El Nino 2023-2024

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/12/quiet-mild-christmas-will-transition-to.html

I just read your well detailed outlook, sounds like you agree with many that the real pattern change will happen around or after January 20th and should last through the end of February and perhaps even into early March.  It agrees well with pattern shifts we've seen in the past that last for 6-8 weeks.

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies are just about as active as yesterdays in early Jan with ~18 majors 1/1-9 vs ~19 yesterday. The total run has ~40 vs ~45 yesterday. I counted 9 extremes throughout vs a few more yesterday:

 

 

 Jan 1-8 10 mb temps/hts still looks similar:

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

53 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies are just about as active as yesterdays in early Jan with ~18 majors 1/1-9 vs ~19 yesterday. The total run has ~40 vs ~45 yesterday. I counted 9 extremes throughout vs a few more yesterday:

 

 

 Jan 1-8 10 mb temps/hts still looks similar:

 

What to make of the big positive spike shown at months end before most of those members fall off of the cliff?  That's new.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I just read your well detailed outlook, sounds like you agree with many that the real pattern change will happen around or after January 20th and should last through the end of February and perhaps even into early March.  It agrees well with pattern shifts we've seen in the past that last for 6-8 weeks.

I expect a favorable week or two to kick off the new year mainly due to the Pacific, then a milder stretch before the proverbial hammer drops late January as the SSW propagates.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Another day, another language for @snowman19to tell us winter is over lol

Hopefully for tomorrow's lesson we will learn to say "cold rain" in hieroglyphics.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

What to make of the big positive spike shown at months end before most of those members fall off of the cliff?  That's new.  

 It’s new but the mean still peaks at only +30 m/s vs the climo mean up at 39 m/s. Also, ~5-6 days before both the minor warming of late Jan 2023 (way up at +50 m/s) and the major SSW of 2/16/23 (+30 m/s), there were similar or even stronger spikes.

 Prior to the 1/24/2009 major SSW, the winds spiked way up at 67 m/s 2 weeks prior. Similarly, prior to the 1/28/2010 borderline major SSW, the winds were way up at 60 m/s 18 days earlier as per this link:

https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/12/8115/2012/acp-12-8115-2012.pdf

 So, wind spikes 1-2 weeks prior to SSWs may be common and perhaps normal.

[snowman19]

More evidence that this Nino is about to warm and strengthen further….Per the new CPC MJO update, a strong WWB is developing, MJO constructively interfering with El Niño:

• The MJO remains active, with the enhanced convective phase now over the Pacific, where it
is constructively interfering with the El Niño base state.
• A strong westerly wind burst event is developing over the equatorial Pacific near the Date Line
in response to the MJO-related enhancement.
• The atmospheric response to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole event has strengthened after
being disrupted by the MJO in early December.
• Dynamical model MJO index forecasts show the signal propagating quickly across the
Western Hemisphere during Week-1, returning to the Indian Ocean by Week-2. This evolution
is on the fast end of the MJO spectrum, and may also reflect a further weakening of the IOD
event.
• The MJO may contribute to Pacific TC development during Week-1, with Indian Ocean
development on both sides of the Equator becoming more favorable during Weeks 2-3.
• Pacific MJO events are associated with a pattern change towards increased troughing over
the CONUS during the Weeks 2-3 period; however, given the placement of the strong WWB
near the Date Line, conditions consistent with the ongoing El Niño response seem to be most
likely.

@bluewave They expect MJO forcing to go to the IO in January, so competing forcing with the Nino standing wave. Surprise surprise!

Link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I expect a favorable week or two to kick off the new year mainly due to the Pacific, then a milder stretch before the proverbial hammer drops late January as the SSW propagates.

Thanks-- so that could be 3 MECS for someone or other on the east coast this season?

Also, and this is much further ahead, but do you think we will have a very hot summer, based off of what usually happens in the summers after a strong or super el nino fades?

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave They expect MJO forcing to go to the IO in January, so competing forcing with the Nino standing wave. Surprise

Pretty wild for Queensland to potentially set the new all-time 12 hr rainfall record during an El Niño when the previous record was during the 71-72 La Niña.

 

 

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

More evidence that this Nino is about to warm and strengthen further….Per the new CPC MJO update, a strong WWB is developing, MJO constructively interfering with El Niño:

• The MJO remains active, with the enhanced convective phase now over the Pacific, where it
is constructively interfering with the El Niño base state.
• A strong westerly wind burst event is developing over the equatorial Pacific near the Date Line
in response to the MJO-related enhancement.
• The atmospheric response to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole event has strengthened after
being disrupted by the MJO in early December.
• Dynamical model MJO index forecasts show the signal propagating quickly across the
Western Hemisphere during Week-1, returning to the Indian Ocean by Week-2. This evolution
is on the fast end of the MJO spectrum, and may also reflect a further weakening of the IOD
event.
• The MJO may contribute to Pacific TC development during Week-1, with Indian Ocean
development on both sides of the Equator becoming more favorable during Weeks 2-3.
• Pacific MJO events are associated with a pattern change towards increased troughing over
the CONUS during the Weeks 2-3 period; however, given the placement of the strong WWB
near the Date Line, conditions consistent with the ongoing El Niño response seem to be most
likely.

@bluewave They expect MJO forcing to go to the IO in January, so competing forcing with the Nino standing wave. Surprise surprise!

Link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

If the Federal Government had a nickel for every post you've made with the phrase "constructively interfering " or variation thereof, the national debt would be halved. I just hope this Niño peaks soon or I fear it will constructively interfere with your wedding preparations. 

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

More evidence that this Nino is about to warm and strengthen further….Per the new CPC MJO update, a strong WWB is developing, MJO constructively interfering with El Niño:

• The MJO remains active, with the enhanced convective phase now over the Pacific, where it
is constructively interfering with the El Niño base state.
• A strong westerly wind burst event is developing over the equatorial Pacific near the Date Line
in response to the MJO-related enhancement.
• The atmospheric response to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole event has strengthened after
being disrupted by the MJO in early December.
• Dynamical model MJO index forecasts show the signal propagating quickly across the
Western Hemisphere during Week-1, returning to the Indian Ocean by Week-2. This evolution
is on the fast end of the MJO spectrum, and may also reflect a further weakening of the IOD
event.
• The MJO may contribute to Pacific TC development during Week-1, with Indian Ocean
development on both sides of the Equator becoming more favorable during Weeks 2-3.
• Pacific MJO events are associated with a pattern change towards increased troughing over
the CONUS during the Weeks 2-3 period; however, given the placement of the strong WWB
near the Date Line, conditions consistent with the ongoing El Niño response seem to be most
likely.

@bluewave They expect MJO forcing to go to the IO in January, so competing forcing with the Nino standing wave. Surprise surprise!

Link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

We want the nino to be stronger... given the fact it is in conflict with the pacific base state which will mute the impact of the nino, frankly my bigger worry as we head into the heart of winter is that the nino doesn't have enough influence and we get too much ridging in the central pacific leading to more -PNA than we want in the mid atlantic.  That equation can still work further north of course.  To get the longwave impacts of a moderate nino we probably need the raw SST anomalies to be in the strong bordering on super nino territory given the mitigating factors around it.  The last thing I am worried about wrt a winter fail is that the nino will be too strong.  

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We want the nino to be stronger... given the fact it is in conflict with the pacific base state which will mute the impact of the nino, frankly my bigger worry as we head into the heart of winter is that the nino doesn't have enough influence and we get too much ridging in the central pacific leading to more -PNA than we want in the mid atlantic.  That equation can still work further north of course.  To get the longwave impacts of a moderate nino we probably need the raw SST anomalies to be in the strong bordering on super nino territory given the mitigating factors around it.  The last thing I am worried about wrt a winter fail is that the nino will be too strong.  

this is a tremendous point, and as Bluewave posted earlier, in Australia this is behaving more like a la nina, with the high rainfall totals in Queensland.  We want something more akin to 2015-16.

[Great Snow 1717]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this is a tremendous point, and as Bluewave posted earlier, in Australia this is behaving more like a la nina, with the high rainfall totals in Queensland.  We want something more akin to 2015-16.

As things stand now December is likely to be the warmest December on record in the CONUS.....and it is very likely to be the least "snowiest" white Christmas on record across the CONUS....

Helluva  way to run a winter...

[Great Snow 1717]

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We want the nino to be stronger... given the fact it is in conflict with the pacific base state which will mute the impact of the nino, frankly my bigger worry as we head into the heart of winter is that the nino doesn't have enough influence and we get too much ridging in the central pacific leading to more -PNA than we want in the mid atlantic.  That equation can still work further north of course.  To get the longwave impacts of a moderate nino we probably need the raw SST anomalies to be in the strong bordering on super nino territory given the mitigating factors around it.  The last thing I am worried about wrt a winter fail is that the nino will be too strong.  

...pass 24/7/365 on that...

[GaWx]

50 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

As things stand now December is likely to be the warmest December on record in the CONUS.....and it is very likely to be the least "snowiest" white Christmas on record across the CONUS....

Helluva  way to run a winter...

But from MidAtlantic south, where many of us live, it has been no more than slightly warmer than normal MTD. It has felt like a winter month to me with NN here. The SE is likely going to end up NN overall. Nothing warm about that.

Also, fwiw, here's the latest CFS forecast for Jan: blue area is mainly 1-3 F BN and that's based on cooler 1984-2009 climo:

 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

But from MidAtlantic south, where many of us live, it has been no more than slightly warmer than normal MTD.

Also, fwiw, here's the latest CFS forecast for Jan: blue area is mainly 1-3 F BN and that's based on cooler 1984-2009 climo:

 

good luck lol

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

We want the nino to be stronger... given the fact it is in conflict with the pacific base state which will mute the impact of the nino, frankly my bigger worry as we head into the heart of winter is that the nino doesn't have enough influence and we get too much ridging in the central pacific leading to more -PNA than we want in the mid atlantic.  That equation can still work further north of course.  To get the longwave impacts of a moderate nino we probably need the raw SST anomalies to be in the strong bordering on super nino territory given the mitigating factors around it.  The last thing I am worried about wrt a winter fail is that the nino will be too strong.  

This is what I am banking on in conjunction with the disturbed PV in order to avoid a yet another terd up here....more N stream response than is typical of an el Nino this strong.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

good luck lol

 

Substantive response 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

good luck lol

 

My ignore list just got longer

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

My ignore list just got longer

thank you!..it is an honor to be on your ignore list!!

[griteater]

Holy moly at today’s Euro zonal wind forecast. Paging GaWx 

[GaWx]

Wow, as @griteaterjust said, this run has by far the weakest SPV/strongest concentration of members with major SSWs of any run for Jan 2-13 with the mean dipping to a mere +3 on Jan 7th vs a climo mean of +33!! The lowest of any day prior to this run was +11 to +12:

 

It’s impossible to count but I bet there are 40+ just for 1/2-9, easily the most yet. I see ~22 that are extreme (sub -15), by a good margin the highest yet.

[griteater]

Just now, GaWx said:

Wow, this run has by far the weakest SPV/strongest concentration of members with major SSWs of any run for Jan 2-13 with a dip to a mere +3 on Jan 7th!! 

We said it was put up or shut up time. It put up today! 

[schoeppeya]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

We said it was put up or shut up time. It put up today! 

Y'all have confidence this is going to make its way down to the troposphere?

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Y'all have confidence this is going to make its way down to the troposphere?

I did a study and posted about it of all major SSWs during El Niños (excluding two in late Feb that were too late to affect met winter) and all were followed starting 1-3 weeks later by a 3-7 week long period dominated by BN temps from the MidAtlantic south while most of them had the BN domination also in the NE US.

[griteater]

3 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Y'all have confidence this is going to make its way down to the troposphere?

No, but getting the full blown SSW is step one and better chance for it leading to a more wintry outcome in the E U.S. post SSW compared to when they occur during La Niña 

[griteater]

Piggybacking on the low zonal wind forecast today from the Euro Wk, this is from the UK Met Office GLOSEA 6 model run yesterday...

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Piggybacking on the low zonal wind forecast today from the Euro Wk, this is from the UK Met Office GLOSEA 6 model run yesterday...

 

 From this UKMET ensemble of yesterday, I count 9 of 16 (56%) members with a major SSW just for the period Jan 1-9! Between this and today’s Euro Weeklies, the signal for a major SSW in early Jan, which had already been notable for the last 3 weeks on the Euro, has gotten that much stronger.

[raindancewx]

I've been studying this purple Russia, v. red Canada thing. It's pretty interesting if you roll forward the results in an El Nino. A lot of El Ninos have either the red or the purple in the right place, but not both. 

1965 and 2002 are not horrible matches, but 1997 is a lot closer. Jan-Mar 1998 looks pretty close to what I expected in my analogs for the winter. It's not a particularly cold period, but everyone would have their shots at major storms if you look at the months individually.

 

[so_whats_happening]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

Wow, as @griteaterjust said, this run has by far the weakest SPV/strongest concentration of members with major SSWs of any run for Jan 2-13 with the mean dipping to a mere +3 on Jan 7th vs a climo mean of +33!! The lowest of any day prior to this run was +11 to +12:

 

It’s impossible to count but I bet there are 40+ just for 1/2-9, easily the most yet. I see ~22 that are extreme (sub -15), by a good margin the highest yet.

By far one of the stronger signals I have seen thus far. Lets see if the models are a little too aggressive at first or if this is the right idea.