that had been mentioned. Obviously snow for the east has been largely nonexistent to this point.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

 I don't know how many times it has to be posted on this site (mentioned a lot in the MA and NE forums) that Canada can be above normal while below normal in the Conus because Canada normal is very cold in actual temps.

That’s especially the case the further south one goes, like down in the SE. Looking at some past cold SE winters, much of Canada was AN. If AN or even much AN Canadian air is brought down fast enough and thus not allowing for too much modification before arriving, that air can more easily be BN to even much BN the further south one goes due to warmer normals.

 Check out the average correlation of temperature to a +PNA in DJF for a good illustration. A +PNA is essentially a W to C Canadian block. It being warm vs normal where there’s blocking is common:

 

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Cloud cover /rain theory may work in the summer....may....but cloud cover in the winter maintains higher temps at night and those AN/BN are daily averages. I don't know how many times it has to be posted on this site (mentioned a lot in the MA and NE forums) that Canada can be above normal while below normal in the Conus because Canada normal is very cold in actual temps.

I got 37.1" of snow in a +5.0F winter last year. Temps are not the end all to begin with for people north of 40N. But when it comes to those temp departure maps, people really start to lose focus when getting hung up on departures. When you see Canada reds and southeast blues....its still way colder in Canada than the southeast. Average Jan high/low is 14/0 in Winnipeg, 13/-6 in Saskatoon, 0/-15 in Yellowknife....versus 43/25 in DC, 47/28 in Richmond, 53/33 in Atlanta.

[stadiumwave]

Hmmm

[Snowstorms]

8 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Cloud cover /rain theory may work in the summer....may....but cloud cover in the winter maintains higher temps at night and those AN/BN are daily averages. I don't know how many times it has to be posted on this site (mentioned a lot in the MA and NE forums) that Canada can be above normal while below normal in the Conus because Canada normal is very cold in actual temps.

 

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I got 37.1" of snow in a +5.0F winter last year. Temps are not the end all to begin with for people north of 40N. But when it comes to those temp departure maps, people really start to lose focus when getting hung up on departures. When you see Canada reds and southeast blues....its still way colder in Canada than the southeast. Average Jan high/low is 14/0 in Winnipeg, 13/-6 in Saskatoon, 0/-15 in Yellowknife....versus 43/25 in DC, 47/28 in Richmond, 53/33 in Atlanta.

Canada is NOT cold right now lol. Most major cities are experiencing record breaking warmth this December. Not even 2015 was this warm. And this is "our source region" for cold out east. Most places are near or above freezing. 

See forecasts below for this upcoming week. These cities, more than 90-95% of the time, experience a white Christmas or at the very least some decent cold which is no where to be found this year. If you scroll down you'll find the averages too and will note how incredibly warm it is. 

Calgary, AB: 

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-52_metric_e.html

Edmonton, AB:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html

Regina, SK:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html

Saskatoon, SK:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html

Winnipeg, MB

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html 

Thompson (north Manitoba) 

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-34_metric_e.html

Moosonee, ON (right by Hudson Bay)

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-113_metric_e.html 

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

 

Canada is NOT cold right now lol. Most major cities are experiencing record breaking warmth this December. Not even 2015 was this warm. And this is "our source region" for cold out east. Most places are near or above freezing. 

See forecasts below for this upcoming week. These cities, more than 90-95% of the time, experience a white Christmas or at the very least some decent cold which is no where to be found this year. If you scroll down you'll find the averages too and will note how incredibly warm it is. 

Calgary, AB: 

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-52_metric_e.html

Edmonton, AB:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html

Regina, SK:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html

Saskatoon, SK:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html

Winnipeg, MB

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html 

Thompson (north Manitoba) 

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-34_metric_e.html

Moosonee, ON (right by Hudson Bay)

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-113_metric_e.html 

I was referring more down the road several weeks. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

Hmmm

Can you elaborate lol?

[Snowstorms]

44 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I was referring more down the road several weeks. 

Going to be tough to get any sustained cold/snow out east until Canada doesn't cool down and build up snow cover. December 2006, as an example, was much colder across the entire "source region". And that winter didn't really get started out east until mid-late January 2007. Even Dec 2015 got colder by mid December out west. But current forecast keeps the entire west near/above freezing until the end of the month which is not good. Let's see if we experience a potential pattern change by New years and beyond. But the models continue to pushback the cold and I suspect they will continue to do so until the west cools downs. I don't think any of us will see any sustained winter until mid/late Jan - at least.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I was referring more down the road several weeks. 

Exactly in response to the original poster.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

Going to be tough to get any sustained cold/snow out east until Canada doesn't cool down and build up snow cover. December 2006, as an example, was much colder across the entire "source region". And that winter didn't really get started out east until mid-late January 2007. Even Dec 2015 got colder by mid December out west. But current forecast keeps the entire west near/above freezing until the end of the month which is not good. Let's see if we experience a potential pattern change by New years and beyond. But the models continue to pushback the cold and I suspect they will continue to do so until the west cools downs. I don't think any of us will see any sustained winter until mid/late Jan - at least.

Oh I definitely think Feb is the best month of winter this year, as has been the case often recently. I think too many are confusing a change around new years as meaning arctic cold. No one is saying that. Just get me a more seasonable pattern and im happy. You and I EASILY can get snow in above avg patterns. The midatlantic usually needs some cold, which looks like they may have some colder anomalies. It basically increases snow chances for all while waiting for a deep winter pattern.

[roardog]

30 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh I definitely think Feb is the best month of winter this year, as has been the case often recently. I think too many are confusing a change around new years as meaning arctic cold. No one is saying that. Just get me a more seasonable pattern and im happy. You and I EASILY can get snow in above avg patterns. The midatlantic usually needs some cold, which looks like they may have some colder anomalies. It basically increases snow chances for all while waiting for a deep winter pattern.

Looking at the models, they seem to be honing in on a change to much colder by late next week at least for the Great Lakes area and east.  Most of Canada stays very mild but as the big ridge moves more into central and northwestern Canada, it allows colder air to move into eastern Canada and down into our area. It won’t be anything to write home about but 850 temps even a little below normal around here in late December is quite cold and huge change from what we’ve experienced most of this month.  

[GaWx]

On 12/20/2023 at 3:33 PM, GaWx said:

Wow, as @griteaterjust said, this run has by far the weakest SPV/strongest concentration of members with major SSWs of any run for Jan 2-13 with the mean dipping to a mere +3 on Jan 7th vs a climo mean of +33!! The lowest of any day prior to this run was +11 to +12:

 

It’s impossible to count but I bet there are 40+ just for 1/2-9, easily the most yet. I see ~22 that are extreme (sub -15), by a good margin the highest yet.

Importantly, today’s Euro Weekly 10 mb wind didn’t backtrack from yesterday’s surprisingly (except to @40/70 Benchmark )weak SPV run and still has numerous members with a major SSW Jan 3-6 (more concentrated over shorter interval), which is 13-16 days out. The 2/16/23 major SSW was first strongly honed in on 13 days out for comparison. Once again, note the spike up just before the plunges. Also, I count 12 extreme (sub -15) vs 22 yesterday:

 

[snowman19]

This WWB has trended more impressive….

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This WWB has trended more impressive….
 

Not really and those are VP maps which show the lifting going quickly to 1.

[so_whats_happening]

Such a large difference in 1+2 readings from the several sources:

CDAS or Tropical Tidbits: ~+.6

CRW: ~+1

OISST: ~+1.6

The cooling of 1+2 has not reached region 3 yet but should continue as we move into January. Hovering around 2C for both 3.4 and 3 in most data sets, of course except CDAS data. Nino 4 sitting at about 1.5C. With not much in the pipeline showing up we probably sustain most of these for about another 3 weeks or so and of course depending on equatorial winds we may start the descent into a weakening Nino by mid January on through the rest of winter. Luckily it seems as though we won't fall off a cliff. If the OISST weekly comes in at 2C again we should end the month about 2C which should crest us about 1.9C tri monthly for NDJ, again barring no more cooling occurs.

Really hope we can get a neutral year next year instead of hoping right back into Nina status, which would be rather impressive and the only time this has occurred (not quite in the same manner as this) was in the early 70's.

Hope yall have a good holiday season, may post TAO update after Christmas then.

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This WWB has trended more impressive….
 

There seems to be a built in inertia in our weather patterns the last few years.  Sure, there will be a change to a colder regime but I wouldn't expect anything resembling what we want winter to be until on or after January 20th here.  There is plenty of historic precedence for a turnaround around that date when winters start out mild.

[snowman19]

10 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Not really and those are VP maps which show the lifting going quickly to 1.

@GaWx Pointed this out, but ERSST is running warmer than OISST. IMO it is still very likely we get an official (unrounded) trimonthly super event for NDJ. My guess is +2.1C for the trimonthly average. Also, even on the extreme cold outlier CDAS, regions 3.4 and 3 are warming steadily right now. Would not be surprised to see OISST up over +2.1C today