El Nino 2023-2024

[stadiumwave]

 

Rock & roll! Happy new year!

 

 

[stadiumwave]

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Rock & roll! Happy new year!

 

 

 

Another look. I'm sharing because this is so cool looking! Watch it eat!

 

 

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Rock & roll! Happy new year!

 

 

 Thanks for posting this. In advance of the 2/16/23 major SSW, the GFS op on a number of runs lead the way ahead of ensemble means in suggesting that one was quite possibly on the way.
 
 As far back as 1/31/23, when hardly any of 60 ensemble members showed one, the GFS had this (see orange line): note that there were only 2 (3%) ensemble members weaker:

 

 On 2/2/23, only 3 (5%) ens members were weaker:

 

 Similarly, only 3 (5%) members were weaker than the 2/3/23 GFS and only 5 (8%) members were weaker than the 2/5/23 GFS. 
 
 By the way, the 0Z 12/17 GEFS extended had a mere 2 (6%) with a major SSW, by far the lowest in many runs! However, the 0Z 12/18 GEFS at 384 suggests that it will likely have more major SSWs than 12/17  when the extended comes out tomorrow evening.

[GaWx]

 It now looks like ~Jan 3-6 is becoming the most likely period for any potential major SSW. That would still be 16-19 days out and would be right in the heart of the most favorable QBO east climo portion of winter for one. Thus I’d give it til by this weekend for the models to get more on top of this should it be real. Thus, the trend of the rest of this week’s runs will be quite telling whether it be yes or no. If real, I’d expect to see more op GFS runs from time to time similar to the 18Z from yesterday that was posted as they lead the way in Feb.

 This 6Z 12/18 GEFS 384 looks pretty interesting and more favorable than the comparable map from the 0Z GEFS 12/17 extended released last night:

 

[snowman19]

Weekly update:

Nino 3.4: +2.0C
Nino 3: +2.1C
Nino 4: +1.4C
Nino 1+2: +1.5C

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Weekly update:

Nino 3.4: +2.0C
Nino 3: +2.1C
Nino 4: +1.4C
Nino 1+2: +1.5C
 

 
 Today’s WCS OISST update has 3.4 at +2.03, down from +2.08 yesterday. In order to get an unrounded ONI of +2.00+, I had earlier been figuring that the daily would probably need to peak close to +2.40. However, recently ERSST has actually been as much as 0.10 warmer than OISST. So, that when combined with there having been such a long period hovering near +2.00 tells me that the daily OISST peak may not need to be higher than ~+2.20.
 

 If the Dec ERSST were to again come in warmer than OISST, it could very well end up  in the +2.05 to +2.10 range. Combined with the +2.02 of Nov, that would put ND at +2.03 to +2.06. That would mean Jan could be as low as +1.90 and NDJ still end up +2.00+.

[GaWx]

Latest CFS GLAAM forecast:

 

Compare that to this one from four days earlier: one can see that early Jan has fallen from 1+ to slightly negative

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Latest CFS GLAAM forecast:

 

Compare that to this one from four days earlier: one can see that early Jan has fallen from 1+ to slightly negative

No expert on GLAAM... but a lot of this is driven by the pac jet, no? 

So +GLAAM going towards neutral means that we'll see a bit of a retraction in the pac jet?

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

No expert on GLAAM... but a lot of this is driven by the pac jet, no? 

So +GLAAM going towards neutral means that we'll see a bit of a retraction in the pac jet?

 I’m no expert either. I just know that +GLAAM partially correlates to El Niño/+PNA and -GLAAM partially correlates to La Niña/-PNA/SE ridge. So, as someone in the SE US who prefers the best shot at BN temps and who thus doesn’t like a -PNA/SE ridge, I prefer +GLAAM to -GLAAM in general. El Niño climo ftw. But maybe a moderate +GLAAM vs very strong is generally best for all I know.

 What you said makes sense. A bit less El Niño influence? But the GLAAM drop appears temporary. And this is just the unreliable CFS. So, who knows if the dip will even occur? Who knows if the dip occurs but isn’t so temporary? CFS ensemble not trustworthy, especially over 2 weeks out!

[GaWx]

12/18 Euro Weeklies: again not underneath the red line but still almost as active with ~20% majors 12/31-1/9 (vs 24% yesterday) with 19% of them 1/4-9. I count 9% extreme (sub -15) through the full run vs 15% yesterday. Full run rough estimate: 45% vs ~55% yesterday.
 

 

[griteater]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

No expert on GLAAM... but a lot of this is driven by the pac jet, no? 

So +GLAAM going towards neutral means that we'll see a bit of a retraction in the pac jet?

 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I’m no expert either. I just know that +GLAAM partially correlates to El Niño/+PNA and -GLAAM partially correlates to La Niña/-PNA/SE ridge. So, as someone in the SE US who prefers the best shot at BN temps and who thus doesn’t like a -PNA/SE ridge, I prefer +GLAAM to -GLAAM in general. El Niño climo ftw. But maybe a moderate +GLAAM vs very strong is generally best for all I know.

 What you said makes sense. A bit less El Niño influence? But the GLAAM drop appears temporary. And this is just the unreliable CFS. So, who knows if the dip will even occur? Who knows if the dip occurs but isn’t so temporary? CFS ensemble not trustworthy, especially over 2 weeks out!

We are going thru a period of significant positive E Asian Mtn Torq from roughly Dec 17-27, so yeah, that adds a lot of momentum into the Pac Jet (rising GLAAM), especially when combined with a strong El Nino (too much for E U.S. cold).  Ensembles have that calming down as we close in on the new year and go into early Jan.  Correct that we kind of want the middle ground or light +GLAAM for E U.S. cold.

[GaWx]

 Regardless of whether or not we get an official major SSW, the Euro Weeklies have been quite consistent the last 3 weeks or so for the first week of Jan with a way warmer than normal Arctic and significantly displaced SPV at 10 mb. That’s impressively consistent and persistent implying quite a strong signal with no can kicking whatsoever!

Run from 12/3/23 for 1/1-8/23:

Today’s (12/18/23) run for 1/1-8/23:

[raindancewx]

I'm pretty excited. Going to see back to back wetter than average months locally for the first time since Jan-Apr 2019. 4.5 years+ - what an abomination for consistent moisture.

As far as wildcards for the rest of the winter: Anyone have a read on the volcanic output for the eruption in Iceland? I've always assumed some of the weirdness with the persistent blocking around 2009-10, 2010-11 was tied to the high latitude eruptions up there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_eruptions_of_Eyjafjallajökull

The good news for December is that the temperature correlation nationally looks much less like the -PDO. That's not surprising, the PDO correlation to US temps is weakest in December and March. It's the pretty classic "record Nino 4 warmth" look. It's a correlation of course, so it always comes in a different flavor. I certainly had the US colder than it's been in December, but the relative pattern of hottest v. coldest locals are at least right on my end. We should see more cold expansion in the West with the next wave of wet systems over the next week anyway.

[raindancewx]

I'm seeing people get a bit excited about early January. The colder pattern for the East that we saw in parts of November should cycle through in January. But it's not going to be as early as week one. The simplest issue is this low south of Kamchatka yesterday. That should be between 32-37N, about 105-108W in the time frame of Jan 3-7 using the Bering Sea Rule. Lows that deep tend to force tremendous warmth out ahead of them to the East. It may only be for 1-3 days, but that's a large portion of a week. But these systems are often followed by pattern changes.

More generally, the entire GFS run has the Low north of High low in East Asia look (+WPO). It's difficult to get the Eastern US real cold with that in place. The look below is essentially a giant high over Texas and a giant low over CO or NM pumping up massive heat from the South/MX/TX in between them, and then the whole thing translates East. I have composites of what East Asia looks like ahead of the greatest snow events in NM/CO for the past 50 years or so.

 

[snowman19]

This MJO associated WWB is almost certainly going to warm and strengthen the El Nino further, it actually looks rather healthy now.

@bluewave The never ending saga. As is normal in December, the +IOD has really started to weaken this month and will probably be neutral come late January and of course the WPAC is warming right back up again
 

 

@Gawx The POAMA has finally come back to reality. The new run is showing January at +2.1C now after the outlandish +3.0C readings it had a few months ago. IMO this is definitely possible given the current conditions (WWB/MJO). I think it starts decaying around mid-January

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave The never ending saga. As is normal in December, the +IOD has really started to weaken this month and will probably be neutral come late January and of course the WPAC is warming right back up again

This December is a classic case of competing or overlapping influences enhancing the warmth. Have the very strong to super El Niño combined with the warm MJO 4-7 phases. So the US is set to finish around the 3rd warmest December on record since 1950. Only 2015 and 2021 were  warmer. It’s no surprise 2015 was at the top of the list with the record MJO stall in phase 5. The double digit departures that month were focused in the Northeast.This December the double digit departures are closer to International Falls and Canada. December 2021 was a La Niña and there was a significant stall in MJO 6-7 which really pumped the Southeast ridge. While super El Niños like 1997 and 1982 were stronger than this year, the MJO activity in December wasn’t in the warmer phases which included the Maritime Continent. So while the location of the El Niño warm departures this month we’re classic El Niño, the magnitude of the departures were enhanced by the warm MJO interaction. 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This December is a classic case of competing or overlapping influences enhancing the warmth. Have the very strong to super El Niño combined with the warm MJO 4-7 phases. So the US is set to finish around the 3rd warmest December on record since 1950. Only 2015 and 2021 were  warmer. It’s no surprise 2015 was at the top of the list with the record MJO stall in phase 5. The double digit departures that month were focused in the Northeast.This December the double digit departures are closer to International Falls and Canada. December 2021 was a La Niña and there was a significant stall in MJO 6-7 which really pumped the Southeast ridge. While super El Niños like 1997 and 1982 were stronger than this year, the MJO activity in December wasn’t in the warmer phases which included the Maritime Continent. So while the location of the El Niño warm departures this month we’re classic El Niño, the magnitude of the departures were enhanced by the warm MJO interaction. 

 

 

 

Yea, good post and agreed.

This also bodes well for January IMO, as we all remember the favorable period in January 2016. Of course, if the activity remains south of me again, I'll quit weather, but that is a discussion for another day.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This December is a classic case of competing or overlapping influences enhancing the warmth. Have the very strong to super El Niño combined with the warm MJO 4-7 phases. So the US is set to finish around the 3rd warmest December on record since 1950. Only 2015 and 2021 were  warmer. It’s no surprise 2015 was at the top of the list with the record MJO stall in phase 5. The double digit departures that month were focused in the Northeast.This December the double digit departures are closer to International Falls and Canada. December 2021 was a La Niña and there was a significant stall in MJO 6-7 which really pumped the Southeast ridge. While super El Niños like 1997 and 1982 were stronger than this year, the MJO activity in December wasn’t in the warmer phases which included the Maritime Continent. So while the location of the El Niño warm departures this month we’re classic El Niño, the magnitude of the departures were enhanced by the warm MJO interaction. 

 

 

 

 Regarding the bolded, whereas the current El Niño’s ONI is “very strong to super”, it isn’t when looking at both RONI and MEI as RONI is lower half of strong and MEI is low end moderate at best. But Nino 4 relative to its own climo had been very strong although it has cooled a good bit from its peak.

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Regarding the bolded, whereas the current El Niño’s ONI is “very strong to super”, it isn’t when looking at both RONI and MEI as RONI is lower half of strong and MEI is low end moderate at best. But Nino 4 relative to its own climo is very strong although it has cooled a good bit from its peak.

Perhaps the MEI isn’t suited for El Niños that have the forcing so far west into the MJO 4-7 regions like this December. The VP anomalies for December so far were more intense than 2015, 1997, and 1982. But are of a similar intensity to 1972 displaced much further west. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Perhaps the MEI isn’t suited for El Niños that have the forcing so far west into the MJO 4-7 regions like this December. The VP anomalies for December so far were more intense than 2015, 1997, and 1982. But are of a similar intensity to 1972 displaced much further west. 
 

No question the MEI isn't a good measure of intensity for this event, but I feel the RONI is a decent compromise.

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Perhaps the MEI isn’t suited for El Niños that have the forcing so far west into the MJO 4-7 regions like this December. The VP anomalies for December so far were  more intense than 2015, 1997, and 1982. But are of a similar intensity to 1972 displaced much further west. 
 

Since it covers 150W to 160E, how much of the stronger and further west VP anomalies do you think have been caused by Nino 4 being at such strong levels for it relative to its climo? Per your map, the strongest VPs so far this month have been from 170W to 160E or right over Nino 4.

[bluewave]

44 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Since it covers 150W to 160E, how much of the stronger and further west VP anomalies do you think have been caused by Nino 4 being at such strong levels for it relative to its climo? Per your map, the strongest VPs so far this month have been from 170W to 160E or right over Nino 4.

Yeah, Nino 4 and MJO 7 overlap so the near record SSTs there produce a very warm pattern for the CONUS in December on the El Niño MJO composite.
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

This  is similar to some of the looks on guidance that we get when that ridge begins retrograding.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, good post and agreed.

This also bodes well for January IMO, as we all remember the favorable period in January 2016. Of course, if the activity remains south of me again, I'll quit weather, but that is a discussion for another day.

I wonder if it'll extend into February this time.  We were super close to having a very good February in 2016-- do you remember the storm around the superbowl?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Perhaps the MEI isn’t suited for El Niños that have the forcing so far west into the MJO 4-7 regions like this December. The VP anomalies for December so far were more intense than 2015, 1997, and 1982. But are of a similar intensity to 1972 displaced much further west. 
 

Where do you think this el nino will end up--stronger than 1957-58 but not as strong as 1997-98, 1982-83 or 2015-16?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I wonder if it'll extend into February this time.  We were super close to having a very good February in 2016-- do you remember the storm around the superbowl?

I think it will in general, but probably some pulses in there....I don't expect a standing orgy wave like 2015, but an extended wintry stretch.

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/12/quiet-mild-christmas-will-transition-to.html

[snowman19]

Yeah, Nino 4 and MJO 7 overlap so the near record SSTs there produce a very warm pattern for the CONUS in December on the El Niño MJO composite.
 


 

We are in a never ending loop, relentless. The WPAC is ridiculously warm for a strong/super El Niño and now we are losing the +IOD. So the forcing progression into January leads to this

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

We are in a never ending loop, relentless. The WPAC is ridiculously warm for a strong/super El Niño and now we are losing the +IOD. So the forcing progression into January leads to this

 

Eric shares Roundys composite. Roundys 100 day low pass constructed analog for the same date:

[snowman19]

Still enough warmth in the tank to see a final big spike in temps in regions 3.4 and 3 going into early January with this MJO induced WWB. Still hovering above +2.0C

@40/70 Benchmark Try pressing the “translate to English” option, not that you should really need it if you look at the charts he’s showing