El Nino 2023-2024

[roardog]

The 30 day SOI is at -2.78 now which is kind of crazy for a strong Nino.

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, roardog said:

The 30 day SOI is at -2.78 now which is kind of crazy for a strong Nino.

The current equatorial SOI that @griteater posted the other day, shows that this event is extremely robust and a top tier El Niño, right up there with 72-73, 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16

[roardog]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The current equatorial SOI that @griteater posted the other day, shows that this event is extremely robust and a top tier El Niño, right up there with 72-73, 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16

Yes but the “old” SOI formula doesn’t show that so it’s just more conflicting Enso signals that we’ve become accustomed to with this event.

[GaWx]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s run has the weakest SPV period starting the earliest in many runs and that period starts only 14 days out, the earliest in any run yet. I count ~17% of members with a major SSW just from 12/28 through 1/2, alone! Moving up like that is a pretty big deal. It earlier looked like @40/70 Benchmarkgetting a major SSW in the first of his two weeks was looking very highly unlikely, but this is telling me the latter half of his first week is now back to being very much in the game:
 

Neither last night’s extended GEFS (12/14 run) nor today’s Euro Weeklies (12/15 run) was what I wanted to see as they both suggest a sharp decrease vs earlier runs in the chance for a major SSW anytime soon:

1. Extended GEFS: % of members with major SSW

12/11 run: 48

12/12 run: 32

12/13 run: 29

12/14 run: 23

2. Euro Weeklies:

 After many days showing 45-60%+ of members with a major SSW, today’s suddenly plunged to only ~33%. Yesterday’s was ~50% with a whopping ~17% for 12/28-1/2, alone. Today’s has only 3% for 12/28-1/2! Today’s has 17% for 12/28-1/12 and only 21% through 1/17. The extreme major SSW (sub -15) members stayed ~same with 7% vs 8% yesterday though that was ~17% two runs ago:

[brooklynwx99]

40 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Neither last night’s extended GEFS (12/14 run) nor today’s Euro Weeklies (12/15 run) was what I wanted to see as they both suggest a sharp decrease vs earlier runs in the chance for a major SSW anytime soon:

1. Extended GEFS: % of members with major SSW

12/11 run: 48

12/12 run: 32

12/13 run: 29

12/14 run: 23

2. Euro Weeklies:

 After many days showing 45-60%+ of members with a major SSW, today’s suddenly plunged to only ~33%. Yesterday’s was ~50% with a whopping ~17% for 12/28-1/2, alone. Today’s has only 3% for 12/28-1/2! Today’s has 17% for 12/28-1/12 and only 21% through 1/17. The extreme major SSW (sub -15) members stayed ~same with 7% vs 8% yesterday though that was ~17% two runs ago:

they shouldn’t run these everyday. it’s overkill in my opinion 

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

"could" end up historically strong?

Boy, that's really going out on limb for you. Lol

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

they should run these everyday. it’s overkill in my opinion 

 I assume you meant to say they shouldn’t. I see no problem with every day for both as they help for following trends. I like to see daily updates. Now if they ran, say, 4 times a day, I’d agree with you.

[mitchnick]

42 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Neither last night’s extended GEFS (12/14 run) nor today’s Euro Weeklies (12/15 run) was what I wanted to see as they both suggest a sharp decrease vs earlier runs in the chance for a major SSW anytime soon:

1. Extended GEFS: % of members with major SSW

12/11 run: 48

12/12 run: 32

12/13 run: 29

12/14 run: 23

2. Euro Weeklies:

 After many days showing 45-60%+ of members with a major SSW, today’s suddenly plunged to only ~33%. Yesterday’s was ~50% with a whopping ~17% for 12/28-1/2, alone. Today’s has only 3% for 12/28-1/2! Today’s has 17% for 12/28-1/12 and only 21% through 1/17. The extreme major SSW (sub -15) members stayed ~same with 7% vs 8% yesterday though that was ~17% two runs ago:

And they could just as easily switch back in a day or 2 like they switched today. As consistent as they have been for the past 2 weeks, you'd almost expect it.

 

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And they could just as easily switch back in a day or 2 like they switched today. As consistent as they have been for the past 2 weeks, you'd almost expect ot.

 

 They could since we’re still far enough out in time for that to occur. But by a week from today, the models will know a lot more based on the past. So, say by the 12/21-2 runs, if the runs don’t jump back quite a bit in the weaker direction, I’d then significantly reduce the chances in my mind for an early Jan major SSW. 
 
 I like to give updates, especially those showing significant changes, whether or not it is what I want to see. I don’t want to come across as one who posts either mainly about what I want to happen nor the opposite. I want to come across as one trying to be as objective as possible for credibility reasons.

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Neither last night’s extended GEFS (12/14 run) nor today’s Euro Weeklies (12/15 run) was what I wanted to see as they both suggest a sharp decrease vs earlier runs in the chance for a major SSW anytime soon:

1. Extended GEFS: % of members with major SSW

12/11 run: 48

12/12 run: 32

12/13 run: 29

12/14 run: 23

2. Euro Weeklies:

 After many days showing 45-60%+ of members with a major SSW, today’s suddenly plunged to only ~33%. Yesterday’s was ~50% with a whopping ~17% for 12/28-1/2, alone. Today’s has only 3% for 12/28-1/2! Today’s has 17% for 12/28-1/12 and only 21% through 1/17. The extreme major SSW (sub -15) members stayed ~same with 7% vs 8% yesterday though that was ~17% two runs ago:

 

Good old "MJO confusion" model run to run variability I think. 

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 They could since we’re still far enough out in time for that to occur. But by a week from today, the models will know a lot more based on the past. So, say by the 12/21-2 runs, if the runs don’t jump back quite a bit in the weaker direction, I’d then significantly reduce the chances in my mind for an early Jan major SSW. 
 
 I like to give updates, especially those showing significant changes, whether or not it is what I want to see. I don’t want to come across as one who posts either mainly about what I want to happen nor the opposite. I want to come across as one trying to be as objective as possible for credibility reasons.

I browse this thread and rarely post in it, but I have to say kudos to you and you 100% do come across as that type of poster who is very objective. A few of the other posters in this thread are so biased towards what they want to see that I can be scrolling and just see their user name peak out and before even reading the post i know where it's going. Objective analysis is all I want, and you, @40/70 Benchmark @stadiumwave and a few others provide just that.

[GaWx]

1. This 0Z 12/16 GFS 384 appears to be approaching a major SSW 12/31-1/1 with the SPV down to 65N and a huge high centered over N Canada/AK:

 

2. The 0Z 12/15 GEFS has a similar % of major SSW members to 12/14 for the full run. However, the mean is a bit weaker 1/2-11 due to a sig increase in them 1/2-6 with a whopping 7 majors (23%) just during that period vs only 2 (6%) in the 12/14 run for then. The 23% for 1/2-6 is actually the same as was the case for 1/2-6 on the 12/11 run that had 48% for its full run. The total is 8 (26%) 12/15 vs 7 (23%) 12/14.

[GaWx]

Further to the above 0Z GFS image, the 10 mb at 60N winds (orange) gets down to <8 m/s at end with more drop likely past this. Despite EPS/GEFS runs consistently showing a notable % of members with a major SSW in early Jan, the level of weakness on this GFS is still somewhat of an outlier considering that run’s GEFS mean is at 20 m/s. However, should there really be a major SSW coming near then or soon after, model consensus would be showing this type of thing more often as it gets closer. We’ll know more and more as the coming days of runs are seen:

[snowman19]

Here comes the late December MJO constructive interference/WWB we spoke of at the beginning of this month. While not as impressive as the last WWB/DWKW, this would certainly result in more warming and strengthening in the coming weeks given the OHC and the subsurface warmth it still has to work with
@bluewave

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[raindancewx]

1/6 done with Dec-Feb, and two thirds of the US is +3 to +12. Nothing like 2009 despite months and months of similar forcing maps on here. At a hemispheric level, Alaska has been fairly cold, while nearly all of Canada is running +7 or more above average. Mexico has been fairly cold in the Central Highlands. I mentioned in my outlook that they might have a pretty cold winter down there. Still not expecting any part of the US to finish more than 1F below average for winter, as I had in my outlook. I had the +/-0F line about half way through the yellow area below in both the SW & SE US.

[snowman19]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here comes the late December MJO constructive interference/WWB we spoke of at the beginning of this month. While not as impressive as the last WWB/DWKW, this would certainly result in more warming and strengthening in the coming weeks given the OHC and the subsurface warmth it still has to work with
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

On 12/15/2023 at 4:29 PM, mitchnick said:

And they could just as easily switch back in a day or 2 like they switched today. As consistent as they have been for the past 2 weeks, you'd almost expect it.

 

What he said to a good extent (though not 100% back as weak near New Yr): ~17% major 12/30-1/6 and back up to ~50% full run vs ~33% yest. Sig weaker mid to late Jan. Extreme ~13% vs 7-8% last 2 days and ~17% 3 runs ago. Also, back below red line most of 12/28-1/5!

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

1/6 done with Dec-Feb, and two thirds of the US is +3 to +12. Nothing like 2009 despite months and months of similar forcing maps on here. At a hemispheric level, Alaska has been fairly cold, while nearly all of Canada is running +7 or more above average. Mexico has been fairly cold in the Central Highlands. I mentioned in my outlook that they might have a pretty cold winter down there. Still not expecting any part of the US to finish more than 1F below average for winter, as I had in my outlook. I had the +/-0F line about half way through the yellow area below in both the SW & SE US.

I haven't seen anyone expecting this season to have similar temp anomalies to 2009.  Analogs only have value when used correctly. Clearly the fact that the oceans are so much warmer, most notably the eastern ENSO regions, combined with the -PDO will make a difference. We're also approaching solar max, as opposed to solar min.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

What he said to a good extent (though not 100% back as weak near New Yr): ~17% major 12/30-1/6 and back up to ~50% full run vs ~33% yest. Sig weaker mid yo late Jan. Extreme ~13% vs 7-8% last 2 days and ~17% 3 runs ago. Also, back below red line most of 12/28-1/5!

Yea, I'm convinced this is all just noise, at this point...I have been all in on a SSW since August and that isn't changing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't seen anyone expecting this season to have similar temp anomalies to 2009.  Analogs only have value when used correctly. Clearly the fact that the oceans are so much warmer, most notably the eastern ENSO regions, combined with the -PDO will make a difference. We're also approaching solar max, as opposed to solar min.

Don't forget, I have also pointed out that the forcing is actually a bit WEST of 2009, so there is more Maritime influence at play, which we are seeing this month, as expected. 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't seen anyone expecting this season to have similar temp anomalies to 2009.  Analogs only have value when used correctly. Clearly the fact that the oceans are so much warmer, most notably the eastern ENSO regions, combined with the -PDO will make a difference. We're also approaching solar max, as opposed to solar min.

I think it was probably me that triggered raindance into his ongoing 2 month tirade against 2009.

2009-10 came up as the best match in my analog set, but it still wasn’t a great match. I was clear that 2023-24 is going to be on an island of its own, and that 2009-10 just happened to be the best looking horse out of a poorly matched bunch overall. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I think it was probably me that triggered raindance into his ongoing 2 month tirade against 2009.

2009-10 came up as the best match in my analog set, but it still wasn’t a great match. I was clear that 2023-24 is going to be on an island of its own, and that 2009-10 just happened to be the best looking horse out of a poorly matched bunch overall. 

I mean, remember after the -NAO block at the start of the month, even Eric Webb added it to his list of top analogs. 

This season won't be just like 2009, but take a look at years with similar forcing such as 1986, 1957 and 1965...even 2014....some mild months of December on there.

[GaWx]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

2. The 0Z 12/15 GEFS has a similar % of major SSW members to 12/14 for the full run. However, the mean is a bit weaker 1/2-11 due to a sig increase in them 1/2-6 with a whopping 7 majors (23%) just during that period vs only 2 (6%) in the 12/14 run for then. The 23% for 1/2-6 is actually the same as was the case for 1/2-6 on the 12/11 run that had 48% for its full run. The total is 8 (26%) 12/15 vs 7 (23%) 12/14.

 Although the 0Z 12/16 extended GEFS isn’t quite as active as yesterday’s run overall (7 members/23% vs 8 members/26%), it actually is more active earlier as it has a respectable 5 members (16%) with a major SSW just within the 5 days 12/30-1/3. Yesterday’s had only 3 during 12/30-1/3. The day before had only two for then I believe. Even the big 12/11 run had no more than about the same for then.

 So, look out for the possibility of one within a few days of New Year’s, which as has been mentioned is a climo favored period for QBO east.

 

[griteater]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Although the 0Z 12/16 extended GEFS isn’t quite as active as yesterday’s run overall (7 members/23% vs 8 members/26%), it actually is more active earlier as it has a respectable 5 members (16%) with a major SSW just within the 5 days 12/30-1/3. Yesterday’s had only 3 during 12/30-1/3. The day before had only two for then I believe. Even the big 12/11 run had no more than about the same for then.

 So, look out for the possibility of one within a few days of New Year’s, which as has been mentioned is a climo favored period for QBO east.

 

We're approaching put up or shut up time.  Over this next week should be the time when the zonal wind forecasts collapse lower if we are going to get an official SSW here in early Jan 

[GaWx]

13 hours ago, griteater said:

We're approaching put up or shut up time.  Over this next week should be the time when the zonal wind forecasts collapse lower if we are going to get an official SSW here in early Jan 

I agree. Looking back at the 2/16/23 major SSW (when zonal wind went <0), let’s see how long it took for the bulk of the ensemble members to get clued in. The runs from 2/1/23, 15 days out, still had little clue as a mere 8 of some 60 or so total ens members (only 13%) had a major SSW (though the GFS was strongly hinting at it similar to how a couple of recent GFS runs have already done):
 

 Not til the 2/3/23 runs (13 days out) did the ensembles really seem to be much more onto it:

 

 So, looking ahead to the potential one for early Jan, we’re talking perhaps near Jan 1-3. Jan 1st is still 15 days out while Jan 3rd is 17 days out. If anything, the ensembles are and have been showing a somewhat higher % of members in very early Jan with a major SSW this time than were being shown 15 days prior to the 2/16/23 event. This tells me that we’re still likely ~3-5 days from put up or shut up time. So, I’m thinking we probably have til ~Wed-Fri of this week to finally consistently start seeing a forecasted notable 60N 10 mb wind collapse from, say, near half the members if there really is going to be one in the first few days of 2024. Along with that, perhaps we’d see some GFS runs with majors. If any actual event were to instead not be coming til, say, 1/5-7, we’d then probably have still another week or so (say ~12/25) til put up or shut up time on the models.

[snowman19]

Textbook equatorial “Nino convection” with a strong STJ extending from it. I think it’s safe to say that this event has coupled now

[Typhoon Tip]

15 hours ago, griteater said:

We're approaching put up or shut up time.  Over this next week should be the time when the zonal wind forecasts collapse lower if we are going to get an official SSW here in early Jan 

Mm sudden stress for warming events take place as late as March 1

[griteater]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm sudden stress for warming events take place as late as March 1

Yeah I just meant for this weakening episode in early Jan where the zonal winds are bottoming out.  If not then, it would probably have to be bit down the road, but just speculating 

[WxUSAF]

Steve Milloy ain’t happening 

[GaWx]

On 12/16/2023 at 3:36 PM, GaWx said:

What he said to a good extent (though not 100% back as weak near New Yr): ~17% major 12/30-1/6 and back up to ~50% full run vs ~33% yest. Sig weaker mid to late Jan. Extreme ~13% vs 7-8% last 2 days and ~17% 3 runs ago. Also, back below red line most of 12/28-1/5!

 Though no longer below the red line, don’t fret because today’s update holds onto yesterday’s re-weakening of the SPV. I see ~24% majors 12/31-1/9. That is still 14-23 days out. Keep in mind as per my prior post that 15 days before the 2/16/23 wind reversal only 13% of ens members had a major. They started catching on much better 13 days before it. Thirteen days before 12/31-1/9 isn’t til 12/18-27. So, there’s still plenty of time for the ensembles to more emphatically show it, especially if it were to occur later in the 12/31-1/9 period and especially considering that that entire period is the most prime QBO east major SSW climo. The start of the active period has now gotten to just two weeks out. But I would now like to see the majors start to move to less than two weeks out over the next few days.

 The ens mean still gets down to +12 Jan 1-2, which is a mere 1/3 of climo and which is out 15-16 days. This is near where the mean of the ensembles was 15-16 days before the 2/16/23 major.

  I now count ~55 majors throughout the run vs ~50 yesterday and ~33 two days ago. I count 15 extreme (sub -15) vs 13% yesterday and 7-8% the prior two days: